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Old 08-02-2019, 08:35 AM   #121
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Originally Posted by jcl View Post
I recall working in a shop and changing sparkplugs every year, changing oil and filter every 3000 miles or 3 months, and replacing exhaust systems when they rusted through every couple of years. Thought we should be able to do better. My current vehicle goes 24,000 km between oil and filter changes, has 150,000 km sparkplugs, has a lifetime exhaust system and it isn't unusual, we all think it is pretty normal. We are just seeing the first phase of battery electric vehicle (BEV) development.
The earliest electric cars came out in the 1890s. This first phase sure is taking a long time. Since than we landed astronauts on the moon.
All I ever heard for the last 30 years is the breakthrough is just around the corner. IMHO battery development reached its zenith and it time to think outside of that envelope.
The Chicago suburb we spend our summers there are 71000 inhabitants. At the local Mejers store parking lot Tesla installed, with subsidies from the village a 6 car charging station. On most occasions I see a number of them being charged but never see all six spots occupied.
I will be filling up my Diesel F-250 with 30 gals of fuel and be gone in 15 minutes. Then I go into Mejers do my shopping and as I drive away 45 minutes later the same Teslas are still sitting there charging .
Not for me thank you. Life is too short to be wasting it on charging car batteries to be able to go anywhere.
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Old 08-02-2019, 08:47 AM   #122
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Still, dreaming is good.

All over Earth all my life I rode bicycles.
And I would dream while grinding up some trail, "Wouldn't it be nice to just have a little motor on this thing?"

Now I have a 500Watt/Hour LiFePO4 battery coupled to a 250 Watt motor on a fully suspended carbon fat tire back-to-the-future bike.

Why not a dream truck?
I too enjoy dreaming.
However as long as the EV industry is stuck on battery power it will not reach its potential.
As to an electric bike I believe they are awesome. You don't however depend on it for serous transportation.
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Old 08-02-2019, 09:46 AM   #123
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A very timely article on several subjects here.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news...ionary-storage
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Old 08-02-2019, 10:16 AM   #124
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The earliest electric cars came out in the 1890s. This first phase sure is taking a long time. Since than we landed astronauts on the moon.
All I ever heard for the last 30 years is the breakthrough is just around the corner. IMHO battery development reached its zenith and it time to think outside of that envelope.
The Chicago suburb we spend our summers there are 71000 inhabitants. At the local Mejers store parking lot Tesla installed, with subsidies from the village a 6 car charging station. On most occasions I see a number of them being charged but never see all six spots occupied.
I will be filling up my Diesel F-250 with 30 gals of fuel and be gone in 15 minutes. Then I go into Mejers do my shopping and as I drive away 45 minutes later the same Teslas are still sitting there charging .
Not for me thank you. Life is too short to be wasting it on charging car batteries to be able to go anywhere.

Lithium powered vehicles are the breakthroughs everyone was waiting for. They have only been around for about a decade. In that ten years the range has gone from 50 miles to 380 miles. Battery cost dropped from $1,000 per kWh to $125 per kWh.

Tesla does not get subsidies for charger installations. They pay for them and sometimes pay rent to the owner. However most owners are smart enough to offer the space for free as it attracts customers.

Recharging is mostly done at night so no time is wasted for the 63% of people in the US who can live in single family homes. In fact never having to waste time going to the gas station for daily driving is a big plus to owning an electric vehicle. Most new apartments and condo owners are adding charging options to attract higher end tenants.

BEVs are hear to stay and are growing more and more popular. I like paying ten times less for my fuel. I like never having to go to the gas station for daily driving. I like making most of my fuel from panels on the roof. (Literally driving on sunshine). I like having a roomy four door sedan that can out accelerate a Mustang and get almost three times the equivalent fuel economy of a Prius. I like having brakes that last the life of the vehicle. (105,000 miles on my Model S and brake pads still within the new thickness spec). I like never having to pay for or preform oil changes. I like warming the car up in the winter in the garage without worrying about toxic fumes.
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Old 08-02-2019, 12:12 PM   #125
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Dreaming.
A possible solution is to have a portion of the the battery in the trailer itself.
So part of the battery pack is in the truck/TV and another portion in the trailer. While at it we will use a redesigned trailer frame, stronger, lighter that can hold a few battery packs along the center line. And also a cool inverter to power everything in the trailer along with the ACs.

Why not?


The only place for solar panels in all this will be a on top of the trailer for those special boondocking moments.
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Old 08-02-2019, 12:39 PM   #126
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And we thought diesels had torque

Progress and technology breakthroughs are very hard to predict.

A lot of the stuff we take for granted today were total science fiction in the 1960’s.

Robert A. Heinlien predicted cell phones back in the 60’s. He predicted they would have two rotary dials to be used in the right order to make a call. Close enough.

He also predicted sentient computers (The Moon is a Harsh Mistress). It hasn’t happened yet.
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Old 08-02-2019, 03:04 PM   #127
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I will directly address this one. It would take approximately 320 KWh of battery to tow a 25’ Airstream and family and gear 500 miles. That is a little over three times the capacity of a Tesla Model S or X. The Tesla Semi prototypes can do this now so we know it is possible although not practical.



Battery energy density has been progressing at a rate of 7% per year and prices have dropped form $1,000 per kWh in 2008 to $125 per kWh today. So you would be looking at a $40,000 3,000 lb battery today. In five years that would likely drop to about $10,000 2,000 lb battery and I think that is when we will see an all electric truck under $100,000 that could fully replace a 250/2500 truck.



Also by then we will have a nation wide 800v charging system. The current system is 400v. An 800v system will allow for a charging rate of 320 kw per hour. The charge rate does slow down as the better gets full. So with a 500 mile towing range combined with a 1hr stop for lunch you could tow well over 800 miles.



Starting next year, I think we will see a plug in hybrid from Ford with around 15,000 lb of towing capacity and enough EV range to cover a typical 50 miles of daily driving. This will be the stop gap between iCE and all electric trucks. It will be all electric for daily use and burn fuel for trips and towing. Then in 5-10 years the national fleet will move mostly to all electric. This will happen not because they are much cleaner, but because they will be better at every aspect of driving and towing.


Not sure if I missed this - but wondering what you’re seeing in terms of what powers the chargers? What % of that will be coal vs. renewables? If solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, etc. are the lion’s share of the source, that makes long range electrics the only real choice. If they’re ultimately getting their electric power by coal/fossil fuels and the like, it’s not as attractive to me. What do you think? Thanks!
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Old 08-02-2019, 03:22 PM   #128
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Not sure if I missed this - but wondering what you’re seeing in terms of what powers the chargers? What % of that will be coal vs. renewables? If solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, etc. are the lion’s share of the source, that makes long range electrics the only real choice. If they’re ultimately getting their electric power by coal/fossil fuels and the like, it’s not as attractive to me. What do you think? Thanks!
It will be a mix with natural gas for a long time but coal is fading faster (even if we have a lot of it). But natural gas is about the cleanest (from a GHG standpoint) of the fossil fuels. You do not have to remove all fossil fuels for the grid to be greener than current automotive emissions, just a lot of them. Nuclear will be a part of the mix for the foreseeable future as well.

If you have never seen the Livermore energy (not just electricity) flow charts, you should take a look. Here is the 2018 one. https://flowcharts.llnl.gov
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Old 08-02-2019, 04:43 PM   #129
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Not sure if I missed this - but wondering what you’re seeing in terms of what powers the chargers? What % of that will be coal vs. renewables? If solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, etc. are the lion’s share of the source, that makes long range electrics the only real choice. If they’re ultimately getting their electric power by coal/fossil fuels and the like, it’s not as attractive to me. What do you think? Thanks!
Coal is now less than 30% and dropping fast. Natural gas which is far cleaner than coal is about 60 %. Renewables at about 2% and rising fast. Hydro, nuclear make up the rest.
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Old 08-02-2019, 04:46 PM   #130
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It will be a mix with natural gas for a long time but coal is fading faster (even if we have a lot of it). But natural gas is about the cleanest (from a GHG standpoint) of the fossil fuels. You do not have to remove all fossil fuels for the grid to be greener than current automotive emissions, just a lot of them. Nuclear will be a part of the mix for the foreseeable future as well.

If you have never seen the Livermore energy (not just electricity) flow charts, you should take a look. Here is the 2018 one. https://flowcharts.llnl.gov

Charging from the average grid in the US (covers 90+% of the population) an electric vehicle is now cleaner than any vehicle ICE that gets less than 73 mpg.
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Old 08-02-2019, 04:49 PM   #131
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Coal is now less than 30% and dropping fast. Natural gas which is far cleaner than coal is about 60 %. Renewables at about 2% and rising fast. Hydro, nuclear make up the rest.
Renewables at about 2% and rising fast?? And your prediction for the future for the afore mentioned tow vehicle"pulling a large TT with practical range, towing capability, and an affordable price tag" is when? Today's carbon based vehicles used for the majority of hauling heavy loads long distances is going to be here a lot longer than we are, I predict...but, hey, hope I am wrong.
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Old 08-02-2019, 05:09 PM   #132
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Like I said Dream on. .
The Earth doesn't have enough surface area available to build solar those monstrous solar farms that would be needed to replace the current energy needs. And there are those pesky sunsets to deal with.
The area needed to produce enough electricity to replace all of the energy used in the world is about 43,000 square miles, or 1% of the area of the Sahara Desert.

See: We Could Power The Entire World By Harnessing Solar Energy From 1% Of The Sahara

For the USA the area needed would look like this:

(from https://www.freeingenergy.com/how-mu...power-the-u-s/)

There are lots of places we can put solar panels that are currently unused. Next time you fly take a look at all of the large industrial buildings with nothing on their roofs. Relatively few houses have panels on their roofs. Panels are so cheap now that when they install them on a house they face them in all directions. Reservoirs can be covered with floating solar panel structures which reduces evaporation.

There are other challenges in switching to renewable electric power, but space for solar panels is not one of them.
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Old 08-02-2019, 05:46 PM   #133
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Renewables at about 2% and rising fast?? And your prediction for the future for the afore mentioned tow vehicle"pulling a large TT with practical range, towing capability, and an affordable price tag" is when? Today's carbon based vehicles used for the majority of hauling heavy loads long distances is going to be here a lot longer than we are, I predict...but, hey, hope I am wrong.
You are mixing up battery electric vehicles, and power generation. BEVs can become a big part of the mix, with significant benefits, even if they are charged up with power from a mix of fuel types. There are large efficiency improvements, as supported by the point noted above that a battery electric vehicle, today, recharged from today's grid, is as efficient as a hypothetical vehicle getting 73 mpg.

And as the grid is improved, the gains just increase.
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Old 08-02-2019, 07:58 PM   #134
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Renewables at about 2% and rising fast?? And your prediction for the future for the afore mentioned tow vehicle"pulling a large TT with practical range, towing capability, and an affordable price tag" is when? Today's carbon based vehicles used for the majority of hauling heavy loads long distances is going to be here a lot longer than we are, I predict...but, hey, hope I am wrong.
As I clearly stated before, in about five years.
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Old 08-02-2019, 08:30 PM   #135
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Knowledgeable, well spoken members have developed this into a fascinating and informative discussion. Thanks to all for sharing.

Cheers,
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Old 08-03-2019, 06:34 AM   #136
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The earliest electric cars came out in the 1890s. This first phase sure is taking a long time. Since than we landed astronauts on the moon.
All I ever heard for the last 30 years is the breakthrough is just around the corner. IMHO battery development reached its zenith and it time to think outside of that envelope.
The Chicago suburb we spend our summers there are 71000 inhabitants. At the local Mejers store parking lot Tesla installed, with subsidies from the village a 6 car charging station. On most occasions I see a number of them being charged but never see all six spots occupied.
I will be filling up my Diesel F-250 with 30 gals of fuel and be gone in 15 minutes. Then I go into Mejers do my shopping and as I drive away 45 minutes later the same Teslas are still sitting there charging .
Not for me thank you. Life is too short to be wasting it on charging car batteries to be able to go anywhere.
Obviously the timeline for going to the moon has nothing to do with technology development. The 1890s electric research doesn’t even compare with what’s going on today. Technology development is not linear. This means more will happen in 5 years than happened in the last 100. You might think people are wasting time “charging car batteries” but they are probably half your age and may think it’s stupid to spend $80 filling your diesel truck every 3 days to go to Meijer when they can do the same thing with $2 worth of electricity. I have a big diesel truck too, it sits in the garage 95% of the time. It’s great for camping but I’m not gonna rack up miles taking it to the grocery store.

Things change. Rotary phones and 1972 Buicks were cool but we don’t have time to sit there dialing or messing with carburetors anymore. Going to the moon was cool but that 1950s technology is long gone. Thank goodness the people who developed that stuff are retired or we’d still be using slide rules and designing things on a drafting board.
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Old 08-03-2019, 06:56 AM   #137
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Dreaming.
A possible solution is to have a portion of the the battery in the trailer itself.
So part of the battery pack is in the truck/TV and another portion in the trailer. While at it we will use a redesigned trailer frame, stronger, lighter that can hold a few battery packs along the center line. And also a cool inverter to power everything in the trailer along with the ACs.

Why not?


The only place for solar panels in all this will be a on top of the trailer for those special boondocking moments.
Trailers and RVs are leisure vehicles. I don’t think it really matters what we use to pull them. The vast majority of vehicle miles are used for commuting, and that is where technology is concentrating electric development. There might never be a BEV solution for camping or hauling. Who cares?

I noticed the fire truck I drove last week actually uses DEF and regenerates. Seems ridiculous to worry about pollutants from a vehicle used to put out fires, yet we still have pollution controls on them. Why???
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Old 08-03-2019, 08:20 AM   #138
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It would take only a small amount (relatively) of land to meet the US needs with solar power as they would be supplemented by batteries and pumped hydro. I am a huge fan of nuclear but they are simply too capital intensive in their current form.
You are beyond dreaming now you are hallucinating.
I love science fiction too btw.
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Old 08-04-2019, 08:23 AM   #139
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Obviously the timeline for going to the moon has nothing to do with technology development. The 1890s electric research doesn’t even compare with what’s going on today. Technology development is not linear. This means more will happen in 5 years than happened in the last 100. You might think people are wasting time “charging car batteries” but they are probably half your age and may think it’s stupid to spend $80 filling your diesel truck every 3 days to go to Meijer when they can do the same thing with $2 worth of electricity. I have a big diesel truck too, it sits in the garage 95% of the time. It’s great for camping but I’m not gonna rack up miles taking it to the grocery store.

Things change. Rotary phones and 1972 Buicks were cool but we don’t have time to sit there dialing or messing with carburetors anymore. Going to the moon was cool but that 1950s technology is long gone. Thank goodness the people who developed that stuff are retired or we’d still be using slide rules and designing things on a drafting board.
You are hyperventilating dude.
One thing hasn't changed since the advent of Electrically driven vehicles around 1890 is the over hype and scam artist in the industry. You might want to spend some time reading about and educate yourself. Once the Internal Combustion vehicles hit their stride the EV industry collapsed and has never recovered. What there is today exist only because of the immense climate hoax and heavy subsidies.
Electric vehicles have their uses. If I only drove to the grocery store and the bingo hall once a week I might consider one. However even with that I can by a small IC car for half of what a comparable EV and will only fill tank twice a month.
And since I pull a 10k lbs Airstream my big honking F-250 diesel is perfect for the job. Additionally I truly enjoy driving it especially in heavy traffic on 290 around Chicago. Hell I even enjoy driving it 3 miles to the grocery store.
I look at batteries in electric vehicles as fuel tanks. It takes you 8 hours to fill it and gets you down the road 150 miles. My truck fills up in 15 minutes gets me down the road 450 miles pulling a trailer.
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Old 08-04-2019, 10:03 AM   #140
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You are hyperventilating dude.
One thing hasn't changed since the advent of Electrically driven vehicles around 1890 is the over hype and scam artist in the industry. You might want to spend some time reading about and educate yourself. Once the Internal Combustion vehicles hit their stride the EV industry collapsed and has never recovered. What there is today exist only because of the immense climate hoax and heavy subsidies.
Electric vehicles have their uses. If I only drove to the grocery store and the bingo hall once a week I might consider one. However even with that I can by a small IC car for half of what a comparable EV and will only fill tank twice a month.
And since I pull a 10k lbs Airstream my big honking F-250 diesel is perfect for the job. Additionally I truly enjoy driving it especially in heavy traffic on 290 around Chicago. Hell I even enjoy driving it 3 miles to the grocery store.
I look at batteries in electric vehicles as fuel tanks. It takes you 8 hours to fill it and gets you down the road 150 miles. My truck fills up in 15 minutes gets me down the road 450 miles pulling a trailer.
You need to read some updated information on charging time and range. Much of that updated info is in this thread. The EV industry collapsed because they were using poor batteries. Battery technology has improved at a much more rapid rate than the ICE technology. You do not have to own one if you do not want (I don't own one, either) but to deny that they are the future is just silly IMHO (and I do this for a living).
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