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Old 07-28-2019, 08:22 AM   #61
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And we thought diesels had torque

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Originally Posted by Daquenzer;
I just hope all you Tesla owners are not surprised when Tesla goes broke. Stock is down $100 per share. It is P/E is totally out of whack. And investors want 10% on their bonds. And if their share price drops further watch that bond price skyrocket. They won’t be able to cash flow anything. Tesla will go the way of the rambler.
Yeah definitely a lot of eyes on their financials. They did end the quarter with over $5B in cash or cash equivalents so they have a runway yet.

It’s also important to recall that GM and Chrysler both failed and went bankrupt in 2009, but they are still here and are doing fine again.

If there is continued downward pressure on their stock price I would suspect M&A talks would begin as market cap declines. Too much IP and brand value to go extinct, perhaps.

Time will tell.
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Old 07-28-2019, 09:19 AM   #62
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The article leaves out PHeVs and global market. Lots of misinformation out there, from people who have to guess what’s going on in the industry from what the media puts out.
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Old 07-28-2019, 02:39 PM   #63
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I may be the world’s only non-treehugger that thinks EVs are cool.
No. I can think of at least one more here in GA.
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Old 07-28-2019, 03:37 PM   #64
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Yeah definitely a lot of eyes on their financials. They did end the quarter with over $5B in cash or cash equivalents so they have a runway yet.

It’s also important to recall that GM and Chrysler both failed and went bankrupt in 2009, but they are still here and are doing fine again.

If there is continued downward pressure on their stock price I would suspect M&A talks would begin as market cap declines. Too much IP and brand value to go extinct, perhaps.

Time will tell.
The big 3 were bailed out because of how many people they employed. I seriously doubt Tesla will be bailed out. My guess is it is more likely someone like Apple or one of the Big 3 buy them out and at a fraction of the stock price right now. They do have a good product from what I understand. But they just can’t cash flow.

I think EV’s are here to stay. Don’t misunderstand. But at this point they are not going to be competitive with existing vehicles with regard to price. And that could be awhile off; probably 20 years. I just read that millennials can’t afford houses. Lowest house ownership ever in 30 years for that age group. Significant angst about this. So unless something major happens I doubt they are going to spend $15,000 more for a vehicle to drive around in. And they are going to be the future of EV consumers.
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Old 07-29-2019, 06:23 AM   #65
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I love our EV. Can't wait to replace out Tundra with one.

Another interesting thing I love about EV is regenerative braking. I just let my foot off the gas and the car starts to slow creating electricity from the momentum and recharging the battery. So instead of taking that energy and clamping down to make friction with brakes, it recycles it.

So imagine towing vehicle pulling 5,000lbs Airstream. Some of that momentum can be recycled to put back into electricity. Yes, I know it won't be perfectly efficient but any chance to spend less on brake pads is a good thing IMO.
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Old 07-29-2019, 10:44 AM   #66
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I love our EV. Can't wait to replace out Tundra with one.

Another interesting thing I love about EV is regenerative braking. I just let my foot off the gas and the car starts to slow creating electricity from the momentum and recharging the battery. So instead of taking that energy and clamping down to make friction with brakes, it recycles it.

So imagine towing vehicle pulling 5,000lbs Airstream. Some of that momentum can be recycled to put back into electricity. Yes, I know it won't be perfectly efficient but any chance to spend less on brake pads is a good thing IMO.
I can't Imagine that yet...not sue if/when they would be efficient enough to tow an AS a decent amount of miles (250+) to make the switch and at what cost for the TV: $100K? Just saying, commuting is one thing; planning a vacation or trip pulling an AS is a ways off, as others have said...not that I don't want to see it but at what "cost"? $$?
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Old 07-29-2019, 11:39 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by Daquenzer View Post
The big 3 were bailed out because of how many people they employed. .
I don't believe Ford was bailed out. Ford seemed to have their act together.

The GM bailout was a SOP to the union at the expense of the bond holders.

but I digress....
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Old 07-29-2019, 11:48 AM   #68
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I can't Imagine that yet...not sue if/when they would be efficient enough to tow an AS a decent amount of miles (250+) to make the switch and at what cost for the TV: $100K? Just saying, commuting is one thing; planning a vacation or trip pulling an AS is a ways off, as others have said...not that I don't want to see it but at what "cost"? $$?
I don't have any trouble imagining it. Neither do Ford (F150 EV coming) or Rivian.

As for what is available today, read about a Tesla X and a Sport 22 with 4500 GVWR. No, not 5000, and only 145 miles towing that weight, not 250. Development is happening very quickly though.

http://www.airforums.com/forums/f463...-x-160951.html
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Old 07-29-2019, 11:54 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by Andy R View Post
I love our EV. Can't wait to replace out Tundra with one.

Another interesting thing I love about EV is regenerative braking. I just let my foot off the gas and the car starts to slow creating electricity from the momentum and recharging the battery. So instead of taking that energy and clamping down to make friction with brakes, it recycles it.

So imagine towing vehicle pulling 5,000lbs Airstream. Some of that momentum can be recycled to put back into electricity. Yes, I know it won't be perfectly efficient but any chance to spend less on brake pads is a good thing IMO.
All of this technology is evolving pretty quickly. The main thing is battery technology. As the technology improves, charge times will get shorter and prices will come down. For example, the traction batteries in Toyota hybrids is now considered a "lifetime component". Not that they last forever, but you don't have to plan on it having to replaced at intervals.

Regenerative braking has been around for years in industrial applications. Now with better battery technology and computers to control charge/discharge rates it has a very practical application in EV's and gas-electric hybrids. In effect you're recapturing energy that would otherwise be dissipated in the brake pads/rotors. It makes a big difference.

My wild guess is we're only about 5 years away from affordable electric vehicles that are practical for more than urban commuting. Lets check back in 5 years to see if I'm right :-)
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Old 07-29-2019, 01:43 PM   #70
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The main problem with these electric Vehicles is the amount of fossil fuels burned to produce the electricity to charge them causes more pollution than just burning the fuel in the vehicle.
Converting coal into steam, into AC electricity, into DC electricity there is a loss.
I’m all for it and hope one one they can get the charging and range figured out but, we are not there yet.
Actually on the dirtiest coal fired grid in the US, a internal combustion vehicle would have to get better than 42 mpg to be as clean as a battery electric car charged offf of that grid. In the US, the average grid is much cleaner and the average ICE vehicle would have to get over 73 mpg. In the cleanest grids like the north west and California that number jumps to over 90 mpg.

Also coal is now less that 30% of the US grid and falling. However, coal is dying due to cost, not pollution that it cause. Solar is now the cheapest form of power generation in the US.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news...rid-data-shows
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Old 07-29-2019, 01:45 PM   #71
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Agree, but your going to start a whole bunch of static when you tell folks that! And then there is the age old question of disposing of the depleted batteries when you change vehicles or replace the batteries... From what I have read, the "load" will quickly deplete the charge; not sure I would consider going on a trip with my Airstream having to stop every 100-200 miles for a charge...so now your talking about larger batteries, and perhaps even renting two electric camp sites; one for your RV and one for your TV! Nothing wrong with the forward thinkers, I'm just not there yet! 400 miles between fill ups and having fuel stations most everywhere we travel makes the trip much less stressful...but that's just my thinking.
Batteries will be recycled just like the far more toxic Lead acid batteries used in every ICE car on the road. The materials in the batteries are expensive and worth recycling.
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Old 07-29-2019, 01:50 PM   #72
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I just hope all you Tesla owners are not surprised when Tesla goes broke. Stock is down $100 per share. It is P/E is totally out of whack. And investors want 10% on their bonds. And if their share price drops further watch that bond price skyrocket. They won’t be able to cash flow anything. Tesla will go the way of the rambler.
Many people have said that for about 12 years now...
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Old 07-29-2019, 01:58 PM   #73
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I don't believe Ford was bailed out. Ford seemed to have their act together.

The GM bailout was a SOP to the union at the expense of the bond holders.

but I digress....
I agree Ford wasn't bailed out; Just GM and Chyrsler.

Yet let's look at the stock for Ford, GM, and Chrysler.

Ford stock has declined in the last 5 years from around $17 a share to about $9.50 a share. GM stock has gone from around $34 a share to about $40.70 in 5 years. Not very good performance by the way. While Chrysler/Fiat as moved from about $6 to $14. Better performance, but it tells you their earnings stink if the stock is priced at $14.

Ford should have taken the bailout.

My second point is that it is going to take massive amounts of capital to research, develop, market, and then make a profit on EV's. GM may be in better position to raise capital due to stock price. Ford not so much. In fact Ford's stock is going down precisely because of lack of profits. They can't even make a profit on their existing vehicles! Chrysler's stock is at least going up. But they are looking to go in partnership with PSA. Makes sense, why start from ground zero.

"No single car manufacturer alone can afford the sheer size of investments needed to develop platforms for the kind of smart, hybrid and connected vehicles that will hit the road in coming years," said Carlo Alberto Carnevale Maffe, a professor at Bocconi University in Milan. "Talks between PSA and FCA, as well as the one by BMW and Daimler, are a clear sign that the industry needs to find a new equilibrium of competition on final products and services, leveraging on inevitable cooperation in technology development and supporting infrastructures."

Point: There needs to be massive infusions of capital into the EV scenario. Tesla has invested and lost money at a frightening pace. Neither Ford, GM, or Chrysler can afford that scenario. This will mean a very cautious approach and we are likely to see EV's only at very high cost to the consumer. It can't just be "cool" technology. It has to be profitable technology. And we aren't there yet and Tesla can attest to it.

No way that EVs will be the car 5 years from now. Not a chance. Not enough capital. Not enough profitability.
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Old 07-29-2019, 02:08 PM   #74
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I would also point out that Ford is going to release a plug In hybrid F150 late next year. I know from a little bit of inside info that it will likely have over 500 hp and 600 ft-lb of torque and will have the highest towing capacity of any 1/2 ton by a significant margin.

Take a look at the for the coming Lincoln Aviator for ideas...
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Old 07-29-2019, 04:39 PM   #75
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Got it so I should sell all my cars and trucks with their built in and paid for carbon footprint and by new EVs. Wait they don’t make a 1 ton EV or a track ready sports car and the SUV choices aren’t high performance or handling as the Audi isn’t being delivered.

Ooh well guess I’ll keep what I have and enjoy them for their specific purposes. And where I live there is limited infrastructure anyway and the range in the mountains isn’t so great.

On a serious note we’ll see better options coming over the next 5 years both electric and fuel cell. And my personal prediction is Tesla is not a survivor but clearly a thought leader.
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Old 07-29-2019, 04:49 PM   #76
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No way that EVs will be the car 5 years from now. Not a chance. Not enough capital. Not enough profitability.
Already in development, and many suppliers working on them also. Change is exponential, not linear. They won’t replace other drive systems but will be quite common in 5 years.
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Old 07-29-2019, 05:03 PM   #77
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Got it so I should sell all my cars and trucks with their built in and paid for carbon footprint and by new EVs. Wait they don’t make a 1 ton EV or a track ready sports car and the SUV choices aren’t high performance or handling as the Audi isn’t being delivered.

Ooh well guess I’ll keep what I have and enjoy them for their specific purposes. And where I live there is limited infrastructure anyway and the range in the mountains isn’t so great.

On a serious note we’ll see better options coming over the next 5 years both electric and fuel cell. And my personal prediction is Tesla is not a survivor but clearly a thought leader.
I own a Tesla Model S and a Model 3. They are hands down the best cars I have ever owned. I have always been a gear head and mostly a truck guy. I am glad they are a much cleaner car, but to be honest that is not why I bought them. I simply like good performance oriented cars. The fact that the fuel is about ten times less expensive is not a horrible thing either.

Between 2011 and 2012 I converted a 1974 VW Thing to electric drive. It only had 90hp and 110 ft-lb of torque and a range of about 90 miles, but it was literally the most fun I have ever had driving any car I have owned including Mustangs, Porsches and Corvettes. That got me to look into the Tesla's and I simply loved the cars not because of the "Greeness" or the "Cool" factor, but simple because they are so much fun to drive.

I do have a deposit on a Rivian Truck, but I suspect that the 2021 F150 Hybrid will be my next truck. All of the good of an electric drive (Instant torque, excellent down hill regenerative braking, etc) combined with a gas engine to have unlimited range.

I think pure electric trucks are about 5 years into the future before they can truly compete with Gas and Diesel trucks.

If any one is interested in seeing the Electric VW Thing you can see it here:

www.EVThing.me
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Old 07-29-2019, 06:40 PM   #78
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Electric is the way to go. Locomotives and mining haul trucks are powered by diesel electric. The more power you need the more electric becomes economical. Here's the problem. If you want to travel from NY to Fl the charge time will add 9 hours to your 20 hour trip.
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Old 07-29-2019, 06:46 PM   #79
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Very cool sranger. I drove a converted pickup for a couple years in ‘05-‘’06. Cheapest ride to work I ever had. Got used to the gloom and doom “you’ll crash the grid”, “those batteries are poison”, “they should tax you by the mile” blah blah blah while gas went to $5. Converted the house to cfl bulbs (more gloom and doom blah blah blah) and basically drove for free. Owned a bunch of stinky diesels too, had folks really confused. Fuel prices are cheap now but if they hit $6 I know just what to do.
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Old 07-29-2019, 07:15 PM   #80
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Electric is the way to go. Locomotives and mining haul trucks are powered by diesel electric. The more power you need the more electric becomes economical. Here's the problem. If you want to travel from NY to Fl the charge time will add 9 hours to your 20 hour trip.
I have driven my Model S across country a few times. I once drove from Atlanta to Yosemite and back in two weeks. This was before the Tesla Supercharging network was complete. One the first day I drove from Atlanta to Texas (900 mies) in 19 hr. Typically charging does add about 1hr per 400 miles or so.

People often ask how much time it added to stop to charge. On the trip out I was with my nephew and to be honest we were usually ready to go about 5-15 minutes before the car charged enough for the next 200 miles or so. He is a park ranger and had a summer job in Yosemite. So in that direction it added an honest 1-2hr for the roughly 500 miles a day we drove. (If you ever get a chance to visit National Parks with a park Ranger I highly recomend it!!!)

During the trip we saw 5 national parks, two state parks and one national museum (Route 66). It was the best trip I have ever had.

On the way back, my wife flew out and I met her in Las Vegas. On the return trip I NEVER got her back in the car before it was charged for the next 200 miles, You see Tesla is evil and puts many of the supercharger in mall and sporting goods stores like Cabalas parking lots. (Most expensive free fuel stop ever!)

So when people ask I say it cost you about 1-2 hr per day when traveling alone or zero extra time when the wife and or kids go along with you.

Seriously, stoping for a 30-45 minute charge every 200 miles or so is not really a big deal. In the past I would drive as long I could stand it and arrive exhausted. Now I arrive refreshed and in good spirits now that I have to stop every two or three hours to take a break and charge.

On a fun note I recently drove my Model 3 (325 mies of range) from Atlanta to Orlando. It is about 430 miles and it took me the exact same time it would in any other vehicle. I stoped for about an hour in Tiffton to charge while I was eating lunch. Car was charged before I finish eating. I stoped in Lakeland to use the bathroom and charge. It was ready for the last hop to Orlando before I was done using the restroom and finding some ice cream. I drove to the hotel who had a free valet destination charger for the Teslas. My co-worker left the same time I did. He was with his wife, they got there an hour after I arrived.
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