Beginning of the end?

[flitzwhopper]

Whilst in graduate school thirty years ago, my wacky roomate pressed on me the awareness of Hubbert's peak. We were both scientists at the time. I was and still am skeptical about the most dire predictions but the general ethic put forward changed how I planed my life out.
Over the years my friends and coworkers cashed in and got bigger houses farther away from work and at the same time got bigger cars with poor gas milage. They bought big heavy RV's that were more like rolling monumnets. More than once Donna and I questioned our minimalist lifestyle and modest participation in the consumer culture. Donna works a mile away from our residence so she drives the Hemi. I live five miles away from work and drive the Lancia which gets 20mpg. As fuel costs take a larger and larger chunk out of our friends take home, we have been less affected.
When we got the Hemi, it was the set up for getting an airstream. We looked hard at the late models. The difference between 5500lbs and 4000lbs became very meaningful for our intentions to do a lot of camping. Hence the decision to purchase a vintage model. I'm exploring methods of lightening up twinkerbell - our 76 Argosy. Carbon fiber to replace the heavy parts but the Argosy is pretty light weight already.
So we have been planing for this time of our life and won't be letting gasoline ruin our fun. Besides, back and forth to yellowstone with the twink is still cheaper than most of the alternatives.

[n2916s]

With India and China both ramping up to put their billions of citizens fully into the hydrocarbon intense modern era, the days of cheap gas, IMHO, are gone for good. Demand is very near to exceeding supply and we all know what that means...

Of course, our gallant leaders leaped right into ethanol as a stopgap. Except, of course, that the ethanol is coming from corn which is causing a rise in food prices. Ouch. When cellulosic ethanol becomes widely available, then we may say some real benefits.

All that being said:

Last year we spent 6 months on the road, traveled a bit more than 16k miles (towing and side trips ) and burned 1288 gallons of fuel at an average cost of $2.98 a gallon ($3850 total).

This year we are getting out late (minor medical probs) so will probably travel half the distance over maybe 4 months with fuel probably around $4 (maybe more). So figure 650 gallons costing $2600 +/-.

Even if we were going to recreate last years trip, it would cost maybe $1300 to $1600 more than last year, or a couple hundred bucks a month.

That is not onerous enough to keep us home. May have to buy cheaper beer but I drink too much anyway....

mike

[ArtStream]

Originally Posted by lovingtahoe

Dollar's fall forces new standard of frugality

Great article in this morning's paper. I think some very good things will come out of this mess. One being that Americans will learn how to be more appreciative of the non-material things... such as camping with the family instead of shopping on the weekends and buyimg more crap.

Thanks for the link, interesting article!

Michael

[argy]

Just returned from a ten day 2100 mile trip to Arches, Canyonlands and Mesa Verde. I get about 9.5 mpg in the MH. Total trip cost $810. (Don't include food since that's the same as at home.) At $81 per day, it's still a pretty inexpensive way to travel and we have all our comforts.

[StreamNTyme]

I heard this morning they "project" gas to rise to $200. barrel in the next year.

We have tons of our own fuel in many areas the environmentalists will not allow us to tap .

As long as we are dependent on foreign oil we will pay high prices. We need to tap into our own reserves and be independent!

When was the last refinery built in the US?
When was the last power plant built?
We are way behind the times.
If we were cut off from foreign oil, what would happen?
We need to think beyond the pump.
We should not be dependent on any country for anything.

[overlander63]

Originally Posted by flitzwhopper

Whilst in graduate school thirty years ago, my wacky roomate pressed on me the awareness of Hubbert's peak. We were both scientists at the time. I was and still am skeptical about the most dire predictions but the general ethic put forward changed how I planed my life out.

Hubbert Peak of Oil Production

[StreamNTyme]

If I could run my life on solar, I would. However, my cars, boat, airstream, house do not run on solar. Maybe someday.

[ArtStream]

Originally Posted by kmtyme

I heard this morning they "project" gas to rise to $200. barrel in the next year.

We have tons of our own fuel in many areas the environmentalists will not allow us to tap .

As long as we are dependent on foreign oil we will pay high prices. We need to tap into our own reserves and be independent!

When was the last refinery built in the US?
When was the last power plant built?
We are way behind the times.
If we were cut off from foreign oil, what would happen?
We need to think beyond the pump.
We should not be dependent on any country for anything.

If 70% of the United States oil is imported, where is the cheap other 30%.

We don't import milk, but that has not stopped milk prices from going thru the roof.

The top sources of US crude oil imports for February were Canada (1.888 million barrels per day), Saudi Arabia (1.614 million barrels per day), Mexico (1.231 million barrels per day), Nigeria (0.982 million barrels per day), and Venezuela (0.927 million barrels per day). The rest of the top ten sources, in order, were Iraq (0.780 million barrels per day), Angola (0.341 million barrels per day), Kuwait (0.261 million barrels per day), Colombia (0.220 million barrels per day), and Ecuador (0.169 million barrels per day). Total crude oil imports averaged 9.514 million barrels per day in February, which is a decrease of (0.486) million barrels per day from January 2008.

Canada remained the largest exporter of total petroleum in February, exporting 2.419 million barrels per day to the United States, which is a decrease from last month (2.586 thousand barrels per day). The second largest exporter of total petroleum was Saudi Arabia with 1.627 million barrels per day.

M

[lewster]

'Been following this thread with interest.

One burning question is un-addressed an un-answered. Many people are screaming for us to tap into wilderness areas for 'our own' cheap oil. Oil is an international commodity, and the price is 'set' every day based on the traders biddings for future contracts.

If you had your own oil well that was strictly for your own use, you would have all of the oil that you wanted for what ever the cost was to extract and refine it.

If you are selling it, would you sell it for less than the current world asking price? I think not!

Being a goldsmith for 30 years, I am intimately familiar with the commodity pricing of precious metals. Using the example above, if you owned your own gold mine and it cost you $250/ounce to extract and process your gold, would you then sell it for a small profit when you know that you can easily get the current world market price of $900/ounce for it? I THINK NOT!

This is by no means a defense of the big oil companies ( I despise them as much as the next guy), but they are no more willing to sell you their 'cheap oil' when the world price is $120/barrel than you would be in the same stuation. Big oil companies are in this game for one reason and one reason ONLY...............TO MAKE $$$$$$$$$$$$$

I don't have any answers to this situation, other than aggresively pursuing alternative energy sources like wind, solar and bio fuels that are NOT food based like corn/ethanol. If this foolish path is continued, we will be choosing between eating and transportation in 20 years. Cellulose based ethanol (look at Brazil) and bio-diesel are attractive alternatives.

[richinny]

has there been any talk of reducing the federal taxes on gas? is it a flat rate per gallon or a percentage?

[brunoffrance]

Originally Posted by Jimarq

Let me start off by saying that I'm generally a very optimistic person and hope to avoid being labeled Mrs. Gloom and Doom BUT

how bad does it have to get before the fuel prices start preventing people from getting out and camping and damaging if not ruining the RV business?

We are in that stage of our lives - one retired, the second close behind - where we are beginning to think about doing some serious camping and traveling. We have owned 3 Airstreams and are seriously looking a 4th newer, more expensive, "forever" Airstream. We are not rich by any means and are having second thoughts of spending that money on the trailer if we're not going to be able to enjoy it anywhere but in our driveway.

I realize it's going to be everyone's own decision as to how much they are willing and can afford to spend for say a long weekend at the lake but could there come a time that your favorite RV park at the lake is going to be closed down due to lack of business? Will RV supply companies and manufactures close down for the same reason? Is this a domino effect and the price at the pump is going to trickle (flood) down and hurt not just campers but business owners and manufacturers - thousands, maybe millions of people?

And my second question, is there a legitimate solution being developed? Is the solution already out there and for some reason (ie, government intervention) being kept from the us, the consumers?

These are questions Jimmy and I discussed yesterday after having to pull out that credit card and fill up twice for a relatively short trip (without the trailer). Please give us some reasons to be hopeful that our years of dreaming and planning of Airstreaming in our retirement years can still be a reality.

here is my opinion ... not want to do a polemic so some things disturb me.
No, it's not the beginning of the end;i try to explain:
I'm really not a rich man an even if i 'ld want it, I 'll never be able to buy a new airstream, in USA or even in Europe so i've gotten a vintage one for only $4000 and i 'll certainly keep it until my death...

Not wanted to frustrating you, but you're talking about gas prices so you are thinking about your 4th airstream... and at what price.... few $10 000 or only $4000 as me ?
How many gallons can you buy with the price of a new airstream ?

My advice is you have to keep your 3rd Airstream and take the road without having an eye on your gas comsumption and take pleasure with your passion that is Airstream and travel with.

In France and Europe, gas is really more expensive that yours ( 1,50 Euro for 1 liter, 1 gal =3,8 liter ) so even if our cars have low consumptions, driving is expensive ( i don't speak about tolls, taxes and other to drive).
So do you see demonstrations or meetings in the streets over the world from drivers against the gas prices ? NO !

In fact, gas prices is a bad problem... OK it's expensive so, but we spend so much money in stupids stuffs , in media systems, in a lot of useless things ... and you certainly earn sufficient money to pay this gas that this becomes ridiculous.

If riding with an Airstream is a passion or simply, you love that, Don't tell me the gas price is a brake .... If it is , stop watching tv, switch off your home electricity to do economies by example and live in a campground...
in your Airstream.

So, one more time, it's only my opinion from a french guy that love s your country, but NO, it's not the beginning of the end;
Only some choices to do cleverly and I try ...

bruno.

[Garfield]

The price of fuel always has been, and always will be market driven. No government can afford to artifically lower the price of oil and they aren't going to lower taxes just to temporarily mitigate the pain a little bit. Besides, they've become dependent on those taxes.

But I don't think the RV industry is going anywhere soon. I think what we will see is a transformation to smaller, lighter and more innovative RVs' and definitely more fuel efficient TV's. Early reports of the new MB diesels delivering nearly 20 MPG towing mid-sized Airstreams is very encouraging. The fact is that there are V6's on the market right now that can be configured to tow 30 foot Airstreams -- Can-Am RV has demonstration set ups for anyone to tryout.

No doubt higher prices will force some financially strapped retirees on fixed incomes out of RVing which is unfortunate, but the rest of us along with the industry will just be forced to adapt.

[rickandsandi]

Originally Posted by cameront120

If nothing else, maybe Airstream will pay attention to its buying public's concerns and start seriously developing lighter trailers. Trailers that can be towed easily and safely by smaller, 6 cylinder vehicles. If they can do it for the overseas market, why not for it's domestic market?

A good thought but history has shown up untill now that the Airstream Customer wants a fully loaded travel trailer with the big stove, micro-wave, refrig., Audio/Video upgrades, lots of water and room for grey and black and a big bed. Don't blame Airstream for making products that their customers want!

[Silvertwinkie]

I posted this in the other big oil thread too. I found it interesting and true:

Glenn Beck: U.S. is a suicidal superpower - CNN.com

[SilverGate]

Originally Posted by brunoffrance

So, one more time, it's only my opinion from a french guy that love s your country, but NO, it's not the beginning of the end;
Only some choices to do cleverly and I try ...
bruno.

Bravo, Bruno!

As you say, it comes down to setting our priorities.

Let's continue to enjoy our Airstream dreams and adventures...

Only do it wisely... Smarter, not harder!

Cheers!

SilverGate

[dmac]

Drive a little slower. Drive a little less. Tow an Airstream instead of driving a big motorhome. But it can still be done.

I have another gas-intensive hobby... flying a small airplane. Fly a little slower, lean more aggresively, go GPS direct, fly a little less, and use the web to find the cheapest fuel. I'm trying to stretch my gas dollars so I can fly more Angel Flights (free medical transportation for those in need).

[Silverwanabe]

I am also shocked and angry about the high prices and wonder how this will effect the RV industry and the boaters? And everybody...
Have to include the boaters in this.

1973-74 and 79 were bad years and we survived, RV companies adjusted and carried on. Some did go under.

But is it really different this time?

Since 911, everything feels "different"....

[Fyrzowt]

I'm trying to stretch my gas dollars so I can fly more Angel Flights (free medical transportation for those in need).

dmac, karma to you.

[lovingtahoe]

Originally Posted by brunoffrance

In fact, gas prices is a bad problem... OK it's expensive so, but we spend so much money in stupids stuffs , in media systems, in a lot of useless things ... and you certainly earn sufficient money to pay this gas that this becomes ridiculous.

If riding with an Airstream is a passion or simply, you love that, Don't tell me the gas price is a brake .... If it is , stop watching tv, switch off your home electricity to do economies by example and live in a campground...
in your Airstream.

So, one more time, it's only my opinion from a french guy that love s your country, but NO, it's not the beginning of the end;
Only some choices to do cleverly and I try ...

bruno.

Here, here!

Thanks Bruno! We just need to adjust our lifestyles.... it's about time IMHO

[cooperhawk]

I like Glen Beck and watch his TV show from time to time, but his stock and trade is fear mongering. He has us all living as savages in an anarchist world, or so one would think. He makes some good points however.
This is still the best and greatest country in the world to live in. Any of you want to live elsewhere?

The recent problem in the Mortgage Markets has left those investers with no place to invest their money, so guess what, they are investing in "Oil Futures". And now they compete with the capitolists that were already in the market driving the prices up. I hope a lot of them lose their a**s!

You hear very little about the new Bakke Oil Field being developed in North Dakota, Wyoming, and Montana. Proven reserves already announced at 3 billion by the USGS, and predicted to grow to 300 billion. They are drilling like mad right now. At 300 billion it would exceed all the oil that Saudi Arabia has.

For years now the cheap oil importation has shut down a lot of production here in the states. Friends, we have a LOT of oil. We just didn't have the need to go get it. Many wells were shut down because they couldn't pump it out of the ground and compete with the prices offered by OPEC. Well, guess what? We now have the incentive. Don't be surprised if the American people rise up against the "Green Weenies" and demand that we drill for our own oil! Modern methods disrupt the environment very little.

We are the Mideast of Coal. New technologies allow us to burn coal cleanly and economically. It makes very little sense to not use what we have.

The high price of oil is not really new. In the seventies we had the Arab Oil Embargo. I sat in gas lines on alternate days just so I could get to work. Just when our own oil industry was gearing up the Arabs saw what was happening and dropped the price right out from under them. I hope that doesn't happen again.

Why you ask? Well, I would like to be free of the Mideast clutches. I would like our own industry to supply us. Yes, it can be done. If the price stays up just sit back and watch. We can and will kick their butts.

With the falling dollar people will vacation here in the states. Better value for the money. Yep, they'll come from overseas too. It's happened this way before. Our products will compete better as well. More for the dollar.

I want to see new fuels come on line as much as anyone else. I just don't think there is anything ready as of yet. I like hydrogen. The problem is that we really don't have a cheap way to manufacture it yet. Until then we have all we need right here at home. We only need the incentive to go get it.