Who Can Beat Me?

[Spaggs]

This is now getting to be ridiculous! We were just informed by our salesman that our 2022 28’ FC Queen is now due for completion on 05/25/2022. That makes it one (1) year and four (4) days since ordering. My wife tells me “don’t worry about it, because it’s only six (6) days away from June, so most likely we won’t receive delivery until sometime that month, if we’re lucky.” The next “update” will probably put us in June, then July, then …….
Anybody go for longer?
Anybody KNOW ( no conjecture, please) why?
We ordered with all the options.
Thanks
P.S. Anybody have the same trailer with same options and received delivery earlier? Just curious.

[Renagade69]

It's dealer allocation sometimes. Your dealer may not have had the spot they told you. The MFG may be having supply chain issues. I ordered an International and they told me August and it will be a 23 model year. They will lose sales at some point. People will only wait so long.

[uncle_bob]

Hi

Unfortunately this rapidly becomes a "who knows?" sort of thing. AS does not have a customer facing order tracking web site like the auto companies do. You are pretty much stuck with whatever the dealer tells you. He may be 100% truthful, there are some unfortunate examples where that was not the case.

Even *with* the ability to hop in and monitor orders, stuff happens. We had a delivery go from "shipping tomorrow" to "be there in 6 months" pretty much overnight on a vehicle we ordered. Apparently somebody didn't quite count the number of this or that accurately.

Bob

[Spaggs]

Day before yesterday, I called Tim Maxwell, Area Rep. for AS, and pleaded my case. He said he would look into the matter.
I have received several PMs from customers who have ordered longer trailers and have gotten theirs or have been promised delivery dates months sooner than me.
My original Sales Rep. is gone from Southland. He left several months back, before I received my last 6 digits of my VIN.
My current Sales Rep. told me that he left for greener pastures. What could be greener than an AS Salesman during a pandemic?
My Private Investigator perception tells me something is not right.

[KCCO]

We’ve just been told the same thing. 30 foot cloud - ordered in July and told April of 22. Now not expecting until July 2022.

There are lots of delays it seems, but it also appears that some dealerships are having more delays than others…..

[Colossus]

Originally Posted by KCCO

We’ve just been told the same thing. 30 foot cloud - ordered in July and told April of 22. Now not expecting until July 2022.

There are lots of delays it seems, but it also appears that some dealerships are having more delays than others…..

When did you get your VIN?

[flxstr]

$18 billion in backlogged orders for Thor - goes a long way to pushing out delivery dates. https://www.businessinsider.com/majo...orders-2021-12

[Spaggs]

Originally Posted by Colossus

When did you get your VIN?

October.

[kidzant]

Ordered FC 27ft end of June 2021, just updated moved from delivery June 2022 to end of August due to rear hatch and refrigeration.

Im thinking September.

[Hittenstiehl]

While frustrating this really doesn't sound that unrealistic. Supply chain issues, workforce shortages, covid issues etc.

[Spaggs]

Originally Posted by kidzant

Ordered FC 27ft end of June 2021, just updated moved from delivery June 2022 to end of August due to rear hatch and refrigeration.

Im thinking September.

14 months, wow. I think you are the winner. Now I’m afraid to ask for an update.
14 months?

[Colossus]

Originally Posted by Hittenstiehl

While frustrating this really doesn't sound that unrealistic. Supply chain issues, workforce shortages, covid issues etc.

Supply chain, workforce shortages and Covid are realistic issues. I get that. However, after 6 months (definitely 2 years) of dealing with those issues AS should have found a better way to manage those situations. At a minimal they should have better insight on their supply chain performance and provide more accurate delivery dates.

[AKNate]

Originally Posted by Colossus

Supply chain, workforce shortages and Covid are realistic issues. I get that. However, after 6 months (definitely 2 years) of dealing with those issues AS should have found a better way to manage those situations. At a minimal they should have better insight on their supply chain performance and provide more accurate delivery dates.

In their defense, the problem doesn’t seem linear or predictable. The issues are much worse now than a year ago. I think a year ago most people thought the issues would be gone by now. Instead even basic items are being affected now and the problems are more widespread. When grocery stores can’t even keep food on the shelves, I’m not surprised Thor is having a lot of trouble getting all the parts to build an Airstream.

[Colossus]

Originally Posted by AKNate

In their defense, the problem doesn’t seem linear or predictable. The issues are much worse now than a year ago. I think a year ago most people thought the issues would be gone by now. Instead even basic items are being affected now and the problems are more widespread. When grocery stores can’t even keep food on the shelves, I’m not surprised Thor is having a lot of trouble getting all the parts to build an Airstream.

AS obviously knows their build demand in the form of customer orders. They should also know their on hand or perpetual inventory. Based off of this information they should be able to work with suppliers to understand where the potential opportunities may be. This coupled with their operations management/build time for each unit, they should be able to “better” enhance a view of their build date accuracy.

Perishables vs non perishables … this is a totally different discussion in the terms of grocery store shelves vs Thor supplier inventory, with much different controls. There is a huge difference when AS has a much longer material lead time with actual demand. Inventory turns alone would support that statement.

[uncle_bob]

Originally Posted by Colossus

AS obviously knows their build demand in the form of customer orders. They should also know their on hand or perpetual inventory. Based off of this information they should be able to work with suppliers to understand where the potential opportunities may be. This coupled with their operations management/build time for each unit, they should be able to “better” enhance a view of their build date accuracy.

Perishables vs non perishables … this is a totally different discussion in the terms of grocery store shelves vs Thor supplier inventory, with much different controls. There is a huge difference when AS has a much longer material lead time with actual demand. Inventory turns alone would support that statement.

Hi

..... and when the supplier has a container stuck on a ship for 6 months with all of AS parts on it, then what? There are an unfortunately large number of things like that happening these days.

Indeed this can get really crazy really fast. Nobody really has a full view of any of this.

Bob

[Colossus]

Originally Posted by uncle_bob

Hi



..... and when the supplier has a container stuck on a ship for 6 months with all of AS parts on it, then what? There are an unfortunately large number of things like that happening these days.



Indeed this can get really crazy really fast. Nobody really has a full view of any of this.



Bob

Hi,

“… AS parts stuck on a ship for 6 months, Then what?” Allow it to happen and over again and let’s pray it doesn’t continue. That’s how a successful supply chain is executed? How about a risk mitigation plan, what about strategic plan to reduce the risk of the same issue happening again or secondary suppliers.

Agreed, if material being stuck on a ship is a one off situation then it happens. I get it. But if this is an ongoing situation any respectable business will invest in a RCCA to aid in solving a problem.

I don’t intend to solve this problem for Thor/AS. Assuming it is a problem. After all, sales are up! I’m sure they can pay someone to figure it out. That is, if they deem it necessary or an issue. If customers don’t seem to care, and the orders continue to pile up, then in their eyes it’s not an issue.

[uncle_bob]

Originally Posted by Colossus

Hi,

“… AS parts stuck on a ship for 6 months, Then what?” Allow it to happen and over again and let’s pray it doesn’t continue. That’s how a successful supply chain is executed? How about a risk mitigation plan, what about strategic plan to reduce the risk of the same issue happening again or secondary suppliers.

Agreed, if material being stuck on a ship is a one off situation then it happens. I get it. But if this is an ongoing situation any respectable business will invest in a RCCA to aid in solving a problem.

I don’t intend to solve this problem for Thor/AS. Assuming it is a problem. After all, sales are up! I’m sure they can pay someone to figure it out. That is, if they deem it necessary or an issue. If customers don’t seem to care, and the orders continue to pile up, then in their eyes it’s not an issue.

Hi

What you have is a near infinite number of "one off" situations happening to a range of supply chains. The world stopped the "make it all in house" approach a long long time ago. I got sick of hearing "inventory is the enemy" many many decades ago. We all spent those many decades creating a system that has way to many links in it to follow them all up.

On top of that we went to a "winner takes all" purchasing approach. No more "keep the second / third source going" orders. One guy gets all our business. When everybody does that ... surprise ... there's only one supplier left to buy from. The second and third sources no longer exist. Creating those alternate suppliers from scratch .. not going to happen. We *do* still have a lot of brand names, often they all come out of the same factory (or at least the same parent company).

Yes, there's a *lot* more to this. No, management does not get a pass. A lot of orders for this and that got canceled that never should have been canceled. A lot of cutbacks happened for less than good reasons. Attention was not paid to staffing and personal (at least not positive attention). Right now, I don't see any of this going on with any manufacturer ( RV, truck, car, boat .....).

It's complicated and it's a situation we spent decades ( centuries ...) setting up. It will take a *long* time to change that setup.

Crazy !!!

Bob

[kidzant]

Just wondering are people recieving trailers on time or delayed?
Ordered 27 FC front bedroom with hatch in June 2021. Estimated delivery September of this year.

[brad1]

Originally Posted by kidzant

Just wondering are people recieving trailers on time or delayed?
Ordered 27 FC front bedroom with hatch in June 2021. Estimated delivery September of this year.

Hatch. Did you say hatch? Uh oh Lucy! Now you’ve done it!

The units with the longest lead time, which keeps getting pushed back and pushed back, is for those with the hatch. Apparently there are a bunch of items fabricated specifically for the hatches by other suppliers. The lead time for those items keeps getting put off because they’re backlogged with other work in addition to their AS orders..

I’ve got a hatched International on order. It was originally expected to be built in July ‘22 for an August deliver. That was pushed back to October. I expect more push back notices. I’ll be surprised if anybody sees a new unit with a hatch any time before the end of the first quarter of 2023. Note that I have no particular insights, just a feeling…

[kidzant]

Oh Boy that is really bad news. I hope you are pleasantly surprised and you get your trailer on time.