Light Diesel Market To Grow 168% In 2018 And Another 86% In 2019

[utahredrock]

Here's an interesting bit of analysis. One guys opinion, but he's got a lot to back it up (I am sure people can find facts to back up the opposite conclusion too).

You can read the initial part of the article without login (registration and login is free) but need to log in to read the full piece, which is pretty long:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/415...6-percent-2019

Let me know if there's a problem with that link. It's the one I got after I registered.

As a diesel lover, I hope he's right, or close to being right.

[pt.reyesfan]

Originally Posted by utahredrock

Here's an interesting bit of analysis. One guys opinion, but he's got a lot to back it up (I am sure people can find facts to back up the opposite conclusion too).



You can read the initial part of the article without login (registration and login is free) but need to log in to read the full piece, which is pretty long:



https://seekingalpha.com/article/415...6-percent-2019



Let me know if there's a problem with that link. It's the one I got after I registered.



As a diesel lover, I hope he's right, or close to being right.

US diesel demand has been shrinking for 2 years to in a row. I will send out a plot. ( I am an energy market analyst.)

[jcl]

The 168% applies to what the analyst terms "personal use diesels". Just a comment that when you have a very small market, it is easy to show a large percentage change. He estimates a base line of 43,718 vehicles sold in 2017.

It is worth noting his observation that that sales volume is less than a quarter of the battery and plug in hybrid electric vehicles sold in the same time period.

For that market class, I would expect to see continued growth in battery and plug in hybrid electrics. The analysts comments that diesel "personal use vehicles" could catch electrics is if electric vehicle sales volumes remain flat, but in fact they are increasing rapidly.

I would expect diesel sales will continue strong in heavier duty applications, such as 3/4 ton pickups and vans on up.

[Daquenzer]

I just don’t see the Diesel engine as the engine of the future. I suspect that this will be true even for heavier duty uses. The emission issues are significant. Ford is already moving to introduce a hybrid F150 in 2020. Hybrids are the wave of the future. The issue will be the ability to create torque and horsepower. If they get even close to the Ecoboost performance I think they will take off. Imagine a pickup that gets 30 to 40 mpg! And 20 to 25mpg while pulling!

Even Cummins is working on an all electric motor. They wouldn’t be doing that if they thought diesel was the wave of the future.

[SteveSueMac]

What about a diesel electric hybrid like those used in trains? Maybe since gas is more popular that would be the choice (and the death of diesel). I'm not qualified to have an opinion on this - I know nothing about the markets or energy - I just drive a honkingly huge 3/4T diesel for my 27FB (which is overkill). Really looking forward to seeing he GMC Denali with a straight 6 diesel - but would really love to see an effective diesel/electric hybrid - the way CSX says then can move a ton of freight 470 miles on a single gallon of diesel. For my 7 ton rig, that's be 63 mpg. I could get behind that....

[jcl]

I think of diesel electric hybrid as a bridging technology on the way to full electric.

And it doesn't have to be diesel, locomotives are under test with LNG now, using the existing diesel engines. That is a bridging technology as well.

The end game is full electric, whether battery electric, or fuel cell, or third rail/catenary. The hybrid weight/complexity/cost is just needed until the battery/fuel cell technology gets further ahead with improved range, or the infrastructure is built out for transferring electrical power while under way.

Rail lines can already go full electric. North America is an outlier here with diesel electric, mainly because of failing to invest in infrastructure.

Trains aren't more efficient due to the diesel electric. Every time you convert power (diesel to electricity to motive power) you lose something due to the inefficiencies. Full electric would be more efficient. The low energy cost of moving freight by rail is due to low rolling resistance, and constant speeds.

[tjdonahoe]

Trains are efficient, as a coal train has 110 cars @ 110 tons each...is 12,000 tons, that is a bit of weight....

[Countryboy59]

Originally Posted by utahredrock

Here's an interesting bit of analysis. One guys opinion, but he's got a lot to back it up (I am sure people can find facts to back up the opposite conclusion too).

You can read the initial part of the article without login (registration and login is free) but need to log in to read the full piece, which is pretty long:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/415...6-percent-2019

Let me know if there's a problem with that link. It's the one I got after I registered.

As a diesel lover, I hope he's right, or close to being right.

Smaller diesels in half tons will be very popular, I predict. Since trucks are outselling cars, this may be right.

[Countryboy59]

Originally Posted by tjdonahoe

Trains are efficient, as a coal train has 110 cars @ 110 tons each...is 12,000 tons, that is a bit of weight....

Yeah, but I’d hate to be stuck behind one at a red light lol.

[TexAirS]

Originally Posted by jcl

The end game is full electric, whether battery electric, or fuel cell, or third rail/catenary. The hybrid weight/complexity/cost is just needed until the battery/fuel cell technology gets further ahead with improved range, or the infrastructure is built out for transferring electrical power while under way.

Rail lines can already go full electric. North America is an outlier here with diesel electric, mainly because of failing to invest in infrastructure.

Trains aren't more efficient due to the diesel electric. Every time you convert power (diesel to electricity to motive power) you lose something due to the inefficiencies. Full electric would be more efficient. The low energy cost of moving freight by rail is due to low rolling resistance, and constant speeds.

I was just in northern New Mexico and saw several trains go by. That's in the middle of nowhere, so third rail won't work. Killing livestock and wildlife is a no no. Putting the lines overhead would be too costly. So profit rules.

And does coal based electricity pollute more or less than diesel per mile? That's what we have around here for electricity.

John

[jcl]

Coal based electrical generation is worse, but coal is on its way out IMO.

[crispyboy]

Wasn't the Milwaukee Road an electrified rail road many, many years ago? Apparently it didn't pay well for them but much of their demise was probably poor management. It seems like the infrastructure for an electrified railroad would be very costly. A few short years ago they put electrified street cars back in Cincinnati. What a boon doggle that has turned out to be (very predictable). Unbelievable high cost to set up this infrastructure with only 25% of the expected revenue from use.

[jcl]

Electrified railways in remote areas? Like the Trans Siberian Railway? Check.

WRT streetcars, we don't have streetcars where I live in Vancouver but we do have a fleet of several hundred trolley buses (rubber tires, electric drive from catenary). We have used electric trolley buses since 1948, and the latest are low floor, articulated buses. Our electrical generation is primarily hydro, so considered renewable.

[VernDiesel]

I don’t have any interest in electric truck yet perhaps as a diesel hybrid. But I am pleased to see Ford & GM joining Ram in the small efficient diesel half ton market. Ram is useing a 48 volt battery & mild hybrids so far with the two gassers. Also interested in GMs new small 3.0 inline 6 diesel and the oppossed motor diesel that the company put in the f150 at the Detroit auto show.

[tjdonahoe]

Originally Posted by crispyboy

Wasn't the Milwaukee Road an electrified rail road many, many years ago? Apparently it didn't pay well for them but much of their demise was probably poor management. It seems like the infrastructure for an electrified railroad would be very costly. A few short years ago they put electrified street cars back in Cincinnati. What a boon doggle that has turned out to be (very predictable). Unbelievable high cost to set up this infrastructure with only 25% of the expected revenue from use.

Milawakee road...Harlowton,Mt to Seattle..worked very well...they went down because there wasn’t enough business for 3 railroads..in a small area....they were timed so one motor was going down hill producing electricity, one going uphill using it...plus several power plants

[wbrisett]

Originally Posted by pt.reyesfan

US diesel demand has been shrinking for 2 years to in a row. I will send out a plot. ( I am an energy market analyst.)

But the question in my mind is, is that because of the lack of models? Right now, the choices of diesels in the US marketplace (thanks to the big scandal) is really limited. However, those choices are starting to increase.

GM is taking a bit leap in trying to jump start the diesel market in the under 3/4 ton market. They offer diesels in small pickups (and soon to be 1/2 ton market), small vehicles (Cruze, Equinox). That's a pretty broad range.

Ford and Chevy both have 1/2 ton truck options in the wings to compete with the RAM offering.

So, is it that people haven't had choices until this past year again? Or that vehicles still aren't where people want them (1/2 ton market)? Or that maybe the VW scandal has hurt the market beyond compare? Lastly, maybe it's just that unlike Europe our fuel prices haven't always been over $3 a gallon, so we haven't cared as much about the difference between 38 MPG and 23 MPG. Hard to pick any one thing.

I do think this, if people got a chance to experience the new diesels (like that in the Cruze and Equinox), they might have a different opinion about them as daily drivers... Truth in advertising ... we just purchased a diesel Equinox and now have two diesels the 3/4 ton we haul our Airstream with and a daily driver.

[ZOZ]

Originally Posted by wbrisett

...GM is taking a bit leap in trying to jump start the diesel market in the under 3/4 ton market. They offer diesels in small pickups (and soon to be 1/2 ton market), small vehicles (Cruze, Equinox). That's a pretty broad range....

According to CEO Mary Barra, General Motors announced that all their cars will be battery/electric beginning in 2023. Trucks will be petroleum based.


zoz

[xrvr]

Shoving it down our throats!.

[Ted S.]

My next tow vehicle will be gas. I'm done with diesel and all the issues.

[jcl]

Originally Posted by xrvr

Shoving it down our throats!.

If you mean cleaner air, as compared to smog laden with particulates, then bring it on!