(Not) Camping during Covid-19 season

[BayouBiker]

Originally Posted by InterBlog

Johns Hopkins says "Doctors and scientists are working on estimating the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be higher than that of most strains of the flu."

I cannot find any location where this cited source, Johns Hopkins, states anything resembling "most flu is much deadlier (nearly 4 times)".

John Hopkins and many other health organizations list the current rates based on risk factors for the data they currently have. As you note, a lot of the data is from China but Korea and Italy have significant data also. The same information is available for flu, the rest is simple math, you just compare the numbers.

Originally Posted by InterBlog

But right now, what we have is about 15% mortality for the 80+ age group. That is what's on the table right now, from the WHO in collaboration with the Chinese.

And that has huge moral implications for all of us. Unless we personally believe in euthanasia, we better do whatever is reasonable to keep from contributing to the spread of this thing.

If tomorrow we find out it's actually 0.15% mortality for the 80+ American age group, OK, that's a different decision.

Everyone seems to acknowledge this is a significant risk for aged people with preexisting conditions. The experience in Kirkland, Washington at the nursing home confirms it.

[Belbein]

Originally Posted by BayouBiker

What news do you read, CNN or MSNBC?

Drives me crazy when a person assumes that if they hear something they don't like, that the speaker must be relying on some sources they disdain.

I "read" Drudge, Fox, NYT, NPR, CDC bulletins, MSNBC, New York Post, and every news site (conservative and liberal) that come across my news feeds, etc etc etc. And I've been doing this kind of reading and surveying all sides of every political issue since there was a conservative or liberal political party that actually had values.

As for the chart: I heard Sanjay Gupta (who you probably think is a Deep State idiot) say this morning that when we judge mortality rates, the numerator can be known: it's easier to count dead bodies. But the denominator--the universe of people who have been infected--is impossible to know. We don't know who's been infected and had no symptoms, who's been infected and had minor symptoms, who got infected and had severe symptoms but is dying out in some little village in Mongolia or the Ozarks. So the statistics are unusually unreliable.

More than this I cannot say without violating my Mother's admonition, that if you can't say something nice, don't say anything.

[Lily&Me]

I was just reading an article in the NYT about the NY attorney who has coronavirus.

He was in the hospital for four days diagnosed with pneumonia before he was found to have the virus...coming in contact with dozens of staff, visitors, family members, medical personnel, other patients, transferred to different rooms in the hospital and then by ambulance as his conditioned worsened to an ICU at a different hospital.

All before he was found to have the coronavirus and without being in isolation or anyone using protective gear.

3 of his family members now have the virus, along with the neighbor who drove him to the hospital.

Medical personnel who had contact with him are in quarantine, unable therefore to work and staff their hospital.

He’s 50 years old, in critical condition and on a ventilator.

This is just beginning.

Maggie

[OTRA15]

Originally Posted by Lily&Me

. . .
. . . This is just beginning.
. . .

Yup!

For the most part, everyone is not even perceiving the complexity and extent of all the risks. Your excellent post demonstrates but ONE case that branched out in almost-countless directions.

Sleep-walking.

Narcosis.

Whatever term you like . . .

Unawareness of one's own blinders is a big part of the problem. [not you, Maggie ]

Happy Trails! [ . . . and keep your sense of humor . . . ]

Peter

[BayouBiker]

Originally Posted by Belbein

Drives me crazy when a person assumes that if they hear something they don't like, that the speaker must be relying on some sources they disdain.

It's called sarcasm. You might try to laugh once in a while! (hint, more sarcasm)

Originally Posted by Belbein

As for the chart: I heard Sanjay Gupta (who you probably think is a Deep State idiot) say this morning that when we judge mortality rates, the numerator can be known: it's easier to count dead bodies. But the denominator--the universe of people who have been infected--is impossible to know. We don't know who's been infected and had no symptoms, who's been infected and had minor symptoms, who got infected and had severe symptoms but is dying out in some little village in Mongolia or the Ozarks. So the statistics are unusually unreliable

These issues apply to flu statistics as well and the under counts work in the same direction so uncertainty does not grow unreasonably. Indications are the viruses behave similarly, attach to the same membranes and are transmitted similarly. Since we are comparing similarly behaving viruses, it is statistically valid to to make relative comparisons.

[BayouBiker]

What part of the human condition causes one to panic over 20 deaths in the US, 4,000 worldwide, but seemingly shrug over ~ 20,000 US deaths (so far) and ~500,000 worldwide? What makes people fear events that might not happen but not fear serious and certain events already playing out when they are direct analogs to each other? Is it rational to panic over such things? Is it rational to make predictions that contradict available facts based on a handful of cherry picked circumstances? Is it rational to claim nobody knows diddly and then turn right around and claim to know what is going to happen in the future?

[Lily&Me]

Get a grip.

WHO is panicking???

You do your interpretation of the level of risk, others can do theirs.

Maggie

[Daquenzer]

I just listened to the daily briefing. They stated that people 60+, and especially those in that age with compromised health, are at greatest risk.
I think that is clear by the statistics. Thus wisdom and care is in order. We owe it to ourselves AND we owe it to those who are vulnerable.

Now whether or not people have over hyped this well there are numerous opinions. I think some people have clearly panicked. Thus the hoarding. I’m not panicking. Rather we should just be prudent.

My philosophy is better to be safe than sorry. I do this with the flu. I stay away from people that are sick. I make sure to get a flu shot. I make sure I wash my hands and don’t touch stuff in public places or if I do I clean my hands. I avoid shaking hands in the flu season and when I do I clean my hands right away. When I go to the gym I clean any equipment I touch before and after.

Plus I get exercise, eat properly, get plenty of rest, etc. This is to make sure my immune system is strong.

I live in Wisconsin and there is all kinds of stuff around. I have so far avoided a cold or flu all winter.

This isn’t rocket science.

I have some friends that just came back from visiting their children and grandchildren with colds! Of course their children and grand children had colds. And this occurs all the time with these couples. When I see things like this it irritates me. I think, “What are you thinking?” These kind of mental lapses are the kind of thing that will be the demise of some people. Like the priest who after having the flu shook hands with hundreds of congregants after church. He actually had COVID19!! What was he thinking!!!!

Having said that if there is a spike in this virus in a certain area then we are wise to limit our public activities in those areas; especially if 60 years and older. And this is what the experts say. Especially when we have people that are just plain careless on a general level.

[FCloud9]

This “opinion editorial” is by far is one of the best I’ve read today-


How to improve your chances against coronavirus
Opinion by James P. Phillips, MD

James P. Phillips, MD, is an assistant professor of emergency medicine at the George Washington University, where he serves as chief of the Section of Disaster and Operational Medicine. Follow him on Twitter @DrPhillipsMD.

We don't have to be helpless in the face of coronavirus.
I understand that people are yearning for a sense of control in what feels like an out-of-control situation. I call my father more often than I did a month ago, and he helps me understand the anxiety that he and other folks over 60 feel as they're inundated with reports that they are more "vulnerable" to the effects of the virus.

The anxiety extends way beyond older Americans. Just look at the number of canceled conferences, the number of companies telling staff to work from home, the nationwide shortages in toilet paper, hand sanitizer, disinfectant wipes and other goods in stores and online.

The patients I see in my work as a physician in the emergency department speak of a general sense of helplessness, as though a tidal wave is coming, and there is nothing they can do except wash their hands, try to find black market hand sanitizer, stay home and pray.

The virus known as SARS-CoV-2, which causes the disease called Covid-19, is currently spreading across the globe despite our best efforts, and I believe it will continue to do so. Every state, every country. As I wrote for CNN last week, I accept that my profession makes my own infection seem almost inevitable. Naturally, people are clamoring for answers to currently unanswerable questions. Will I get it? How many people are going to get infected and what percentage of them will die? Who will die?

Nobody can tell you for sure. If you hear someone stating they can, you should not believe them and you should evaluate their agenda. There are far too many variables to allow for perfect predictions: potential seasonal variation, how well a population follows public health recommendations and the possible discovery of therapeutic medications, to name a few.
As new infection numbers appear to drop in China and South Korea, keep in mind that our countries have different social and cultural norms that could play a role, including differences in compliance with government wishes an degrees of social intimacy. In addition, there are political differences: the authoritarian measures used to socially isolate tens of millions of Chinese citizens are not realistic options in Western democracies like ours.

Of those who contract the virus, many are going to require hospital admission for pneumonia and/or complications of their preexisting diseases. Among those hospitalized, studies show that significant numbers will develop a complicated disease process called acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Many of these patients will require ICU care and a mechanical ventilator, and sheer math makes many of us in healthcare fearful that we could run out of rooms and ventilators in the coming months. Math matters.

So far, coronavirus does not appear to be affecting healthy children, and as the father of a 2-year-old, I take solace in that. A recent study published in The Lancet medical journal, although small, also provides some hope that pregnant women are not transmitting the virus to their babies. As the husband of a very pregnant and understanding wife, this is also hopeful news.

But I offer this: You are not helpless. There are other things you can do to empower yourself. First and foremost, the public health measures being recommended to us -- including hand washing, social distancing and avoiding large gatherings, really are the best means of protecting yourself from exposure. Prevention is and will remain the best medicine. However, many will still get infected despite adhering to these practices.
What else can you do to improve your odds of beating Covid-19 should you become infected? One key step: Maximize your health now, before you get sick. Studies have shown that those most at-risk are over 60 and/or have preexisting health problems like diabetes, obesity, cardiac disease, lung disease or generalized deconditioning.
If you have these (or other) medical problems, you can choose to be proactive and start addressing them with your fullest effort, starting today. You know that blood pressure medicine you never take because you hate taking pills and it makes you feel old? Start today. If you rarely, if ever, check your blood sugars and have allowed your diabetes to get out of control because the finger sticks and insulin shots are annoying -- get your sugars under control starting today. Got asthma or lung disease? Begin consistently using your prescribed inhalers.
And, for goodness' sake, stop smoking and vaping immediately. Commit to losing 10 pounds this month and force yourself to walk at least a mile every single day, starting today. Get your flu vaccine right now.

Even people without diagnosed medical problems should maximize their health. Exercise, weight loss, a healthy diet and good sleep are certainly beneficial to your body. Be empowered. By doing these simple things that your doctors have recommended to you for years, you have the power to improve your resilience. How much? It depends. But in the face of this virus, even a very small amount of improvement in your overall health could be the difference between mild or more severe symptoms, and for some, it could mean the difference between life and death.

You are not helpless. Do everything you can not to get the virus. But make sure that if you do, you are already at your strongest.
Be prepared, not scared.

Be prepared, not scared ( many of us are very familiar with good common sense and being prepared....we all know about preparing for Airstream adventures and this is certainly not an adventure of our choice but we will keep calm and carry on).

FCloud9

[Goin camping]

As someone who is 60 with a comprised immune system...

I am so happy my camping is boon docking out in the Mojave desert. Miles from anyone or anywhere on a map.

Probably the safest place in the world for me.

[Alreddawg19]

Hmm. I wonder if everyone that is NOT high risk group should change their tactic. What if that group actively tries to find someone with Covid and intentionally infects themselves. Then they immediately quarantine themselves and family for 14 days. Then we can just move on in the shortest amount of time...

Of course, realistically, I am joking but from a game theory standpoint it's an interesting thing to play out cognitively!

[turk123]

One thing is for sure. There is a very very good outcome that will happen through all this. The SARS-CoV-2 virus will cause people to change their habits.

There are people out there that have started washing their hands after going to the bathroom.

At a nearby Walmart, there were no cleaning supplies left on the shelf. This may be the first time some individuals have used a wide variety of products to clean with and have actually cleaned their house, restaurant or business.

Everyone in the US now knows what Purel is.

We've learned to not touch, hug and kiss everyone or go to work while we are sick.

We finally may ask our politicians to provide us with good healthcare.

We've learned that large groups and events can spread viruses.

So, the good outcome? All of these actions today that we all know about but just never followed, will probably save many many more lives than the SARS-CoV-2 virus will kill. The common flu virus deaths will drop drastically. People will be using common sense and the spread of other diseases will drop. We may go through a sad time with this virus, but many more people will live longer and healthier lives because of it.

I did run across a guy in our campground who visited me to look at my Bedslide. "I don't care anything about the bad flu", he said. " I'm not worried about it", as he smoked a very large cigar and tapped his ash off on the front "A" frame of my Airstream.

[SteveSueMac]

Well this virus, like many others is not friendly to older people, especially those with underlying chronic health issues. This virus, like others, doesn’t discriminate based on political party, news sources one does/n’t read, etc.

So if nothing else, perhaps we can coalesce on a single set of facts that don’t bend to marketing, hype, or manipulation.

That would be a good outcome...

Keep calm and wash your hands....

[Alreddawg19]

Here is a video to lighten the mood and help your hand washing

https://youtu.be/5jhwyAsZAvo

[OTRA15]

Originally Posted by FCloud9

This “opinion editorial” is by far is one of the best I’ve read today-
. . .

Great post [#74], thanks!

Peter

[OTRA15]

The overall mortality rate in Italy appears to be closer to 5%, it has recently been announced. Further analysis will refine this by age etc., and that rate could of course go down as testing becomes more complete [thereby picking up more cases with minimal symptoms etc.]

Echoing SSM . . . “Keep calm and wash your hands!”

Peter

[MovingAlong]

Originally Posted by batman

I can't imagine staying in hotels and eating at restaurants would be on my list of things to do this season. Definitely no cruise ships in my future.

...and sitting in your own private aluminium tube rolling along the highway is infinitely preferrable to sitting in a very public aluminium tube at 35,000 feet with 200 other people and recirculated air to get to any of the above destinations.

[Lily&Me]

Our personal responsibility is to do what we can to slow the spread of this virus.

From the WP this morning...

“When something dangerous is growing exponentially, everything looks fine until it doesn’t. In the early days of the Wuhan epidemic, when no one was taking precautions, the number of cases appears to have doubled every four to five days.


The crisis in northern Italy is what happens when a fast doubling rate meets a “threshold effect,” where the character of an event can massively change once its size hits a certain threshold.

In this case, the threshold is things such as ICU beds.....But once the number of critical patients exceeds the number of ventilators and ICU beds and other critical-care facilities, mortality rates spike.”

In a matter of days, known cases of this virus in the US have gone from a few to around 1,000 as of this morning.

We all need to do our part to slow the spread, wherever we are and whatever we are doing.

Maggie

[out of sight]

The mortality rate measured in South Korea is 0.7%. This is because extensive testing is being done there and more people with mild symptoms are being tested.

Originally Posted by OTRA15

The overall mortality rate in Italy appears to be closer to 5%, it has recently been announced. Further analysis will refine this by age etc., and that rate could of course go down as testing becomes more complete [thereby picking up more cases with minimal symptoms etc.]

Echoing SSM . . . “Keep calm and wash your hands!”

Peter

[rideair]

Been watching this channel for little over a month on the subject. IMHO very straight forward, goes by the numbers and understands exponential growth better than most.

Live in the country, got two Airstreams sitting in the driveway and third down the road. I'm ready to go camping next to the creek in the backyard.

https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisMa...ndotcom/videos