(Not) Camping during Covid-19 season

[Lily&Me]

Originally Posted by BayouBiker

Lilly&Me; your post is overly alarmist for the general public. It is simply incorrect to say there is more unknown about this virus than is known. The virus is fully deconstructed, it has been accurately modeled and all relevant behaviors are known including mutation factors. It is not a particularly difficult virus to defeat, but it will take some time to develop, test, produce and distribute a vaccine, likely a bit over year.

Your news sources should be ashamed of themselves for contributing to the nervousness and fanning the flames.
.

What is your source for this information, that it is “incorrect” there is more unknown than known about this virus? You’re talking about scientific mapping, while I’m talking about an epidemic of unknown proportion.

I’m not gleaning this information from editorials, nor do I believe that being rationally aware and reasonably cautious is alarmist.

If you look at what the health care system in China is dealing with, our country becoming overwhelmed if large numbers become seriously ill is a definite possibility.

It’s not just about whether an individual could become ill from this virus, but whether we responsibly need to do what we can not to spread it.

A year to year and a half to deploy a vaccine doesn’t protect anyone now.

As with any potential threat, i.e. tornadoes, hurricanes, etc., there is always an element of worst case scenario.

That doesn’t mean you don’t watch the storm system move thru your area and take shelter when needed.

Maggie

[trikdacy]

I do not plan on changing anything about being in the great "outdoors". I think catching anything in a forest is quite low. I do avoid being in crowds indoors, or crowds anywhere in general, virus or no virus.

[Al and Missy]

Originally Posted by OTRA15

FYI here is the live link which was in blue in Post #11:
...

Folks over 80 have a 14.8% chance of dying.

...

I know this is what you meant, but just to be clear, folks who contract the virus have a 14.8% chance of dying, based on the current and preliminary statistics.

At least that's how I interpret the statistics. The data I have seen from multiple sources say that the fatality rate is the number of fatalities divided by the number of confirmed cases. So we need to factor in the risk of actually contracting the virus, as well.

What I don't know is if the number of those over 80 includes persons with other issues (I suspect it does). What I'd like to know is the number of those persons with no other issues.

Al

[SteveSueMac]

I’m bothered, generally speaking, that humanity seems to be living in an either/or world and has lost the power of both/and - influenced by more and more extremes of political views.

The idea that our understanding of a virus should be shaped by politicians or media of any flavor - and the fact that we refer to propaganda machines as media anyway - is troubling.

It’s been said - one is entitled to one’s opinions. One is not entitled to one’s own facts. All politicians lie - sure, some more than others, but whether the lie is “I did not have sexual relations with that woman” or “mine was the largest inauguration crowd in history” - they all lie. So we should desire to find the facts - not opinions - provided by medical professionals and hope our institutions are not unduly influenced by politics. The CDC should be the most trusted resource for facts on this or any other health issue. Facts matter. Science matters. Truth matters. Politics shouldn’t carry any weight on this issue. Politicians care about their brand and remaining in power. Scientists and medical professionals care about the facts that sustain well being. Choose your sources carefully. The obvious whoopers like those quoted above are laughable on their face. It’s the lies sprinkled with just a hint of truth that are the worst.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. No one is entitled to their own facts.

Here’s the CDC’s view of things. Be calm, rational, smart, and safe:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...-response.html

[OTRA15]

Originally Posted by Al and Missy

I know this is what you meant, but just to be clear, folks who contract the virus have a 14.8% chance of dying, based on the current and preliminary statistics.
. . .

Thanks for trying to clear things up, but your copy and paste partial quote took things out of context IMO. See Post #18, where the 14.8% mortality rate was right under the bar chart, which made things graphically clear IMO.

No point in rehashing it.

Subsequent posts by Lynn [eubank] contain additional links and references which are helpful IMO.

Gonna bow out here, before things spiral out of control into further confusion IMO. Please read Post #18 in full.

Cheers,

Peter

[BayouBiker]

Originally Posted by Lily&Me

What is your source for this information, that it is “incorrect” there is more unknown than known about this virus? You’re talking about scientific mapping, while I’m talking about an epidemic of unknown proportion.

My sources the CDC and John Hopkins, along with more than 70 years of viral studies.

It is factually true the models hind cast spread in Korea and Italy accurately, they also have a long history of accurately forecasting flu from year to year. Therefore it is rational to conclude the forecast of COVID is accurate. More is understood how this spreads than is unknown, it is very unlikely there will be an epidemic of unknown proportion, and your unsupported suppositions are incorrect.

Originally Posted by Lily&Me

I’m not gleaning this information from editorials, nor do I believe that being rationally aware and reasonably cautious is alarmist.

Previously you stated your information was from the WAPO, NYT, and Chicago Tribune. Strike one. Next you stated society collectively is woefully unaware (your term was "more is unknown than is known"). Strike two. Finally it is wrong to imply others are suggesting its not reasonable to be cautious. Strike three.

Originally Posted by Lily&Me

If you look at what the health care system in China is dealing with, our country becoming overwhelmed if large numbers become seriously ill is a definite possibility.

China is a very poor analog to the USA and should not be used to predict US patterns. It is both alarmist to and irresponsible to apply poor analogs and use that to predict scary scenarios.

Originally Posted by Lily&Me

A year to year and a half to deploy a vaccine doesn’t protect anyone now.

Developing a vaccine is an appropriate response to the threat. Scaring people into a panic, not so much.

Originally Posted by Lily&Me

As with any potential threat, i.e. tornadoes, hurricanes, etc., there is always an element of worst case scenario.

That doesn’t mean you don’t watch the storm system move thru your area and take shelter when needed.

Maggie

Weather is highly variable, the model inputs are chaotic and the models are inaccurate so one must anticipate wide error margins.

Alarmist proclamations lead to panic and irrational over reaction. People are hoarding toilet paper and precipitating unnecessary economic gyrations. Thank goodness less sensationalist reality will soon return to our lives, it always does.

When it does, we will find that significant adjustments will be necessary in the short term if you are unwell and aged, the rest of us will return to our daily business while appropriately accommodating the urgent needs of those with preexisting conditions.

[davidz71]

I don't understand the hysteria over Caronavirus. It is indeed a extremely bad flu and if you have pre-existing health issues that have lowered your immune system then you should be washing your hands regularly anyway. I run a Glock pistol simulator at work and 3.5 years ago when we aquitted the system we decided to have big bottles of hand sanitizer available. No one enters the simulator theatre to participate without getting a squirt of the Purell. This makes sure no one passes something from one person to another when handling the equipment.

[Lily&Me]

I don’t see any citations, BayouBiker, but neither am I going to try to rebut your distorted interpretations of what I have posted.

Good luck to you,

Maggie

[Countryboy59]

When every news station’s banner reads “outbreak” for hours on end, I know it’s media BS. The toilet paper hoarding is because the media has people believing they will be quarantined.

Meanwhile people can’t stop driving around railroad crossing gates or driving like idiots.

[RamRider]

For those interested here is an excellent publication by the Smithsonian about the flu of 1918/19:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/histo...ear-180965222/

Be aware of what is happening in your area, be personally prepared and above all educate yourself and family about the possible severity of this outbreak.

This virus will not be easy to contain if citizens and or government try to ignore it.

[BayouBiker]

Links to Johns Hopkins https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/ and the CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/ were previously provided by myself and others. If anyone wants to point out the distortions, I'd be happy to explain them better.

[Rocinante]

As of now we still intend to spend a couple of months this summer on Michigan's Upper Peninsula, volunteering with the National Park Service. We'll keep following up on what's happening with Covid-19 and may change our plans if necessary.

[NCMEDIC]

I work for an Italian company, headquartered in northern Italy near Milan. They are on full lock down, and they advise that the local healthcare resources are under considerable strain.

We have cancelled ALL international flights for our employees, and have also cancelled all non-essential domestic travel as well.

If we see this virus spread here to the same extent that it has spread in Italy, it will have a large impact.

[Troutboy]

Regardless of your personal feeling on this situation, and whether or not this is worse, the same or better than the normal flu, we can’t ignore the economic and social impacts this is having in the world and about to happen in the US. Supply chains are being disrupted, an entire country (Italy) has been placed on lock down etc etc etc. Be cautious, use common sense, and dont take this for granted, the health impacts as well as economic.

I run a large company and there is no doubt this will create a slowdown or recession. I’m not here to debate how deep or how long, but it will happen. Be prepared. Our belief is we have a social responsibility to do our part to prevent the sp[read of COVID and protect those most vulnerable to it.

This is the best site IMO to track the virus reliably (Johns Hopkins) ....

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

Also, perception is reality.... 18 days ago Italy had one case of COVID19... today its 9600, out of a population of 61M... 9600 cases is shutting the country down.... what is the magic number for US, i dont know. 7 days ago it was one person, now its 760+...... This wave is about to hit....

Don’t panic, but be prepared, it is totally naive IMO to think that you or someone you know wont be impacted in some way by this (health and/or economic). We cant control the irrational thoughts and actions of others, but those thoughts and actions may use drive us into the next recession. (Are you ready for that).....

[WhereStream]

Originally Posted by lsbrodsky

I see that over 18,000 people in this country have died from the flu this year.

Influenza strains vary, year to year. The Spanish flu of 1918-19 killed many more than that — a half a million died, at least, in the United States alone.

Worldwide, it is estimated that the Spanish flu claimed many millions of lives (17 to 50 million, perhaps double that).

That’s why concern is high. There is no vaccine and no treatment, other than addressing symptoms, as of yet.

It is serious business.

[rowiebowie]

Two huge differences between Covid19 and the Spanish Flu of 1918.

1) The extreme difference in our ability to travel, come in contact with many others, and potentially spread this virus.

2) Current economies depend on last-minute restocking of items that is possible with today's technology and more centralized production of goods. This makes supply shortages more likely in any type of emergency event.

I'm not advocating any particular position on how limited or widespread the infection rate will be, but I believe economic disruptions will be on much wider scale than past pandemics (if it comes to that). Making it a good idea to stock enough food and essentials for a few weeks at all times, even if you don't live in a hurricane prone coastal area like me.

My Mother once told me that while growing up in deep South Texas they never knew there was a depression. Besides having their own well for clean water and a backyard privy for sanitation, they grew some small crops, raised chickens for meat and eggs, and had an Uncle with a nearby dairy farm for meat and milk. Those days of self-sustainability within a community are gone.

[InterBlog]

Originally Posted by BayouBiker

Links to Johns Hopkins https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/ and the CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/ were previously provided by myself and others. If anyone wants to point out the distortions, I'd be happy to explain them better.

Johns Hopkins says "Doctors and scientists are working on estimating the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be higher than that of most strains of the flu."

I cannot find any location where this cited source, Johns Hopkins, states anything resembling "most flu is much deadlier (nearly 4 times)".

The percentages deriving from WHO's collaboration with the Chinese... they may not hold true in America. This is widely acknowledged.

However, the issue is that we need figures right now, upon which to base our personal decisions.

If the best-available figures are later proven wrong in the American context, fine - then we adjust our personal decisions accordingly as better info emerges.

But right now, what we have is about 15% mortality for the 80+ age group. That is what's on the table right now, from the WHO in collaboration with the Chinese.

And that has huge moral implications for all of us. Unless we personally believe in euthanasia, we better do whatever is reasonable to keep from contributing to the spread of this thing.

If tomorrow we find out it's actually 0.15% mortality for the 80+ American age group, OK, that's a different decision.

[OTRA15]

Originally Posted by InterBlog

. . .
. . . If the best-available figures are later proven wrong in the American context, fine - then we adjust our personal decisions accordingly as better info emerges.

But right now, what we have is about 15% mortality for the 80+ age group.
. . .

Bingo!

Your entire post is very well said. Thank you.

Peter

[BayouBiker]

Significant economic disruptions will only occur to the extent business are required to shut down. It is not clear to me at all that is inevitable. Clearly some smaller segments of the economy will see temporary slow downs like events and travel until society as a whole adopts a more realistic and long term approach to this as compared to the current short term somewhat panicked reactions. Clearly as this continues, people will have to get on with their lives while still protecting those vulnerable.

Quite possibly due to not having an effective pandemic strategy and plan that is appropriate for this kind of modest threat, China and Italy were not properly prepared so their hands were tied and they were somewhat forced to extreme measures. Italy is not halting work, they are banning travel to slow the spread.

[FCloud9]

I hesitated adding to this thread after reading early this morning when there were only two pages but my professional education and health care experience left me no choice to add to the thread.

Please be careful contributing to misinformation on this important topic.


I'm an Airstreamer currently retired after working as a critical care nurse and clinical research professional for 40 yrs. It is crucial during this COVID 19 pandemic to obtain best sources of current information as it changes not only say by day but hour by hour.

Please consider following John Hopkins COVID 19 online resources:

General COVID 19 Resource Center - https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

JHU COVID 19 GLOBAL Tracker- https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html


Worldometer (another online tracker)- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Another excellent source is YouTube critical care MD channel:
https://youtu.be/U7F1cnWup9M

Take care everyone and be safe during this time.
FCloud9