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Old 03-14-2022, 03:59 PM   #1
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Throwing in the towel....

Well….we have decided to cancel our order for the 2022 Globetrotter 25 FBT. Based on current/future market conditions, we can no longer justify the purchase of the Globetrotter. After 2 years of planning, we ordered it last year and it is forecasted to finally be built in the next few weeks. They actually moved up the build date which I think indicates factory orders are beginning to slow down or the supply chain is improving (unlikely). After looking at all the variables, it no longer fits our use pattern. We have 3 homes spread out between Chicago, Arizona and N. Idaho. Our plan was to use the trailer to travel between our homes throughout the year, taking short 3 or 4 day excursions along the way between homes. This would have required lots of travel miles (fuel) and camping costs. Our use does not include pull and park trips for extended periods of time. Our logic to cancel included the following. Note that these are just my views and not provided as a platform for debate for those who disagree:

- The cost of fuel is climbing daily and based on current policies and government “leadership”, it is not going to change in the short to mid term.
- Inflation is out of control and not expected to change based on same factors as noted above. Even with “leadership” change, getting it back in control will not be easy or quick.
- A recession of some degree is quite likely looming ahead coming. This will affect RV valuation, meaning I would be paying for something at the top of market.
- The RV market is on the brink of significant decline. Just look at the number of new or slightly used trailers that have come up for sale over the last few months. Many people who should have never bought an RV are coming to the realization it makes no financial sense. Inflation and fuel prices are now a reality. Cancellations of factory orders are going to escalate, probably why my order is actually being built earlier than expected.
- The supply chain issues are not going to improve, for many reasons, until changes in “leadership” occurs. That makes getting repairs, upgrades, etc. very difficult and frustrating.
- My purchase agreement included an addendum that if I cancelled, my deposit would be refunded when the dealer sells the trailer. The market is still active so hopefully that will not be an issue.

Again, just my logic, as flawed as it may be. No intention of creating a fire storm of arguments but only providing MY logic for canceling. I envy and respect the people here that are fully committed to their RV’s and use them with a vengeance. My issues don’t apply to you. Maybe things will change over the next couple and years and I will jump back in. For now…..over and out. Cheers.
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Old 03-14-2022, 04:15 PM   #2
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Sorry to hear that you are opting out but I think it's likely you'll get your deposit back.

It'll be interesting to see what impact increasing fuel prices have on RVing.
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Old 03-21-2022, 05:20 PM   #3
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From a purely practical standpoint, your rationale is solid. I'd add that you forgot to include the loss of the petro-dollar as a reserve currency now that Saudi Arabia is willing to transact in Yuan. This move will have more impact on us that anything that's happened in the past 50-years.

But .. you didn't buy an Airstream because it was practical. You can save $ by going with a number of competitors also made by Thor. An Airstream is a premium product that by it's nature of being aluminum, will hold value. Moreover, as the dollar becomes less valuable due to inflation and the loss of reserve currency status, the value of material objects like the Airstream will be relatively stable. I'd rather be a borrower during times of inflation than a lender and I'd rather hold an asset that has a chance of stability as opposed to a pickup truck that will simply go down in value.

YMMV
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Old 03-21-2022, 07:19 PM   #4
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As you noted, Airstream is the only option I would consider. The actual cost is not an issue. It is more of a "right thing to do" issue, in our specific case. Very tough decision. It seems I always buy high and sell low for things I really want. In this case, it is clear the RV market is changing. All of a sudden I see many other people finding over the last couple of weeks that the factory is actually delivering ahead of schedule....when was the last time that happened? Something is going on and it is not an improvement in supply chain. Anyway, I will likely jump back in sooner than I think if what happens is what I think is going to happen. In the meantime, I'll follow everyone out there enjoying their AS as they are intended to be used. Crazy times we are in. All the best.
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Old 03-21-2022, 09:39 PM   #5
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Currently 14 trailers (2021 model) and 3 trailers (2022 model) for sale in the classifieds. I don't think you'll have a hard time finding a trailer if you change your mind in the next year or two. With C-19 worries fading away, and the folks that purchased a trailer to get through the last two years finding out it's not all it's cracked up to be selling out, the bubble maybe starting to pop.

Question becomes, "What about your truck?"

Enjoy,
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Old 03-21-2022, 09:54 PM   #6
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My 2¢:
Quote:
- The cost of fuel is climbing daily and based on current policies and government “leadership”, it is not going to change in the short to mid term.
I agree, but that affects the cost of airfare too if you’re traveling between areas of the country. Of course it will affect driving more, but really, what’s a few hundred extra dollars a year to enjoy camping in an Airstream.
Quote:
-Inflation is out of control and not expected to change based on same factors as noted above. Even with “leadership” change, getting it back in control will not be easy or quick.
Again, I agree with the premise, but don’t follow the conclusion. With increasing inflation you want debt and assets. Debt gets inflated away while assets gain value. Money in the bank is the worst thing you can have.

Quote:
-A recession of some degree is quite likely looming ahead coming. This will affect RV valuation, meaning I would be paying for something at the top of market.
Perhaps this is true for the used market, but for a new Airstream I haven’t seen them raising their price drastically the last few years. The used market is arguably at a high point for a perhaps a bit, but with inflation I don’t see the new market prices ever getting cheaper than they are today.

Quote:
-The RV market is on the brink of significant decline. Just look at the number of new or slightly used trailers that have come up for sale over the last few months. Many people who should have never bought an RV are coming to the realization it makes no financial sense. Inflation and fuel prices are now a reality. Cancellations of factory orders are going to escalate, probably why my order is actually being built earlier than expected.
True, to a degree. I think we’re looking more at a lull in the market, but I think the long term trend isn’t changing. A lot more people are permanently working remotely now. Major companies are shedding fixed office spaces in the realization of this. I think more people are selling houses and full time RVing than the reverse. I’ve seen no decline in park usage. We did have such a surge that there’s bound to be a drawback, but Airstream never caught up with the surge to begin with, so I don’t see their prices declining with the drawback. As I said, I can see the used market declining a bit in the short term, but not the new.

Quote:
-The supply chain issues are not going to improve, for many reasons, until changes in “leadership” occurs. That makes getting repairs, upgrades, etc. very difficult and frustrating.
Makes things harder sometimes, but this wouldn’t be a deal breaker for me.
Quote:
-My purchase agreement included an addendum that if I cancelled, my deposit would be refunded when the dealer sells the trailer. The market is still active so hopefully that will not be an issue.
I think you’ll have no trouble getting your deposit back.
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Old 03-21-2022, 10:16 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rideair View Post

Question becomes, "What about your truck?"

Enjoy,
Truck was purchased to replace my F150 and pull the AS but I have many other uses for it. It was built way faster than I expected. Fortunately it is worth $10-15k more than I paid for it.
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Old 03-21-2022, 10:30 PM   #8
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I’ll be the provocative one and will say: why do you need three houses? Many of the problems we face in this world are due to exactly this type of way of living. Arguing the inflation is the reason you cannot fulfill a hobby, not sure about that one. I live in areas of California where locals cannot find a home to rent (yet alone afford) because entire towns are made of vacation homes / Airbnb hotels. Sell all your houses, buy the Airstream and go explore the world. It might surprise you what you will find.
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Old 03-21-2022, 10:31 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AKNate View Post
My 2¢:

I agree, but that affects the cost of airfare too if you’re traveling between areas of the country. Of course it will affect driving more, but really, what’s a few hundred extra dollars a year to enjoy camping in an Airstream.

Again, I agree with the premise, but don’t follow the conclusion. With increasing inflation you want debt and assets. Debt gets inflated away while assets gain value. Money in the bank is the worst thing you can have.


Perhaps this is true for the used market, but for a new Airstream I haven’t seen them raising their price drastically the last few years. The used market is arguably at a high point for a perhaps a bit, but with inflation I don’t see the new market prices ever getting cheaper than they are today.


True, to a degree. I think we’re looking more at a lull in the market, but I think the long term trend isn’t changing. A lot more people are permanently working remotely now. Major companies are shedding fixed office spaces in the realization of this. I think more people are selling houses and full time RVing than the reverse. I’ve seen no decline in park usage. We did have such a surge that there’s bound to be a drawback, but Airstream never caught up with the surge to begin with, so I don’t see their prices declining with the drawback. As I said, I can see the used market declining a bit in the short term, but not the new.


Makes things harder sometimes, but this wouldn’t be a deal breaker for me.


I think you’ll have no trouble getting your deposit back.
As I mentioned a couple of times, my situation and issues are not the same as others. I’ve simply chosen to put the $120k into something that makes more sense at this time in this environment of uncertainty. Decisions and life circumstances change over time, especially with what has happened over the last year or so. I’m guessing others are in the same situation.
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Old 03-22-2022, 12:48 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikemdd View Post
Truck was purchased to replace my F150 and pull the AS but I have many other uses for it. It was built way faster than I expected. Fortunately it is worth $10-15k more than I paid for it.
Which is only relevant if you sell it now, correct?


Quote:
Originally Posted by CMHM View Post
I’ll be the provocative one and will say: why do you need three houses? Many of the problems we face in this world are due to exactly this type of way of living. Arguing the inflation is the reason you cannot fulfill a hobby, not sure about that one. I live in areas of California where locals cannot find a home to rent (yet alone afford) because entire towns are made of vacation homes / Airbnb hotels. Sell all your houses, buy the Airstream and go explore the world. It might surprise you what you will find.
Great point.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikemdd View Post
As I mentioned a couple of times, my situation and issues are not the same as others. I’ve simply chosen to put the $120k into something that makes more sense at this time in this environment of uncertainty. Decisions and life circumstances change over time, especially with what has happened over the last year or so. I’m guessing others are in the same situation.
I don't know what to say, but the points you were responding to above were valid. It seems like you set this conversation up by your original post, making statements about gas prices, supply chains issues, the current president, etc. and also seemingly stating that there should be no debate about your reasons for bowing out:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikemdd View Post
Note that these are just my views and not provided as a platform for debate for those who disagree.

Again, just my logic, as flawed as it may be. No intention of creating a fire storm of arguments but only providing MY logic for canceling. I envy and respect the people here that are fully committed to their RV’s and use them with a vengeance. My issues don’t apply to you.
Not sure why you even posted all of that in the first instance then? I am confused by all of this, but respect your decision even if I disagree with it.
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Old 03-22-2022, 04:33 AM   #11
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I'll be the provocative one and point out that blaming the current administration is extremely myopic. What is happening now is a result of many world events, decades of war and an unprecedented pandemic that has killed millions across the globe and thrown virtually every industry into chaos.

That said, let me know if you're interested in a 2021 25' Globetrotter. It's listed in the classifieds

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Old 03-22-2022, 05:25 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by jondrew55 View Post
I'll be the provocative one and point out that blaming the current administration is extremely myopic. What is happening now is a result of many world events, decades of war and an unprecedented pandemic that has killed millions across the globe and thrown virtually every industry into chaos.

Yep ...
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Old 03-22-2022, 05:36 AM   #13
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Seems like your reasons for canceling are a thinly disguised political rant. Your reasons for buying/canceling are yours. What I wonder is how a person, using this logic, would have ever been able to make a decision to buy 1 house, let alone 3.
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Old 03-22-2022, 06:06 AM   #14
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Everyone has different reasons for buying selling Airstreams or RV's in general. Unlike buying a home(primary residence), or even a primary vehicle which could be considered necessity purchases, RV's are secondary or luxury purchases. Truly a first world issue when it comes to decisions regarding their purchase or sale so you have to respect and consider everyone's unique situation. But the OP threw his scenario out there so I will, with respect of course, throw in my thoughts.
I really think that you almost have to separate Airstreams and the rest of the travel trailer world. The brand has survived almost 100 years through wars, recessions, bad economies, good economies and now a global pandemic that at its onset, many thought secondary items like RV's would be an afterthought. Look what happened. The Airstream will hold its value more so than other brand. That is a fact. It will be an asset. If the whole world economic system crumbles, you will have bigger problems than selling an Airstream.
I work in an industry directly related to manufacturing and yes we have dealt with supply chain issues. We do see hints of supply chain improving. Is that the reason for AS production increases? Maybe, maybe not. Maybe now that the pandemic is subsiding, folks are just going back to work(and staying there). Fuel cost is up, yes but you are going to spend more money driving and/or flying to your other homes. I dare ask anyone who is considering selling a late model Airstream if after it is sold, would they still plan on taking a vacation of some kind. That will cost money in lodging, fuel, etc. So you are giving up one luxury to partake in another, just through different means?
When I bought our AS, I was toying with the idea of a second home. A little cabin in the woods or on a beach somewhere as a getaway always appealed to me.(and still does to some degree). Yes, a brick and mortar home will in most cased hold value and hopefully appreciate , thus reducing the risk of the debt. But in the case of recession or all out crash, which type of real estate will tank first? Plus, a second(or 3rd) home is a finite location. You cannot pick it up and move it somewhere else. I can take my Airstream anywhere. I could have bought another brand, and paid cash for it. But then 10 years later I would be buying another one. So I borrowed a little more money and bough the AS. When we retire in a few years, it will paid for and we can use it for many years to come, Lord willing.
Good luck on whatever you decide!
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Old 03-22-2022, 06:13 AM   #15
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I don't think the OP was looking to cause a dust up. I think they're frustrated by lots of things as we all are and was venting. Let's try to be civil in our discussions here. This is a much nicer forum than others because we generally respect each other.
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Old 03-22-2022, 06:36 AM   #16
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All comments seem to be very respectful, IMO.
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Old 03-22-2022, 08:03 AM   #17
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I would venture to say, everyone commenting on Airfoums is a blessed person in their own way, family, friends, money, experiences, etc... What we do with those blessings is up to each and every one of us. I've seen people inherit $500,000.00 bucks' cash, to be broke three years later, while others took and build that wealth to $1,000,000.00. Then there's the guy that has a great wife/kids who then has to have the new corvette/blonde and loose it all. Others might have made a boat load of money in their life, had a blast and died poor, but they lived three lives in the span of one.

What he decides to do about buying a trailer, I can fully understand, not sure I'd buy a new one right now (or ever) but I'm cheap. There was only one thing that I didn't understand or agree with and that was:
"A house in Chicago, are you nuts?" I would say "Run, Forest, Run".

Have fun in your retirement, you've got your reasons. I will make no judgement on what you're doing until I can walk on water.

Enjoy,
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