Hurricane Coming: Emergency Shelter

[jondrew55]

So Hurricane Helene should be forming in the next day or so and will be headed up the western side of Florida. Current track keeps it pretty much out of my area in Orlando, but you never know what could happen. I can't remember the name of the last hurricane that hit us where we lost power, but we were without power for over a week. At the time, we had a Class A motorhome and brought it home and lived off the generator to get out of the heat at night. The problem was, our storage facility was without power and we did not have access to our rig for 3 days.

We now have our Flying cloud and keep it in covered storage a few miles from the house. My question is, should I bring it home before the storm and leave it in the street "just in case", or wait to see if we need it and hope this new storage place has it's act together? I kinda prefer leaving it under cover during an actual storm as opposed to putting it in the road and hoping trees and debris don't damage it, but the covered facility could be damaged too. We have a generator to run the AC if needed.

What would you do?

[Andy543]

I would put the Airstream inside. The debris flying around in a hurricane can cause a lot of very expensive damage to an aluminum trailer.

[BikeCamper]

I would keep it at the covered storage.

Here’s hoping the storm stays well clear of you.

[Mollysdad]

I'm in Tampa and watching with caution.
I have the Airstream in covered storage inland about 30 miles and would never bring it home before a storm. The danger of flying tree limbs and trash cans is too great.
During hurricane Ian, I stayed a day in the trailer under the cover. It missed me by 100 miles, but the driving rain was impressive.
The Airstream was Plan B if the house was damaged (It was fine).
We're on the right edge of the cone, but the 'spaghetti' models all agree that it's going into the panhandle near Tallahassee.
I pray that Topsail Hill SP doesn't catch the brunt. It should be on the 'good side'.
(as the storm moves North, most of the wind and rain will be east of the track.)
The BEST tracker I've found is Mike's Weather Page. It follows everything in thumbnails.
IMO, Orlando will be fine. Rain.
https://spaghettimodels.com

I remember driving I-10 after hurricane Michael went through that area. It was eye popping that for about 20 miles, every billboard, road sign, exit sign, milepost was flattened. In areas every tree was broken off and laying facing the gulf. Crews worked for two years picking up the trees laying across the armco barrier and repairing damage.

[Mollysdad]

Another great tool is "Ventusky"
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=31.4;-80.5;3&l=wind-100m

Here I entered wind speed 100m above ground. I'm knocking on wood that the prevailing wind across the Gulf is E to W, hopefully holding the track offshore.

[uncle_bob]

Hi

How lucky do you feel?

All of these charts are just guesses. By the time you have good information, it's likely to late to change things around. 30 to 40 MPH winds probably aren't a big deal. Double those numbers and you move into the "likely a big deal" range. Will the forecast get it right? Who knows .....

We've had the remains of hurricanes go over us a number of times. Even that has been a bit crazy (into the 60 MPH gusts range). If I'd had a choice, the RV would have been "inside" during those events.

Bob

[moosetags]

We are in the Western Florida Panhandle near Destin. Helene is now looking like it is going to hit somewhat east of us, but you never know. Our Airstream is out behind the house and is not covered. We don't have any big trees
close-by. We plan to stay right here unless Helene takes a hard turn to the west. If that happens, we will hook her up and head out in the direction that makes the most sense.

As to the OP's question, do what makes the most sense in your situation.

Brian

[Mollysdad]

The 11 am cone is in and it's good news and bad news.
Good news for the Tampa area because we're no longer in the cone. This is more due to the cone narrowing as it gets closer than the cone shifting west.
The bad news is it's supposed to make landfall as a "M" major storm, (cat 3 or greater). I guess a silver lining is that area is not as populated as a major population center like St. Pete/Tampa.
The spaghetti models have not been updated since 1200 GMT
It now has a name, Helene and winds of 45 mph.

[Andy543]

It's good to have insurance coverage for an Airstream. Repairs can be very expensive. Some insurance companies don't even cover Airstreams.

RV insurance is similar to homeowner's insurance, as opposed to car insurance. In Florida, homeowners and RV insurance can be extremely expensive. One way to get around this is to park your RV at a non-Florida location for most of the year, if that works out for you.

[Mollysdad]

Originally Posted by moosetags

We are in the Western Florida Panhandle near Destin. Helene is now looking like it is going to hit somewhat east of us,

If there's any good news it's being west of the track is much better than east. Because of the direction and speed of travel and the rotation of the storm, the greatest wind and rain will be on the East side.
Looks like Destin is about 115 miles to Apalachicola, where it might be headed.
It's also sped up a bit since the 5 am track. Now 12 mph.
It was 6 mph yesterday. The faster it moves the sooner it will pass and less time to gain strength.

[BikeCamper]

Originally Posted by Mollysdad

If there's any good news it's being west of the track is much better than east. Because of the direction and speed of travel and the rotation of the storm, the greatest wind and rain will be on the East side.
Looks like Destin is about 115 miles to Apalachicola, where it might be headed.
It's also sped up a bit since the 5 am track. Now 12 mph.
It was 6 mph yesterday. The faster it moves the sooner it will pass and less time to gain strength.

The “cone of uncertainty” and the spaghetti graphs are predicting the most likely path for the eye of the storm. But they don’t show the full area of hurricane impact, which is more difficult to predict.

This is already a big storm, dimensionally. In the 90th percentile, as far as size.

Satellite imagery, as well as storm surge, rainfall, and wind graphs can give a better sense of the extent of the storm and which areas will be most impacted. These show the latest, but everything is sure to evolve over the next 48 hours:

[Mollysdad]

Originally Posted by BikeCamper

The “cone of uncertainty” and the spaghetti graphs are predicting the most likely path for the eye of the storm. But they don’t show the full area of hurricane impact, which is more difficult to predict.

This is already a big storm, dimensionally. In the 90th percentile, as far as size.

I looked at the current weather for Cancun, MX. Scattered thunderstorms.
Now it will intensify greatly in the gulf, but with the short time before landfall, the spaghetti models are in agreement. The path is south to north, and the chances of a 90 deg turn are slim. Much different than Ian which was going sort of West to East and the only question was where it would hit.
In the end, we take the available tech, and make our best choice. I never take it lightly.

Funny: I was watching the Weather Channel one day and saw Jim Cantore getting soaked with spray. He said he was near the Gandy Bridge, which is about 15 minutes from me. My trees were not even moving, so I jumped in the car and drove to his location. Tampa Bay was choppy, and the waves hit the bulkheads on one corner of the bridge. That's where he was. If he moved 20' he wouldn't even get wet. His camera guy was dry.

[369goose]

Originally Posted by Mollysdad

I looked at the current weather for Cancun, MX. Scattered thunderstorms.
Now it will intensify greatly in the gulf, but with the short time before landfall, the spaghetti models are in agreement. The path is south to north, and the chances of a 90 deg turn are slim. Much different than Ian which was going sort of West to East and the only question was where it would hit.
In the end, we take the available tech, and make our best choice. I never take it lightly.

Funny: I was watching the Weather Channel one day and saw Jim Cantore getting soaked with spray. He said he was near the Gandy Bridge, which is about 15 minutes from me. My trees were not even moving, so I jumped in the car and drove to his location. Tampa Bay was choppy, and the waves hit the bulkheads on one corner of the bridge. That's where he was. If he moved 20' he wouldn't even get wet. His camera guy was dry.

Cantore is fake news. He was reportedly in Port Richey today. Should be interesting to go back and watch his programming later as often over the years he’s been staged in a worrisome situation but when you look closely the locals are walking all around within his shot and they’re dry and smiling. Somehow he makes a good living doing this.

[BikeCamper]

Originally Posted by Mollysdad

I looked at the current weather for Cancun, MX. Scattered thunderstorms.
Now it will intensify greatly in the gulf, but with the short time before landfall, the spaghetti models are in agreement. The path is south to north, and the chances of a 90 deg turn are slim. Much different than Ian which was going sort of West to East and the only question was where it would hit.
In the end, we take the available tech, and make our best choice. I never take it lightly.

Funny: I was watching the Weather Channel one day and saw Jim Cantore getting soaked with spray. He said he was near the Gandy Bridge, which is about 15 minutes from me. My trees were not even moving, so I jumped in the car and drove to his location. Tampa Bay was choppy, and the waves hit the bulkheads on one corner of the bridge. That's where he was. If he moved 20' he wouldn't even get wet. His camera guy was dry.

I got a big chuckle this morning from your Cantore story. Thanks!

[Mollysdad]

Originally Posted by BikeCamper

I got a big chuckle this morning from your Cantore story. Thanks!

There's so much invested in the latest/greatest weather technology that no service wants to say, "Nothing going on here."
They also put their staffers in real danger in the worst storms. Flying debris, road signs, and shingles all are dangerous.
Here's my favorite weather shots. Anderson Cooper reports live on how bad the flooding is.
Then the Weather channel gets busted with the obligatory 'leaning into the wind' shot.

[Mollysdad]

BTW, Do I detect a small shift west in the spaghetti models? More Apalachicola and less Tallahassee.
No change in the cone.
Just a quick observation, but using the longitude lines at 5º, it looks like the Tampa area is 2.5º or 150 NM or 175 statute miles. Shelters are open, evacuation orders for Zone A (close to the coast, mostly due to storm surge.)
JIC, I filled up the truck and got a few bucks in case I need to scram-a-vioux.
Cancun live cams show rain, overcast, but not much wind. (20's)

[369goose]

Originally Posted by Mollysdad

There's so much invested in the latest/greatest weather technology that no service wants to say, "Nothing going on here."
They also put their staffers in real danger in the worst storms. Flying debris, road signs, and shingles all are dangerous.
Here's my favorite weather shots. Anderson Cooper reports live on how bad the flooding is.
Then the Weather channel gets busted with the obligatory 'leaning into the wind' shot.

There you go! Exactly. Thanks for sharing.

[Mollysdad]

Currently in Tampa (8 am) there's light drizzle and almost no wind. I hate the waiting. The eye should be west of us this afternoon, making landfall around the Tallahassee area tonight.
Now moving NNE at 12 mph.

[TitusNW]

Always living on the west coast of the US I've never experienced a hurricane. Believing that the news media has to hype the actual conditions for ratings, I always check the NOAA weather buoys for conditions.


https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

On the west coast our sea temp is always around 65°, I'm amazed at the water temps in the Gulf, currently up to 86.2°

Steve

[Mollysdad]

Strangely, It's 11 am and I have blue sky. Yes, it's between bands.
Breezy. It's also increased speed to 14 mph on a heading NNE.
Top winds are 105, so no doubt it will reach 110 or cat 3 at some point. Although the tropical force winds extend pretty far, the hurricane force winds are very near the eye.