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Old 07-21-2017, 04:38 PM   #161
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The future is here . . .

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Old 07-21-2017, 05:06 PM   #162
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The future is here . . .

Who, what and where is exactly "here"?

If anything the posts in this thread have proven to me that "what" I thought was the future, is the present; you don't have to ask too many people "where" is the nearest recharging station, as far more than I thought are popping up all over; and "who" is buying into the electric vehicle as a daily driver and possible tow vehicle? Many more people than I thought.

I don't want this thread to vear away from its original intent and get into wind versus ,solar, coal or hydro, costs and how many birds we fry every year, or the fuel economy of Cummins diesels. This thread was to inform, not only myself, but others to the possibility of going electric maybe a lot closer than anyone thinks.

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Old 07-21-2017, 05:17 PM   #163
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. . .
. . . the possibility of going electric maybe a lot closer than anyone thinks.
. . .
Precisely . . .

Thanks again for starting the thread.

Peter
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Old 07-22-2017, 07:13 AM   #164
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The fuel economy (and longer life) of Cummins turbodiesels is ALWAYS relevant!!!🤐
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Old 07-22-2017, 08:29 AM   #165
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The fuel economy (and longer life) of Cummins turbodiesels is ALWAYS relevant!!!��
Not to this thread its not.

By the way, I have an Isuzu 6BD1 in my motorhome that gets almost 19 mpg (Imp gallon) and is endlessly rebuildable with removable sleeves (can't do that in a Cummins).

I understand the love of everything diesel; but the long term reliability of electric motors are far in a ways better than even diesel engines, as electric motors only have one moving part, not hundreds.

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Old 07-22-2017, 08:47 AM   #166
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. . . as electric motors only have one moving part, not hundreds.
. . .
One fascinating aspect of our test drive of the Tesla X, reported on ohmman's thread, was the low number of moving parts in the entire vehicle. I forget the number, but it seemed "wrong" to an internal combustion engine mind.

Just to remind everyone, Tesla is having a number of Tesla Explores events around the country this summer, so if you are near a location, it is an educational experience to drive a vehicle from the future . . .

. . . here now . . .



PS -- Nice custom Airstream sales room too!

https://www.tesla.com/teslaexplores
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Old 07-22-2017, 08:54 AM   #167
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I understand the love of everything diesel; but the long term reliability of electric motors are far in a ways better than even diesel engines, as electric motors only have one moving part, not hundreds.
It seems to me that the things that are really going to drive EV adoption moving forward are not the societal and environmental ethics arguments, but the economics and improved drive quality. Total cost of ownership, including fueling savings and minimal maintenance, should really start to make the cars attractive as the prices drop and battery reliability continues to improve. Many people who drive a well made EV agree that it's a vastly improved driving experience as well. This is one thing I think Tesla has done right - make a car that people want irrespective of the fact it's electric.

The second half of this year should be very interesting.
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Old 07-22-2017, 09:00 AM   #168
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That was 2016. 2017 reached my number. Note that my assertions are links to my sources.
Okay, I really want to stop arguing. Or as I prefer to call it, a spirited discussion. You're a dedicated pro solar advocate, and I'm a pro everything free market sceptic.
I accept that Texas did generate 20% of their electric needs in the first quarter of 2017. However, reading closer, one sees it wasn't because they had so many windmills, it's because Texas is unique in that it has wind during the day when the power requirements are greatest. That's due to the land mass heating under the blazing Texas Sun, and the air being replaced by cooler Gulf of Mexico air, causing wind. You can't duplicate that in Vermont by adding windmills.
I have a friend who holds three patents on a new windmill design. It uses vertical blades, and his idea was to pump water over large distances (not generate power). He's not a big advocate of wind power. (he swears Thorium reactors are the answer)
I hope you're right. I remain skeptical.
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Old 07-22-2017, 09:54 AM   #169
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Ah . . .

Peace on Earth

Thank you.

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Old 07-22-2017, 10:18 AM   #170
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It seems to me that the things that are really going to drive EV adoption moving forward are not the societal and environmental ethics arguments, but the economics and improved drive quality. Total cost of ownership, including fueling savings and minimal maintenance, should really start to make the cars attractive as the prices drop and battery reliability continues to improve. Many people who drive a well made EV agree that it's a vastly improved driving experience as well. This is one thing I think Tesla has done right - make a car that people want irrespective of the fact it's electric.

The second half of this year should be very interesting.
I agree with everything you say here, but to me the overriding issue is not battery reliability, but battery capacity. It seems like we are too early in the battery technology evolution for EV sales to ramp up very much. The one thing that will put EV sales into hyperdrive is battery technology that will provide 300 mile range on a single charge and less than 30 minute recharge. That's a ways off.
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Old 07-22-2017, 10:44 AM   #171
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There's a fundamental difference between technology and the laws of physics. Technology progresses at a pace that we can't generally imagine. We've seen huge advances in technology. However the laws of physics don't change. You cannot create energy: just capture and convert it to work.
There are physical limitations that will always exist. For a given location Theres only so much solar energy that is available/ square meter in a 12 hour period. There's a certain amount of work (energy) that is required to move a 12000 lb truck/trailer combination up a 2000 ft incline, as an example. The work-energy theorem provides your theoretical limits. That's it.
Technology is wonderful but it cannot suspend the laws of physics for you.
Do your research and get out your calculators. Then you'll see the limitations.
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Old 07-22-2017, 11:10 AM   #172
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I agree with everything you say here, but to me the overriding issue is not battery reliability, but battery capacity. It seems like we are too early in the battery technology evolution for EV sales to ramp up very much. The one thing that will put EV sales into hyperdrive is battery technology that will provide 300 mile range on a single charge and less than 30 minute recharge. That's a ways off.
I agree that battery reliability is a solved issue, but not all manufacturers have shown their willingness to implement a serious battery management system (BMS). It requires an investment in thermal management. My Model S is 3.5 years old and has dropped 2 miles off of its range in 40k miles. That's a testament to the BMS and battery chemistry. Meanwhile, the 1st generation Leafs from that time have experienced drastic reductions because Nissan didn't include robust thermal management.

300 miles on a single charge is available today (Tesla Model S/Model X 100D). Charging to full in 30 minutes is not, but I would suggest that by the end of the year you'll see at least an announcement about upgrading chargers on major highways to support at least double the existing rate. That'll get you very close. Remember that you don't want to charge to full most of the time anyway, as the battery charge tapers near the top. On standard road trips today, I don't spend any longer than 30 minutes charging.
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Old 07-22-2017, 06:19 PM   #173
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I agree that battery reliability is a solved issue, but not all manufacturers have shown their willingness to implement a serious battery management system (BMS). It requires an investment in thermal management. My Model S is 3.5 years old and has dropped 2 miles off of its range in 40k miles. That's a testament to the BMS and battery chemistry. Meanwhile, the 1st generation Leafs from that time have experienced drastic reductions because Nissan didn't include robust thermal management.

300 miles on a single charge is available today (Tesla Model S/Model X 100D). Charging to full in 30 minutes is not, but I would suggest that by the end of the year you'll see at least an announcement about upgrading chargers on major highways to support at least double the existing rate. That'll get you very close. Remember that you don't want to charge to full most of the time anyway, as the battery charge tapers near the top. On standard road trips today, I don't spend any longer than 30 minutes charging.
Battery is a solved issue ? Just like Climet Change ha?
None of this make any sense. As I said in my previous post, we been tinkering with this for over 100 years maybe something will come of it the next hundred years. Or we could be still subsidizing it than.
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Old 07-22-2017, 08:05 PM   #174
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Battery is a solved issue ? Just like Climet Change ha?
None of this make any sense. As I said in my previous post, we been tinkering with this for over 100 years maybe something will come of it the next hundred years. Or we could be still subsidizing it than.
We've been subsidizing fossil fuels for more than a hundred years, because what we pay doesn't take into account the effect on the environment.
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Old 07-22-2017, 09:25 PM   #175
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...we been tinkering with this for over 100 years maybe something will come of it the next hundred years.
You know that lithium ion batteries aren't 100 years old, right?

You seem to think that a current model Tesla is the same as a 1917 Detroit Electric.

That is comical.
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Old 07-23-2017, 10:51 AM   #176
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Battery is a solved issue ? Just like Climet Change ha?
None of this make any sense. As I said in my previous post, we been tinkering with this for over 100 years maybe something will come of it the next hundred years. Or we could be still subsidizing it than.
In a couple years there will be as many electric cars on the road as there are diesels. I would say something has already "come of it".
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Old 07-23-2017, 02:44 PM   #177
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Where does all that electricity come from to power those electric cars?
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Old 07-23-2017, 02:59 PM   #178
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Where does all that electricity come from to power those electric cars?


Depends on where you are. At my house and that of quite a few EV owners, rooftop solar. All grids are a blend of energy sources. Even the dirtiest electricity source, coal, is still vastly cleaner and societally cheaper than distributed vehicle emissions from gasoline, though. Electric cars also get cleaner with the grid. An ICE generally doesn't improve without major changes.
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Old 07-23-2017, 10:09 PM   #179
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Depends on where you are. At my house and that of quite a few EV owners, rooftop solar. All grids are a blend of energy sources. Even the dirtiest electricity source, coal, is still vastly cleaner and societally cheaper than distributed vehicle emissions from gasoline, though. Electric cars also get cleaner with the grid. An ICE generally doesn't improve without major changes.
I'm interested in learning more. I'm confused by the statement, "Even the dirtiest electricity source, coal, is still vastly cleaner and societally cheaper than distributed vehicle emissions from gasoline, though." Can you explain more? Thanks!
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Old 07-23-2017, 11:02 PM   #180
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I'm interested in learning more. I'm confused by the statement, "Even the dirtiest electricity source, coal, is still vastly cleaner and societally cheaper than distributed vehicle emissions from gasoline, though." Can you explain more? Thanks!
Clearly coal is a bad choice for electricity generation from an externalities perspective. Mortality effect from coal is extremely high.

However, healthcare costs (societal expense) are also quite high as attributed to ICE vehicles. As always, attribution is difficult. Most recent studies include climate-health related estimates but a recent one that doesn't appear to have included that effect put the cost at about 75 cents per gallon of gasoline consumed. Mainly this is due to the distributed emissions of gas vehicles. Yes, you're shifting the chips from the tailpipe to the coal-fired plants in my example, but a few early surveys have shown that once one has an EV, solar becomes even more economically viable and therefore more readily adopted.

And while none of that is exactly definitive, the carbon studies done so far have been favorable for EVs in coal country.

The final point I'd like to make is regarding market forces. Purchasing an EV that today might have a higher lifecycle carbon output but has the promise of advancing an industry that will tremendously diminish carbon and other societal external costs is a bit like Adam Smith's invisible hand. There are downstream savings to consider from economic, health and wellness, and lifespan perspectives. So while EVs still appear to win on all of the metrics today, they are poised to be more broadly beneficial when they're adopted on a larger scale. The only way to a larger scale is by early adoption.

Apologies if that got soapbox-y. I've honestly been trying to stay off of it.
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