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Old 07-11-2017, 05:46 AM   #81
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This has been an interesting read. It appears that, to most people, "future" means during their lifetime. Whatever the rationale, the ICE will be replaced by another technology eventually. It's fuel is a non-renewable resource that will become too expensive to burn. Modern extractive methods, i.e., FRACKING, may extend the reserves, but not create new ones. I consider ANY carbon-based fuel as a temporary solution to the need to transport people and/or materials. Living in the past only delays the inevitable and leaves our children fewer alternatives, as we consume resources. Electric motors powered by fossil fuel and/or fission-based nuclear plants are only an interim, short-range solution. Let's get on with it!
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Old 07-11-2017, 06:10 AM   #82
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I think people get stuck on old thoughts. It may be human nature. People will tell ya all sorts of things ain't possible. Ya can't run a/c off solar, ya can't tow with electric, 12v fridges ain't reliable, ya can't chat with someone 2000 miles away in real time face to face, ya can't land on the moon, ya can't make a machine that actually flies....

Well, yes. Ya can.

I'm sure there was a time when folks thought nothin would ever pull a wagon better than a horse.
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Old 07-11-2017, 08:09 AM   #83
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http://www.exhausted.ca/2017/07/07/b...stion-engines/
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Old 07-11-2017, 08:12 AM   #84
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Well that oughta speed things up.
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Old 07-11-2017, 08:47 AM   #85
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France also wants to reduce their nuclear power from supplying 75% of their power needs to 50% by 2025 and shut down coal powered power plants by 2022.
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Old 07-11-2017, 09:32 AM   #86
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I think people get stuck on old thoughts. It may be human nature. People will tell ya all sorts of things ain't possible. Ya can't run a/c off solar, ya can't tow with electric, 12v fridges ain't reliable, ya can't chat with someone 2000 miles away in real time face to face, ya can't land on the moon, ya can't make a machine that actually flies....

Well, yes. Ya can.

I'm sure there was a time when folks thought nothin would ever pull a wagon better than a horse.
Hi

We can so of course we do. That's why there's such great cell phone coverage all over the entire country (and not just in the populated areas)

Just because technology can, economics ultimately holds the trump card.

The same economics that blank out cell phones in the places you'd like to haul your trailer to work against a profit making recharging network. Big cites are easy. For that matter densely populated countries are easy. Short range and lots of customers is good for people selling recharging. Heavily traveled long haul routes are harder, but still not insane (fewer customers). That big blank spot on the cell coverage map? Don't count on it being filled up with recharging stations real soon..... It needs to be filled in *before* you buy that all electric tow for your trailer, not after you haul it out there. It's not just plugging in a charger, the electric grid needs to be able to support it. A 300KW charger was mentioned earlier. Peak or not, that's a big load to drop in out in the middle of nowhere. The fancier you get to do it, the more it costs. Economics gets you one way or the other.

It's tempting to say that "everything gets cheaper with time". That's true of semiconductors. It's true of a lot of small electronics as a result. Go back and take a look at what a Chevy cost in 1960. Big heavy stuff does not always get cheaper. Electrical grids are big heavy stuff.

Is this urban / rural divide something that just came up? Well no it's not. You can go back at least to ancient Greece for good examples of the same thing. I'm sure technology will do wonderful things. It hasn't "solved" that divide in over 4,000 years.

Bob
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Old 07-11-2017, 10:37 PM   #87
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Hi

We can so of course we do. That's why there's such great cell phone coverage all over the entire country (and not just in the populated areas)

Just because technology can, economics ultimately holds the trump card.

The same economics that blank out cell phones in the places you'd like to haul your trailer to work against a profit making recharging network. Big cites are easy. For that matter densely populated countries are easy. Short range and lots of customers is good for people selling recharging. Heavily traveled long haul routes are harder, but still not insane (fewer customers). That big blank spot on the cell coverage map? Don't count on it being filled up with recharging stations real soon..... It needs to be filled in *before* you buy that all electric tow for your trailer, not after you haul it out there. It's not just plugging in a charger, the electric grid needs to be able to support it. A 300KW charger was mentioned earlier. Peak or not, that's a big load to drop in out in the middle of nowhere. The fancier you get to do it, the more it costs. Economics gets you one way or the other.

It's tempting to say that "everything gets cheaper with time". That's true of semiconductors. It's true of a lot of small electronics as a result. Go back and take a look at what a Chevy cost in 1960. Big heavy stuff does not always get cheaper. Electrical grids are big heavy stuff.

Is this urban / rural divide something that just came up? Well no it's not. You can go back at least to ancient Greece for good examples of the same thing. I'm sure technology will do wonderful things. It hasn't "solved" that divide in over 4,000 years.

Bob
FWIW, I was able to charge in many locations that had no cell service. Remember that 300kW charging isn't a necessity, it's a luxury. Places without cell service often don't have fossil fueling stations, either. There are vastly more "charging stations" than there are gas stations when you consider that any electrical outlet is a potential charger. Check out plugshare.com for maps showing a slice of the chargers available to the public.

However, I do agree that economics is going to be the driver if the goal is sustainability. EV charging is a tough business model because most people get most miles from their home charging solution. Chargepoint, EVgo, and others are trying, but I'm skeptical about their long term viability even with increased EVs on the road. Partnering with retail locations is helpful if they can sell the idea that EV drivers will be captive audiences for 30 minutes. I'm hopeful they figure it out, because it's certainly not as simple as gas stations (which also, by the way, aren't a very simple business model).

This is one cause of industry based EV resistance. EVs don't need a ton of service (as mentioned above), and fueling is very distributed and variable. There's not a guaranteed stream of income to be made after the sale, other than return business. This is why Tesla intends to keep their margins around 25%, even with the new more affordable Model 3. Service is set up so it's not a profit center, and charging is often included with the vehicle. To get more money out of an existing customer requires innovating to the point that they want to upgrade, and providing a level of service that keeps the customer loyal to the brand. This is, again, a difficult economic model.

What I do know is that there's a large market at this point for EV buyers, and as the industry matures, we'll all watch good entrepreneurs find niches for profit. Solar will continue to grow, because once you have an EV, your ROI on solar drops tremendously. Mine was 6 years. EVs are a really compelling motivator for solar installation, philosophically and economically.
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Old 07-12-2017, 08:40 AM   #88
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FWIW, I was able to charge in many locations that had no cell service. Remember that 300kW charging isn't a necessity, it's a luxury. Places without cell service often don't have fossil fueling stations, either. There are vastly more "charging stations" than there are gas stations when you consider that any electrical outlet is a potential charger. Check out plugshare.com for maps showing a slice of the chargers available to the public.

However, I do agree that economics is going to be the driver if the goal is sustainability. EV charging is a tough business model because most people get most miles from their home charging solution. Chargepoint, EVgo, and others are trying, but I'm skeptical about their long term viability even with increased EVs on the road. Partnering with retail locations is helpful if they can sell the idea that EV drivers will be captive audiences for 30 minutes. I'm hopeful they figure it out, because it's certainly not as simple as gas stations (which also, by the way, aren't a very simple business model).

This is one cause of industry based EV resistance. EVs don't need a ton of service (as mentioned above), and fueling is very distributed and variable. There's not a guaranteed stream of income to be made after the sale, other than return business. This is why Tesla intends to keep their margins around 25%, even with the new more affordable Model 3. Service is set up so it's not a profit center, and charging is often included with the vehicle. To get more money out of an existing customer requires innovating to the point that they want to upgrade, and providing a level of service that keeps the customer loyal to the brand. This is, again, a difficult economic model.

What I do know is that there's a large market at this point for EV buyers, and as the industry matures, we'll all watch good entrepreneurs find niches for profit. Solar will continue to grow, because once you have an EV, your ROI on solar drops tremendously. Mine was 6 years. EVs are a really compelling motivator for solar installation, philosophically and economically.
Hi

Towing a 10,000 lb trailer through the mountains uses way more energy than running a typical sedan. Doing that with a 300 mile range means a pretty heavy tow vehicle with any technology. That ups the energy consumed still further. A charge station to get that rig charged in 15 minutes is one heavy duty setup. The same charging dilemma is true for any truck pulling the same sort of load with the same sort of range. The guy with the horse trailer or the hay bales has the same problem.

A fast charge setup for a sedan will drop into many businesses and some homes without a lot of fuss. The sort thing you need to fast charge a big tow ... not so much. Toss in energy storage for the fast charge and the price goes through the roof. It's not an easy problem to solve.

More money per station and fewer customers is not a good combo when you run the numbers. Head up to Alaska from the lower 48 today and you may have fun finding carbon based fuel along the route. Economics at work again. There are customers, but not enough of them.

Most of us at least *consider* heading off into the wilds with our rigs. We may not do it every day, but we want to keep that option open. The fear of getting stuck in the back woods with a pure electric tow is going to be a pretty big issue in getting them accepted in any meaningful way.

There is no obvious / quick solution to this chicken and egg sort of problem other than some sort of subsidized setup. Even there, the money has to come from somebody. Getting it spread out into the boonies is going to be difficult.

Bob
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Old 07-12-2017, 08:46 AM   #89
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Well, as someone who spends most of his time in the 'wild' (if there's really much of that left in the US), I have come to trust solar. I have, in fact, revived a dead battery in the backcountry usin solar. If I'd run outta gas, the sun wouldn't have refilled my tank.

I believe eventually ya really won't have to worry too much about chargin stations cause the sun will power ya up even through clouds. I got 60 amp hours of juice off one, 15 lb. panel under thick clouds yesterday here in the forest.

That's only gonna get better as things progress.
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Old 07-12-2017, 09:25 AM   #90
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. . .
That's only gonna get better as things progress.
Exactly! That's what all the naysayers miss IMO. We are just learning to crawl when it comes to solar.

Graph petrochemical reserves vs. solar gain over the next 1,000 years.

Inescapable conclusion . . .

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Old 07-12-2017, 09:43 AM   #91
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I keep comparin it to early cell phone technology. First it was 'mobile phones can't be relied on' then it was 'if ya want a mobile phone that will actually work, you must spend a fortune'. Then it was 'if your mobile phone is 1 year old it is useless, ya need to upgrade.'

Mobile internet? 'Too slow to ever be useful!' 'Never gonna work for folks that need reliability!'

And, yet, here I am postin hi res pics from deep in Gunnison Forest on a 3 year old mobile phone.

Ya just gotta wait for the technology to level off.
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Old 07-12-2017, 09:54 AM   #92
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That's only gonna get better as things progress.
No it's not. We are talking about 90-100 kWh batteries in current electric sedans. 60 amp hours of juice at 12V is only 0.72 kWh. Not even 1% charge. Ohmman said absolute best case it takes 575 Watts to go one mile towing his 22' sport with his tesla X. So a day of charging with your 15lb panel might get you one mile of travel, if its flat. You would need well over 150 times your current solar capacity to fully charge an electric tow vehicle in a day. Portable solar to charge a vehicle isn't going to ever be a practical option. Even a carrying around a portable generator isn't really a practical option for charging. The scale of the electric power needed for a tow vehicle isn't something we are used to thinking about with our trailers. This isn't something that will improve much going forward either. We may develop lighter, higher capacity batteries, and faster ways to charge them, but the amount of energy it takes to move 10,000lbs a mile down the road isn't going to change.
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Old 07-12-2017, 09:58 AM   #93
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Sorry azeeb but I just don't believe you.
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Old 07-12-2017, 10:17 AM   #94
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This has been an interesting read. It appears that, to most people, "future" means during their lifetime. Whatever the rationale, the ICE will be replaced by another technology eventually. It's fuel is a non-renewable resource that will become too expensive to burn. Modern extractive methods, i.e., FRACKING, may extend the reserves, but not create new ones. I consider ANY carbon-based fuel as a temporary solution to the need to transport people and/or materials. Living in the past only delays the inevitable and leaves our children fewer alternatives, as we consume resources. Electric motors powered by fossil fuel and/or fission-based nuclear plants are only an interim, short-range solution. Let's get on with it!
Agreed, this is not a zero sum game. Human beings are inquisitive and creative. Our technological progress is a wonderful proof of that. The replacement technology and energy source for the ICE is not on the current horizon. We are in the tinkering stage.
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Old 07-12-2017, 10:19 AM   #95
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Sorry azeeb but I just don't believe you.

azeeb has a lot correct. There are a few mistakes with the consumption numbers - 575Wh/mi was highway speed (~60 mph) in windless conditions. Consumption at best can be as low as 375Wh/mi but that's on slower roads going 35-40 mph.

Battery density must improve before the wider edge cases become reality. It is most certainly not fully mainstream at this point, and it is yet to be seen how much the added demand will foster battery innovation. History tells us that we should expect at least some level of improvement but we just can't be sure how much.

The amount of energy needed to move an automobile is tremendous, which is why portable solar solutions aren't currently very useful. Solar roofs on EVs are feel good optics, nothing more. Not enough sunlight hits the car to make a real dent in the energy needed. This is why we've relied on high density carbon based fossil fuels to date.

I do believe that's changing, and while it will take some time to get people comfortable in those very remote locations, it's not out of reach. Why does Rice play Texas, indeed.
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Old 07-12-2017, 10:23 AM   #96
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See the reason I don't care about the numbers and smart stuff is because I've heard it all too many times. Very smart, detailed arguments... full of numbers and research. Sometimes hours and hours of why somethin is impossible.

Then some kid comes around and stumbles on somethin nobody thought of and changes everything. I have seen it... I dunno.... a hundred times? A thousand?

So, I absolutely respect y'all's intelligence but the truth is that someone smarter or luckier than you is gonna make it happen. Kinda sounds like they already are.
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Old 07-12-2017, 10:24 AM   #97
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Think about it this way. The average US household consumes 30 kWh of electricity a day.

One full charge of a current electric vehicle requires 3 times that amount (~90 kWh)

Currently electric vehicle can tow about 100-150 miles on a single charge. As technology advances (which it rapidly is) batteries will be able to hold higher capacities, and the range a vehicle can tow will increase. However, this means the energy needed to charge the batteries will also rapidly increase. A vehicle with a range of 200-300 miles towing will need batteries capable of holding close to 200 kWh.

The next generation of super charging stations tesla is working on mentioned earlier in this thread are expected to be 300 kW. Imagine what 300,000 Watts of portable solar panels would look like. 300 kW is equivalent of 150 honda 2000W generators all running at once and plugged into your car.

Battery capacity is going to get bigger, and our ability to quickly charge those batteries is going to get better. The physics of how much energy is required to power a vehicle down the road is not going to change.

I like both electric vehicles and small scale solar for their practical applications. The math just does not work for using portable solar panels to charge your electric vehicle on the road.
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Old 07-13-2017, 01:00 AM   #98
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Future power...one word: fusion.
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Old 07-13-2017, 02:59 AM   #99
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Fusion?

If the captains of industry from Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima have their hands freed to play around with fusion, what is probably going to happen?

In the fusion deck of cards, there is one wild card, and it is called Annihilation.

Fusion?

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Old 07-13-2017, 05:23 AM   #100
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Completely agree with azeeb about the density problem. Fossil fuels are high density and that is why we use them. Likewise about solar for boondocking, and while lots of folks claim wondrous numbers about their little trailer solar providing all their needs... Which totally ignores the need for AC in the future as the planet heats up. Just visit the B forums to get a dose of reality from the Roadtrek owners who bought into the eco-thingy lithium solutions that they have come up with.

But as long as we are fantasizing about the future, consider that Elon Musk will have us all travelling via hyperloops soon, and think about it, an Airstream is already the ideal shape to move through these tubes. A web of tubes will get you within 50 miles of your desired destination, and I would imagine an EV TV will be fully charged by the time you need to get you there, all thanks to Elon!

Oh yea, and we will colonize Mars with hundreds of people at a shot. Dream on.
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