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Old 01-28-2018, 11:22 AM   #381
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Originally Posted by lsbrodsky View Post
Not me, they will have to pry internal combustion engines out of my cold, dead hands.
Besides, in my lifetime, there will never be an electric vehicle that can tow 8000# 400 miles in all-terrain at 60 mph and refuel in 15 minutes.
Finally, I do not think anyone has really publically addressed the issue of battery disposal when everyone is driving an electric car and keeps the car beyond the battery life.

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Old 01-28-2018, 12:28 PM   #382
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It doesn't matter what size service is inside each house. The grid doesn't have the capacity to supply a maximum amount of power to every house in a neighborhood at the same time.
You are correct that service size in the house doesn't mean everyone can maximize it, but they have to size the grid appropriately for the panels that are served. I don't know the NEC requirement, but I'm guessing it's similar to the way you size a panel in the house based on service.

My point is that permitting larger panels in the houses does have some correlation with grid capacity. But we are in agreement that the grid will need to have incremental upgrades as adoption continues.

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The average home in the U.S. uses about 900 kWh per month.

Let's assume an average family has two electric vehicles that get driven 12k miles annually each. Electric sedans are getting around 0.35 kWh per mile. Charging 2 vehicles that drive 1000 miles per month each will require another 700 kWh per month.

That is close to doubling the current average usage of 900 kWh per month per household. 900 kWh goes to 1600 kWh per month. It's going to take some pretty extreme upgrades to the power grid if every household is going to double their electricity consumption. Many areas of the country already struggle handling the load in hot weather when everyone is running the A/C.
I believe you're conflating power and energy here. I could triple my monthly energy consumption without impacting the grid if I do it at off-peak times. The issue is with the power delivery during spikes in usage. So it doesn't matter much what my monthly energy usage is, it matters more when I am using that power, how much I'm using, and who else is using power at that time. This is why the grid struggles in some places with high AC demand. All the units are kicking on at the same time in response to weather conditions.

If everyone chooses to charge at night, this will indeed be a strong power demand. But that's a solvable problem. Here in California, many workplaces have chargers so people charge during the day when they're at the office. Some, like me, have solar and battery storage. EVs have the potential to flatten the duck curve created by solar overproduction. Rates will invert at some point to make this economically advantageous for customers.

One nice thing about the additional energy usage created by an EV is that it drops the rooftop solar ROI significantly. Here in California where rates are sky-high already, ROI can be in the 4-5 year timeframe.
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Old 01-28-2018, 12:57 PM   #383
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It doesn't matter what size service is inside each house. The grid doesn't have the capacity to supply a maximum amount of power to every house in a neighborhood at the same time.

The average home in the U.S. uses about 900 kWh per month.

Let's assume an average family has two electric vehicles that get driven 12k miles annually each. Electric sedans are getting around 0.35 kWh per mile. Charging 2 vehicles that drive 1000 miles per month each will require another 700 kWh per month.

That is close to doubling the current average usage of 900 kWh per month per household. 900 kWh goes to 1600 kWh per month. It's going to take some pretty extreme upgrades to the power grid if every household is going to double their electricity consumption. Many areas of the country already struggle handling the load in hot weather when everyone is running the A/C.
The upgrades will yield a 100% increase in electricity sales to customers driving EVs. Let the market decide. When that happens Iíll buy more utility stocks.
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Old 01-29-2018, 07:16 AM   #384
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I believe you're conflating power and energy here. I could triple my monthly energy consumption without impacting the grid if I do it at off-peak times. The issue is with the power delivery during spikes in usage. So it doesn't matter much what my monthly energy usage is, it matters more when I am using that power, how much I'm using, and who else is using power at that time. This is why the grid struggles in some places with high AC demand. All the units are kicking on at the same time in response to weather conditions.
The research does not agree with you. The power delivery spike is much larger for electric vehicle households, even when charging at off hours. Approximately double that of a typical household with no electric vehicle. Yes, the spike comes at a different time of day. Yes, it works well now because there are so few electric vehicles. No, it is not sustainable if everyone was charging an electric vehicle at the same time.



See also this article:

https://blogs.oracle.com/utilities/t...hile-you-sleep
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Old 01-29-2018, 07:47 AM   #385
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The research does not agree with you. The power delivery spike is much larger for electric vehicle households, even when charging at off hours. Approximately double that of a typical household with no electric vehicle. Yes, the spike comes at a different time of day. Yes, it works well now because there are so few electric vehicles. No, it is not sustainable if everyone was charging an electric vehicle at the same time.







See also this article:



https://blogs.oracle.com/utilities/t...hile-you-sleep


Thanks for the blog piece. It appears to reiterate what I said in my post. The economic incentives are set to encourage after midnight charging. Those are likely to change (tier inversion) as adoption grows.
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Old 01-29-2018, 08:26 AM   #386
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I certainly support EV development as they have been trying to get it off the ground for more than 100 years. However, I would like to maintain the freedom of choice. I remember when diesel fuel was much cheaper than gas, but when diesel pickups became more popular, diesel fuel prices went up higher than gas. I still a choice of which to drive and which fuel pump to use. I think as EV use increases, electric prices will rise(for everyone). So, the retired couple or working family that heats/cools with electricity will pay even more for their daily living. This as the electrical companys are forced to upgrade grids. Localities and busiess sites will have to set up charging stations, etc. Insofar as a mileage "fee" at vehicle registration, lol... A lot of the taxes earmarked for road care in New York seems to end up in a general.fund, and the roads see little of it. So if a plan like that goes in effect, people may start limiting their travel. How many businesses will be affected by that? Future generations would start looking at our great land on a computer screen, it would be cheaper and easier than going through the hassle/expense of visiting it in person... what shame that would be... : (
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Old 01-30-2018, 11:01 AM   #387
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I doubt all that will happen.
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Old 01-30-2018, 11:19 AM   #388
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I doubt all that will happen.
All what, Countryboy59? Please use the Quote button so we know what you're referring to.
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Old 01-30-2018, 11:36 AM   #389
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All what, Countryboy59? Please use the Quote button so we know what you're referring to.
All the gloom and doom in the post above mine. Retirees going broke because electricity goes through the roof (most retirees I know have way more money than me). The grid collapsing and wires falling everywhere (already happening because it needs updating). Etc.
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Old 01-30-2018, 12:41 PM   #390
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Change is hard!

Like it or not, internal-combustion engines are on the way out, whether we like it or not. Old dudes, like most of us here, may be able to ride it out, but it is just kicking the can down the road to our progeny. Maybe electric vehicles are not the wave of the distant future, but this "glut" of fossil fuels will be short-lived and electric vehicles, even if "fueled"by coal-fired plants, can help in the short run. What is it about the word "non-renewable" that people don't understand? Our infrastructure is in need of updating/replacing anyway, so why not bite the bullet and start preparing for the inevitable now, rather than waiting until fossil fuels, particularly oil and gas, are fiendishly expensive and overall costs have increased dramatically. The prevailing attitude seems to be, "Let our children pay for it; after all, what has posterity ever done for me?" I'm just sayin" .....
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Old 01-30-2018, 02:20 PM   #391
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What is it about the word "non-renewable" that people don't understand?
With the new oil fields being discovered on the African continent and other more remote areas around the earth and new technologies being developed to extract oil (fracking, etc), I think the world's oil supply will soon be measured in centuries rather than decades as previously thought...
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Old 01-30-2018, 07:10 PM   #392
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With the new oil fields being discovered on the African continent and other more remote areas around the earth and new technologies being developed to extract oil (fracking, etc), I think the world's oil supply will soon be measured in centuries rather than decades as previously thought...
That doesn't change the fact that it's non-renewable, it's just putting the problem off for our children to solve. It also doesn't solve the problem of putting more CO2 and other pollutants into the atmosphere. Even if there are centuries worth of fossil fuels remaining the supply is still finite and there's no way to predict what we might need them for in the future.
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Old 01-30-2018, 08:49 PM   #393
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Even if there are centuries worth of fossil fuels remaining the supply is still finite and there's no way to predict what we might need them for in the future.
???
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Old 01-30-2018, 09:21 PM   #394
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Ancient History TAXATION

Several years ago 2008 maybe there was a fuss about running diesels on used vegetable oil. I actually met a man who had his diesel converted. Ran regular petro diesel until the engine got warm then he manually switched to a 50 gallon tank of filtered oil... switched back to petro a few minutes before turning the engine off too. Smelled like taco bell most of the time. The website may still be around www.greasecar.com

At the end of every year he had to report his total mileage and pay Virginia and Federal Gas taxes after subtracting what he had already paid for conventional diesel.
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Old 01-31-2018, 01:51 AM   #395
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Ancient History TAXATION

Several years ago 2008 maybe there was a fuss about running diesels on used vegetable oil. I actually met a man who had his diesel converted. Ran regular petro diesel until the engine got warm then he manually switched to a 50 gallon tank of filtered oil... switched back to petro a few minutes before turning the engine off too. Smelled like taco bell most of the time. The website may still be around www.greasecar.com

At the end of every year he had to report his total mileage and pay Virginia and Federal Gas taxes after subtracting what he had already paid for conventional diesel.
Meanwhile thousands of others ran Greasel conversions and didnít run their mouths, and paid nothing.
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Old 01-31-2018, 08:06 AM   #396
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The funny thing is, it's not the gas or diesel savings that appeal to me buying an electric car; it's the simplicity of it. The lack of moving parts in comparison to ICE vehicles. Let's face it, vehicles have become over complex, over weight, and bloody expensive to fix.

It surprised the heck out of me, when I found out that a 4 cylinder, FWD, 2dr, little hot hatch, (Honda Civic type R), weighs more than my solid rear axle, V6, 4X4, 4dr Chevy Tracker.🤤
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Old 01-31-2018, 07:41 PM   #397
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With the new oil fields being discovered on the African continent and other more remote areas around the earth and new technologies being developed to extract oil (fracking, etc), I think the world's oil supply will soon be measured in centuries rather than decades as previously thought...
I wouldn't count on oil from other parts of the world. There are almost four times as many people in Africa than in the USA, and they might want to keep that oil for themselves. There have been enough wars over oil already. If we (North America) put off the move away from fossil fuels then we will trail the rest of the world in developing the technology.

The novel American War is an interesting look at one possible outcome.
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Old 02-28-2018, 04:51 PM   #398
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The Advanced Clean Transportation Expo is coming up at the end of April. Not specifically about tow vehicles, but a good exhibition of a wide range of alternate fuel vehicles from electric pickups to heavy trucks.

Given the interest expressed in this thread on alternate fuel options, I thought some may like to see what will be displayed. I see Daimler bringing CNG products to Class 8 (with racks behind the cab for multiple CNG tanks, to get sufficient range); there is an all electric SUV; there is a hybrid electric Freightliner, hybrid pickups from Workforce and Ford (F150 and F250), Cummins Westport NG engines including the 6.7, and so on. Bit of a glimpse into the near future (and in the case of the Thor and the Airflow Starship, perhaps the mid term future)

https://www.actexpo.com/vehicles
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Old 02-28-2018, 05:33 PM   #399
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Two weeks ago , and after waiting 1 1/2 years, my wife and I received our 2018 Model 3 Tesla. It is a wonderful car. This is never going to be a TV for us, but we bought it after driving my son's Model S.

The remarkable thing about it, is that it is the most powerful car I've ever driven, and I've owned some muscle cars in my early years. It is truly remarkable off the line with continuous power.

Let move ahead about a year or two. Elon Musk has announced he will be making a pickup truck. In two years I believe the range of the truck will be 500-600 miles. It will have more torque than any current pickup and Elon bragged it will carry a current pickup. An electric TV will be at home in a campsite with 30 or 50 amp station nearby, and would practically eliminate the largest cost in traveling, the fuel. My model three, using the tesla superchargers, can travel from New York to Los angeles for about $105 in electricity. It currently charges at night in my garage at about 30 miles per hour of charge.

I just bought an F-250 diesel (2017) for my new TV. The complexity of that engine is way beyond my knowledge. The fluids, filters, air cleaning DEF, radiators, transmission are all very complex and very expensive to buy and maintain. Imagine an electric TV with one electric motor, no transmission, no gears, no fluids (well one gear housing with oil) no radiators, more storage, more torque, more speed, and no diesel smell or noise.

It's all coming soon to a Tesla dealer near you.
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Old 02-28-2018, 07:24 PM   #400
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You might be interested in this thread, turk123, if you are not already:

http://www.airforums.com/forums/f463...-x-160951.html

We test drove a Model X last year and were favorably impressed.

Cheers,

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