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Old 07-26-2017, 05:05 PM   #221
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Photobucket never charged to store one's content and make it available to other web sites, either.

Until now.

Apple and music. PayPal and money. Netflix. Angie's List. Any service that starts cheap or free but ends up with a monthly service fee.

The successful web culture business model, there are thousands.

Got to get the first folks hooked to get more.

Elon has billions and nothing else to do.


Want to hit that line?


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Old 07-26-2017, 05:18 PM   #222
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Photobucket never charged to store one's content and make it available to other web sites, either.

Until now.

Apple and music. PayPal and money. Netflix. Audio books.


Got to get the first folks hooked to get more.

Elon has billions and nothing else to do.


Want to hit that line?
This is a bizarre argument. Tesla has already announced a pay to Supercharge model for future vehicles. Clearly it was an early adopter benefit. But it's not the reason you buy the car, it just was there to offset some of the initial inconvenience of charging.

Do you have to pay for gas? How is it different? Electricity is cheaper per mile.

Unless I'm mistaken, Netflix always charged for movies. Apple iTunes always charged for music. How are those things related?

Elon has nothing to do, eh? I suggest Ashlee Vance's biography of him. He's the CEO of three companies. By all accounts, he's quite busy.
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Old 07-26-2017, 05:26 PM   #223
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We shall see.




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Old 07-26-2017, 05:27 PM   #224
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When to go electric for a tow vehicle

I've got 4 relatively new vehicles in my driveway - one is electric and another is a a diesel 3/4 ton for towing the AS. The others are gas.



The goto vehicle is always the electric one! Such a great car... now that we have one we will never be without electric in our family. The diesel truck is for towing the 30' AS and it does a great job for what it is used for.



Can't wait for the day we see Diesel / electric hybrid drivetrains in HD trucks or full electric HD trucks. With a Curb weight of just under 8,000lbs and with energy density growing every year for Lithium energy storage, you will eventually be able to store a LOT of electrical energy in a 3/4 ton truck framework. Will probably handle better too with lower center of gravity.



Anyhoo, we're not there yet, but I applaud legislators who are leading the way setting goals for EV adoption, whether they are realistic or not. I agree that its a matter of when, not if.



Happy Wednesday
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Old 07-26-2017, 06:02 PM   #225
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You miss my point.

I'm not saying it isn't money one is not already spending.

But, now one is are giving it to Tesla, or whomever built the car or sells charging spaces.

Of course businesses will give a few parking places up. It cost them nothing and they stand to gain the business of a few big spenders, the only folks buying EVs.

EVs are only cheaper from very narrow points of view:

No value of time, distance traveled between long stops, load carried, etc.

Buy the car, and one is hooked to the services supplied by the vendor.

Why do you think Tesla has no dealers...any profit to Elon, no one else.




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Old 07-26-2017, 06:11 PM   #226
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Agreed. But that is the date for the last one sold, and automakers are not likely to continue investing as much in new vehicle development costs if there is an approaching sunset date. That will slow the delopement of ICE vehicles, and accelerate the development of alternatives.

Add to that the road restrictions mentioned as coming soon in the same article.

This doesn't imply that ICEs are done with today. But it clearly signals that the day is coming.
Very prophetic statement. If you were a major automobile manufacturer and you have countries in the process of banning ICE vehicles in 23 years; what are you going to do? At what point does it become financially crazy to continue to produce ICE vehicles with their inherent huge parts supply.

It takes on average 3-5 years to bring a new vehicle to market with a platform life of at least 5 years, max 10 years (the Jaguar XJS stayed the same from 1976-1990), so in other words we could have at least two more generations of the F-150 (if the US followed suite with the ICE ban) OR just one more itineration if Ford say decides to just let the final platform run its course.

All it's going to take is someone like Workhorse to get their ducks in a row and market a 460 hp 0-60 in 5 seconds 1/2 or 3/4 ton with a 500 mile range and I think the big boys will be following suite pretty quickly.

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Old 07-26-2017, 06:51 PM   #227
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Let's see...2040 is 23 years from now...almost 1/4 of a century...hmmmm
It just seems like yesterday we turned a new century, 2000, 17 years ago.

If they had made this same announcement in the year 2000; you were the owner of Ford, GM or VW and you only had six years left before having to comply with the ban, what would your business decisions be right now? Would you be designing new ICE cars?

Time has a nasty way of creeping up on you and biting you in the caboose when you least expect it.

Cheers
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Old 07-26-2017, 06:56 PM   #228
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. . .
Time has a nasty way of creeping up on you and biting you in the caboose when you least expect it.
. . .
Amen to that!

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Old 07-26-2017, 07:00 PM   #229
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You miss my point.
I did, and appreciate your clarification. My apologies.
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But, now one is are giving it to Tesla, or whomever built the car or sells charging spaces.
Not wanting to get you wrong again, this reads as if you don't appreciate businesses developing ecosystems or competing with establishment. Maybe I'm reading it wrong, though. Remember, too, that most of my energy comes not from Tesla, but from my roof.
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EVs are only cheaper from very narrow points of view:

No value of time, distance traveled between long stops, load carried, etc.
Pertinent to the forum and thread (towing related), I agree there are tradeoffs on time. However, I dispute the time argument otherwise. How often do you fuel up? How long does it take? I never do that in my daily driving. In that case, the argument is inverted. Today, with towing, I definitely have a much slower pace than others due to charging stops. EVs are not nearly as convenient at this time for that task.
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Buy the car, and one is hooked to the services supplied by the vendor.
Again, I can charge at home, with ChargePoint, EVgo, RV 50 amp outlets, etc. so I'm not locked to Tesla at all.
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Why do you think Tesla has no dealers...any profit to Elon, no one else.
Well, Tesla is public. Elon is the biggest shareholder but "no on else" ignores the vast number of stock holders. For what it's worth, I'm not one of them. Never could figure out valuation on that stock.
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Old 07-26-2017, 07:22 PM   #230
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Tesla needed to kick of with a 100 K machine to be able to produce somewhat of a usable EV. However until he comes up with the Model T equivalent of an EV Tesla wont survive either.
Then I'm sure you'll be rapt this Friday when the first handful of Model 3s are due to be delivered. This is a vehicle whose base price is very close to the average price of a US vehicle. Prior to tax credit, by the way - before you burst that blood vessel.
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Old 07-26-2017, 07:32 PM   #231
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I did, and appreciate your clarification. My apologies.

Not wanting to get you wrong again, this reads as if you don't appreciate businesses developing ecosystems or competing with establishment. Maybe I'm reading it wrong, though. Remember, too, that most of my energy comes not from Tesla, but from my roof.

Pertinent to the forum and thread (towing related), I agree there are tradeoffs on time. However, I dispute the time argument otherwise. How often do you fuel up? How long does it take? I never do that in my daily driving. In that case, the argument is inverted. Today, with towing, I definitely have a much slower pace than others due to charging stops. EVs are not nearly as convenient at this time for that task.

Again, I can charge at home, with ChargePoint, EVgo, RV 50 amp outlets, etc. so I'm not locked to Tesla at all.


Well, Tesla is public. Elon is the biggest shareholder but "no on else" ignores the vast number of stock holders. For what it's worth, I'm not one of them. Never could figure out valuation on that stock.

You must drive your EV only at night, otherwise you are justifying is efficiency with some grid supply trade-out scenario.

The alternative charging points at this point are all start-up ventures. Free drugs at this point.

You drive one, rave about it's up sides, but don't invest. Telling at some point.



I understand fossils won't last forever, but they ain't dead yet and true alternatives are decades, not years, away.

EVs for short, local deliveries and most typical work commutes are somewhat workable now, but OTR, long range travel, and towing applications are still a long time out.


Folks involved in making a living don't have time to sit in a lounge drinking Starbucks and eating avacado toast. It takes me 10 minutes to fuel, use the water closet, and get a Coke. Not 90.

Europe is no comparison for the US. They drive no distance at all compared to the average required here. A pepped-up golf cart would suit most of the need there.



It's a niche for now, like it or not.



Regards,


JD
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Old 07-26-2017, 08:04 PM   #232
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You must drive your EV only at night, otherwise you are justifying is efficiency with some grid supply trade-out scenario.
Please expand. I don't understand why it matters when I drive my cars vs. when I charge them.

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You drive one, rave about it's up sides, but don't invest. Telling at some point.
Not at all. I can love EVs all I want but market cap is market cap. People who invest on their interests are just as disjointed as people who spend money on the company that made them money in the market. Tesla has an enormous market cap and I have a hard time doing the numbers. Period.

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Folks involved in making a living don't have time to sit in a lounge drinking Starbucks and eating avacado toast. It takes me 10 minutes to fuel, use the water closet, and get a Coke. Not 90.
Nice job with the stereotyping. Would you be surprised to learn I spend much of my days with boots on, driving a tractor, weedeating, doing plumbing, electrical and other ranch work?

I spend 20 minutes per stop on road trips without the AS. Not 90. I spent 90 only once with the AS, mostly an hour or less.

Your 10 minutes once a week adds up, believe it or not. And I'd argue that we could find parity on charging and fueling quicker than you suggest.

I agree we are not extremely close to seeing EVs take over all uses. That's far too dreamy for me. However, you do a disservice to the readers by suggesting they're not road trip capable. That's flat out wrong.
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Old 07-26-2017, 08:31 PM   #233
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Please expand. I don't understand why it matters when I drive my cars vs. when I charge them.


Not at all. I can love EVs all I want but market cap is market cap. People who invest on their interests are just as disjointed as people who spend money on the company that made them money in the market. Tesla has an enormous market cap and I have a hard time doing the numbers. Period.



Nice job with the stereotyping. Would you be surprised to learn I spend much of my days with boots on, driving a tractor, weedeating, doing plumbing, electrical and other ranch work?




I spend 20 minutes per stop on road trips without the AS. Not 90. I spent 90 only once with the AS, mostly an hour or less.

Your 10 minutes once a week adds up, believe it or not. And I'd argue that we could find parity on charging and fueling quicker than you suggest.

I agree we are not extremely close to seeing EVs take over all uses. That's far too dreamy for me. However, you do a disservice to the readers by suggesting they're not road trip capable. That's flat out wrong.

It matters because you suggest your charging is free and zero emissions. It isn't unless you are totally off grid. You don't use the power your solar makes, you trade (read: reduced efficiency) your solar power for grid power generated by fossil or nukes when you charge at night.

Ok, you consider yourself a working man. So be it. All of those tasks are fossil fueled and have nothing to do with the conversation. I referred to your comments about Tesla owned charging lounges in urban areas, I didn't make it up.

My ten minutes yields at least 400 miles of travel between stops. Not true with 20 minute topping recharges.

My comments are no more misleading than yours. One can perhaps travel across the globe in an EV but not at the same rate or capacity as fossils for now or the foreseeable future.



We obviously have very differing opinions about this subject, and it seems headed down a personal path, so I will make no further posts.

I simply believe the EV market is still very experimental, currently funded by venture capitalist and speculative marketing.

In my reaserach, fossil fueled power is here for much longer than some seem to expect.




Regards,

JD
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Old 07-26-2017, 08:45 PM   #234
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It matters because you suggest your charging is free and zero emissions. It isn't unless you are totally off grid. You don't use the power your solar makes, you trade (read: reduced efficiency) your solar power for grid power generated by fossil or nukes when you charge at night.



Ok, you consider yourself a working man. So be it. All of those tasks are fossil fueled and have nothing to do with the conversation. I referred to your comments about Tesla owned charging lounges in urban areas, I didn't make it up.



My ten minutes yields at least 400 miles of travel between stops. Not true with 20 minute topping recharges.



My comments are no more misleading than yours. One can perhaps travel across the globe in an EV but not at the same rate or capacity as fossils for now or the foreseeable future.







We obviously have very differing opinions about this subject, and it seems headed down a personal path, so I will make no further posts.



I simply believe the EV market is still very experimental, currently funded by venture capitalist and speculative marketing.



In my reaserach, fossil fueled power is here for much longer than some seem to expect.









Regards,



JD
I'll agree to disagree, then. I'll give you the last word on all points but this: I want to say that if I suggested I'm zero emissions anywhere in this thread, I'd love to correct it. I'm quite aware that's not the case, and certainly don't want to propagate that notion. I'll be clear that I've got much lower and safer emissions than an equivalent ICE, but no more than that. Thanks for the discussion.
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Old 07-26-2017, 10:34 PM   #235
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Buy the car, and one is hooked to the services supplied by the vendor.

Why do you think Tesla has no dealers...any profit to Elon, no one else.
Because the dealership model for passenger vehicles is outdated. It is based on said vehicles requiring regular servicing, on fleet sales, and on a world with no e-commerce. Customers generally aren't happily with dealerships, which is why some call them stealerships. Dealers aren't happy with reduced margins. Manufacturers want to go direct but can't in many cases. Tesla can. No surprise that they are doing so.

Disruptive technologies lead to disruptive business models. I don't see Apple investing in record stores, or Netflix investing in cable TV providers.
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Old 07-27-2017, 06:34 AM   #236
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Because the dealership model for passenger vehicles is outdated. It is based on said vehicles requiring regular servicing, on fleet sales, and on a world with no e-commerce. Customers generally aren't happily with dealerships, which is why some call them stealerships. Dealers aren't happy with reduced margins. Manufacturers want to go direct but can't in many cases. Tesla can. No surprise that they are doing so.

Disruptive technologies lead to disruptive business models. I don't see Apple investing in record stores, or Netflix investing in cable TV providers.
I will respond here only to clerify my point:

Yes, dealerships do some of that, but they also create some competition on products produced by relatively few manufactures. They help those same manufacturers provide warranty coverage at controlled costs.
One is still free to service the car at any of thousands of providers that all exist in a free market.

Tesla seems to want to change that, or perhaps their current business model is the cheapest best way to sell experimental cars for now.

I likened this business model to Apple and other web-based economies this way:

The old way was buy a record player, buy records from any store, pay only for the needles and electricity to maintain and operate the turntable. Listen as often and as many times as you want for no more money.

Not too unlike vehicle ownership, right?

Apple and iTunes didn't just change the way we purchase music, they captured recurring revenue for the use of that music. One buys the device from them mostly at prices fixed by Apple, then pays monthly to listen to music they never own. Quit paying fees, lose your music.



That is my point. Tesla seems to be attempting that same new web model for vehicle ownership.

Buy your car from me, pay all the costs of ownership and operation to me, in exchange, I'll make it look very convenient. I understand one can charge for no fees to Tesla at home, assuming one wants to go home to re-fuel. Not a real way to travel across the country.

Before one realizes they are spending many times as much they would have on a few records. Add up all the .99 cent monthly iCloud expansion fees, the music fees, etc. One could buy several records and have them forever for less money.


Not sure where this model will lead, but seems to be be more money in the hands of fewer and fewer companies and in the end fewer choices for consumers.


And, I didn't suggest these companies are investing in the old business models,
I simply mentioned for those so convinced EVs are the near future, it seems investing in the companies that build them would be a lucrative choice.

Put your money where your mouth is, so to speak.

Regards,

JD
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Old 07-27-2017, 07:25 AM   #237
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It just seems like yesterday we turned a new century, 2000, 17 years ago.

If they had made this same announcement in the year 2000; you were the owner of Ford, GM or VW and you only had six years left before having to comply with the ban, what would your business decisions be right now? Would you be designing new ICE cars?

Time has a nasty way of creeping up on you and biting you in the caboose when you least expect it.

Cheers
Tony
Funny how the market finds ways around government mandates. It's like government price fixing of a service or product. It typically blows up in government's face. Shortages occur, overall system quality goes down, etc., until the mandate has to be withdrawn (typically by the next political administration that takes power as a result of the electorate's outrage at the administration that imposed the mandates). My point is individuals find inventive ways around collective government imposed mandates.
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Old 07-27-2017, 08:14 AM   #238
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To be clear to readers that don't want to get caught up in cynical fear, EVs can charge anywhere there's electricity. It's a commodity.

Music, movies, and other products of their like have protections to the artists associated with them and have always been licensed in one form or another. They are not commodities, though some artists may complain that the accessibility of computer created music has begun to commoditize their art - that's a different discussion altogether.
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Old 07-27-2017, 10:58 AM   #239
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The old way was buy a record player, buy records from any store, pay only for the needles and electricity to maintain and operate the turntable. Listen as often and as many times as you want for no more money.

Not too unlike vehicle ownership, right?

Apple and iTunes didn't just change the way we purchase music, they captured recurring revenue for the use of that music.
Sounds like a direct parallel to vehicle leasing. Recurring revenue for the manufacturer, no ownership, stop paying and lose the right to use it.

I have had an iPod in various forms since 2003. I have never bought music from Apple, not once in 14 years. I once bought a single album from a competitor to Apple, since I had a free coupon to try it out. Everything else comes the old way. Maybe we as consumers have more choice than you suggest.
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Old 07-27-2017, 11:56 AM   #240
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Hmmmm, that is actually 23 years . . .



Why is everyone quibbling about the timing of the death of the internal combustion engine, and our reliance on oil, coal, and petroleum by-products?

There may be legitimate questions about "when" -- but the question of "if" is a foregone conclusion, isn't it?

Sooner or later petroleum-based consumption will have to end.

Why get all worked up about "when?"



I did a little research and found that the AVERAGE solar power to impinge on the earths surface is 164 watts/sq meter. I wonder if anyone has looked at total energy consumption/ yr vs available solar energy? Can solar meet ALL of our needs? How about wind? The solar question is independent of technology. I'm not saying I have all the answers but just wondered if anyone has considered this?
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