Tesla Pickup Truck II

[OTRA15]

Interesting update today from Elon Musk on plans for the new pickup truck:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mu...wsviewer_click

Peter

PS -- The original thread for this, with about 500 posts, has been closed since 12/20/19:

http://www.airforums.com/forums/f463...ck-189602.html

[Prettygood]

The only thing people should doubt when Elon says something is ‘when’ it will happen. He has exceeded expectations on ‘what’ he has done at every turn.

[out of sight]

When will the Cybertruck become more economical to operate than an ICE pickup?

[panamerican]

Originally Posted by out of sight

When will the Cybertruck become more economical to operate than an ICE pickup?

The day of delivery....seriously.

[KayakGa]

I am pulling Tiny Shiny your way this summer (2nd time); And relocating to Forest Grove where my daughter lives; a tough housing market- already outbidded on one house.
Looking forward to my Oregon/West Coast adventure

[skyguyscott]

are TBD.

Folks, the truck has not even been delivered yet, and frankly, given Tesla's track record, I would not expect it anytime before 1Q 2023.

How far will it tow? What is it's max capacity? What about the cheaper version with two motors; how far will it tow? How about when you run the heater or air conditioning? What about uphill? How long is it going to take to refuel? Where are the refueling spots going to be located in three years?

Honestly, it's like a bunch of kids forever asking "are we there yet?"

We'll know when we know, k?

If you're young (under 40, the target demo for this vehicle) you have time to wait. If you're over 60, just stick with a nice ICE truck and don't worry yourself about it. This truck and the underlying technology are of the 21st century, not the 20th. In 1920, an ICE truck could not match the capacity or reliability or the infrastructure then in place for a team of horses. Few knew how to work on ICE vehicles, the parts were few and far-between, and they were dangerous. But horse stables, blacksmiths, and entire industry to support horses were still everywhere and everyone knew how to ride or dive a team. This is what this represents.

[Kalashnikov]

Originally Posted by Prettygood

The only thing people should doubt when Elon says something is ‘when’ it will happen. He has exceeded expectations on ‘what’ he has done at every turn.

*Ahem*.... Boring Company is a total failure

[Mik]

If it is a 200 kwh battery, should have reasonable cruising distance on a daily basis. Probably recharge after 3 hours of driving at 66.7 mph to add the next 200 miles while having a meal and bio break. Bet it will take about 35 to 40 minutes to recover to an 80% to 90% charge and then drive down to about 20% and do it again in 200 mile driving bursts. Then start fresh the next day after an overnight charge and a good night's sleep. The big issues are energy density and having enough power to go over mountains. That technology will likely improve and get cheaper too.

My F-150 gets 10 to 11 mpg when towing our Airstream, and the Tesla Truck may get the mpg equivalent of 30 to 40 in cost of electricity. That's a huge savings if you tow 10 to 15 thousand miles a year - not hard to do with a cross country round trip and a few more outings. And the truck cost is not that bad compared to the competition.

I plan to get one, and have a deposit down. May wait until the production run looks good though... Bought my model 3 June 2019 and it is excellent - gives me confidence to buy the truck. I want to have a power wall included in the rig!

The triangle pulling the oval will be strange though...

[Mik]

Originally Posted by skyguyscott

are TBD.

Folks, the truck has not even been delivered yet, and frankly, given Tesla's track record, I would not expect it anytime before 1Q 2023.

How far will it tow? What is it's max capacity? What about the cheaper version with two motors; how far will it tow? How about when you run the heater or air conditioning? What about uphill? How long is it going to take to refuel? Where are the refueling spots going to be located in three years?

Honestly, it's like a bunch of kids forever asking "are we there yet?"

We'll know when we know, k?

If you're young (under 40, the target demo for this vehicle) you have time to wait. If you're over 60, just stick with a nice ICE truck and don't worry yourself about it. This truck and the underlying technology are of the 21st century, not the 20th. In 1920, an ICE truck could not match the capacity or reliability or the infrastructure then in place for a team of horses. Few knew how to work on ICE vehicles, the parts were few and far-between, and they were dangerous. But horse stables, blacksmiths, and entire industry to support horses were still everywhere and everyone knew how to ride or dive a team. This is what this represents.

I own a Tesla model 3 and it is the best car for the dollar. If you want answers to your questions, I would be happy to give them, or you could look at the tesla website which does a fair job on your points.

[skyguyscott]

Yes, I am aware of what Tesla is projecting, but at this point, its all just specs -- as in speculation. I never buy anything based on the specs, whether it's computers, software, stocks or vehicles.

My point was that many folks want to know how the cybertruck will perform in the real world in terms of range, capacity and so on, but we won't really know until we see how the actual shipped truck performs in the Rockies, in the Death Valley heat, in the Minnesota winters, and so on. These things are uncertain at present.

The clever engineers at Tesla, like all clever engineers I have ever worked with are by nature systematic and thorough, and most thoroughly miss how actual end "idiots", er, users, actually use their product in the real world for tasks they never foresaw in conditions they never designed for, in circumstances they never imagined.

And so the answers these people seek will not be really known until the actual production version of the truck gets out into the real world and is put to use by real people doing real work -- which I don't expect will happen for another 3 years(!) That means three more years of hearing the same questions, the same specs repeated, the same Monday-morning engineering by smart people pointing out how not all roads are level, not all temperatures are the same, and giving physics lectures on force, mass and energy.

And no, I do not expect perfection. I expect the first generation cybertruck will excel in certain ways, and do a worse job in other ways than an ICE vehicle. Over the next decades, as the technology evolves and matures, the ICE vehicle will go the way of the horse. In 15 years or so, I expect the number of new ICE vehicles will fall into the minority of vehicles sold.

[Bobbo]

Originally Posted by Mik

Bet it will take about 35 to 40 minutes to recover to an 80% to 90% charge and then drive down to about 20% and do it again in 200 mile driving bursts. Then start fresh the next day after an overnight charge and a good night's sleep.

Really? Sit 35 to 40 minutes every 200 miles? I don't think so. Currently I can tow my Airstream 400 miles, easy, without stopping (assuming I am wearing an adult diaper).

[Prettygood]

Originally Posted by Kalashnikov

*Ahem*.... Boring Company is a total failure

Hardly. Tunnels aren’t sexy, and major infrastructure that is 100% dependent on local and state government don’t move quickly. That’s a very long range side project with no material impact on the solar, vehicle, and space programs that are the main focus.

[Prettygood]

Originally Posted by Bobbo

Really? Sit 35 to 40 minutes every 200 miles? I don't think so. Currently I can tow my Airstream 400 miles, easy, without stopping (assuming I am wearing an adult diaper).

A 35-40 minute break every 3+ hours sounds like a bad idea??

If I only ever plan to tow 6 hours in a day (360-400 miles), I can’t afford a single break? Not sure how you enjoy your vacations, but that scenario sounds perfectly reasonable to me.

[out of sight]

I don't think I'm ready for EV towing. Imagine having to stop 3 to 4 times a day for charging. Each time you have to find a place to park, then unhitch your trailer so you can drive up to the charge station, then wait 1 hour for the charge to complete, then drive back to your trailer, then hitch it up again.

[DewTheDew]

Many of you seem to miss that extreme towing customers over 55 years old are likely not the target market for the introduction of electric pickups. Just like you were also not the market when ICE vehicles came out a hundred years ago. The first trucks will work on viability and usefulness. Keep in mind that only a small percentage of pickup drivers tow heavy trailers long distances with regularity. Not sure why people feel the need to be so negative. If it doesn't suit your needs, do not buy one.

[mojo]

The electric car has been around since the 1800's and has taken this long to become a functional reality (excluding hybrids). I don't think the doubts are negative regarding an electric truck that can tow a decent payload for a reasonable distance, it's just a matter of if and when. Until it's a proven reliable alternative to an ICE truck, the doubts will continue.

[Bobbo]

Originally Posted by Prettygood

A 35-40 minute break every 3+ hours sounds like a bad idea??

If I only ever plan to tow 6 hours in a day (360-400 miles), I can’t afford a single break? Not sure how you enjoy your vacations, but that scenario sounds perfectly reasonable to me.

Yes. A 35-40 minute break every 3+ hours sounds like a very bad idea. Thanks for asking.

If you live in the east, and want to tour in the west, it can be over 1,500 miles just to get to where you want to start. Currently, I can do a 600 mile day. Having to stop for 35-40 minutes every 200 miles, that would not be possible.

It was expressed very well by out of sight:

Originally Posted by out of sight

I don't think I'm ready for EV towing. Imagine having to stop 3 to 4 times a day for charging. Each time you have to find a place to park, then unhitch your trailer so you can drive up to the charge station, then wait 1 hour for the charge to complete, then drive back to your trailer, then hitch it up again.

[kscherzi]

Todays electric vehicles are great for around town and reasonably local trips. On longer road trips it gets dicier. The Wall Street Journal just this weekend had a good write up on electric vehicles where several reports lived with various electric vehicles (including a Tesla model 3) for month or two.

The guys, probably mostly guys, buying the Tesla truck are probably typical urban warriors. They'll use it to go to commute to work and back, stop at the grocery store and maybe the gym. Maybe some will tow a boat on the weekend, but Tesla will have to work out what happens when the battery gets dipped in the lake at the launch ramp.

Towing for long distances an Airstream Classic 33 with this new truck is unlikely be on their minds or even practical without some serious compromise so its really not worth getting excited about today.

[turk123]

Consider this as battery technology changes. What if you could charge the battery on the truck in 10 minutes, or 5 minutes? Trailer chargers could resemble several long lines of lanes that drivers just keep pulling forward to a vacant charging spot.

Tesla's purchase of Maxwell recently and another battery manufacturer over time will change the way batteries are made and charged. Will it happen as soon as the Cybertruck? Probably, and the cost of batteries will go down and their lifespan will go up. Will we be pulling Airstreams across the country in three years without inconveniences of charging stations, probably not. The technology will eventually get there. I would love to see it happen now but until then, my f-250 diesel will get me where I want to go and my Tesla model 3 is resting in my garage until I get home in April.

[panamerican]

Originally Posted by kscherzi

Todays electric vehicles are great for around town and reasonably local trips. On longer road trips it gets dicier. The Wall Street Journal just this weekend had a good write up on electric vehicles where several reports lived with various electric vehicles (including a Tesla model 3) for month or two.

The guys, probably mostly guys, buying the Tesla truck are probably typical urban warriors. They'll use it to go to commute to work and back, stop at the grocery store and maybe the gym. Maybe some will tow a boat on the weekend, but Tesla will have to work out what happens when the battery gets dipped in the lake at the launch ramp.

Towing for long distances an Airstream Classic 33 with this new truck is unlikely be on their minds or even practical without some serious compromise so its really not worth getting excited about today.

I'm not sure I agree. The new Tesla Roadster is already claiming a 620 mile range. Of course, that's not towing, but the truck will have more real estate for batteries than the new Roadster. The current lineup of Tesla cars have gone up at least 50 or so miles in the past year in terms of range.

Additionally going cross country in Tesla (can't speak for other brands) is no more dicey than being in an ICE vehicle in the middle of nowhere, low on gas. The only difference is the Tesla has supercharge stations around the country, the car ITSELF, averages consumption, rate of speed and what charge to stop at. Of course if you drive it like you stole it, range decreases, similar to that of an ICE, however, if you drive normally to somewhat conservatively, there is no reason why you could not have 4-5 hours (maybe more-- today) in the car without having to stop more often for 30-45 mins with the size battery in a currently saleable Tesla vehicle. I have no doubt that in the next 3-10 years this will only get better each year that goes by.

Yea, I get that isn't convenient and for arguments sake let's also agree that it could take an extra day to cross country. If that day is really going to impact you, take a train or a plane. The real reason to do it, if you had to is to stick to "big oil". Depending on your charge package, the cost to go across the country could cost you next to zero, if not zero, and even if you didn't have charging included, my guess is that the total cost would be at LEAST half that of what you'd pay for gasoline and less than that of diesel (considering diesel gets better MPG than gassers).

Yes, there are gaps still not filled in the Tesla charge network, but that charge network is far more advanced and far more readily accessible for most long haul trips than any other manufacturer and like Apple, Tesla controls and oversees the car and the charge network, not left to 3rd party chargers with little to no consistency, but here too, if you have longer to wait, those chargers are also available for use.

To me, the real question is not that of charging, it is service. You simply can't take your Tesla, as it is today to just ANY mom and pop shop that you can with a current and seasoned auto manufacturers. There are Chevy, Ford and Dodge dealers nearly everywhere and where there isn't, the independent shops can usually fill that gap. This cannot be said for Tesla or any of the up and coming, so to me that is the real question.