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Old 11-10-2023, 08:12 PM   #1
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Ram 1500 Ramcharger

Could this be the solution for towing long distances with an EV truck? https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a4...harger-towing/
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Old 11-11-2023, 06:16 AM   #2
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The Ramcharger is the first series hybrid we have seen in a 1/2-ton pickup. Yes, it will eliminate towing range anxiety, but at what cost? A series hybrid is essentially an EV with an added ICE to charge its battery, so it's probably going to cost an additional 20k for the ICE, on top of an already prohibitively expense EV price. Not only that, towing fuel consumption will go down, owing to the inherent inefficiency of an electric drive train, compared to the mechanical drive capability found in parallel hybrid vehicles. The new Ram is an impressive vehicle with a lot of goodies, but it's hard to see that it will sell very well. Note that the Chevy Volt, another series hybrid, had to be taken out of production because it couldn't make a profit.
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Old 11-11-2023, 09:11 AM   #3
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The concept is interesting. The cost will be the key. Based upon the specs it looks like it has lots horsepower and range. For those that tow a great deal it may not have the payload necessary since it is a 1/2 ton. For me, I don't tow a great deal nor go long distances so the gas mileage may be more important without towing. However, as I am retired and no longer use my truck for work I don't drive that much. So the extra efficiency and no doubt extra cost will not pay for itself. There comes a point where one has to look at the total cost of owning a vehicle and not just what one has to pay at the pump at a particular point in time. Also there is the issue of reliability. I would rather buy a Toyota Hybrid pickup that has been on the market and has had some track record. But maybe for those who are younger and drive more without towing this could be an interesting concept. Time will tell. As we have seen the EV push has begun to subside as early adopters are beginning to decline and now the general public has to come on board. The main issues are range and charging stations/time.

It has been my contention all along that pure EVs have a limited market at this point (this could change in the future). And that Hybrid (PHEV) vehicles are a better solution for lowering emissions. So maybe this is that middle ground.
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Old 11-11-2023, 09:19 AM   #4
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The concept is interesting. The cost will be the key. Based upon the specs it looks like it has lots horsepower and range. For those that tow a great deal it may not have the payload necessary since it is a 1/2 ton. For me, I don't tow a great deal nor go long distances so the gas mileage may be more important without towing. However, as I am retired and no longer use my truck for work I don't drive that much. So the extra efficiency and no doubt extra cost will not pay for itself. There comes a point where one has to look at the total cost of owning a vehicle and not just what one has to pay at the pump at a particular point in time. Also there is the issue of reliability. I would rather buy a Toyota Hybrid pickup that has been on the market and has had some track record. But maybe for those who are younger and drive more without towing this could be an interesting concept. Time will tell. As we have seen the EV push has begun to subside as early adopters are beginning to decline and now the general public has to come on board. The main issues are range and charging stations/time.

It has been my contention all along that pure EVs have a limited market at this point (this could change in the future). And that Hybrid (PHEV) vehicles are a better solution for lowering emissions. So maybe this is that middle ground.
EV growth is still quite strong although it is down a bit from last year.

BEV’s still outsell hybrids by quite a bit. The hybrids will find a market but probably more in the truck market. Electric cars will continue to be primarily BEV’s as for most users the dual drivetrain has no advantage and just adds complication.

Jmho
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Old 11-11-2023, 10:08 AM   #5
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I have a BMW EV with a backup generator (35hp 2 cylinder scooter motor) and for the most part, I don't use the generator except maybe once a month. The generator is not part of the drive train, it just runs to charge the battery if I want to go on longer trips. This format is great but has been discontinued by BMW.

I think the new Ram will be the same sort of thing. I think this does give some options to the EV towing dilemma. If the Ram can go 700 miles on a tank, and you cut that in half while towing, that is still quite a range and you can find some gas somewhere along the way to go further.

Couple that with the E-stream trailer and maybe you can drive 700 miles before charging
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Old 11-11-2023, 11:15 AM   #6
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The concept is interesting. The cost will be the key. Based upon the specs it looks like it has lots horsepower and range. For those that tow a great deal it may not have the payload necessary since it is a 1/2 ton. For me, I don't tow a great deal nor go long distances so the gas mileage may be more important without towing. However, as I am retired and no longer use my truck for work I don't drive that much. So the extra efficiency and no doubt extra cost will not pay for itself. There comes a point where one has to look at the total cost of owning a vehicle and not just what one has to pay at the pump at a particular point in time. Also there is the issue of reliability. I would rather buy a Toyota Hybrid pickup that has been on the market and has had some track record. But maybe for those who are younger and drive more without towing this could be an interesting concept. Time will tell. As we have seen the EV push has begun to subside as early adopters are beginning to decline and now the general public has to come on board. The main issues are range and charging stations/time.

It has been my contention all along that pure EVs have a limited market at this point (this could change in the future). And that Hybrid (PHEV) vehicles are a better solution for lowering emissions. So maybe this is that middle ground.
There has been a lot of stories in the media about demand slowing for EVs. The problem is, it isn't true, except possibly in some very limited markets or over short periods of time.

Using US statistics, and Q3 2023 numbers which were recently released, we see that EV sales set a record, exceeding 300,000 for the first time in the US. YTD the US market is on track to exceed 1 million for the first time ever. EV sales are up 49.8% year over year. Some automakers saw increases over 200%. Source. And in some US states, EVs are reaching 20 - 25% of all vehicles sold. But this growth did not happen across all manufacturers. See the attached graph for the share of EV sales among brands. Some legacy brands aren't in the game. Those are the ones who are talking about not meeting forecasts. Not sales declines, they are selling more than last year, but they are not selling what they expected. Ford and GM are both in that category.

GM abandoned plans to build 400,000 EVs by mid 2024. But their CFO said on their earnings call that it isn't due to slowing demand. Ford slowed production as it shifted its plants around. They had lower sales during that period of time. But it was due to supply, not demand. And since they are losing money on every EV they sell, perhaps they weren't too bothered.

We have some very successful EVs in terms of sales. The Model Y was reported to have US sales up 91% year over year in July. Leaving aside pickups, it was the top selling US vehicle. Not the top selling EV, which it also was, but across all vehicles. So I don't think pure EVs have a limited market now. We see production capacity limits, and we see challenges specific to some brands. But not demand limits, or market limits.

The story to me is what the manufacturer landscape will look like over the coming years. The largest manufacturers are strongly positioned on the left of the graph below. Will they find a way to compete, or will they become less relevant going forward? Their biggest moneymakers have been trucks, and trucks haven't been a large part of EV sales. Yet. GM put out a press release yesterday. They reported sales of the Silverado EV during Q3. They sold 18 of them. Meanwhile, Rivian sold 8,200, and their YTD sales are up 100%. The Lightning sold 3500, with YTD sales up 40%. Tesla is finally launching their Cybertruck (production started now; public delivery launch announced for Nov 30), and has built annual production capacity in the hundreds of thousands, with the variable being the production ramp rate. And Tesla is selling their other vehicles profitably. They have four or five years of Cybertruck orders in hand, so evidently not a demand problem. What will this manufacturer landscape look like in a year?

If you look at the chart, RAM isn't on it. So they need something bold. They announce that they will produce a series hybrid pickup, designed to ease range anxiety. Their lead headline was to the effect that they had a new unlimited range EV. Skipping over the fact that the EV range is 145 miles. Ford and GM aren't profitable. Can RAM add in a gasoline engine/generator combination, over and above the cost of the base EV pickup, and sell it profitably? How will it compare to the RAM 1500 BEV they announced for 2024?

Interesting times.
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Old 11-11-2023, 02:44 PM   #7
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Cyber might be the perfect match. It isn't light - 7K lbs and tow ratings are
7500-14000lbs

Air suspension and payload 3500lbs

Reported to be in the medium duty,
G = Class G – Greater than 3,629 kg to 4,082 kg. (8,001-9,000 lbs.) and
H = Class H – Greater than 4,082 kg to 4,536 kg. (9,001-10,000 lbs

No jamb sticker on this one tho Pumped for it

New school meets old school. AS needs a redesign to match it up.
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Old 11-11-2023, 04:11 PM   #8
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There has been a lot of stories in the media about demand slowing for EVs. The problem is, it isn't true, except possibly in some very limited markets or over short periods of time.

Using US statistics, and Q3 2023 numbers which were recently released, we see that EV sales set a record, exceeding 300,000 for the first time in the US. YTD the US market is on track to exceed 1 million for the first time ever. EV sales are up 49.8% year over year. Some automakers saw increases over 200%. Source. And in some US states, EVs are reaching 20 - 25% of all vehicles sold. But this growth did not happen across all manufacturers. See the attached graph for the share of EV sales among brands. Some legacy brands aren't in the game. Those are the ones who are talking about not meeting forecasts. Not sales declines, they are selling more than last year, but they are not selling what they expected. Ford and GM are both in that category.

GM abandoned plans to build 400,000 EVs by mid 2024. But their CFO said on their earnings call that it isn't due to slowing demand. Ford slowed production as it shifted its plants around. They had lower sales during that period of time. But it was due to supply, not demand. And since they are losing money on every EV they sell, perhaps they weren't too bothered.

We have some very successful EVs in terms of sales. The Model Y was reported to have US sales up 91% year over year in July. Leaving aside pickups, it was the top selling US vehicle. Not the top selling EV, which it also was, but across all vehicles. So I don't think pure EVs have a limited market now. We see production capacity limits, and we see challenges specific to some brands. But not demand limits, or market limits.

The story to me is what the manufacturer landscape will look like over the coming years. The largest manufacturers are strongly positioned on the left of the graph below. Will they find a way to compete, or will they become less relevant going forward? Their biggest moneymakers have been trucks, and trucks haven't been a large part of EV sales. Yet. GM put out a press release yesterday. They reported sales of the Silverado EV during Q3. They sold 18 of them. Meanwhile, Rivian sold 8,200, and their YTD sales are up 100%. The Lightning sold 3500, with YTD sales up 40%. Tesla is finally launching their Cybertruck (production started now; public delivery launch announced for Nov 30), and has built annual production capacity in the hundreds of thousands, with the variable being the production ramp rate. And Tesla is selling their other vehicles profitably. They have four or five years of Cybertruck orders in hand, so evidently not a demand problem. What will this manufacturer landscape look like in a year?

If you look at the chart, RAM isn't on it. So they need something bold. They announce that they will produce a series hybrid pickup, designed to ease range anxiety. Their lead headline was to the effect that they had a new unlimited range EV. Skipping over the fact that the EV range is 145 miles. Ford and GM aren't profitable. Can RAM add in a gasoline engine/generator combination, over and above the cost of the base EV pickup, and sell it profitably? How will it compare to the RAM 1500 BEV they announced for 2024?

Interesting times.
I still say BEV is a niche product. I just do not see it getting mainstream acceptance. Take a city like Chicago. Where do average people live? In the neighborhoods in a three flat or apartment building. And where do they park? On the side street as close to where they live as possible. How are they supposed to charge these vehicles? Run mile long extension cords? And then of course Chicago has a quaint winter custom called "Dibs". Once it snows and you dig out your vehicle, it's yours for the winter. And woe to those who should dare to move the chair guarding the spot! My point is that a large portion of the population does not park in a nice warm garage with the capability of adding a BEV charger. Then add in the additional cost of a BEV and it is a non-starter for average Joe and Jane.
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Old 11-11-2023, 05:44 PM   #9
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I still say BEV is a niche product. I just do not see it getting mainstream acceptance. Take a city like Chicago. Where do average people live? In the neighborhoods in a three flat or apartment building. And where do they park? On the side street as close to where they live as possible. How are they supposed to charge these vehicles? Run mile long extension cords? And then of course Chicago has a quaint winter custom called "Dibs". Once it snows and you dig out your vehicle, it's yours for the winter. And woe to those who should dare to move the chair guarding the spot! My point is that a large portion of the population does not park in a nice warm garage with the capability of adding a BEV charger. Then add in the additional cost of a BEV and it is a non-starter for average Joe and Jane.
In June, figures showed that the Model Y BEV was outselling popular cars and SUVs like the Toyota Camry, Honda CR-V, Nissan Rogue, Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic, Honda Accord, and others that had dominated the sales charts in the past. That is a pretty large niche.

We owned a BEV for a year before we got charging installed at home. We used public chargers. The one at our local supermarket supplied 90% of our local charging (and it was free.....). For trips, we used Superchargers.

Purchase prices have now come down for many models. And when you look at the total cost of ownership, considering fueling/charging and maintenance, for many cars the BEV is more affordable for the average Joe.
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Old 11-11-2023, 09:03 PM   #10
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In June, figures showed that the Model Y BEV was outselling popular cars and SUVs like the Toyota Camry, Honda CR-V, Nissan Rogue, Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic, Honda Accord, and others that had dominated the sales charts in the past. That is a pretty large niche.

We owned a BEV for a year before we got charging installed at home. We used public chargers. The one at our local supermarket supplied 90% of our local charging (and it was free.....). For trips, we used Superchargers.

Purchase prices have now come down for many models. And when you look at the total cost of ownership, considering fueling/charging and maintenance, for many cars the BEV is more affordable for the average Joe.
But you did not address my main point. There are not that many chargers in Chicago. And many of them do not seem to be maintained (e.g. out of order, non-functioning). None of them charge at advertised speeds. If BEV did go mainstream, where are people who live in the neighbourhoods and park on the street going to charge them??? Have you ever lived in the city?
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Old 11-11-2023, 09:22 PM   #11
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But you did not address my main point. There are not that many chargers in Chicago. And many of them do not seem to be maintained (e.g. out of order, non-functioning). None of them charge at advertised speeds. If BEV did go mainstream, where are people who live in the neighbourhoods and park on the street going to charge them??? Have you ever lived in the city?
Chargers that are not maintained should be shut down. Those companies shouldn’t be in business.

I live in the city and my experience is based on that We have two level 3 fast chargers on the street within 50 m of our building but I have never used them.
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Old 11-11-2023, 10:29 PM   #12
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We are in a small town in BC. Every new apartment building has EV chargers in the parking lot and the roofs are covered with solar. It will take awhile for older buildings to get upgraded but it will happen.

Condo prices for buildings without charging facilities are already starting to be affected. If I was looking to buy a condo the first thing I would check is if charging facilities at my parking spot was available. Same if I was renting an apartment. Amenities are important.

Same thing in campgrounds and hotels. Do they have charging available? If not keep looking. These industries will continue to install charging facilities because people are willing to pay for this amenity.

Cheers.
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Old 11-11-2023, 10:58 PM   #13
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We are in a small town in BC. Every new apartment building has EV chargers in the parking lot and the roofs are covered with solar. It will take awhile for older buildings to get upgraded but it will happen.

Condo prices for buildings without charging facilities are already starting to be affected. If I was looking to buy a condo the first thing I would check is if charging facilities at my parking spot was available. Same if I was renting an apartment. Amenities are important.

Same thing in campgrounds and hotels. Do they have charging available? If not keep looking. These industries will continue to install charging facilities because people are willing to pay for this amenity.

Cheers.
We are in a strata in Vancouver. Several of us wanted charge points in the underground parking. Strata council investigated, and we needed a 3/4 vote to pass at an AGM. So we lined that up. Part of our presentation to other owners was the impact on property values for not having chargers. Real estate agents were pretty clear on the subject. We have inflated housing prices here, and people wanted to protect those values. So we got the 3/4 vote passed, but not every owner necessarily wanted to install the actual charger, they could just leave a junction box in their parking place. But then there was a groundswell of support. Out of 144 owners, over 100 decided to pay extra for an actual L2 charge point. Most didn't have EVs, but many planned to get one.

It isn't just condos. We generally don't shop at places that don't have public charging. We don't stay at places that don't have at least level 2 charging. If those businesses don't want to keep up, let them go out of business.

We just had city council pass a new business license for gas stations and parking lots. They changed the annual business license fee, but that higher fee is waived if they install public chargers. Or they can pay the the fee. Their call.
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Old 11-11-2023, 11:19 PM   #14
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But you did not address my main point. There are not that many chargers in Chicago. And many of them do not seem to be maintained (e.g. out of order, non-functioning). None of them charge at advertised speeds. If BEV did go mainstream, where are people who live in the neighbourhoods and park on the street going to charge them??? Have you ever lived in the city?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jcl View Post
Chargers that are not maintained should be shut down. Those companies shouldn’t be in business.

I live in the city and my experience is based on that We have two level 3 fast chargers on the street within 50 m of our building but I have never used them.
It occurred to me after posting that some may not be familiar with curbside fast chargers. The ones I referred to are on the street we live on. They have been there just over 3 years. There are no businesses on the street within 6 blocks, it is all residential. The company that put them in had problems with uptime. The new operator is Shell. The oil company. They call their EV charging Shell Recharge.
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Old 11-12-2023, 05:52 AM   #15
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I have a BMW EV with a backup generator (35hp 2 cylinder scooter motor) and for the most part, I don't use the generator except maybe once a month. The generator is not part of the drive train, it just runs to charge the battery if I want to go on longer trips. This format is great but has been discontinued by BMW.

I think the new Ram will be the same sort of thing. I think this does give some options to the EV towing dilemma. If the Ram can go 700 miles on a tank, and you cut that in half while towing, that is still quite a range and you can find some gas somewhere along the way to go further.

Couple that with the E-stream trailer and maybe you can drive 700 miles before charging
I live in a rural area of Canada where the public charger infrastructure is greatly lacking. A vehicle such as the Ram 1500 Ramcharger appears like a sensible solution to that problem.
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Old 11-12-2023, 06:45 AM   #16
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There has been a lot of stories in the media about demand slowing for EVs. The problem is, it isn't true, except possibly in some very limited markets or over short periods of time.

Using US statistics, and Q3 2023 numbers which were recently released, we see that EV sales set a record, exceeding 300,000 for the first time in the US. YTD the US market is on track to exceed 1 million for the first time ever. EV sales are up 49.8% year over year. Some automakers saw increases over 200%. Source. And in some US states, EVs are reaching 20 - 25% of all vehicles sold. But this growth did not happen across all manufacturers. See the attached graph for the share of EV sales among brands. Some legacy brands aren't in the game. Those are the ones who are talking about not meeting forecasts. Not sales declines, they are selling more than last year, but they are not selling what they expected. Ford and GM are both in that category.

GM abandoned plans to build 400,000 EVs by mid 2024. But their CFO said on their earnings call that it isn't due to slowing demand. Ford slowed production as it shifted its plants around. They had lower sales during that period of time. But it was due to supply, not demand. And since they are losing money on every EV they sell, perhaps they weren't too bothered.

We have some very successful EVs in terms of sales. The Model Y was reported to have US sales up 91% year over year in July. Leaving aside pickups, it was the top selling US vehicle. Not the top selling EV, which it also was, but across all vehicles. So I don't think pure EVs have a limited market now. We see production capacity limits, and we see challenges specific to some brands. But not demand limits, or market limits.

The story to me is what the manufacturer landscape will look like over the coming years. The largest manufacturers are strongly positioned on the left of the graph below. Will they find a way to compete, or will they become less relevant going forward? Their biggest moneymakers have been trucks, and trucks haven't been a large part of EV sales. Yet. GM put out a press release yesterday. They reported sales of the Silverado EV during Q3. They sold 18 of them. Meanwhile, Rivian sold 8,200, and their YTD sales are up 100%. The Lightning sold 3500, with YTD sales up 40%. Tesla is finally launching their Cybertruck (production started now; public delivery launch announced for Nov 30), and has built annual production capacity in the hundreds of thousands, with the variable being the production ramp rate. And Tesla is selling their other vehicles profitably. They have four or five years of Cybertruck orders in hand, so evidently not a demand problem. What will this manufacturer landscape look like in a year?

If you look at the chart, RAM isn't on it. So they need something bold. They announce that they will produce a series hybrid pickup, designed to ease range anxiety. Their lead headline was to the effect that they had a new unlimited range EV. Skipping over the fact that the EV range is 145 miles. Ford and GM aren't profitable. Can RAM add in a gasoline engine/generator combination, over and above the cost of the base EV pickup, and sell it profitably? How will it compare to the RAM 1500 BEV they announced for 2024?

Interesting times.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ev-sale...-pace-2bd2790e

Ford loses 37,000 per EV sold! How long do you think that can last?

GM is cutting back on expectations and backed out of a battery plant.

Dealer inventory of electric vehicles also has grown to record levels, according to research firm Cox Automotive. There were about 90,000 EVs on dealership lots or in transit to stores at the end of June, a fourfold increase from a year earlier.

That figure represented 92 days of unsold inventory, a measure of stock availability based on recent sales trends, compared with a 51-day supply across all types of vehicles.

The point is there is a slowing of sales growth EVEN with increased incentive and DECREASING prices.

This is ALWAYS how change works. You get the innovators and early adopters to buy things. Those new into the market capture that segment. BUT then you now have to convince the remaining public. And THAT is where you will see a declining market, because they will be harder to convince. This doesn't mean that new people will stop buying BEVs. But it will not be at the same rate. And when you consider the billions that have been invested into BEVs the car industry has over shot the demand. And they cannot continue to lose money per vehicle and survive.

Here is a good article to demonstrate a flattening EV demand.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/20/cars/...-dg/index.html


YET, sales of hybrids have reached record levels.

U.S. sales of hybrid vehicle sales jumped 76% to 801,550 vehicles last year, accounting for 5% of U.S. light vehicle sales, according to data from analytics firm Wards Intelligence.

Compare that n 2022, more than 750,000 new all-electric cars were registered in the US, which was 57 percent more than in 2021 and 5.6 percent of the total market. Meanwhile, the total market decreased 11 percent year-over-year to 13.6 million units, according to Experian (via Automotive News).

Not sure where you are getting your data. Hybrids are keeping right up with BEVs.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...hs-2022-01-06/
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Old 11-12-2023, 08:16 AM   #17
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Here's one of my experiences... I was driving my son to look at a used truck in Tacoma WA, I was driving my Nissan Leaf EV. It is about a 50 mile drive to our meeting place, easy 100 mile round trip. When we started, the car was about 80 percent charged. On cold, wet, dark days the vehicle range is diminished, heat, wipers, and lights need to be used, all run off the battery. So, we get to the meeting place, test drive the truck and son wants to buy it, they settle on a price. Well, the owner didn't bring the title (who goes to sell a vehicle without the title?)!! He says I live "only" a half hour south of here (on I5), I'll meet you at X place, add 30 miles (each way) of freeway driving to my car. Okay, now I'm in trouble and need to find a charger. Search the web, there's one at Walgreens. We find it, it is a low power L2 charger, plug it in, it doesn't work! Now it's starting to rain hard, keep searching. Okay, there's supposed to be one at the Walmart. We find it, brand new bank of L3 fast chargers (I think EA). Still pouring rain, so it takes several tries to get my credit card to work because everything is wet. Finally charging. It worked out for me, 20 minute charge instead of an hour plus at the L2, but quite stressful. When you get out of your normal driving area, you don't know what you will or will not find.
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Old 11-12-2023, 08:27 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by Aluminium Falcon View Post
I live in a rural area of Canada where the public charger infrastructure is greatly lacking. A vehicle such as the Ram 1500 Ramcharger appears like a sensible solution to that problem.
The Ram does fill a gap and deal with "Charging limitations and Range Anxiety" We are looking at replacing one of our ICE cars and my wife does not want a full electric. She doesn't want to be stuck without any juice. We are in Greater Vancouver and have access to plenty of charging stations, we also have our own Chargepoint at our house which we use daily.

We can't seem to find an EV in the current market that has the same configuration as our aging BMW i3. This new Ram looks like a bigger version of that configuration.

Our little BMW has a smaller battery so the range isn't great but we haven't been too concerned because of the back up generator. I can switch it on whenever I want. I could drive this across Canada without worrying about charging stations. I just need to keep topping up the 2 gallon tank for the generator.
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Old 11-12-2023, 10:56 AM   #19
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Yes the Ramcharger is a scaled up BMW I3 REx. Depending on how it drives, the RAMcharger should yield decent sales. Gotta be better than the emission-diesel for reliability. It is different enough and solves the utility puzzle.

We have the X5 45e with 4.5L/100km (from new) consumption, plug-in at home only. Drives amazing and 100% reliable so far over 60K kms. The I3's are butt ugly but are cool cars, with the carbon construction.


I was looking at the different EV options last night and my thoughts are:

Rivian captures styling, vibe and utility well in an upscale package.
Cybertruck is an innovation on all fronts. The specs are good and it appeals to the militarization of all things that is popular (eg boats, off roaders etc)
Ramcharger is an innovative play as above.

Ford are crooks imo, historically and continue to be. They steal from other brands (LR, Volvo, etc) and it's disingenuous product "dna". Im not surprised.
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Old 11-12-2023, 11:00 AM   #20
jcl
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daquenzer View Post
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ev-sale...-pace-2bd2790e

Ford loses 37,000 per EV sold! How long do you think that can last?

GM is cutting back on expectations and backed out of a battery plant.

Dealer inventory of electric vehicles also has grown to record levels, according to research firm Cox Automotive. There were about 90,000 EVs on dealership lots or in transit to stores at the end of June, a fourfold increase from a year earlier.

That figure represented 92 days of unsold inventory, a measure of stock availability based on recent sales trends, compared with a 51-day supply across all types of vehicles.

The point is there is a slowing of sales growth EVEN with increased incentive and DECREASING prices.

This is ALWAYS how change works. You get the innovators and early adopters to buy things. Those new into the market capture that segment. BUT then you now have to convince the remaining public. And THAT is where you will see a declining market, because they will be harder to convince. This doesn't mean that new people will stop buying BEVs. But it will not be at the same rate. And when you consider the billions that have been invested into BEVs the car industry has over shot the demand. And they cannot continue to lose money per vehicle and survive.

Here is a good article to demonstrate a flattening EV demand.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/20/cars/...-dg/index.html

It can't last very long. That was my point. The manufacturer landscape will change. Those that traditionally were the big players may not even be in business. They may part out their companies and keep the profitable segments. Their businesses could be much smaller.

The CEO of GM made a famous statement in the 1950s, to the effect that "As goes GM, so goes the nation". That isn't true any more. And considering Ford and GM as bellwethers of the total vehicle industry may work for pickup trucks, but it doesn't work across the vehicle market when EVs are included. Those two aren't in the BEV game yet in a meaningful way.

As such, the inventory level of EVs at dealers representing legacy automakers is a poor indicator of market demand.

Quote:
Surplus inventories aren’t a great way to make something appear desirable. But Tyson Jominy, vice president of data and analytics at J.D. Power, recently told Automotive News this is the result of supply chain improvements. Due to how the world handled the pandemic, supply chains were left in shambles and everyone claimed to be unable to meet demand for years. That appears to be changing now, with Jominy suggesting it has contributed to rising EV inventories.

"The story that demand for EVs is slowing is patently false," he said.
Source.

Recall also that by far the biggest seller of EVs in the US, Tesla, doesn't have dealers, and so isn't represented in those figures. Not only does Tesla not have dealers, but they don't have inventory sitting around. They have long waiting lists. So if you don't include the data from the market leaders, and only look to those representing a very small percentage of the market, trying to stretch that data across the full market, your conclusions won't be well supported by your data.

Let's look at your CNN link. The one entitled EVs are breaking sales records. They use the same Cox data I quoted previously.

Quote:
The electric vehicle market is entering into a transition period, she said. More than half of consumers were considering buying a new or used BEV within the next year, according to a Cox Automotive survey released in June. Just 38% of consumers said the same in 2021.
So, using the data in your link, 38% of consumers were considering a BEV in 2021, and it is now more than half. You suggest that means a flattening of EV demand. It appears to show growth in demand.

You refer to both a flattening of sales growth, and a flattening of demand. Those are two very different things. Yes, there will likely be a reduction in the growth rate. When a legacy manufacturer only sells 18 EVs in a quarter (looking at you, GM), there can be very big % changes in the figures. Just by way of illustration, they can sell ten times as many the following quarter (all of 180 vehicles) and then it could tail off, and they only sell 360 vehicles the next quarter. More sales. But a slowing of the rate of growth. Is the conclusion that the rate of growth is slowing? Or that in the last quarter, they doubled sales, indicating increased consumer demand? Or simply that they can't figure out supply?

I suggest that demand is best indicated by sales volumes, not the rate of change in that sales volume. Sales have doubled in the industry. And when discussing the industry, we need to look at figures from all manufacturers, not just the niche players.

Your CNN link also shows a graph with ICE and EV market share predictions to 2050. It doesn't show a slowing of sales of EVs until 2030. And it doesn't consider regulatory changes when it predicts 2050 sales volumes. So I don't agree with you that it is a good article to show flattening EV demand. It in fact appears to disprove that theory, at least for the next seven years.
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