Pretty bold move….

[Bill M.]

Actually there is a reason to build new natural gas power plants. Every wind and solar plant needs an on demand gas power plant to provide continuous power.

[Fungus]

I can’t find the quote. But how much extra generating capacity did Musk say we would need to run all EV. Four times? Or was it ten times? Where does that much electricity come from?

[uncle_bob]

Hi

If you tow in cold weather, pretty much all batteries loose capacity. Play games heating them and you are burning energy that could send you down the road. Folks expecting their 350 miles come up short by 50 to 100 miles. Not going to make them happy up in Alaska for a good chunk of the year.

Bob

[Daquenzer]

Originally Posted by uncle_bob

Hi

If you tow in cold weather, pretty much all batteries loose capacity. Play games heating them and you are burning energy that could send you down the road. Folks expecting their 350 miles come up short by 50 to 100 miles. Not going to make them happy up in Alaska for a good chunk of the year.

Bob

Not only that but I’ve been in a blizzard many times. I can’t imagine having to run my engine in a blizzard while in a car to keep warm only to find out I have to get a tow to get to the next town instead of finding someone with a 5 gallon gas tank.

[uncle_bob]

Originally Posted by Fungus

I can’t find the quote. But how much extra generating capacity did Musk say we would need to run all EV. Four times? Or was it ten times? Where does that much electricity come from?

Hi

Coal ... it's what makes PA great ( or I think that's what the billboard said ....

It's not just generation, you also need distribution. The gotcha there is that you loose more than a bit of power running it long distances. Having a ton of wind / solar / hydro over here and all the customers over there .... you waste a lot of electricity.

When we and 35 of our closest friends pull up to the charger in East Nowhere, we all expect a fast charge right now. When dinner is over, we all want to get back on the road. That's a really big peak load that likely goes to zero most of the day. Very much *not* ideal for a distribution system. Sure you can solve the problem. Who's going to pay for that solution? Me and my 35 friends certainly don't want to

Bob

[Daquenzer]

Originally Posted by Bill M.

Actually there is a reason to build new natural gas power plants. Every wind and solar plant needs an on demand gas power plant to provide continuous power.

One thing that has just been developed that I read in the Wall Street Journal is that a company has developed a battery made of iron that can slowly discharge vast amounts of stored electricity. That could be a game changer for electric storage.

[Daquenzer]

I personally have lots and lots of doubts about an all EV world.
1) The materials to develop lithium batteries is the dirtiest kind of mining and there is a limited supply. How is that going to be handled by the environmentalists? And do we really want to depend upon China for this material like we do now?
2) Batteries become less efficient over time. What is the cost of a new battery, and how are they going to be disposed of?
3) The electric grid. Already California and Texas are having problems. Add in all those EVs….just saying.
4) Are people really going to wait 30 minutes to charge up on the road? in the winter? with crying kids in the car? or some stop with lots of people waiting for the “fast” chargers?
5) And how is -20 going to effect the battery in Wisconsin? or another northern state?
6) And who is going to fix all these new vehicles? program them? etc.

I am sure someone smarter than me is working on these problems. At least I hope so.

[richard5933]

Two things will make or break EVs in the USA...

Range
Recharge time

They will become more and more common for daily commuter use, but not until range and recharge time can equal an ICE vehicle will they truly take off in the USA.

One of my hunches is that a major reason auto companies are committing to building more and more EVs is so that they other ancillary sectors will see the wisdom of building out the necessary infrastructure. A country full of EVs won't do much good without enough recharge stations and enough grid capacity to handle them.

Yes, many will recharge at night, but that power still has to come from somewhere. And, anyone taking a longer trip will still need to recharge along the way or it's a no-go.

[rowiebowie]

Electric cars (really robots on wheels) are coming so get ready for it. This is a technological disruption. We are in the early stages of it so it may not be apparent to everyone yet. But transportation and energy are in for drastic changes over the next five to fifteen years and we'll not recognize things once we come out on the other side. Like it or not.

It only took 30 years to transition from horses to automobiles, but it would have happened more quickly if the public could have afforded those expensive new-fangled cars. This change (from gas to electric cars) will happen much, much faster. Similar to how Nokia & Blackberry phones disappeared in only a few years once Apple & Android smart phones proved superior.

Yes. gas cars, diesel trucks, and electric grid will be severely impacted. So will many of today's legacy auto makers, who have missed the band wagon and won't be around in 10 years.


Elon Musk - "Buying a car today that is not capable of self-driving in the future, is like buying a horse."

[1StreamDream]

Originally Posted by jcl

My emphasis.

New power plants will be renewable energy, largely solar and wind. Some tidal. There is no reason to build a new natural gas power station.

I think there are some reasons … the very same reasons that most folks on this and other forums advise new RV owners to have a backup plan for power after making the big solar investment. Solar is ideal if you can count on clear skies and sunshine every day, or even most days, but we all know the weather does not have that kind of dependability.

[RedSHED]

Daimler telegraphed this one about a year ago, Pretty much every other player either has or is doing the same thing. That's worldwide. Korea, Japan, China, Euro zone, UK, US.

I have some ideas about what things will look like in 15 years, but they're just ideas.


A co-worker did buy a Model 3 and a solar roof (we're about as far north as Cincinnati). Said the roof has kept the 3 charged since February. That won't work for everyone, but it doesn't have to.

[jcl]

Originally Posted by Fungus

I can’t find the quote. But how much extra generating capacity did Musk say we would need to run all EV. Four times? Or was it ten times? Where does that much electricity come from?

Double, and that was globally.

Remember to differentiate between peak capacity and average daily capacity.

[jcl]

Originally Posted by 1StreamDream

I think there are some reasons … the very same reasons that most folks on this and other forums advise new RV owners to have a backup plan for power after making the big solar investment. Solar is ideal if you can count on clear skies and sunshine every day, or even most days, but we all know the weather does not have that kind of dependability.

If you have variable generation you first need a battery, not anther generator.

Utility batteries for solar farms are now up to 150 mW.

[jcl]

Originally Posted by Daquenzer

Solar panels destroy the land underneath. Environmentalists are already putting up a fuss. Wind? Look at Texas. Personally I wouldn’t want an ugly windmill in my backyard killing all the birds for miles.

Finally, only 3% of cars sold last year were EVs. We have a long long long way to go for general public acceptance; especially in the middle of the country with the long distances between places. I sure as heck wouldn’t want to drive across Nebraska with an EV in the winter. No way. No how.

I still do not understand the EV push. One could make a hybrid to drive on electric for 80% of trips, but then have the option of gas for longer trips. At least for now.

One article puts it like this:
Choosing a hybrid is a great way to improve efficiency and burn less gas, which means your vehicle will emit fewer pollutants into the air. Hybrids don’t require any changes to existing driving habits, either. And they typically don’t cost much more than a traditional ICE.

Choosing an EV eliminates trips to the gas station, eradicates oil changes, and provides a big boost in terms of performance combined with zero emissions from the use of the vehicle. But if you’re not ready to install a Level 2 home charging station, you’re not comfortable with finding sources of electricity away from home, and you’re not willing to pay a big premium in order to get an EV, this might not be the right vehicle for you.

Choosing a PHEV represents the best of both worlds. When driving in a predictable way, you can use electricity. When life throws you for an unpredictable loop, or you just want to take a road trip, the gasoline engine handles the job without any need to find a way to recharge the battery. And the price of a PHEV falls between hybrid and EV models.

You could float the solar panels if you like.

3% sounds about right. Some places are over 10% and climbing rapidly. My province, and California, come to mind. The lesson is that we are seeing exponential growth curves. Every place is at a different point on the curve. It would be shortsighted to ignore what is happening elsewhere, though, and not consider how it could play out where we each live. I don’t think BEV adoption is a question of if, just when.

Yes, range drops in very cold climates. We can see -30 C on our trips. We also see range impacts when it is very hot. We had a very unusual heat wave here a few weeks back, and we saw 48 C on our current trip. The cooling system for both the cabin and battery was running hard. Look for models that use a heat pump for improved efficiency. Ours has one.

I think hybrids will be less popular going forward. Manufacturers such as GM have declared them dead. They point out that it doesn’t make sense to lug around a second power train just for range anxiety and a few occasions where it might be useful. The other issue is that a hybrid typically emits more, and consumes more fuel, than it is rated to. The emissions and fuel efficiency certification tests are over very short distances, and they operate the vehicle on battery. But in the real world people drive more than the battery is good for, eg 30 km, and then they emit more and consume more fuel than an ICE vehicle with the same engine, as they are carrying extra weight due to the EV power train.

When the horse age ended we didn’t see people pulling trailers with horses just in case they ran out of gas. When the age of sail ended, we didn’t see steamships with full masts and rigging. We just moved on. We are seeing the end of the oil age. It won’t happen overnight, but I think we can expect to see the shift continue.

[1StreamDream]

Originally Posted by jcl

If you have variable generation you first need a battery, not anther generator.

Utility batteries for solar farms are now up to 150 mW.

Sure, agree, but as a matter of practicality, I don’t think there is technology on the horizon for energy storage that can hold days and more of continuous reserve on the scale of our current fossil generation capability. If generation is from the sun and there is no sun (not enough to generate electricity) there is a need for reliable alternative sources of *generation* … not storage. Same for wind …. Same for tidal … today’s energy storage solutions are relatively short term. If your energy source for generation is missing for extended periods of time storage does not solve that. Hence the long term continued need for fossil fuel generation plants, unless the public will embrace nuclear energy generation, personally I don’t see that happening ….

[jcl]

Originally Posted by uncle_bob

Hi

Coal ... it's what makes PA great ( or I think that's what the billboard said ....

It's not just generation, you also need distribution. The gotcha there is that you loose more than a bit of power running it long distances. Having a ton of wind / solar / hydro over here and all the customers over there .... you waste a lot of electricity.

When we and 35 of our closest friends pull up to the charger in East Nowhere, we all expect a fast charge right now. When dinner is over, we all want to get back on the road. That's a really big peak load that likely goes to zero most of the day. Very much *not* ideal for a distribution system. Sure you can solve the problem. Who's going to pay for that solution? Me and my 35 friends certainly don't want to

Bob

Both coal and petroleum products cost more to distribute than electricity. That distribution also comes with environmental risks and costs.

We are seeing exports of US thermal coal being shipped through our province (for now) because states to the south of us won’t accept it. Oil pipelines are facing permitting challenges. Electricity is easier.

[wulfraat]

Originally Posted by jcl;

When the horse age ended we didn’t see people pulling trailers with horses just in case they ran out of gas. When the age of sail ended, we didn’t see steamships with full masts and rigging. We just moved on. We are seeing the end of the oil age. It won’t happen overnight, but I think we can expect to see the shift continue.

I agree. I believe Electric is coming.

Daimler is the 13th largest manufactured globally. $154B euro revenue in 2020. 173k employees. Leading premium brand.

I don’t believe that they marking light decisions. I believe that they are making very calculated decisions based on the future of global automotive transportation.

Mankind has been burning oil in cars in mass production for 101 years. Electrification in mass will take about 25 in my personal opinion. We are ~10-12 years into that timeline thereabouts, I believe.

It’s pretty exciting stuff. History is being made right before our eyes.

I think that diesel could be the primary combustion fuel in the future with most applications being heavier duty / commercial, as day to day consumer applications become mostly electric.

We have all 3 in hour household. Diesel, gas and electric. It is becoming clear to me anyways that electric is the path forward. Humans are smart and energy storage density will only get better using new chemistries that we have not invented yet, as will clean production of energy, as well as energy distribution and replenishment rates. Maybe we all learn to give up a little convenience to maintain a lot of convenience.

Cool stuff. Evolution.

Search for my post on digital photography vs 35mm. Same thing here, but larger scale.

[Klyde]

Originally Posted by AKNate

Many EV owners charge their cars overnight, when the power grid usage is at a minimum, so the impact to the power grid may not be as bad as it seems at first glance. It will be significant though and I think your concerns are valid and not currently being addressed to the degree they need to be. There are also raw material issues that seem to be being largely ignored. The assumptions people are using seem to only focus on reduced costs from scale, but not increased costs from absolute demand. Efficiencies of scale won’t help you if there’s not enough copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths, or whatever else to meet demand.
Right now I think we’re at a sweet spot where EVs and hybrids are selling at enough volume that there are good efficiencies of scale, but not too much raw material pressure. I think as the volume drastically increases from consumer demand, government mandates, and manufacturer goals, not a lot more savings can be had from scale, but a lot of price increases from material demand are likely. How fast the material markets respond and how much increasing material costs can be offset with scale and increases in design efficiency remains to be seen.

This analysis is spot on. The availability of raw materials for battery production will be the throttling factor impacting not only cost but net environmental damage associated with a large scale move to EVs.

[OTRA15]

Originally Posted by wulfraat

. . .
It’s pretty exciting stuff. History is being made right before our eyes.
. . .
Cool stuff. Evolution.
. . .

Thanks for your great thread, with many cogent comments.

Peter

[uncle_bob]

Originally Posted by jcl

Both coal and petroleum products cost more to distribute than electricity. That distribution also comes with environmental risks and costs.

We are seeing exports of US thermal coal being shipped through our province (for now) because states to the south of us won’t accept it. Oil pipelines are facing permitting challenges. Electricity is easier.

Hi

If electricity was cheaper to distribute over very long distances, you would see nothing but power lines all over the place.

The problem is loss in transit. A pipeline takes in X and (usually) puts out X on the other end. An electric power line loses some percentage of the power for every mile of transport. Go far enough and you loose pretty much all of what you started with.

Indeed you can play games with DC power vs AC power. That has it's costs and issues as well. You don't loose the energy quite as fast running DC, but you still dump some for every mile it travels. Hydro Quebec (for instance) runs some DC, but the bulk of what they haul is still very high voltage AC.

Bob