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Old 01-14-2022, 07:12 PM   #161
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It shouldn't be doing better, it should be doing worse. The Honda engine won't be as efficient as a modern ICE in a vehicle, and there are multiple conversions going on.



But I don't think the proposal was to create a hybrid with a Honda generator. I think it was about how does one get back to a charge point if one runs a BEV flat in the boondocks.
I was responding to this from an earlier post: I know using the gen to recharge is using gas but itís a fraction of the gas a gas vehicle would use and only in those circumstances
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Old 01-14-2022, 07:23 PM   #162
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Here are the list of states so far:
https://insideevs.com/news/516566/st...end-ice-sales/

Washington has passed a law for 2030, California an executive order for 2035, and many others have either announced dates and/or follow CA's lead.
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Old 01-14-2022, 07:24 PM   #163
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Also, 2035 is planned by the EU:
https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/14/2...-electric-cars
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Old 01-14-2022, 07:44 PM   #164
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That's the problem I have with the whole transition. It is not market driven but forced by government intervention. There is a deadline for building new ICE vehicles set by the government.

The merits and advantages of new technology should be enough to drive the transition without government intervention forcing old technology to be obsolete.

The common analog most cited is the transition from horse/buggy to cars but there was no law outlawing new horses or buggies forcing everyone who wanted new transportation to get a car.
There are more mandates for market share (BEV vs ICE) than bans.

But I think it is pretty much irrelevant, and that the mandates shouldn’t be seen as bans, but more as market signals. Governments are trying to get ICE manufacturers to accelerate their transition plans, simply so that manufacturers will have a chance to still be in business, and not so that governments can shut manufacturers down if they don’t comply. If manufacturers aren’t largely BEV by 2030 they stand a good chance of being out of business whatever the government targets are.

Use the example of GM. They sell more vehicles in China than in the US. They can’t afford to not meet global expectations for the phase out of ICE vehicles. Use the example of Canada and the US which have an integrated auto manufacturing industry. They need to operate in synch, or both lose. US targets on BEV vs ICE are simply a survival tactic. If they weren’t there, the end would just come sooner. States see this more clearly and act faster than the federal government, IMO.

Watch the North American manufacturers vie to exceed the targets. GM announced that they are the North American EV leader, and the US president to say the same thing in a press conference. After GM sold 26 EVs in a whole quarter, nationally.
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Old 01-14-2022, 08:20 PM   #165
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That 2030 date is really ambitious. It might be possible for people in Washington State to get around in large parts of Washington by then in an EV, but I seriously doubt they'll be able to travel the country yet. That's only 8 years from now and there are whole swathes of the country which haven't really started building out the infrastructure to support this yet.

It's nice to set goals, but my hunch is that this one might be pushed back a bit. Perhaps they'll end up at 2035 like the others? Makes more sense for everyone to be on the same playbook anyway, otherwise Washingtonians will pay a heavy cost in loss of usefulness if they have to leave the state.
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Old 01-14-2022, 09:18 PM   #166
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As I understand it, most charging of BEVs will be done at home overnight, either in a garage or parking space;
Considering that this is the Airstream (you know, travel trailers) forum and we are concerned with recharging a BEV while traveling away from home, this particular point is meaningless for purposes of this discussion.

If I am stuck in the boonies with a dead battery and no charger, it doesn't matter to me that 99.99999999% of other people are charging in their garage.
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Old 01-14-2022, 11:12 PM   #167
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My understanding is that most car manufactures today envision phasing out ICE production by 2030, but in 2030, all the millions of previously manufactured ICE vehicles will not magically disappear, nor am I aware of any legislation anywhere currently envisioned which would outlaw the continued operation of those vehicles. ICE vehicles will still be around and operating well after 2030.

It's possible that by 2040, if we are still around, and still driving by then, operating ICE vehicles may start to become more and more costly as the cost of producing "petrol", as our British friends say, goes up as the demand decreases and cost to maintain the expensive and complex infrastructure to support the ICE fleet increases. By then, it may well be more convenient to have a BEV than an ICE vehicle, not only for the fueling hassle but the far, far more complex maintenance hassle.
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Old 01-14-2022, 11:16 PM   #168
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Considering that this is the Airstream (you know, travel trailers) forum and we are concerned with recharging a BEV while traveling away from home, this particular point is meaningless for purposes of this discussion.

If I am stuck in the boonies with a dead battery and no charger, it doesn't matter to me that 99.99999999% of other people are charging in their garage.
No worries, home isn't the ONLY place available to charge up, and by the time you buy a BEV, there will be plenty of fast, convenient fueling options available, including personal solar chargers or emergency hydrogen fuel cells that ensure no one is ever stuck without power.
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Old 01-15-2022, 06:11 AM   #169
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No worries, home isn't the ONLY place available to charge up, and by the time you buy a BEV, there will be plenty of fast, convenient fueling options available, including personal solar chargers or emergency hydrogen fuel cells that ensure no one is ever stuck without power.
Sounds like that should all come with a magic decoder ring and a personal flying car.

I know that what you're saying is the plan, and for many parts of the continent it will be true. But there's no way it will be the case by 2030 or even 2035 everywhere.

Realize that there are parts of the continent still waiting for cable TV and cell phone service to arrive, only just getting touch-tone telephones a few decades ago. And lets not talk about all the places still waiting for high-speed internet relying on either dial-up speeds or satellite for the foreseeable future.

These things don't magically appear everywhere, and the truth is that there will be parts of the continent where people will simply not be able to make use of BEVs for a long time, if ever. They will obviously be stuck with aging used vehicles once no new ICE vehicles are sold.
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Old 01-15-2022, 06:48 AM   #170
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Scania, Daf, Hyundai, Daimler (Detroit Diesel, Freightliner, Western Star, Mercedes), Cummins, Iveco, Hino, Nikola, Ballard, Gaussin, partial list of established & start ups in the trucking space that are developing hydrogen alternatives. If you include non-automotive, add Cat, Deere, New Holland, Airbus, Rolls Royce etc. And some of the start ups are getting bought by established players - and not for the purpose of being shut down, but very much to the contrary.



Some of this is fuel cell, some is combustion, but in both cases, batteries are not the only solution that's getting investment. For moving big, heavy, or "draggy" loads over long-ish distances, it's too early to bet against hydrogen. It might be too early to bet _on_ it, but based on what's publicly available, it's starting to look like the things you'd use a turbine or diesel for are more likely to break to H2, while the < 200 mile/day stuff looks more like battery. NB: a lot of the short haul stuff sees multiple trips per day, so (for example) my nephew who hauls gravel 80 miles each way typically puts 350-400 miles per day on the vehicle with very little down time.
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Old 01-15-2022, 09:50 AM   #171
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I was responding to this from an earlier post: I know using the gen to recharge is using gas but itís a fraction of the gas a gas vehicle would use and only in those circumstances
That's not what he posted, though he wasn't as clear as he should have been. I think what he meant was "I know using the gen to recharge is using gas but itís a fraction of the gas a gas vehicle would use overall, since it would only be in those circumstance."
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Old 01-15-2022, 09:57 AM   #172
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My understanding is that most car manufactures today envision phasing out ICE production by 2030, but in 2030, all the millions of previously manufactured ICE vehicles will not magically disappear, nor am I aware of any legislation anywhere currently envisioned which would outlaw the continued operation of those vehicles. ICE vehicles will still be around and operating well after 2030.

It's possible that by 2040, if we are still around, and still driving by then, operating ICE vehicles may start to become more and more costly as the cost of producing "petrol", as our British friends say, goes up as the demand decreases and cost to maintain the expensive and complex infrastructure to support the ICE fleet increases. By then, it may well be more convenient to have a BEV than an ICE vehicle, not only for the fueling hassle but the far, far more complex maintenance hassle.
By 2040, I can see some Mad Max Fury Road cars on the road because people will want to continue running their ICE vehicles!!
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Old 01-15-2022, 10:46 AM   #173
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Can you please point us to anything about a deadline issued by the government regarding an end to ICE vehicles? Everything I've seen so far has been corporate driven, not government mandated.
It's coming; California "State Government" ban takes affect by 2030.

https://theicct.org/growing-momentum...gine-vehicles/
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Old 01-15-2022, 10:50 AM   #174
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It's coming; California "State Government" ban takes affect by 2030.

https://theicct.org/growing-momentum...gine-vehicles/
2030 or 2035?
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Old 01-15-2022, 01:54 PM   #175
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That's not what he posted, though he wasn't as clear as he should have been. I think what he meant was "I know using the gen to recharge is using gas but itís a fraction of the gas a gas vehicle would use overall, since it would only be in those circumstance."
That is exactly how I read it.
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Old 01-15-2022, 02:10 PM   #176
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Scania, Daf, Hyundai, Daimler (Detroit Diesel, Freightliner, Western Star, Mercedes), Cummins, Iveco, Hino, Nikola, Ballard, Gaussin, partial list of established & start ups in the trucking space that are developing hydrogen alternatives. If you include non-automotive, add Cat, Deere, New Holland, Airbus, Rolls Royce etc. And some of the start ups are getting bought by established players - and not for the purpose of being shut down, but very much to the contrary.
Scalia announced their pull back from fuel cells for trucking a year ago. Hyundai has not shut down their hydrogen development, but froze at least one hydrogen vehicle program in December. Hydrogen fuel cell bus orders are being cancelled. The biggest reason Toyota, Honda, and BMW have been so slow with commercial EVs is that they spent so long dabbling in hydrogen.

I think hydrogen could have a place in heavy equipment, but not so much in on-road vehicles. Even locomotives have gone battery-electric.
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Old 01-15-2022, 03:23 PM   #177
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Scalia announced their pull back from fuel cells for trucking a year ago. Hyundai has not shut down their hydrogen development, but froze at least one hydrogen vehicle program in December. Hydrogen fuel cell bus orders are being cancelled. The biggest reason Toyota, Honda, and BMW have been so slow with commercial EVs is that they spent so long dabbling in hydrogen.

I think hydrogen could have a place in heavy equipment, but not so much in on-road vehicles. Even locomotives have gone battery-electric.
You're right about Scania. Otherwise we seem to be reading / talking with different sources. It's a big enough world for that.
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Old 01-15-2022, 03:31 PM   #178
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You're right about Scania. Otherwise we seem to be reading / talking with different sources. It's a big enough world for that.
Latest bus order cancellation, for 51 hydrogen fuel cell buses. The customer figured out that the fuel cell buses would cost 6 times as much as battery electric buses to operate.

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/01/11...lectric-buses/

We had fuel cell buses here, but retired the fleet. Our transit agencies are purchasing battery electric buses now, to supplement our electric trolley buses. And we are the home for Ballard, a main proponent of these fuel cells.
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Old 01-15-2022, 04:45 PM   #179
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I believe the government deadlines are goals not mandatory dates. No one knows how this will play out. Not even the car manufacturers. Most dates will be moving targets.
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Old 01-15-2022, 04:51 PM   #180
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I believe the government deadlines are goals not mandatory dates. No one knows how this will play out. Not even the car manufacturers. Most dates will be moving targets.
You mean like the requirement (goal) that all toll systems be interoperable by 2016?

Just thinking that if we couldn't meet that simple target, how are we going to meet a target as ambitious as no more ICE light vehicles sold in a state in only 8 years from now.
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