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Old 01-31-2021, 10:12 AM   #101
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But, Barretta2 said it took maybe 2 minutes longer than gassing up an IC. Which is it? It certainly doesn't take 28 minutes to gas up an IC. And, none of the reading I have done has indicated that you can fully recharge a depleted battery in 30 minutes. The estimates are always rated in hours. Usually, multiples of hours. I can fully refuel my IC (and I have a 36 gallon tank) in less than 10 minutes. Every time. Everywhere.


Since I am using this only to tow my Airstream, that is the only half of the equation that matters to me.
First, he is talking about a vehicle that has been announced, but which isnít generally available yet. He is also talking about Superchargers.

One can stop more frequently, stretch legs, do a quick partial charge, and carry on. Or, fully deplete the battery and do a charge from, say, 10% to full.

To calculate charge time, consider battery capacity and charge rate. For my vehicle, it is 75 kWh of which 72.5 is usable, and 250 kw maximum charge rate. Some Superchargers are at 150 or less. New ones coming, v4, are reportedly planned to be 350 kw. To use that high rate, the vehicle needs to be designed for it.

So my theoretical charge time is 19 minutes, but not in practice, because it ramps up, and then throttles the charge as it approaches fully charged.

The Cybertruck is reported to be coming with a 100 kWh battery, or an optional 200. You can work out charge times, it is straight math.

Because you canít recharge at full rate to 100%, in practice we stop more often and do partial recharges. That way we are charging more of the time at the fastest rate, and have a chance to stretch. There is always a place to get a coffee and use the facilities.

We put the Supercharger into the navigation system route, even though we know where it is. As we approach, the car recognizes current charge state and destination, and automatically starts preconditioning the battery, 10 or so km out, to accept a faster charge. It also tells us how many stalls are open.

And when the vehicle is at home or a destination charger, none of this matters. Charging happens more slowly, in the background.

If you only ever use your vehicle to tow, and never park at home or at a destination with a charger, then this wonít help you. But your use doesnít represent all people towing any more than mine does. Nobody is (yet) planning on taking away your vehicle. Over time, you should expect fuel costs to increase significantly, but you will still be able to use it. You just wonít be likely to be able to purchase a new GM model after 2035. Expect that to expand to other manufacturers. And you are contrasting future production plans with current charging technology. It would be like saying you canít use a cellphone, 15 years ago, because your current model of cellphone hadnít been invented yet.
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Old 01-31-2021, 10:19 AM   #102
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With over two million semi trucks in service today and over 35 thousand trains, I wonder how they expect freight and goods to be delivered when fuel prices begin to rise or they all have start looking for charging stations. Oh and I presume batteries will be reusable and last forever by 2035.
Rail makes more sense for a ration of that freight. Electrification is easier.

Million mile batteries are a current topic. At end of life there are lots of options. Repurpose them into a lower demand application, like a home storage battery. Or recycle them. It isnít like the materials used to make the batteries are consumed.
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Old 01-31-2021, 10:24 AM   #103
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Along with the above mentioned statement by Elon Musk (where will all the energy to charge 100s of millions of cars come from) this is the other key question. I spent many years sourcing chemicals and had to understand which markets I was competing with for capacity and on price. I gained an understanding then that almost everything you touch or see is related to petrochemicals. Color pigments, plastics from thin wraps to bumpers, houses, cars, boats, highways and the signs along them, clothing, etc, almost everything has a petrochemical component. Given time, will there be another way? Of course, but I think it is closer to 2100 than 2035 that this conversion can happen.
I think the petrochemical industry will be around for some time. What you correctly identify is that there are higher value uses of oil. The point is that given that, we shouldnít be burning it. It is wasteful and short sighted. That is what is under discussion for 2035.
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Old 01-31-2021, 10:35 AM   #104
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As an Airstream site, it makes no sense to talk about around town short occasional trip driving though. We are pulling trailers and consuming 80-120 hp due to air and rolling resistance. The combinations are two to four times the weight of the vehicles providing charging range and the trailer provides 35-45% of stopping brakes, none of that energy goes back into the battery. The end result is a practical travel range between 100 and 200 miles between charges taking 60-70 minutes to complete. EVs are not close to being ready for the RV market and won't soon be.

Before they arrive ready for this market they will first have successfully competed in the short and medium commercial haul business. EVs are coming and as long as consumers have the ability to choose what works for them at some point in the future they will be competitive choice. However, by then the value of electricity will have increased to the point that liquid fuel and electricity have roughly the same total cost per mile. This is how supply and demand works.
Current EVs are used more for shorter trips. But they can provide valuable insights into future trends.

The article is about a manufacturer who made a product development and market offer decision that will come into play in 15 years. The EV side of that equation needs to be the 2035 EV, not the current EV.

Letís say I canít stream video on my cellphone. It is technically impractical given the design of my 2005 cellphone. Therefore, nobody can stream cellphone video today. See how that works?

And if you are opting to use your friction brakes in lieu of regenerative braking, when both are available to you, you are doing it wrong.

I fully expect electricity to get more expensive. But I expect fossil fuel prices to rise faster. The business case will continually improve for EVs. And if it doesnít, all you lost was the value of your GM stock.
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Old 01-31-2021, 10:38 AM   #105
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And I never notice an electric truck hauling those blades either!
It was interesting to see that when Tesla had a big production and delivery push on in December, they put their Tesla Semis that were in test into service. Teslaís delivered on Tesla transporters.
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Old 01-31-2021, 10:43 AM   #106
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The process is underway to build the largest transmission line ever built, to try and get power from Kansas to somewhere it can be used. (Chicago and Indianapolis). Iím sure the cost is in the billions. I would also guess that the windmills will need to be replaced by the time the transmission line is complete and the power can be transmitted. I believe itís called the ďgrain belt expressĒ. Itís going through near our farm. Lots of neighbors are pretty upset about it. My guess is a lot of political insiders are going to get even richer from government funding and regulation.
If people are concerned about power lines and what they look like, they should make sure to visit an oil refinery, or even better, an oil exploration and production site. Fort McMurray, home to the oil sands, comes to mind.

The oft quoted reason for the lack of new oil refineries in North America is that nobody wants one in their backyard. Same for nuclear.
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Old 01-31-2021, 10:45 AM   #107
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Wind is very inefficient way of creating power. Then you still have get it into existing neighborhoods. Cost will be in the trillions. And in the end wind will supplemented by gas powered plants. So how's any of this going to save the earth. Not to mention the trillions of batteries that will end up at the land fill.
Throwing batteries in a landfill ranks right up there with doing oil changes and throwing the old oil down the drain.
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Old 01-31-2021, 11:09 AM   #108
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And let's not forget the "externalities" including 1000's of rare and endangered raptors, other birds and bats, the uglification of the horizon ( how does one cost that out? ). If the free market prevailed, these things would not get much traction .
Everything above applies even more to the fossil fuel industry than the renewable energy industry. Where is the outrage?
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Old 01-31-2021, 11:11 AM   #109
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JCL, you seem to have a source of endless simple answers to a slew of complex questions. What are you smoking up there in BC?
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Old 01-31-2021, 11:12 AM   #110
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2035 eh? If you care to travel anywhere else on the planet you won’t see people pulling recreational toys like we Americans.. Might be we will will join the universe in this regard. In any event I don’t think at my age I’ll will spend much time looking to the future of RVing...I’ll enjoy our AS and large boat while I can. One day at a time in the moment.
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Old 01-31-2021, 11:58 AM   #111
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JCL, you seem to have a source of endless simple answers to a slew of complex questions. What are you smoking up there in BC?
I thought some of them were simple answers to simple questions. The more involved questions got longer answers.

When you said (I am paraphrasing) that we may not have sufficient infrastructure to support unlimited BEV truck freight, the obvious question is, what else could we use, for at least a part of it. The follow on question is, does anybody else do that? Another follow on question is, can that alternate freight transport method be more easily electrified? We need to not be blinded to solutions that already exist, to understand potential paths forward.

Instead of calling the answer simple, we could refer to it as elegant. As in elegantly simple.

But back to GM, the subject of the thread, they got out of the heavy truck business. Light trucks are in very rapid development for parcel delivery. The technology exists, since the trucks operate on a return to base model. And in urban areas, the smaller delivery vehicles will look less like trucks. The market is doing this all by itself.
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Old 01-31-2021, 03:28 PM   #112
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This article might be of interest relative to this thread.
https://jalopnik.com/tesla-cybertruc...ign=2021-01-30

FWIW!
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Old 01-31-2021, 07:17 PM   #113
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Unless you are trying to cover distance. If you are trying to cover distance, spending time sitting or walking is just wasted time. If you are ambling from one place to another, thenÖÖÖÖ.
Earlier I commented that everyone's needs are different. For me it is rare that I am in such a rush that I wouldn't stop for a walk now and then. Exercise isn't a waste of time for me, it's part of my daily routine whether travelling or at home. I also tend to eat every day , so that would be another opportunity to charge up. I didn't suggest that this will work for everyone. If it doesn't work for you, then you won't buy an electric vehicle. I expect it will work for me.
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Old 01-31-2021, 07:25 PM   #114
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If you only ever use your vehicle to tow, and never park at home or at a destination with a charger, then this wonít help you. But your use doesnít represent all people towing any more than mine does. Nobody is (yet) planning on taking away your vehicle. Over time, you should expect fuel costs to increase significantly, but you will still be able to use it. You just wonít be likely to be able to purchase a new GM model after 2035. Expect that to expand to other manufacturers. And you are contrasting future production plans with current charging technology. It would be like saying you canít use a cellphone, 15 years ago, because your current model of cellphone hadnít been invented yet.
I want to thank you. Do you know how rare it is for the EV crowd to admit that an EV is not right for me? Usually, I get lectures about how I need to change what I do so an EV will be right for me.

And, BTW, in response to more frequent stops for partial charges, the time spent getting off the interstate, getting to the 'pump', then getting back on the interstate is longer than the actual filling up of the vehicle. Adding more stops for partial charges just multiplies that.
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Old 01-31-2021, 07:27 PM   #115
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I thought some of them were simple answers to simple questions. The more involved questions got longer answers.

When you said (I am paraphrasing) that we may not have sufficient infrastructure to support unlimited BEV truck freight, the obvious question is, what else could we use, for at least a part of it. The follow on question is, does anybody else do that? Another follow on question is, can that alternate freight transport method be more easily electrified? We need to not be blinded to solutions that already exist, to understand potential paths forward.

Instead of calling the answer simple, we could refer to it as elegant. As in elegantly simple.

But back to GM, the subject of the thread, they got out of the heavy truck business. Light trucks are in very rapid development for parcel delivery. The technology exists, since the trucks operate on a return to base model. And in urban areas, the smaller delivery vehicles will look less like trucks. The market is doing this all by itself.
jcl, Thanks for providing good answers to those questions/incorrect assumptions!
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Old 01-31-2021, 08:21 PM   #116
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In regards to the rapid advancement of EV's, lets look to the past. In 2008, 13 years ago, Tesla introduced the roadster, it could go 230 miles before recharge. In 2012, 11 years ago, Tesla introduced the Model S, it could go 300 miles before recharge. Todays Tesla Model S, 11 years later, can go about 400 miles before a full recharge.

Tomorrow's Tesla, another 15 years into the future ar same rate of development might go 500 miles. Not bad, but not great. If fact, probably pretty lousy if towing a normal 6,000 lb Airstream. Hopefully GM has some magic in their EV trucks.
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Old 01-31-2021, 09:14 PM   #117
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Figuring out / innovating how to produce loads of clean and renewable electricity and storage thereof is a lot easier than magically making a limited, non-renewable resource last forever. We must change and evolve to survive as a species. Why not now?

Just not sure why where would be any resistance to change on this front.

EVs do not solve for all use cases today. But we need to embrace innovation and change, whatever those future platforms will be, ultimately.
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Old 01-31-2021, 09:17 PM   #118
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I think the petrochemical industry will be around for some time. What you correctly identify is that there are higher value uses of oil. The point is that given that, we shouldnít be burning it. It is wasteful and short sighted. That is what is under discussion for 2035.
.

The highest value use of oil is currently Jet fuel, then diesel, then gasoline. Chemical feedstocks make less revenue. It's a productivity loser to save it for future use, that would be inefficient and wasteful as the time value is highest in the present. So it is incorrect there are higher value uses of oil. If at some point fossil fuels become in short supply, we will simply make it from bio-sources. It's utter nonsense to think it is productive or efficient to save something that has significant purpose in the present. Since you can't foresee the future you have no idea what is wasteful and what is not.
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Old 01-31-2021, 09:22 PM   #119
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I’m okay with petroleum being reserved for lubricants, and is switching to EVs, once the recharge rate can be solved. (Similarly, I’m fine w/ coal being reserved for metallurgical needs, and using a mix of other sources such as nuclear...)
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Old 01-31-2021, 09:27 PM   #120
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I'm surprised by those who sing the praises of hybirds and electric vehicles but trash coal and natural gas power plants. Where do they think the vast majority of that electricity comes from? Do they have any idea the relative cleanliness of a modern coal or NG power plant vs. that Hybrid engine? Do they consider the pollution generated in mining materials for those electric motors and batteries?
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