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Old 01-29-2021, 12:35 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by kscherzi View Post
I don't care what technology is under the hood of my truck. I do care that it can closely replicate my current travel experience. Out west where I live 300 miles days are common between desirable locations. Between breaks and a quick lunch that's most of a travel day.

My gas fueled truck has a 750 mile range not towing and a little over 400 when towing. That's important to me when refuelling, whether it be gas or electric.

Currently camped in a federal park campground in southern Arizona 100 miles from the nearest Tesla recharge station according to their website. About 30 miles from the nearest gas. No hookups for RVs here. Just electricity for the visitor center. Part of the fun here is exploring the roughly 100+ miles of dirt roads inside the park boundary. Not a problem with my gas truck, still has half a tank.

To my mind the real concern isn't development of a electric truck with the towing power, rather its towing range, and mostly, the infrastructure for recharging in the rural and remote places most desirable for camping. Will that happen by 2035? Who will pay for it?
You're thinking of your travel experience, and that's important. But there's also the experience of those who have breathing problems due to pollution. The experience you have when you pay to get your muffler replaced, your oil changed, and your brakes done more often because you don't have the ability to capture the energy that's lost during braking. There's the experience of those who live with the dangers of spills from pipelines and oil tankers, and the changes to climate that cause wildfires and rising sea levels. The changes to the climate affect some more than others, and many of those affected are those who live in parts of the world least likely to have the resources to deal with the change. Also, there's a finite amount of fossil fuels available, and we'll have to find alternatives eventually.

Personally I'm willing to give up range and refuel time to solve some of these other problems.
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Old 01-29-2021, 12:39 PM   #42
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"How many EV fanatics I wonder will be in line to get on the Electric Airplane?"

GM also announced future plans for that. Basically a very large electric drone.
We have electric commercial passenger airplanes under test here. They are seaplanes, with short ranges. If they have a problem, they set down. Just like they do today.

Larger planes have bigger challenges to overcome.

Electric rail is the obvious replacement for many North American flights.
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Old 01-29-2021, 12:43 PM   #43
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I don’t think folks here understand what is going to happen to travel trailers & towing.

In an electric world, “Tow Vehicles” don’t exist. The game changes completely and you pull a 30’ Airstream with whatever your daily driver is, even if it’s a sub compact.

This is possible because electric motors are simple enough to provide drive wheels on the trailer, and the trailer floor can house a massive quantity of batteries. In effect the travel trailer is a self propelled vehicle behind and under the control of the car in front, but placing almost no physical demands on the tow vehicle.

This makes no sense with IC engines due to the complexity and weight, but it’s a obvious with electric.
This is certainly one potential path forward. The drive system would be made by a company like Dexter, not a trailer builder like Airstream. It would be sold to all trailer manufacturers.

I think in practice, the travel trailer market will be reduced. Travel trailers were originally developed to be towed with the family vehicle. We won't just see smaller family vehicles, with less range, we will see less ownership due to shared use models.

If I wanted to tow a larger trailer, and needed to buy a dedicated tow vehicle to do that, it would make more sense to me to shift attention to a BEV Class A, B, or C motorhome. Those platforms are coming out now, from multiple manufacturers.
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Old 01-29-2021, 12:53 PM   #44
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When the Tesla Cybertruck was announced, I immediately put down a reservation for the tri-motor version. It’s not expected to be delivered until 2023, but that’s around the time when I will be ready to replace my current TV. The specs are really impressive: 14,000# towing capacity, and 500+ miles range. Supercharging would be tricky while towing, and I suspect Tesla will be reconfiguring their stations to better facilitate towers, but being able to charge overnight at RV parks would be awesome.

So my advice is to wait for the new electric trucks to arrive. After spending thousands of dollars on gas towing my Airstream across Canada and back, I’m eager to go completely electric. And besides, electric vehicles are considerably cheaper to maintain.

I agree that it isn't a good time to be purchasing a traditional gasoline or diesel pickup this year, unless one has no alternative. And I would ensure that any life cycle cost analysis that purchasers are doing considers uncertainties around the resale value, and expectations for rapidly rising fuel costs over time.

I don't like or want a CT, due to the size (primarily the width), and because I don't need or want a pickup. But I am following the battery development related to it. First CT shipments (low volume) will be late this year.

What is equally important to me is the announcement of the refreshed Model S. I don't want the Plaid +, with the trimotor, 1050 hp, torque vectoring, sub 2 second 0 to 60 time, 200 mph, and 9 second 1/4 mile. But I want the battery technology that it has, and which provides 800+ km range, with that performance. This isn't future, it is here now, just not in the specific model I would buy. Imagine the range with more practical performance configurations. 1000 km easy, which can be expected to provide 500 km towing. With a four door sedan. The new battery technology fits in the same physical space, as the Model S is being offered in a range of versions, all on the same platform.
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Old 01-29-2021, 01:11 PM   #45
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I always ask someone with a totally electric car, where the power for their battery charger is produced. In too many cases, it is still a coal fired generating station. So the emissions are in someone else's back yard. Out of sight, out of mind.
Who cares? Any energy source requires mining or drilling. They all have an impact.
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Old 01-29-2021, 01:12 PM   #46
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2035 Is long way off. Probably a few new car design cycles. A LOT will have to happen with infrastructure. That map showing Tesla supercharging stations is nice but wholly inadequate to provide for even a majority electric fleet. Just drive through town and look at all the gas pumps. Most of those pumps would have to be replaced with charging stations if we have a majority electric fleet....and that’s assuming we can get the charge time down to roughly the time it takes to fill a tank of gas.

Power distribution and generating capacity will need to be increased dramatically. You can only take capturing off peak capacity so far.

I think we really missed the boat by turning our backs on nuclear. Fukushima and, especially, Chernobyl were cases of gross engineering malpractice.

I wouldn’t panic about “what’s going to happen to the RV lifestyle”. 2035 is a goal which will most likely be adjusted many times as things move along. After all I don’t think long haul trucking will be abolished in the foreseeable future.
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Old 01-29-2021, 01:17 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by dznf0g View Post
"How many EV fanatics I wonder will be in line to get on the Electric Airplane?"

GM also announced future plans for that. Basically a very large electric drone.
Most people aren’t “fanatics”. Many are looking for the most economical vehicle available. Quite a few would like to just quit buying gas.
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Old 01-29-2021, 02:08 PM   #48
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In the news, GM plans to become carbon neutral and cease production of gas and diesel vehicles by 2035, 14 years from now. According to their press release they will cease production of gas and diesel as they go, ending all by 2035. Volkswagen made a similar promise a couple years ago to do the same by 2025. Its reasonable to expect Ford and Chrysler to make similar announcements soon. Additionally, California recently banned the sale of gas and diesel vehicles by 2035, expect many other states to follow.
I think GM's announcement, while a positive development, needs to be seen in the light of GM's recent support of lawsuits to challenge tighter US (California) vehicle emissions regulations. GM flipped. It wasn't a good look for them.

The world's largest engine manufacturer is Honda. Honda earlier announced the end of their gasoline only vehicles in Europe by 2026, and just brought that forward to 2022. They will have hybrids. And they announced the end of their sale of diesels in 2022, but have stopped selling them immediately in the UK. I realize that Hondas aren't commonly used to tow Airstreams, and not many here are in the UK, but the seismic shift in direction should be noted. And it may impact RAM, who are now owned by Stellantis, who are headquartered in the Netherlands, and have as a CEO the former head of Renault.

VW is the world's largest automaker. They have announced they will produce no gasoline or diesel vehicles after 2026. That isn't so far away.

GM is following here, not leading. And they are doing it because there are going to be fewer places for them to market ICE vehicles. They would have to recover product development costs from a much smaller market, and lose some economies of scale for manufacturing. Jurisdictions that have announced plans to restrict or prohibit the sale of new ICE vehicles in the coming years (generally ranging from 2030 to 2040) include China, Japan, the UK, South Korea, Sweden, Norway, Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, Canada, and 12 U.S. states. Lots of those jurisdictions have plants that manufacture vehicles as well. Planning not to develop more ICE vehicles is just smart corporate strategic planning. Will they execute on it? That remains to be seen.
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Old 01-29-2021, 02:21 PM   #49
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The article I read specified “light duty”, and stated that medium and heavy duty trucks would still be available in the IC flavor. (The Hill)
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Old 01-29-2021, 03:05 PM   #50
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Solar is the cheapest generation by far, and getting cheaper fast (dropped 90% in 10 years) We’re close to the point where it’s cheaper to build new solar than just pay for fuel for existing coal plants.

https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth

The entire US coal fleet will be long gone by 2035, and our total generation capacity will be significantly higher.
That may be true is some parts of the country. But not in Wisconsin. Over the past month we have had a handful of sunny days. Solar is not workable. One would have to have so much battery storage it would cost a fortune.
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Old 01-29-2021, 03:08 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by KK4YZ View Post
2035 Is long way off. Probably a few new car design cycles. A LOT will have to happen with infrastructure. That map showing Tesla supercharging stations is nice but wholly inadequate to provide for even a majority electric fleet. Just drive through town and look at all the gas pumps. Most of those pumps would have to be replaced with charging stations if we have a majority electric fleet....and that’s assuming we can get the charge time down to roughly the time it takes to fill a tank of gas.

Power distribution and generating capacity will need to be increased dramatically. You can only take capturing off peak capacity so far.

I think we really missed the boat by turning our backs on nuclear. Fukushima and, especially, Chernobyl were cases of gross engineering malpractice.

I wouldn’t panic about “what’s going to happen to the RV lifestyle”. 2035 is a goal which will most likely be adjusted many times as things move along. After all I don’t think long haul trucking will be abolished in the foreseeable future.
The only thing is that we can have fast chargers in our homes. That will be the place we "fill up" instead of going to the gas station. But I agree, there needs to be a LOT more charging stations if most of the vehicles are EVs.
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Old 01-29-2021, 03:14 PM   #52
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That may be true is some parts of the country. But not in Wisconsin. Over the past month we have had a handful of sunny days. Solar is not workable. One would have to have so much battery storage it would cost a fortune.
Canada has incredibly long transmission lines from northern Quebec hydroelectric dams to major cities. If they can do it with hydro, we can do it with solar.

“A 4,800 km (3,000 mi) network of transmission lines was necessary to bring generated power to consumers in southern Quebec. The network contains several 735-kilovolt lines and one 450-kilovolt DC line directly linked to the U.S. power grid.”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bay_Project
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Old 01-29-2021, 03:17 PM   #53
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There were four pipelines planned for Alberta oil exports. Three have now been stopped. The one remaining is an upgrade to an existing line, and has permits, but faces significant opposition. So there isn’t an obvious path to market.

We are seeing far more jobs for a given level of investment here in the non fossil fuel energy sector, compared to fossil fuel jobs. I don’t see why it would be different in the US.

I saw that Kentucky is building a wind farm. And Texas has made a significant shift.

Back too the thread title, image the employment opportunities in developing cleaner vehicles.
Wind farms are butt ugly to look at. Driving across Iowa and looking out at the landscape and you see these awful looking windmills. And those things are constantly down. About half of them seem to be doing anything. I can't even begin to imagine the beauty of the rocky mountains and look and see windmills. Already we have seen the elite get upset about it in the Northeast. Let alone all the birds they kill. Progress. I don't think so.
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Old 01-29-2021, 03:19 PM   #54
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Canada has incredibly long transmission lines from northern Quebec hydroelectric dams to major cities. If they can do it with hydro, we can do it with solar.

“A 4,800 km (3,000 mi) network of transmission lines was necessary to bring generated power to consumers in southern Quebec. The network contains several 735-kilovolt lines and one 450-kilovolt DC line directly linked to the U.S. power grid.”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bay_Project
Do you have any idea how much land area it would take? No thanks. Hydro electric is far different than solar. I don't want to look out across the landscape and see windmills and solar panels. God help us. And by the way I grew up in Pierre, SD. AT the time it had the largest earth rolled dam in the world (nearly 2 miles across the face). The amount of water behind it is astonishing. It produces tons of electric power. But it also creates a fishing habitat that is wonderful and maybe unmatched on any river in the country. I don't think we will see the same externality with solar panels and windmills.
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Old 01-29-2021, 03:30 PM   #55
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The market will prevail

Pickups are the most popular vehicles sold today, the manufacturers know this very well and they know how the vehicles are used, which includes towing RVs in remote areas. They cannot afford to let that market die without a credible alternative. I plan to still have my 3/4 ton diesel in 2035 and I will see then what is available and does the job. Until then, I don't plan to lose any sleep over it. We are entering a period of great flux in the transportation industry, worldwide, so I plan to sit back and enjoy the show!
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Old 01-29-2021, 03:38 PM   #56
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Do you have any idea how much land area it would take?
I do. It’s about 0.6% of the total surface area of the country.

Another way to look at it is that’s less than 2% of the amount currently used for agriculture.

Or, less than that amount of land is currently used to grow corn which is immediately converted to ethanol.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...01421508002796
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Old 01-29-2021, 03:45 PM   #57
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And where will the electricity come from? I believe even Elon Musk recently stated that a conversion to electric vehicles would require a doubling of current generating capacity. Let that sink in.
Lots of coal-fired generators, or nuclear power plants. Safe, clean replacements for gas/diesel.
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Old 01-29-2021, 03:51 PM   #58
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Lots of coal-fired generators, or nuclear power plants. Safe, clean replacements for gas/diesel.
Net, almost all new US Power Plant construction is currently Solar or Wind. Coal is net negative (more shutdowns than starts), Natural Gas still slightly net positive but won’t be for much longer.

2021 figures:
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46416

2020 figures:
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42495
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Old 01-29-2021, 04:08 PM   #59
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My understanding is that the charging stations charge an equitable amount for charging. Watts vs BTUs, you will pay the same. But you are right, electric motors have fewer parts and should be cheaper to maintain. The problem is lithium battery depletion and depreciation. It will be interesting times.
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Old 01-29-2021, 04:14 PM   #60
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Wind and solar will take tremendous amounts of land. Their footprint is much larger than oil and gas and coal. Plus they totally inundate the land and render it totally useless for wildlife, unlike oil and gas. Plus when you factor in massive mining for metals, rare earth minerals, silica and oil drilling for plastics, I’m not sure you gain much.
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