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Old 05-21-2021, 09:05 AM   #81
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But the point is still that the Lightning CAN tow. It cannot tow for 500 miles without a charge but that is not what the ad is showing. Towing the trailer shown is within the capacity of that pickup to do. Maybe it has a range of 150 miles towing, I don't know. But I do 90% of my camping within 150 miles of my house, generally only taking a long trip for Christmas.
Agreed, it can tow, just like the Jeep can go off-roading, and all vehicles can in fact drive on empty roads in an urban setting (if such roads exist).

They are selling an aspirational dream. They are saying "you could do this if you wanted to" and not showing the most common use cases.

I don't think it is lying (I have worked in sales as well, and don't subscribe to the notion that all sales reps are liars). It is simply marketing.
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Old 05-21-2021, 09:48 AM   #82
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.
I don't think it is lying (I have worked in sales as well, and don't subscribe to the notion that all sales reps are liars). It is simply marketing.
So, on his way to the pearly gates, the software developer decided instead to go the other way. After a few days he lodged a formal complaint with Old Scratch, the CEO.

"I've changed my mind," he said, "Are you aware that the lake is on fire, and the smell of sulphur is overwhelming and unrelenting. The other tenants here are in constant suffering and pain, and the Perrier I ordered upon arrival still hasn't been delivered! This is nothing like the 'rule-free, warm ocean-side climate' I was expecting."

"Ocean-side warm climate?" the demon cackled , "Ah yes, you saw the demo."
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Old 05-21-2021, 10:01 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by DewTheDew View Post
But the point is still that the Lightning CAN tow. It cannot tow for 500 miles without a charge but that is not what the ad is showing. Towing the trailer shown is within the capacity of that pickup to do. Maybe it has a range of 150 miles towing, I don't know. But I do 90% of my camping within 150 miles of my house, generally only taking a long trip for Christmas.
Another way to look at it is that the Lightning is specifically designed to tow campers. In fact most buyers will purchase and hitch up a camper and tow all the time. It gives them a nice place to wait whilst charging up, you see.
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Old 05-21-2021, 11:51 AM   #84
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I think it's important to think about real world range as opposed to published range. In a year of owning an EV, I've found that range varies considerably based on driving style, ambient temperature, and topography.
Yes, but this can also mostly be said for any vehicle. Drive it like you stole it and MPG goes way south....topology, etc. The main difference being the smaller fuel storage source.

My '15 Volt was rated at 38 per charge. I have never been that low. Dead of winter I get about 42. Summer near 60. I don't baby it and don't drive it aggressively (for the most part). Was it just that GM was being ultra conservative or publishing worst case scenario?

Fact is, no one has a lot of good data on how non-commercial EV trucks will do and even less when it comes to 3-5 tons behind it. We can only go by what the cars have done and I don't feel overall that factory stated total mileage has been radically different than stated. I firmly feel that the issue holding more battery range is cost per kWh in terms of the batteries. In 2020 the cost per kWh was about $137. The magic number was $100/kWh by 2024 and that goal was reduced to $60/kWh. To put this into perspective in 2015 the cost per kWh on average was $350/kWh

Until we start to see sub $100/kWh, I don't think you will see too many vehicles at a certain price point that can do 500 miles on a charge unless you pay the added freight of the high cost of Li-ion. Yes there are competing formulations for batteries, but even those with more density are not going to come in at $60/kWh at least short term. In my exp, I get between 4.25-6.25 miles per kWh with my Volt as mostly a commuter car. Using this completely unscientific value you can generalize how much more capacity you would need to get a non-towing range of 400-500 miles. Using this, my take is that you might need to nearly double the installed kWh Ford has put in to get 600 miles which ***might*** yield 400 miles of range towing or get a far more dense battery back that doesn't yet exist for application.

As price goes down, range will go up (towing or not), making charging still essential but not as critical as it may be today with non-Tesla charges spread out under various .orgs and less on-board capacities.

This Ford is a significant first step. I like Teslas, but my one of my main concerns is what if this thing breaks down when I'm away from home? Tesla has few options, whereas the likes of Ford have significant dealer networks. Though it is true that you could still be some way from a Ford dealer, the odds are you'd be closer to a Ford dealer driving an EV than you will be in the foreseeable future to a mom and pop or independent repair place. Case in point, I have a mechanic I have been dealing with for about 30 years. Asked him if he's work in the Volt if I needed help.

He said, anything but the drive-line and electrical. Tool investments and training are far too cost prohibitive given the number of EV or hybrid like yours out there to justify that kind of expense. I can bring my current truck to any vehicle repair shop today....in the future, pretty sure the same will hold true for EV, but that part I feel will take longer than it will take to get the price per kWh down and a robust and available charging network.
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Old 05-21-2021, 01:35 PM   #85
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Until we start to see sub $100/kWh, I don't think you will see too many vehicles at a certain price point that can do 500 miles on a charge unless you pay the added freight of the high cost of Li-ion. Yes there are competing formulations for batteries, but even those with more density are not going to come in at $60/kWh at least short term. In my exp, I get between 4.25-6.25 miles per kWh with my Volt as mostly a commuter car. Using this completely unscientific value you can generalize how much more capacity you would need to get a non-towing range of 400-500 miles. Using this, my take is that you might need to nearly double the installed kWh Ford has put in to get 600 miles which ***might*** yield 400 miles of range towing or get a far more dense battery back that doesn't yet exist for application.
It isn’t just about battery capacity, it is also about vehicle efficiency. If you double battery size, you make the vehicle heavier, and you also need heavier structures, etc, which means it is a case of diminishing returns. By making the vehicle lighter, you add range. Colin Chapman’s philosophy of adding lightness. Not what many towing want to hear.

Apparently the EV Hummer has a real weight issue.
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Old 05-21-2021, 01:42 PM   #86
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This Ford is a significant first step. I like Teslas, but my one of my main concerns is what if this thing breaks down when I'm away from home? Tesla has few options, whereas the likes of Ford have significant dealer networks. Though it is true that you could still be some way from a Ford dealer, the odds are you'd be closer to a Ford dealer driving an EV than you will be in the foreseeable future to a mom and pop or independent repair place.
There is a lot of talk about batteries and charging with the growth in EVs, but one of the less discussed changes coming concerns that dealer network. How does a dealership, which typically breaks even on sales, makes money on service but loses money on service when you consider the investment in shops and tools, and makes money on parts, survive in an EV world? They should expect greatly reduced parts and service revenues to prop up the dealership. Will those dealers all still be there?

This will impact those who don’t buy an EV, but rather an ICE vehicle, even more, as they will still need that service.
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Old 05-21-2021, 02:34 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by jcl;
There is a lot of talk about batteries and charging with the growth in EVs, but one of the less discussed changes coming concerns that dealer network. How does a dealership, which typically breaks even on sales, makes money on service but loses money on service when you consider the investment in shops and tools, and makes money on parts, survive in an EV world? They should expect greatly reduced parts and service revenues to prop up the dealership. Will those dealers all still be there?

This will impact those who don’t buy an EV, but rather an ICE vehicle, even more, as they will still need that service.
Yup, dealer landscape and their role in the food chain will evolve over time no doubt.

Installing new tires aside, I have not been in for service on my EV, ever, since I purchased the current one 3 years / 30k miles ago. EV cost of service: $0/mile. I bought the car on-line. I spent an entire 25 minutes dealing with an employee of the car company throughout it's entire life, and that was when I picked it up - 20 minutes of which was showing my wife and I around after I handed them a check.

...compare that to my 2017 2500 GMC diesel, which has been in for standard service at my local dealership 10 times over 50k miles and I've spent > $3,500 in service and maintenance fees.
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Old 05-21-2021, 02:55 PM   #88
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Yup, dealer landscape and their role in the food chain will evolve over time no doubt.

Installing new tires aside, I have not been in for service on my EV, ever, since I purchased the current one 3 years / 30k miles ago. EV cost of service: $0/mile. I bought the car on-line.
Yes, it will be very interesting to see what happens to the current Dealer Model in the future.

We did go to a company owned Tesla store to test drive the car, but there wasn't a gaggle of dudes out front seeing who had "ups". And after thinking about it over the weekend, my wife bought the car with a credit card and a loan while sitting at the computer.

There is a local Tesla service center nearby. Was in for a broken windshield and the tech pointed out how many fewer moving parts an EV has. There's just not a big market in "servicing" EVs.

Contrast that with what my local RAM dealer tries to gouge me with.
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Old 05-22-2021, 05:29 AM   #89
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I'll go the hybrid route before the EV route. The F150 hybrid goes electric for those short trips that are taken more often, but gas when on long trips. To me that is a more feasible and practical solution. And more economical. At least at this point.
A lot of the purest hate the hybrid option, but I'm a fan. You can use pure EV while doing those short jaunts or to help you achieve great MPG, and use gas when the batteries are exhausted and as long as the vehicle allows you to charge while running on petro, then you can recharge as well. I have a Volvo S60 T8 car (hybrid) which I find to be part of that 'sweet spot' in EV market because while not great as a pure EV (only 22 miles of pure EV), it allows for recharging while on the gas engine. This is something my Chevy Volt didn't do, so once the batteries were exhausted that was it, it was gas only until you could plug it in. But I think most manufacturers today have learned that people who buy hybrids do want to recharge as they drive.
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Old 05-22-2021, 05:35 AM   #90
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He said one idea was rather than focusing on charging so much, there were people out there thinking about a system of battery exchanges.
This is actually how they do some of this in China today. However, it would require everybody to have the same power pack design, I just don't see that happening. But for something like a taxi fleet, this could well be an option.
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Old 05-22-2021, 05:50 AM   #91
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In reality, Tesla has pulled virtually every automaker kicking and screaming.

Companies like Mercedes, Audi, Volvo, GM and particularly GM had zero plans for electric.
There are two very good documentaries on this topic...

1. Who killed the electric car

and it's follow-on:

2. Revenge of the electric car

Movie one deals mostly with GMs EV1, a car well ahead of it's time. Movie two deals with the Volt, Tesla, and Leaf mostly. I highly recommend both movies to get a sense of things. They almost need another movie since the industry landscape has changed quite a bit since then.

I will say that EVs aren't going to sell in areas. Just look at Harley Davidson for an example of this. They spent a ton of research dollars and effort getting the Livewire EV motorcycle out there and now they already are going to spin it off into it's own brand mostly because both dealers and current Harley riders hate the idea. To be fair this is *exactly* what happened to Chevy and the Volt. People here mention it sell well, and GM didn't put a lot of advertising behind it, but ultimately it was like this... Walk into a dealership, mention you want to look at the Volt, next thing you know the salesperson was telling you how you didn't want one and how a traditional vehicle was better. Ford may have better luck with dealerships since the general population now seems to accept EVs more, but then again, some dealers and markets just may try to do the same thing Chevy dealers did. Of course with GM now fully in, those dealerships will have to change, but who knows. GM apparently did let Cadillac dealers turn in their dealerships if they didn't want to go full-on electric like GM plans to do with that brand, but we'll have to see how it all plays out.
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Old 05-22-2021, 06:56 AM   #92
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This is actually how they do some of this in China today. However, it would require everybody to have the same power pack design, I just don't see that happening. But for something like a taxi fleet, this could well be an option.
That doesn't even take into account how much they are trying to advance battery technology to make it better and less expensive. Just think how bad it would be to lock in current battery tech for 20 years or more.
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Old 05-22-2021, 07:33 AM   #93
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There are two very good documentaries on this topic...

1. Who killed the electric car
. . .
2. Revenge of the electric car
. . .
Thanks!

1. . . . . . -->
[click on URL at top for a new tab/window with Full Screen etc. options]

2. . . . . . -->
This second one is on Amazon Prime Video for a modest price -- not sure about the first.

https://www.amazon.com/Who-Killed-El...1690703&sr=8-2

YMMV -- "Your Mileage May Vary" . . .
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Old 05-22-2021, 09:11 PM   #94
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Yes, but this can also mostly be said for any vehicle. Drive it like you stole it and MPG goes way south....topology, etc. The main difference being the smaller fuel storage source.

My '15 Volt was rated at 38 per charge. I have never been that low. Dead of winter I get about 42. Summer near 60. I don't baby it and don't drive it aggressively (for the most part). Was it just that GM was being ultra conservative or publishing worst case scenario?

Fact is, no one has a lot of good data on how non-commercial EV trucks will do and even less when it comes to 3-5 tons behind it. We can only go by what the cars have done and I don't feel overall that factory stated total mileage has been radically different than stated. I firmly feel that the issue holding more battery range is cost per kWh in terms of the batteries. In 2020 the cost per kWh was about $137. The magic number was $100/kWh by 2024 and that goal was reduced to $60/kWh. To put this into perspective in 2015 the cost per kWh on average was $350/kWh

Until we start to see sub $100/kWh, I don't think you will see too many vehicles at a certain price point that can do 500 miles on a charge unless you pay the added freight of the high cost of Li-ion. Yes there are competing formulations for batteries, but even those with more density are not going to come in at $60/kWh at least short term. In my exp, I get between 4.25-6.25 miles per kWh with my Volt as mostly a commuter car. Using this completely unscientific value you can generalize how much more capacity you would need to get a non-towing range of 400-500 miles. Using this, my take is that you might need to nearly double the installed kWh Ford has put in to get 600 miles which ***might*** yield 400 miles of range towing or get a far more dense battery back that doesn't yet exist for application.

As price goes down, range will go up (towing or not), making charging still essential but not as critical as it may be today with non-Tesla charges spread out under various .orgs and less on-board capacities.

This Ford is a significant first step. I like Teslas, but my one of my main concerns is what if this thing breaks down when I'm away from home? Tesla has few options, whereas the likes of Ford have significant dealer networks. Though it is true that you could still be some way from a Ford dealer, the odds are you'd be closer to a Ford dealer driving an EV than you will be in the foreseeable future to a mom and pop or independent repair place. Case in point, I have a mechanic I have been dealing with for about 30 years. Asked him if he's work in the Volt if I needed help.

He said, anything but the drive-line and electrical. Tool investments and training are far too cost prohibitive given the number of EV or hybrid like yours out there to justify that kind of expense. I can bring my current truck to any vehicle repair shop today....in the future, pretty sure the same will hold true for EV, but that part I feel will take longer than it will take to get the price per kWh down and a robust and available charging network.
I don’t think I understand the point you’re trying to make. You’re correct about driving style, temperature, etc. having an impact on ICE vehicles as well as EVs. These things impact all vehicles. The key difference is the availability of refueling a traditional ICE vehicle vs. the availability of charging an EV. It will get better as the technology continues to expand.
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Old 05-23-2021, 03:07 AM   #95
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Fact is, no one has a lot of good data on how non-commercial EV trucks will do and even less when it comes to 3-5 tons behind it.
Actually, I suspect Rivian does! Remember the prototype of this vehicle was driven by part of the film crew for Long Way Up (Argentina to LA California). I think they used this data to give them a leg up on the competition. The real question is now so much solo driving, but towing. I suspect Ford and others (despite the photo of the truck towing), are going to initially go after the market of truck owners that don't haul (which is actually quite significant). In this respect, it's more of a daily driver, which could aid in its success.

But the point is, there is real-life data out there for some trucks.
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Old 05-23-2021, 03:58 AM   #96
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. . .
I suspect Ford and others (despite the photo of the truck towing), are going to initially go after the market of truck owners that don't haul (which is actually quite significant). In this respect, it's more of a daily driver, which could aid in its success.
. . .
Well said.

As a broader-brush context for this monumental sea change process, within which we all are waiting, Ford's chairman Bill Ford gave a great introduction, especially his comments about a "cleaner future" which is a primary goal here, as discussed in the next post.
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Old 05-23-2021, 04:02 AM   #97
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Thumbs up

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Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
Good intro by Bill Ford, focusing on the future. Link should open up at 4:40: https://youtu.be/Yjisj5T0VqE?t=280
Gerald Kariem of the UAW 7:30: https://youtu.be/Yjisj5T0VqE?t=452
[Lightning in the middle here]
E-Transit van brief mention 26:00: https://youtu.be/Yjisj5T0VqE?t=1565
. . .
Here is that introduction by Bill Ford.

[Click on the URL to go Full Screen if desired, and then slide the timer to 4:30, or click on link in quote above]

The bottom line?

"A cleaner future."

Now there's a broader-brush context to applaud!

Well done, Ford.



PS -- "Towing" -- as a goal -- will come in time, but patience by trailer enthusiasts may be required IMO.
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Old 05-23-2021, 04:31 AM   #98
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Every Ford Dealer a charging station?

PS -- One important factor just came to light, as I was researching the proposed E-Transit all-electric van mentioned briefly in the Lightning's roll-out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
. . .
E-Transit van brief mention 26:00: https://youtu.be/Yjisj5T0VqE?t=1565
. . .
Here is the Ford E-Transit home page:

https://www.ford.com/commercial-trucks/e-transit/2022/

How about the statement, about owner support, at the bottom of the page?

"2,100 Ford EV-certified dealerships . . . and access to over 16,000 charging stations."

Bingo!

Ford's vision, for an electric work/towing vehicle, appears to be broad, well thought-out, and commendable.

With "pull-through" charging stations at every EV-certified Ford dealership eventually . . . a game-changer IMO.

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Old 05-23-2021, 08:22 AM   #99
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We put our $100 towards reservation last week. For us this might be perfect with Basecamp 16x. We are at the point that 200-300 miles is max per day. If Fords network is accurate we could top off after 100 miles and make our destination by 3-4pm. When camping at state parks we will need to power up before arriving...
I might be overly optimistic but I want to embrace the future.
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Old 05-23-2021, 12:48 PM   #100
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Originally Posted by wbrisett View Post
There are two very good documentaries on this topic...

1. Who killed the electric car

and it's follow-on:

2. Revenge of the electric car

Movie one deals mostly with GMs EV1, a car well ahead of it's time. Movie two deals with the Volt, Tesla, and Leaf mostly. I highly recommend both movies to get a sense of things. They almost need another movie since the industry landscape has changed quite a bit since then.

I will say that EVs aren't going to sell in areas. Just look at Harley Davidson for an example of this. They spent a ton of research dollars and effort getting the Livewire EV motorcycle out there and now they already are going to spin it off into it's own brand mostly because both dealers and current Harley riders hate the idea. To be fair this is *exactly* what happened to Chevy and the Volt. People here mention it sell well, and GM didn't put a lot of advertising behind it, but ultimately it was like this... Walk into a dealership, mention you want to look at the Volt, next thing you know the salesperson was telling you how you didn't want one and how a traditional vehicle was better. Ford may have better luck with dealerships since the general population now seems to accept EVs more, but then again, some dealers and markets just may try to do the same thing Chevy dealers did. Of course with GM now fully in, those dealerships will have to change, but who knows. GM apparently did let Cadillac dealers turn in their dealerships if they didn't want to go full-on electric like GM plans to do with that brand, but we'll have to see how it all plays out.
I was fortunate enough to be at a small meeting with the two technical founders of Tesla (Martin and Marc) and they made a point that struck home. Their goal was to make an aspirational vehicle that was electric. The EV1 was fugly; who would want one? They wanted a vehicle that ended up in posters on kids' walls. The original roadster did that. And the subsequent vehicles have been pretty good and created a positive stir among people who wouldn't have considered an electric car. They create cars that people want and happen to be electric. The fuel cell cars should learn that lesson as well. You will not convert a lot of people because they have a knee-jerk reaction but for others you will show them possibilities they never considered before and they will pull the trigger on a purchase.
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