Hurricane Isaac

[Bettye]

I'm curious to know who will be pulling away from the Gulf Coast with their AS to escape Isaac? What category does it have to be for you to decide to leave and where will you go? We've run from lots of storms, but that was pre-AS days. Having the camper puts a little different spin on things. to further complicate things, our daughter is having a baby here in Mobile on Monday. Her 3 and 6 year old will be staying with us and I'm not about to miss the birth of my first granddaughter!

[AWCHIEF]

Still waiting to see what the storm will do before deciding. Too many different opinions from the experts to make a decision at this time. I keep it pretty much ready to go. Just need to load some fresh food and clothes. Right now I am more concerned about the weather next weekend, going camping over at Buccaneer State Park.

[moosetags]

When we checked on noaa.gov yesterday, Isaac was headed right at our house. We live three houses off the Gulf in Santa Rosa Beach, Florida, about 40 miles east of Pensacola. This morning it appears to be headed further west to Biloxi. Of course, these things can change quickly, so all we can do it watch it and hope for the best.

We don't have to consider leaving with the Airstream as were are already camped in Lucy in the northwest corner of New Hampshire near a town called Pittsburg. Since we couldn't even make it back home by Tuesday, we are just sitting tight and see what happens.

Brian

[Protagonist]

Originally Posted by Bettye

I'm curious to know who will be pulling away from the Gulf Coast with their AS to escape Isaac? What category does it have to be for you to decide to leave and where will you go? We've run from lots of storms, but that was pre-AS days. Having the camper puts a little different spin on things. to further complicate things, our daughter is having a baby here in Mobile on Monday. Her 3 and 6 year old will be staying with us and I'm not about to miss the birth of my first granddaughter!

I'll hunker down and trust to luck, but stock up my Airstream and park it where it's safe from falling powerlines and falling tree limbs. Isaac is barly projected to make Cat Two, from what I can tell, and I don't bug out for anything less than a Category Three.

[DaveFL]

At your location, you would be vulnerable to wind and rising water, I would at least pack it up, fill it with gas and be ready to make the decision to move north, at least to Jackson Airport to be above the flood plain of Mobile Bay. Park it in long term parking and drive back for the birth.
this is the site I have been watching that seems to be ahead of the rest for changes.
Tropical Storm Isaac : GFS Ensemble Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts | Weather Underground

[Protagonist]

Originally Posted by DaveFL

this is the site I have been watching that seems to be ahead of the rest for changes.
Tropical Storm Isaac : GFS Ensemble Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts | Weather Underground

I prefer Crown Weather Service.
Crown Weather Services - Your One-Stop Weather Information Source

Bettye, only you can decide for yourself whether to stay or go. However, if you have reason to believe that there will be a mandatory evacuation of your area, go now and beat the rush. I've been stuck in evacuation traffic before. A three-and-a-half-hour trip to Jackson, MS under normal conditions became a grueling nine-hour trip. Most definitely not fun.

[mgriffrus]

I've got a driveway here in N La. It ain't much and I don't have more than a 20A outlet, but if anyone needs it, shoot me a message.

[ASRally]

Bettye,
We expect to be leaving Monday afternoon after we secure things and go through our newly purchased 25' Sovereign which this will be our maiden voyage.
We'll check the weather reports before we go just to verify the risk but it looks like we'll need to go.
This is not looking like it will be as bad as Katrina but at a minimum we may have power outages, limited access to fuel and food and heavy rain with possible tornado activity. Be safe and watch the weather forecast and road conditions.

[Protagonist]

I'm staying put here in the New Orleans area. I trust the new levee system, so the only flooding I expect is for rainfall. I work for the Army Corps of Engineers, so if I left for a storm as weak and feeble as Isaac (comparatively speaking), what would that say about my trust in what we build?

They're only predicting 10~15 inches of rain over the course of the storm, and we've dealt with worse rainfall events with only some street flooding and power outages. Plus, the parking lot for my apartment complex is surrounded on all sides by three-story buildings, so I don't expect my Interstate to suffer much from wind-borne debris, either.

I was already preparing for a trip next week, so I rushed my plans a bit, and got everything ready sooner. That way, once the storm is past, if the power is out to my neighborhood, I can move into the RV and fire up the generator. I will not move into my Interstate during the storm, however. Riding out a storm in a B-van would not be restful.

[Lily&Me]

Ya know, wouldn't wish a hurricane on anyone, but it really, really sickens me to think of NOLA and Mississippi taking a hit again.

We remember vividly watching the assault Katrina made on one of our favorite areas, watching the city fill with water after the levees broke, human and animal stories, etc., etc.

The rebuilt French market is just starting to get its groove back, though without much of the charm and antiquity of the old one, IMO.

Everyone you talk to down there prefaces stories with "before the storm" or "after the storm".

Sad, sad, sad to see this storm headed into the Gulf area.

Be safe, y'all.


Maggie

[Protagonist]

Originally Posted by doug&maggie

Ya know, wouldn't wish a hurricane on anyone, but it really, really sickens me to think of NOLA and Mississippi taking a hit again.

We remember vividly watching the assault Katrina made on one of our favorite areas, watching the city fill with water after the levees broke, human and animal stories, etc., etc.

Everyone you talk to down there prefaces stories with "before the storm" or "after the storm".

Actually, it's always been like that, except it used to be "Before Betsy/After Betsy" or "Before Camile/After Camile." I never got it, having moved here after both of them so I couldn't compare to Before. Now, I understand "Pre-Katrina/Post-Katrina."

Isaac is getting much more hype than the storm warrants, partly due to following a similar track to Katrina, and predicted to make landfall almost on the anniversary of Katrina, but Isaac is a true wimp as far as hurricanes go, unlike Katrina, which was already a Cat Five at this point in its lifetime. If you're safe from the storm surge, it's only going to be as bad as a 12~24-hour-long thunderstorm.

Best part about it, Isaac will dump a lot of rain farther inland as it fizzles out, helping a lot of people dealing with drought in the Mississippi River valley.

[Lily&Me]

Well, okay, if it's always been that way. And, it doesn't look to be as bad as Katrina.

By Katrina, we were in love with NOLA and the Gulf coast, and so paid a lot of attention to what was happening down there.

And, the Midwest certainly needs the rain. Probably couldn't get too much, at this point, although it is too late for the crops.

Such is life, right?


Maggie

[ryjamsan]

I live in slidell and we never lost power

Goes to show how different one area is compared to another

Just a mile makes a huge difference

And yes I stayed for katrina so issac was nothing but a big slow thunderstorm

If katrina had taken the same course and same speed south la would have been crushed

[Protagonist]

Originally Posted by ryjamsan

If katrina had taken the same course and same speed south la would have been crushed

As opposed to only New Orleans being crushed…

[ryjamsan]

1 it was the failure of the levees
2 gulfport/ms gulf coast had no levees


My point being nola AND the entire south la area would have been crushed which would have severely slowed the recovery of nola

Imagine an area from mobile al to br la and as far north as jackson flooded and without power for weeks

The causeway gone like the twin spans as well as the I 55

Imagine us90 washed away

No way to get into the area from any direction and you'll understand how and why a cat3 storm with a cat 5 storm surge like katrina taking issacs path

[AWCHIEF]

It is hard to crush urban myths that were created by the media after Katrina. Thankfully they seem to have kept that type of reporting out of their Isaac coverage to a large degree.

[Protagonist]

Originally Posted by ryjamsan

No way to get into the area from any direction and you'll understand how and why a cat3 storm with a cat 5 storm surge like katrina taking issacs path

New Orleans got the lion's share of the media coverage, in part due to then-Governor Blanco's and then-mayor Nagin's hysterics. But just ask the folks around Mobile, or Pensacola, or Gulfport how their neighborhoods fared for Katrina.

There is no way, by any known trick of geography, topology, or meteorology that a storm surge could get as far inland as Jackson. Anyplace that wasn't flooded by Katrina's massive storm surge probably won't be flooded by another storm's surge, either.

Isaac's path wasn't all that different from Katrina's, when you look at the whole 200+ mile radius of the storm and not just the plotted position of the storm's eye. So, your comment about Katrina taking Isaac's path, well, that more-or-less already happened, and we know the result.

[xrvr]

And now the remnants of Isaac are back in the gulf trying to reform into something tropical again. And so it goes, jim

[ryjamsan]

I never said the storm surge would get to jackson ffs
But 20 inches of rain in the pearl river basin would be as devaastating as levees failing in nola


The track of isaac was very different and any storm wiith 50 miles west of the cbd has a very different impact

Imagine katrinas surge into gulfport hitting grand isle instead


How can you be living in metairie and not understand the effect of 36 hours of south easterly winds into the lake

Ask braithwaite and laplace if they want katrina to take issaacs path
Ask people in oak harbor slidell the same

[Protagonist]

Originally Posted by ryjamsan

Ask braithwaite and laplace if they want katrina to take issaacs path
Ask people in oak harbor slidell the same

Nobody ever WANTS a hurricane to take ANY path that includes a landfall. Anywhere. Not ever.

In the final analysis, all that matters is that we each have a plan on what to do for the next storm, and we follow through on that plan as well as possible.

I won't argue anymore based on speculation about what if a given storm follows another path. People with more combined brainpower than both of us have computer models that show the effects of any storm, up to a Cat Five, following any path that any named storm ever followed. They've modeled what would happen if Katrina followed Ivan's path. Or Andrew's. I'm sure in the next few weeks, they'll have models for a Cat Five following Isaac's path, too. But it probably won't be released to the public, for fear of scaring us all the way to Missouri. Good luck getting a copy of the model results from USGS, NOAA, or FEMA once they're done, but if you manage it, let me know. I'd sure like to see it.