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LilPeanut · 07-05-2021, 08:06 AM

I should know better than to ask. Moochdocking in Tampa on 5ac with trees. With Elsa possibly coming by, what is the consensus - should we stay here and ride out whatever comes or hit the road for a couple of days just to be safe?

OTRA15 · 07-05-2021, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LilPeanut

I should know better than to ask. Moochdocking in Tampa on 5ac with trees. With Elsa possibly coming by, what is the consensus - should we stay here and ride out whatever comes or hit the road for a couple of days just to be safe?

You might want to check the recent posts in the "Hurricane Season 2021" thread for general info:

https://www.airforums.com/forums/f16...-a-220682.html

Good luck,

Peter

Mollysdad · 07-05-2021, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LilPeanut

I should know better than to ask. Moochdocking in Tampa on 5ac with trees. With Elsa possibly coming by, what is the consensus - should we stay here and ride out whatever comes or hit the road for a couple of days just to be safe?

I'm staying. The 11 am track this morning (Monday) has it staying a TS and now tracking a bit offshore.
The models are getting tighter, although the center has not passed over Cuba yet.
Now, if those trees look old or weak, I'd move so a falling branch won't go through your roof, but I'm cautiously not expecting dangerous winds. This is one of those times I appreciate the covered storage rather than sitting in my driveway.
It's slowed a bit to 14 mph, but still it will be in and out early Wednesday morning
If you're on 5 acres, it's not in Tampa proper, where are you? The farther inland, the less wind.

brick1 · 07-05-2021, 10:45 AM

Why not go north and west for a few days?

LilPeanut · 07-05-2021, 11:06 AM

I am in Lithia barely south of FishHawk. Just cleared trees from Irma so not much left but live oaks. Have some open area I could pull into.

LilPeanut · 07-05-2021, 11:07 AM

If we go, we have considered West Palm. East of the storm…unless it turns.

Mollysdad · 07-05-2021, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LilPeanut

I am in Lithia barely south of FishHawk. Just cleared trees from Irma so not much left but live oaks. Have some open area I could pull into.

You're great. (that's not a guarantee) but I wouldn't fear staying there. (unless the wet grass gets you stuck.)
I'd be surprised if you saw winds above 25 mph.
Lithia is farther inland.
Save the W. Palm trip for a hurricane.

GetawA-S · 07-05-2021, 05:15 PM

You’re probably safest staying put. Police the immediate area for heavy palm fronds, etc. and watch the updates. Grab some extra generator fuel, if so equipped.
I would not care to be traveling towing an Airstream on the area expressways among a bunch of nervous weather fugitives.
Really nice campsite, BTW.

Mollysdad · 07-05-2021, 05:29 PM

I just checked the 5 pm update.
The 'center' is now over Cuba and top winds are 50.
Computer models are pretty much in agreement with the center remaining over the Gulf until about Tallahassee.
I'd guess you're 70 miles away from the center. Remember 50 mph top winds only extend out a short distance, as you get farther away, the wind diminishes.
If this was a cat 4 hurricane, I'd be going with you. But it's far from that.
Take the awning down.

GetawA-S · 07-05-2021, 05:40 PM

I checked the www.wunderground.com 10 day forecast for Lithia. They show 25 mph winds on Tuesday night. Not worth packing up for.

Flathead1984 · 07-05-2021, 07:06 PM

We have been traveling across ND and Montana with winds every day up to 40MPH. Other than making sure any outside items are stowed, and awning up, it would take a lot more than a TS to move your trailer around.

Tomzstream · 07-05-2021, 09:10 PM

It's not the TS winds you should be worried about. You will be in prime Tornado territory on the East side of the storm as it passes by. A trailer is no place to be when a tornado hits, and I assume there is not tornado safe shelter nearby. Even if you've got good internet and can monitor the radar and tornado warnings, I would not want to be in an open field when one approached.

The conventional wisdom, as being expressed by the folks here, is that the further away from the center you are the lesser the risk. Well, this is not a well organized Hurricane and as such, the impact can be far flung from the so called center. Tropical Storms are a different beast. The squalls can be severe, esp on the East side.

My advice is to abandon the trailer and check into a tornado safe hotel if you can find a room.

I am expecting the same here, and believe me, it's the tornadoes that I worry about.

OTRA15 · 07-06-2021, 02:56 AM

Well said. The following post is in the Hurricanes 2021 thread, linked earlier in Post #2 here:

[click on the orange arrow in the quote to see the map]

Quote:

Originally Posted by OTRA15

The latest NHC Storm Surge update projects possibly 3' to 5' for the west coast of Florida north of the Tampa St. Pete area:

[click on orange arrow above to to see the map]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...Surge#contents

Good luck,

Peter

Mollysdad · 07-06-2021, 04:59 AM

I just checked the 5 am update and the only change is the cone has moved a bit closer to the west coast.
If it were me, and it is also, I'd stay. I think you'll have some squally rain and gusty wind. Like I said earlier, don't park under a tree limb that looks sketchy.
And as pointed out, storms generate tornados and that's unpredictable. (The standing joke is they only hit trailer parks.)
So, armed with this knowledge, if you decide to go, go soon. The worst weather will arrive about 2 am tomorrow morning. If it was me I'd never abandon the Airstream.
There are no right or wrong choices. I evacuated for hurricane Charlie, and it changed course and chased me all over Florida. When I got home I had about a thousand twigs in my yard and no limbs down.
You choice of going east is fine, going north just puts you along the storm path. Heck, even Lake Wales is plenty far to avoid the squalls.
This will be over by tomorrow night, so a long trip isn't necessary.
I still think you'll be fine either way, but it's up to you.

Tomzstream · 07-06-2021, 05:14 AM

Keep an eye on the Tornado Watches and Warnings.
https://www.facebook.com/weatherawar...0696253066119/

When a tropical system (tropical storm or hurricane) comes close to us to the west over the Gulf, there is significant wind shear in the rainbands. A few fast moving tornadoes are possible with #Elsa Tuesday PM. We will keep you updated. #flwx

https://www.facebook.com/weatherawar...90346756434402

farafield · 07-06-2021, 05:25 AM

Have nothing to say about Else, but I love the term"moochdocking!" Stay safe and best wishes to all of you in FL.

LilPeanut · 07-06-2021, 06:55 AM

What I really appreciate is being able to discuss this with people who appreciate my issues and considerations. The forum is the greatest for things like this. I hope to see at least a few of you in Lebanon, TN and I know I will see some of you in Marion for Alumalina in Oct.

Mollysdad · 07-06-2021, 07:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LilPeanut

I know I will see some of you in Marion for Alumalina in Oct.

I'll be there. Like to talk in person!
Tomorrow, I'd like to hear your take on whatever you do.
Here in S. Tampa right now, it's overcast and calm.

franklyfrank · 07-06-2021, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OTRA15

You might want to check the recent posts in the "Hurricane Season 2021" thread for general info:

https://www.airforums.com/forums/f16...-a-220682.html

Good luck,

Peter

Tampa rarely gets hit.
I have lieved on Anna Maria Island right of Tampa Bay since 1992 and none of the predictions of doom has matrialized.
Might get some strong winds so keep your awning in.
Relax and enjoy.
As soon as it hits land around the Keyes it always changes direction.