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Old 08-13-2008, 01:16 PM   #1
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It's not the price of gas

RV industry in lower gear as economy falters - The Driver's Seat - MSNBC.com


But contrary to conventional wisdom, he said, the high price of gasoline is not the main reason buyers are shying away from purchasing motor homes and trailers.
ďThe price of gas will impact a personís travel habits, but for the RV industry itís really about the lack of financing thatís causing the current downward trend in RV sales,Ē


Interesting. Tom W
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Old 08-13-2008, 01:40 PM   #2
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Gas prices haven't stopped us. We just made our trips count!

Makes sense to me...

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Old 08-13-2008, 02:14 PM   #3
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It's Both!

The recent high (over $4/gal.) and credit crunch from the mortgage industry have coincided to slapdown RVing temporarily. Look at the stock price comeback in Winnebago Industries in the last few days...
Credit is coming back to the market and gas is coming down...
We should be in the $90-$60/bbl which should be $2.25/gal. equivalent soon...
If you need a good price on a TV or RV go get'em now!

Don't worry about the price of gas long term just buy the oil companies or the DIG ETF and that should hedge the price you pay long term.

Be Smart,
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Old 08-13-2008, 02:28 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by bizcamp View Post
The recent high (over $4/gal.) and credit crunch from the mortgage industry have coincided to slapdown RVing temporarily. Look at the stock price comeback in Winnebago Industries in the last few days...
Credit is coming back to the market and gas is coming down...
We should be in the $90-$60/bbl which should be $2.25/gal. equivalent soon...
If you need a good price on a TV or RV go get'em now!

Don't worry about the price of gas long term just buy the oil companies or the DIG ETF and that should hedge the price you pay long term.

Be Smart,
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I think I would wait until a good bottom happens. But you are likly right. Americans will go right back to driving faster, further, and more when it drops below $2.85. We all know what happens next..
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Old 08-14-2008, 04:03 AM   #5
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I suspect that RV's were over sold and over financed, just like homes. Now with consumer anxiety, and, high fuel prices, a market correction has slammed home.

Tom
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Old 08-21-2008, 03:32 PM   #6
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Gas prices have Killed me. Litterally I dont have heavy debt load but I am a single hoeowner in a 2 income society. fuel costs and nothing to show for them.
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Old 08-21-2008, 04:30 PM   #7
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Fuel prices may not go down all that much.
The rumor is that the domestic manufacturers (plus maybe a couple of off shore marques) will pressure the government to keep prices a little stiff.

They're in the middle of changing their product mix from truck-heavy to car heavy, and if gas goes to $2, the fear is that demand for trucks will swell again and they won't be able to sell things like the new Fiesta, Focus, Volt, and Cruze. If that should happen, there is a pretty decent possibility that F & GM and Chry go away, and with them their trucks.

If the future of the passenger car industry is gas to hybrid to fuel cell & electric, simply mandating a certain fuel economy is not going to work.

Elsewhere fuel is taxed, so you can still buy a Unimog in Berlin, a Lambo in Rome, or an Aston Martin in Kensington - BUT in Europe you can also buy a , or a diesel Saab, or even VW Polo.

The point being that the auto industry in the US is in the middle of a massive gear change, and the bottom falling out of gas prices will kill demand for what they must do to survive. Thankfully, at least Lutz and Mulally seem to get it.
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Old 08-21-2008, 04:41 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by henw View Post
RV industry in lower gear as economy falters - The Driver's Seat - MSNBC.com
But contrary to conventional wisdom, he said, the high price of gasoline is not the main reason buyers are shying away from purchasing motor homes and trailers.
ďThe price of gas will impact a personís travel habits, but for the RV industry itís really about the lack of financing thatís causing the current downward trend in RV sales,Ē
Interesting. Tom W

A friend of mine who's looking for a Prevost band bus commented recently about how the price of used ones are falling fast & furiously, even on fairly late models (to late 90's)... so much so that they're looking fairly attractive. He wanted to know if Airstream made anything in the 40 to 45' range...

Guess one could weld a couple together and have a go at it...
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Old 08-22-2008, 10:03 AM   #9
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Gas price drop call update!

Biggest drop in oil BBL price in history in last 30 days, 25% diff. 147 to 111. Remember, gas at the pump is 3-6months behind BBL price. The "lag" effect should have us at a lower gal. price by Nov. 08. Don't wait to buy those TV/RV's. The dealers are givin'em away. End of year deals might be good too. Nice Christmas present, eh?

Keep Rolling,
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Old 08-22-2008, 02:47 PM   #10
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I know one thing. I travel I-75/85 connector and down a stretch of I-85 every evening on my way home from work and sometimes I go over the same on weekends and I have seen about as many Class-A's and 5th wheels as I have for the last 5 or 6 years. Same with conventional travel trailers. When we head south to Florida, I see just as many on that lonnng stretch of I-75 as I have for the last 8 or so years. Point is, people have them and are using them. They may not be trading or buying first time, but those that have them are using them.

As was stated earlier, when the fuel prices settle at a lower rate, or when we get used to them at what ever rate they settle at, we will see the "market correction" begin to wain and see the market bounce back or at least some recovery.

I think that no matter what the market demands for passenger cars, there will always be a demand for full-sized trucks, if not for personal use, then for commercial use, and if we have to give up the creature comforts to have a tow vehicle, we will buy commercial vehicles. Of course, a good percentage of the tricked out F-250's are being bought by self-employed and small business owners now and that will probably ensure that they will be on the market when we get ready to trade in the future. If they aren't, that will just strengthen the after market for all those creature comforts to be installed after the sale and increase the industry.
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Old 08-22-2008, 03:54 PM   #11
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I am dead in the water. My next investment will be a big log splitter. I feed my wood burner all winter long. All winter long the gas company keeps comeing out to check my meter. They replaced it 2 in 06, 1 time in 07. I suspect that I will get at least 1 this year also.
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Old 08-22-2008, 04:08 PM   #12
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Biggest drop in oil BBL price in history in last 30 days, 25% diff. 147 to 111.
Keep Rolling,
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Heard it went up to 122 today because of the events in Georgia with the Russians...

Am surprised the prices didn't rise as a result of the eclipse in northern Europe the week before last..... or because we're finally getting some rain down here...... Whatever though, looks like folks will keep on traveling, with perhaps a slight change in migratory habits...
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Old 08-22-2008, 04:16 PM   #13
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A friend of mine who's looking for a Prevost band bus commented recently about how the price of used ones are falling fast & furiously, even on fairly late models (to late 90's)... so much so that they're looking fairly attractive. He wanted to know if Airstream made anything in the 40 to 45' range...

Guess one could weld a couple together and have a go at it...
They do have some relatively late model coaches around 40'.
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Old 08-31-2008, 09:42 PM   #14
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They are talking today ifgustav hurts the oil riggs we could see $5.00 a gallon. How come it takes them 3 to 6 months to dropp to the $111.00 a barrel price but they jump instantly with just the thought of a storm.
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Old 09-04-2008, 12:47 PM   #15
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Oil sitting at 108bbl now, any move up is just temporary and a great place to look smart. Tell your friends to get ready for cheap gas!
Global economy and U.S. slowing down dramatically = lower prices on everything!
Cash is going to buy you some real opportunities!

Going down, down
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Old 09-04-2008, 12:59 PM   #16
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If Gustav hurts rigs, current oil in the barrel becomes more valuable because the supply for current delivery might be restricted.... It takes 3-6 months to process oil to gas, pump, deliver, refine, store, distribute to gas stations. Oil price jumps rapidly based on expectations of short term supply demand issues, Gustav could limit supply for uncertain period, remember Kat? Gas at the pump is based on the old price for Oil 3-6 months ago... 147.5bbl old high. Gas prices rise and fall smoothly based on the cost of the Oil refined...Oil changes prices every minute... could you imagine if gas was priced by the minute? It would drive us crazy.

Lesson over,
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Old 09-04-2008, 01:11 PM   #17
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In our area, two RV dealers have gone out of business, as well as several car dealers (including a Volvo dealership and a Ford dealership). I am waiting for the new Blue-Tech diesels from Europe before selling my 2001 VW. The local Mercedes dealership had folks returning their leased cars....just driving in and handing over the keys! I think car sales really suffer when folks are feeling uncomfortable with the economy!

We have made fewer trips this year, but I think we spend the gas $$$ in lieu of other things we may not really need. And, we plan our around-town trips more carefully....
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Old 09-04-2008, 07:49 PM   #18
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Hang on DURAMAX(Isuzu) Which makes engines for GM announced this morning they will layoff Permanently 350 employees at its KETTERING ENGINE PLANT(Dayton,Ohio) This plant originally employed 1200 people. The reason given was sagging SUV and Lite trucks sales.
Roger
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Old 09-04-2008, 09:22 PM   #19
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I cant speak to sales of RVs, however, I did notice that a large proportion of RVs out on the road this summer that I encountered were rental RVs with European families. I suspect that between Europeans being used to higher priced fuel and the relative strength of the euro to the dollar, that driving around the US at the summer prices looked like a good deal. Another observation that really troubled me was what I perceived to be a dramatic decrease in tent campers. I suspect that this reflects the number of lower income folks who couldn't swing the extra bucks to drive to the mountains to camp. If I am correct about that, then the margin that a whole bunch of people in this country are living on is way, way to thin. Virtually everywhere I went the tents were virtually non-existent. I worry about that.
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Old 09-04-2008, 09:38 PM   #20
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Another observation that really troubled me was what I perceived to be a dramatic decrease in tent campers. I suspect that this reflects the number of lower income folks who couldn't swing the extra bucks to drive to the mountains to camp. If I am correct about that, then the margin that a whole bunch of people in this country are living on is way, way to thin. Virtually everywhere I went the tents were virtually non-existent. I worry about that.
I think a lot of that is that more and more people have switched from tents to travel trailers and motor homes. We don't rough it as much as we used to.
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