It's not the price of gas

[bizcamp]

Originally Posted by CrawfordGene

I guess this will fire up the torch bearers, but no matter how much petroleum is found, burning it causes pollution, warms the planet, and much of it comes from places where we by buying it are supporting cruel dictatorships.

Gene

What do they use in those torches?

Virtually no emissions, 5 to one gas mileage means using only 20% of the gas used today. If the majority of oil goes to gas for mobility and the new power plant is a commercial success, the world will be using 80% less oil/gas. What is the price for a gallon of gas when you have 80% too much? 1$/gal? Cleaner burn, better mileage, we have enough oil domestically and more from Brazil, we don't have to buy a drop from the bad guys...
Plus, replace all cars with the new tech...which will eventually happen and you have the answer to the slow economy, eh?

All problems solved...

Bizcamp

[Gene]

Originally Posted by bizcamp

What do they use in those torches?

LED torches!

Gene

[kingfisher24]

it is that oil is priced in dollars$$$$$$ and like they say it works until it doesn't........most of the oil producers are fed up with our dollar shennigans and as the dollar becomes (thanks to our government/FED) more than worthless oil will become more scarce in dollar terms...there may indeed be no "peak oil"....but there is a peak dollar..... and it will buy less and less oil in the future

[bizcamp]

Originally Posted by kingfisher24

it is that oil is priced in dollars$$$$$$ and like they say it works until it doesn't........most of the oil producers are fed up with our dollar shennigans and as the dollar becomes (thanks to our government/FED) more than worthless oil will become more scarce in dollar terms...there may indeed be no "peak oil"....but there is a peak dollar..... and it will buy less and less oil in the future

Yes, oil is priced in dollars, but if you don't have to buy foreign oil, who cares? Dollars are dollars!
We have enough oil in US to power all our needs when we get 100MPG. We are the producer! If usage of gas/oil is 80% less than now, you have massive overcapacity, those foreign producers will be giving it away.
We are their biggest market and that won't change for a long time. The oil producers won't have enough cash flow at the lower prices to pay for toilet paper! They will have to sell more oil at lower prices to make up the drop in revenue from the efficiency pop and oil will go lower in price because they will flood the market!

Bizcamp

[bizcamp]

Originally Posted by CrawfordGene

LED torches!

Gene

LOL! Recharged from your hybrid car that gets 100 MPG!

Bizcamp

[bizcamp]

Originally Posted by CrawfordGene

I guess this will fire up the torch bearers, but no matter how much petroleum is found, burning it causes pollution, warms the planet, and much of it comes from places where we by buying it are supporting cruel dictatorships.

Gene

G,

With the new technology there is virtually no pollution, no more catalytic converters, that saves about a grand. The power plant has virtually no maintenence, no motor oil, no radiator, no transmission oil, only tires and brakepads. The savings from minimal upkeep and zero repairs is money in the bank. Fuel savings is bigtime folding money. The shot in the arm to the economy to replace all the combustos is a win, win, win, win.... count me in!

P.s. don' t worry about the torchies, they are still using buggy-whips and pencil and paper!

Bizcamp

[RedSHED]

Originally Posted by bizcamp

G,

With the new technology there is virtually no pollution, no more catalytic converters, that saves about a grand. The power plant has virtually no maintenence, no motor oil, no radiator, no transmission oil, only tires and brakepads. The savings from minimal upkeep and zero repairs is money in the bank. Fuel savings is bigtime folding money. The shot in the arm to the economy to replace all the combustos is a win, win, win, win.... count me in!
...

You've described the bicycle I commute with.

[bizcamp]

Originally Posted by RedSHED

You've described the bicycle I commute with.

As efficient as a bicycle, but it can pull an Airstream!

Sounds familiar doesn't it?

What is the name of the guy that's in the photo on the bike pulling the AS?
Hybrid Harry?

Bizcamp

[bizcamp]

Well, Looks like the industry is starting to sell again. So, its not the end of the world and someone got some really good deals, eh?

Price of gas has topped again and may beginning its generational slide in price.

If the numbers are correct, then we will be looking at lower an lower prices at the pump as the efficiencies start hitting the market. Remember we have a prototype that gets 100 miles to the gallon and that means 4x less gas to go the distance. Who's going to buy all that gas? What's the price if there is too much to go around? Oh, the paradox...TOO MUCH GAS? Who is going to believe that?

I wonder how many will start to right size their living costs and find the advantages of the living with less?
Have a happy TDay!
Bizcamp

[pinyon]

^^
Generational slide? Looks to me like slow but sure increase due to dollar slide.

And while 100 mpg is great, when are they available at what price. If you're replacing the mid-sized segment (Camry,Accord,Fusion,Malibu,etc.) that sells ~100,000 vehicles a month at <$30,000 how many years before this can really happen? So for now there will be plenty of buyers for the $3+ per gallon gas.

[RedSHED]

Originally Posted by bizcamp

Well, Looks like the industry is starting to sell again. So, its not the end of the world and someone got some really good deals, eh?

Price of gas has topped again and may beginning its generational slide in price.
...

What I read in the automotive/trucking trade press is that a moderate worldwide economic recovery is expected to push oil prices back up to the low-mid 100's in the 2011-2015 time frame.

I do not read the oil industry trade publications, so cannot comment on their take.

There are some interesting dynamics at work, and for perhaps the first time in all of our lives, the automotive & trucking industries are leaning toward supporting higher fuel prices albeit for slightly different reasons.

It may be that fuel prices will stabilize in the $2-$3 range, but the coldly analytical side of my brain says that's kind of a long shot.

[Gene]

The higher fuel prices go the more incentive there is to buy fuel efficient vehicles and use renewable sources for power production and heating, or, drive less, turn down thermostats, and build smaller houses.

The less call there is for petroleum, the lower prices are.

Developing countries use more energy, and the populations want to be like us—have cars and lots of them. Some of these countries have the resources to reduce their need for petroleum (for ex., China), some don't.

Developing alternative sources of energy is capital intensive and it's hard to predict where the money's going to come from. Developing fuel efficient motor vehicles is also capital intensive and along with better batteries, is somewhat dependent on the genius of discovery—is there someone who will come up with far more efficient batteries or photovoltaic solar panels and then will they go into production quickly?

OPEC tries to balance production to keep prices around where they are now, however sometimes greed gets hold of them and they try boost prices by cutting production or cheat on quotas to get more for the individual country. There's a tricky balancing act going on there and sometimes they do it well, sometimes not.

Some industries don't want to change anything and believe there's no reason to find alternatives to petroleum—how powerful will they remain?

People make a difference in their habits—for ex., plastic bags are made of oil and gas, but more people are using cloth bags. Plastic bottles are being phased out for a variety of reasons. As plastic is found to be wasteful, or some of them have toxicity problems, people turn away from plastic and it makes a difference too.

There is talk about reducing the possibility of speculation on the commodity exchanges—that could moderate prices too if it comes to be.

So, predicting what gas will cost in 2015 is kind of difficult.

Gene

[Wayne&Sam]

One way they can achieve 100mpg is by using a hybrid that has a total electric mode. If it can go 70 miles on no gas in full electric mode and another 30 miles burning one gallon in hybrid mode, you get 100mpg. The next 100 miles you drive will lower the overall mpg as you are no longer using the full electric mode.

[bizcamp]

Originally Posted by pinyon

^^
Generational slide? Looks to me like slow but sure increase due to dollar slide.

And while 100 mpg is great, when are they available at what price. If you're replacing the mid-sized segment (Camry,Accord,Fusion,Malibu,etc.) that sells ~100,000 vehicles a month at <$30,000 how many years before this can really happen? So for now there will be plenty of buyers for the $3+ per gallon gas.

There is a certain group that thinks that the dollar is about to go up as the "shorts" cover and the world looks to a safe haven...
The dollar is historically low and "everyone thinks the dollar will keep going down."
This is a good time to think about the reasons for the dollar to go up...
Be a leader not a follower, its harder to get run over if you are out in front!

The price point is not figured yet, the prototype is being commercialized.
My feel is that they can do it for the same cost of current combustion based transportation, in other words...same price...
1-2 years out for delivery and 12 years for complete penetration of the market... This means the same percentage ownership as today vs collectors and people that can't afford brand new.

This is an economical revolution that is based on the environment winning, the owner of a car can now have a low to no cost mode of transport (winner) and the affordability of oil for all mobile transport will go down(winner)...more on that later if you are interested...This is a win for all with a payback for all that participate.
Nothing this big changes unless everyone is a winner....
If the economics are there then it is a done deal....thats my bet, done deal.

As for plenty of buyers for $3 gas, ok, how many more buyers can afford $1 gas? More methinks...
This is not a matter of looking at the past history of oil and the producers and thinking it will repeat...sooner or later the change will come...specially if trillions is at stake...get a piece of it!

Rev It Up,
Bizcamp

[bizcamp]

Originally Posted by RedSHED

What I read in the automotive/trucking trade press is that a moderate worldwide economic recovery is expected to push oil prices back up to the low-mid 100's in the 2011-2015 time frame.

I do not read the oil industry trade publications, so cannot comment on their take.

There are some interesting dynamics at work, and for perhaps the first time in all of our lives, the automotive & trucking industries are leaning toward supporting higher fuel prices albeit for slightly different reasons.

It may be that fuel prices will stabilize in the $2-$3 range, but the coldly analytical side of my brain says that's kind of a long shot.

I don't read the "experts" because they are just as human as the rest of us and therefore prone to group think and job security...they can't really look to the future because it is their job to look at the next Quarter...their timeframe is too small to see the big picture...they are worried about getting it right for the next pay period. Follow the predictions by these experts for awhile and you will find that they are fairly inaccurate over time...
The History of Change and how it affects and effects is more likely to lead to the breakthrough that I'm talking about.

Does anyone want to pay more, when they can pay less? I don't care who supports higher prices...when you have 5 times more gas than you have before, you have a supply and demand imbalance...what happens when you have 5 times more of anything permanently..lower price!

The price of gas will "stabilize" wherever demand meets supply! That'll be the price. 5times more, 3.00/5=.60. Sixty cent gas? Crazy man!

Longshots are what make the change!

It's a Gas, man!
Bizcamp

[bizcamp]

Originally Posted by CrawfordGene

The higher fuel prices go the more incentive there is to buy fuel efficient vehicles and use renewable sources for power production and heating, or, drive less, turn down thermostats, and build smaller houses.

The less call there is for petroleum, the lower prices are.

Developing countries use more energy, and the populations want to be like us—have cars and lots of them. Some of these countries have the resources to reduce their need for petroleum (for ex., China), some don't.

Developing alternative sources of energy is capital intensive and it's hard to predict where the money's going to come from. Developing fuel efficient motor vehicles is also capital intensive and along with better batteries, is somewhat dependent on the genius of discovery—is there someone who will come up with far more efficient batteries or photovoltaic solar panels and then will they go into production quickly?

OPEC tries to balance production to keep prices around where they are now, however sometimes greed gets hold of them and they try boost prices by cutting production or cheat on quotas to get more for the individual country. There's a tricky balancing act going on there and sometimes they do it well, sometimes not.

Some industries don't want to change anything and believe there's no reason to find alternatives to petroleum—how powerful will they remain?

People make a difference in their habits—for ex., plastic bags are made of oil and gas, but more people are using cloth bags. Plastic bottles are being phased out for a variety of reasons. As plastic is found to be wasteful, or some of them have toxicity problems, people turn away from plastic and it makes a difference too.

There is talk about reducing the possibility of speculation on the commodity exchanges—that could moderate prices too if it comes to be.

So, predicting what gas will cost in 2015 is kind of difficult.

Gene

Hey Gene

If the car you replace that clunker with is making you money then the conversion to the new regime might be faster than we think...look at acceptance of the Prius as a poor but recent example of change leading to acceptance.
New regime is 100 mpg. 4x less fuel to do the same thing...save money.
Very low emissions will possibly result in a carbon credit to the owner..Make money.
Zero maintenence is going to save a lot of money and time.
The infrastructure remains the same, deliver gas..but the maintenence infrastructure goes away... I'll pay for that!

With lower cost for gas, credits for emmissions and cost and time savings from x-ing maintenance, I can imagine a day when the car might cost virtually nothing compared to today...

The world can have a higher standard of living.
The world will have less pollution with more drivers...
The cost of gas will be affordable if we use it more efficiently...

If the rest of the world is going to start driving, this seems to be a great alternative, eh?

This is the real alternative in Alternative Energy!

That other stuff, windmills, solar, bio-based fuels will be increasing but not without a lot of Capital and a lot of Change....

The best change is "more change in your pocket."
It doesn't hurt to help the environment too..


The Economical Greenie,
Bizcamp

[Gene]

Biz', I think it's essential to help the environment and hope the switch to renewable resources happens quickly. Trying to predict how and when is difficult.

I hope to be around to see how it sorts out.

Gene

[bizcamp]

Originally Posted by CrawfordGene

Biz', I think it's essential to help the environment and hope the switch to renewable resources happens quickly. Trying to predict how and when is difficult.

I hope to be around to see how it sorts out.

Gene

G,
Prediction is not possible, progress toward the potential is...
I don't try to predict but project...
Projection is the process of knowing the variables that matter and seeing them line up for a high probability of successfully occurring in the future.
The process of change is always gradual when it is global.. (read Big) This makes it hard for the reg. guy to "see" the change...he is more used to abrupt small moves like crashing a car...spilling a cup of coffee...these are typical human experience and their predominant experience and therefore what most people are tuned to.
It takes years of training, creativity, lots of curiosity to undo the human behaviors that cloud ones ability to see the "truth" vs the fad...
"Don't predict, project!"
I agree that one should be respectful of any decision that pollutes, but it is an economical thought process that will change it, not throwing money we don't have at a problem that is not proved (global warming)....
Live and spend respectfully....if it is right and everyone has an economic incentive to do the right thing then, it will happen....make money and do good.
I would rather invest money and make money...than invest money with the chance of making money. RRR, Rapid Rate of Return is preferable to PRR possible rate of return.
People in general are not good with self-sacrifice but if it makes them money they will come....
Plus, making money while doing the right thing will generate more money to do more right things....
Money does grow on trees, raise trees....
I hope you enjoy the journey.....
"Live long and prosper."
The Vulcans had it right!

Biz

[bizcamp]

Originally Posted by bizcamp

There is a certain group that thinks that the dollar is about to go up as the "shorts" cover and the world looks to a safe haven...
The dollar is historically low and "everyone thinks the dollar will keep going down."
This is a good time to think about the reasons for the dollar to go up...
Be a leader not a follower, its harder to get run over if you are out in front!

The price point is not figured yet, the prototype is being commercialized.
My feel is that they can do it for the same cost of current combustion based transportation, in other words...same price...
1-2 years out for delivery and 12 years for complete penetration of the market... This means the same percentage ownership as today vs collectors and people that can't afford brand new.

This is an economical revolution that is based on the environment winning, the owner of a car can now have a low to no cost mode of transport (winner) and the affordability of oil for all mobile transport will go down(winner)...more on that later if you are interested...This is a win for all with a payback for all that participate.
Nothing this big changes unless everyone is a winner....
If the economics are there then it is a done deal....thats my bet, done deal.

As for plenty of buyers for $3 gas, ok, how many more buyers can afford $1 gas? More methinks...
This is not a matter of looking at the past history of oil and the producers and thinking it will repeat...sooner or later the change will come...specially if trillions is at stake...get a piece of it!

Rev It Up,
Bizcamp

The quote "affordability of oil will go down (winner)" should be price of oil will go down!

[RedSHED]

Bob Lutz comments at LA auto show tonight (from Autoblog)

11:55 - "The auto industry can no longer rely on oil for 98% of its power."
11:56 - GM's working to get China off petroleum.
...
12:09 - Lutz says we're going to look back at this moment as the "tipping point" for electric vehicles and it will prove to be as momentous as the transition from horse and buddy buggy to cars.
...
12:20 - The way to electrify the infrastructure is ("sadly") a federal tax on fuel. Cheap gas means fewer electric cars.

Betcha Mullaly and Sergio (Ford and Fiat/Chrysler) have a very similar speech available.