Where is the Airstream market at? Outlook over the coming years and advice on buying

[justcynn]

Originally Posted by JeffKim

I I'm not a fan of using 401K for this, AFAIK unless you're retirement age then there's a penalty + taxes, and yes you're paying yourself interest, but you're paying it instead of someone else. In time the pain eases or you just get used to it. I also think interest rates will come down so refinancing is an option.

I believe the rules vary by the plan. In my plan, I can take a 50K loan up to 5 years and have to pay myself market interest which is currently 8.5%. No tax penalty's or anything like that. You do pay back the loan after tax but you also pay back any other loan after tax. I have done the math and you would be hurting yourself if your plan earned more than 8.5% over that stretch. I am not counting on that The only negative is if I were to leave my employer, I would have to pay it back before leaving the company or pay the tax penalty, but I don't plan to do that and have long term incentive to retire where I am. Sill not my first option to take money out of the 401K but I hate paying someone else this much interest too while my 401k is currently earning less than a High Yield Savings Account

I agree there is no way to make the math work on a purchase like this, we bought it because we like to camp, can afford it (kinda and plan to have it for 25 years health willing

[farafield]

I'm just going to use this space to express my frustration at the lack of maintenance and repair support for Airstreams once you've bought them. There is one dealer anywhere close to me and they have been unable to help me out for years. Thankfully nothing serious, and heaven forbid that happens. I am unable for several reasons to just make a many day trip to the mother ship.

[uncle_bob]

Originally Posted by Replant

Hi all,

I was curious how the seasoned airstream vets on this forum felt about the outlook for airstreams over the next few years, particularly general thoughts on:

1. Is the market for airstreams going to continue to be strong?
2. Are resale values for newer model airstreams projected to hold?
3. Where is the resale market currently at and where's it heading post-Covid?

Also, and probably my most important question:

4. What year range of airstreams do you think offers the best value? Getting a 2020 which is essentially new at a discount, something from the early 00s, or something older that's been well maintained?

It's been about 15 years since I was first interested in purchasing an air stream, and I'm finally getting ready to pull the trigger, but I don't feel like I have a strong pulse on the new or resale market, so any and all advice is welcome!

We'll be practically using it for family travel with two young kids, and I'd prefer to stay in the 16-25 foot range if that's helpful info. Northern Canada so it'll be used a minimum of 3 seasons, dabbling into the 4th.

Hi

More or less ....

Right now the entire RV market is depressed. Good time to buy / bad time to sell. That's true regardless of the brand / size / model / age of the RV. It's cold "up north" and that kills the market. We just came off several years of folks buying everything in sight. That now is correcting. Two cycles, both at a dip right now.

None of this is all the unusual in the RV world. It's always been cyclical. Will it turn around in 2, 3, 5, .... 10 ... years? There's no way to be sure. Three years isn't a bad bet based on past history.

Well maintained on any RV is sort of an impossible to prove kind of thing. One that's been trashed is pretty obvious. With an AS, there is a pretty wide range between "not trashed" and well maintained. Buy one and own it for 6 years. Then you will have a pretty good idea of what sort of shape it's in.

No RV is indestructible. They all have weak points. The older they are, the more likely work will be needed. Floor rot in an AS is not unheard of. It also is not as easy to spot as one might think. The older the trailer, the more likely it is. There are all sorts of little things like this, each of them a bit less likely than the other.

For almost as long as AS has been in business, folks have been talking about how "they made them better back in the old days". The gotcah with that is some of us have been hearing exactly the same stories about "the troubles with the new ones" for over 60 years now.

In one case, I can point to *exactly* the same issue on my 2017 as folks complained about in 1957. Yes, it's really weird that I remember that conversation. I also remember the subsequent discussion about "how easy that would be to fix". (Just spend another couple man weeks or so doing this or that on each trailer ....).

In a "normal" market, one *might* get a new AS for 20% off MSRP. Getting >10% off is pretty common. I would suggest that 90% of MSRP should be the basis for looking at any of these. Prices have gone up over the years. Paying more for a new one than it (likely) originally sold for .... hmmm .....

No matter how well taken care of, things like appliances, tires, brakes and the like do eventually wear out. At some point frames start to rust. All of that can be repaired. It just is going to take some time and cost some money. If you are handy and like DIY projects, it may not be crazy expensive. If you want a pro to do the work, that's may be a bit involved and a bit expensive.

Lots of variables.

Bob

[3OnOurWay]

Originally Posted by uncle_bob

Hi

More or less ....

Right now the entire RV market is depressed. Good time to buy / bad time to sell. That's true regardless of the brand / size / model / age of the RV. It's cold "up north" and that kills the market. We just came off several years of folks buying everything in sight. That now is correcting. Two cycles, both at a dip right now.

In a "normal" market, one *might* get a new AS for 20% off MSRP. Getting >10% off is pretty common. I would suggest that 90% of MSRP should be the basis for looking at any of these. Prices have gone up over the years. Paying more for a new one than it (likely) originally sold for .... hmmm .....

Lots of variables.

Bob

Bob, thanks for posting Agreed with your two points. So far in our two months of looking at every single AI Interstate across the country. We have seen prices get reduced by multiplea of 20% and 30% before getting any notice.

It’s very strange to see 2020 and 2021 AI listed for percentages off what a new 2023/ 2024 could be purchased for.

Still learning lots here
Chris

[AlbertF]

Originally Posted by Replant

Hi all,

I was curious how the seasoned airstream vets on this forum felt about the outlook for airstreams over the next few years, particularly general thoughts on:

1. Is the market for airstreams going to continue to be strong?
2. Are resale values for newer model airstreams projected to hold?
3. Where is the resale market currently at and where's it heading post-Covid?

Also, and probably my most important question:

4. What year range of airstreams do you think offers the best value? Getting a 2020 which is essentially new at a discount, something from the early 00s, or something older that's been well maintained?

It's been about 15 years since I was first interested in purchasing an air stream, and I'm finally getting ready to pull the trigger, but I don't feel like I have a strong pulse on the new or resale market, so any and all advice is welcome!

We'll be practically using it for family travel with two young kids, and I'd prefer to stay in the 16-25 foot range if that's helpful info. Northern Canada so it'll be used a minimum of 3 seasons, dabbling into the 4th.

1. Who knows? It has softened post-COVID, just like any other recreational product, since COVID artificially induced demand because people were looking for other things to do.
2. I think there's still some room for them to drop, but that's a guess.
3. It has softened post-COVID.

The best answer is, if you want an Airstream and can afford it, start looking seriously. And if you have two growing children, you will probably want at least a 25'. Trading up is costly. The best approach is to buy one that meets your needs and is in very good condition, and to plan to hand it down to your children. As long as you get regular use out of it, you won't regret the decision.

[uncle_bob]

Originally Posted by 3OnOurWay

Bob, thanks for posting Agreed with your two points. So far in our two months of looking at every single AI Interstate across the country. We have seen prices get reduced by multiplea of 20% and 30% before getting any notice.

It’s very strange to see 2020 and 2021 AI listed for percentages off what a new 2023/ 2024 could be purchased for.

Still learning lots here
Chris

Hi

Welcome to hype.

The original list prices are still out there. They aren't very hard to look up. If somebody is spending ~$200K they likely have an incentive to do some research. I would hope those hype listings against current price don't fool anybody who is seriously shopping ....

Bob

[gypsydad]

Not so sure, UB. There is litterly a "glut" of new and used RV's, including AS's...discounts as high as 25%-30% is what I am hearing across the US, especially CA. My buddy has been trying to sell his 2017 25FCQ for 3 months now, and not getting a bite he told me yesterday. He said the dealer won't give him much as they have several new units they want to move...but big used inventory also in Northern CA. I have not called around, but just look on line...things are pretty soft right now.

[swat2]

My two cents: We've had our AS almost two years and love it. We had a Lance for about five years before that. Loved it too, but it was starting to show it's age, and I always feared that the slide out would be a problem (it wasn't, just worried). We took an Airstream factory tour last month, and the tour guide said you can expect to get 30+ years from your AS compared to 10-15 years from a "white box" camper. Of course, that depends largely on how you take care of them. Before we bought our AS, I picked up a copy of C.S. (Sean) Michael's book, How to Buy an Airstream which provided some good insights. Sean is the co-host of the YouTube channel, Long Long Honeymoon.

[Frost]

Wife and I have been looking for a lightly used 19-22' Airstream for the last month.. I'm finding that privately sold and slightly used models are more expensive than trade ins on dealer lots. Dealers are just full of 2024's and maybe just don't want to spend the time and lot space on used models. People that trade in generally take less to spare themselves the pain and hassle of selling privately. Thinking that Airstream dealers are willing to sell trade ins at close to cost as opposed to car/truck dealers that put Hugh markups on used vehicles.

[3OnOurWay]

Frost, I have the feeling you and I speaking with same seller and dealer. For us Dealer said offer me price, I have no emotional connection to this rig. Take the keys go test drive it. I only make money if it leaves. For a dealer, its purely financial and to move them off the lot. A private seller, and rightly so, has an emotion connection plus lots of useful info to share what been fixed and where. Maybe I am too trusting of the private sellers, I prefer buying from one of them. Checking the big three used classified online Airstreams dealers seem to be reducing prices faster than private dealers.

[uncle_bob]

Originally Posted by gypsydad

Not so sure, UB. There is litterly a "glut" of new and used RV's, including AS's...discounts as high as 25%-30% is what I am hearing across the US, especially CA. My buddy has been trying to sell his 2017 25FCQ for 3 months now, and not getting a bite he told me yesterday. He said the dealer won't give him much as they have several new units they want to move...but big used inventory also in Northern CA. I have not called around, but just look on line...things are pretty soft right now.

Hi

A price on a 2020 van that is 30% off the MSRP of a 2023 is not telling you much. The 2020 originally had a MSRP below the 2023. Since the "real" price is normally 10% and maybe 20% off MSRP, even the MSRP isn't a great indicator.

It's a pretty good bet that AS bumped prices by 5 to 10% each year on all their products. No, it's not certain, but it is what they typically do. In 3 years any of the MSRP's may well have gone up by 15 to 30%.

Net, somebody talking about "30% off MSRP" *and* using the 2023 MSRP as a base for a 2020 van is into nonsense land. It's not that they are knocking a lot off. Indeed, they are actually selling it well above market (in any market, not just this one).

Bob

[3OnOurWay]

UB, I think we follow the logic in your post, though what I don’t see. What number / % are you suggesting that will be a starting point / realistic point for post CoVId insanity pricing in todays market based upon your experience? That’s the question we banter


We all agree, none of this is objective it’s all subjective and conjecture.
For example there’s a 2022 posted this morning for 150k The owner says I paid 250k. Following the market adjustment, can one reasonably expect that a 2020 would be 140k or 130k.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving all, thanks to all those sacrificing, working today away from family and friends. Thanks all here for sharing your experience.

[uncle_bob]

Originally Posted by 3OnOurWay

UB, I think we follow the logic in your post, though what I don’t see. What number / % are you suggesting that will be a starting point / realistic point for post CoVId insanity pricing in todays market based upon your experience? That’s the question we banter


We all agree, none of this is objective it’s all subjective and conjecture.
For example there’s a 2022 posted this morning for 150k The owner says I paid 250k. Following the market adjustment, can one reasonably expect that a 2020 would be 140k or 130k.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving all, thanks to all those sacrificing, working today away from family and friends. Thanks all here for sharing your experience.

Hi

A more realistic starting point might be:

1) The MSRP when it was new (might happen ...)

2) The typical sell price when it was new (not gonna happen ...)

3) The "typical sell price" for that make / model / year as reported by an independent authority. (if only there was a good one ....)

The bigger issue is that we seem to fall for their fake numbers. If somebody believes that a many years old van can be resold for the same MSRP as a brand new one .... that's just silly. In any sort of normal market, the value will drop year after year.

Bob

[gypsydad]

Originally Posted by 3OnOurWay

UB, I think we follow the logic in your post, though what I don’t see. What number / % are you suggesting that will be a starting point / realistic point for post CoVId insanity pricing in todays market based upon your experience? That’s the question we banter


We all agree, none of this is objective it’s all subjective and conjecture.
For example there’s a 2022 posted this morning for 150k The owner says I paid 250k. Following the market adjustment, can one reasonably expect that a 2020 would be 140k or 130k.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving all, thanks to all those sacrificing, working today away from family and friends. Thanks all here for sharing your experience.

Covid drove [pricing in a couple of ways; 1) reduced supply due to varity of factors; personal shortages which equates to market prices increasing. 2) fuel costs; this administration killed off our ability to be self sufficient while also relying on oil from outside of US. Like it or not, those factors weigh heavy in pricing on everything we do/use/eat. Now, the supply chain has been back to normal over the last year, but interest rates have driven the cost of goods up even more. We have seen this before, but never this bad. Look at how long an "add" for as used RV has been on the market? If you have cash, your in good shape. If you have to finance, not so good for buyers or sellers.

If I was looking for a new AS, I would do my homework, as outlined in several places here...call a few dealerships that are mentioned who have traditionally offered good discounts....be honest with them, and see who is wanting to get the order. Phone call is easy. With a used AS, you need to talk with the owner, who may or may not be willing to negotiate. I know of at least 3 folks who have had their rigs for sale for quite a while, even dropped the price. It's a tough market if you don't have cash.. Good luck!

[3OnOurWay]

@GypsyDad have to agre and changes are happening weekly waiting out Winter continues to see a shift in prices down. There is now a used 2022 interstate / 24GL with little use for sale at $130,000. purchased last year for over $200,00 would be my guess. Even more yelling thats down from an initial asking price iof $150,000 less than two weeks ago at $150,000 while dealer are listing same rig for $$150-170,000.
Everyone has different reasons to sell and different timetables.

Where is the bottom at ? To us not so important timing the bottom means wasted time and money when buyer accepts the offer than it means it worked for both parties. It’s getting close to purchase time we will be excited / gracious to stop using friends Roadtrek.

[uncle_bob]

Hi

One of the fun things about shopping for anything on the internet: You may have pictures, there could be a *lot* of pictures. You might talk to the seller. All might seem fine....

Drive off to see the item and *surprise* there's something seriously wrong with the item. This doesn't just apply to RV's it also applies to homes, boats, planes, and other big ticket items.

Sometimes when you see a price well below average ..... there's a reason . Is that always the case? Of course not. Somebody could be in a really serious financial pinch and need to "move the item" within a month (good luck ...). Without that drive over to look at the item, you really don't know what's what.

If there's snow in the local forecast, selling any of these items becomes more problematic. Homes sell, but not as fast. Boats, planes and RV's go into never never land. Combine that with a need to sell fast, and the price could go *way* down.

Bob

[JeffKim]

Originally Posted by 3OnOurWay

@GypsyDad have to agre and changes are happening weekly waiting out Winter continues to see a shift in prices down. There is now a used 2022 interstate / 24GL with little use for sale at $130,000. purchased last year for over $200,00 would be my guess. Even more yelling thats down from an initial asking price iof $150,000 less than two weeks ago at $150,000 while dealer are listing same rig for $$150-170,000.
Everyone has different reasons to sell and different timetables.

Where is the bottom at ? To us not so important timing the bottom means wasted time and money when buyer accepts the offer than it means it worked for both parties. It’s getting close to purchase time we will be excited / gracious to stop using friends Roadtrek.

If you're serious and it's not close by, I would request a video tour. We did that with the buyers of our dearly-departed Bambi. We tried to show any dents and defects as well as the good stuff. We didn't want the buyer to show up and find things that would negate the sale. I think it's also a good way to get some measure of the people you're buying from.