Reading the tea leaves

[Dirtbeard]

So let's switch (at risk of hijacking) the hypothetical from the purchase of a truck, or any common or high demand item to a luxury item like Airstreams.

On the one hand, supply may be down as production was cut for several weeks. On the other hand, given all the uncertainty in the rest of the economy, we can assume demand for units will also take a dive.

Given these factors it seems unlikely Airstream prices will inflate in the coming months... but will they deflate? Or will there be demand and production equilibrium and prices will remain the same?

Oh, and somewhere in this hypothetical are dealerships and salesman.

[Daquenzer]

Originally Posted by Dirtbeard

So let's switch (at risk of hijacking) the hypothetical from the purchase of a truck, or any common or high demand item to a luxury item like Airstreams.

On the one hand, supply may be down as production was cut for several weeks. On the other hand, given all the uncertainty in the rest of the economy, we can assume demand for units will also take a dive.

Given these factors it seems unlikely Airstream prices will inflate in the coming months... but will they deflate? Or will there be demand and production equilibrium and prices will remain the same?

Oh, and somewhere in this hypothetical are dealerships and salesman.

The demand for RVs is actually up!! Camping world stock is up 35%!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-profitability

Reason: One can be socially distant in an RV and travel. You can use your own bathroom, your own food, your own bed, etc. You have your own space. I completely agree. I heard one campground in Pennsylvania had 155 spots go in 3 hours.

If I was younger....I would take some money and buy a really nice piece of land and put up a campground. It has already been hard in the past to get reservations. With the boom in RVing it will only get worse. There's money to be made. Even in bad times there are opportunities.

[Daquenzer]

Here is why pumping money into the system by the government won't cause inflation: Because the total money remained the same or even went down as the economy locked up.

We are a long way off from an inflationary cycle. In fact if unemployment reaches 25% like Mnchin states we need MASSIVE government spending. If the lock down goes much longer you can bend over well ..... let's just say you will see such economic misery you won't even be able to recognize the country.

[rowiebowie]

Originally Posted by skyguyscott

No, no, no.

Youse guys got it all wrong. I gots the perfect plan, it can't fail!

It's all about the derivative curve of treasury securities and leveraging stock futures against the inevitable debt default on bond yields, but going against the obvious inversion of market value and instead investing in undervalued equities where the profit line intersects at 1.5x commodity pricing funded with stock swaps that were short sold on spec, assuming inflation stays below 3%, and at 3x commodity pricing when the inflation rate is forecast to fall between 3 and 7.5% if executed between the second and third quarters, based on historic trends, but in no case to execute after October for obvious reasons.

But, you can always use bottle deposits as a fall back if gas prices stay below $2.00/gallon for the short term and you live within 20 miles of the state line.

Should I be worried that I understood every word of your post?

[OTRA15]

So is the PPT getting active again?



The recent low-volume rally off the March 23rd low may be running out of steam, and need protecting IMO.

Peter

[PPT -- Plunge Protection Team]

[rideair]

Everyone reads the leaves a little different depending on their position. I personally am waiting before doing a few things. Below, is one mans view.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQu271PLHm8

Stay Healthy,

[franklyfrank]

Originally Posted by rowiebowie

Should I be worried that I understood every word of your post?

Only if you think you understood the context :-)

[skyguyscott]

Originally Posted by franklyfrank

Only if you think you understood the context :-)

And even then. Whether or not you are a stockbroker or a lawyer, it doesn’t matter because win or lose you still make money. The key is finding work where your assets and interests are never on the line, yet you reap all the rewards. Wall Street figured this out years ago, and our government so far has been co-opted to make sure that system never fails.

[KK4YZ]

This thread is reading like an episode of Doomsday Preppers.

My advice to the OP is to purchase a new truck and Airstream, both with custom exteriors in flat camo. Then stock up on guns & ammo and hit the road.

Oh, I almost forgot to mention the cash and burner phones....

[Prettygood]

Originally Posted by KK4YZ

This thread is reading like an episode of Doomsday Preppers.



My advice to the OP is to purchase a new truck and Airstream, both with custom exteriors in flat camo. Then stock up on guns & ammo and hit the road.



Oh, I almost forgot to mention the cash and burner phones....

Suggesting that an economic/societal doomsday isn’t a more real possibility at this moment than anytime in the last 5 decades is concerning. I’m not saying very likely, but just not astronomically small possibility. Wake up to the fact that this is a deadly serious moment, and not due to the virus’s mortality risk.

[KK4YZ]

Originally Posted by Prettygood

Suggesting that an economic/societal doomsday isn’t a more real possibility at this moment than anytime in the last 5 decades is concerning. I’m not saying very likely, but just not astronomically small possibility. Wake up to the fact that this is a deadly serious moment, and not due to the virus’s mortality risk.

I don’t disagree with you at all. I was just trying to inject a little humor into the discussion. Peace 😎

[skyguyscott]

Originally Posted by Prettygood

Suggesting that an economic/societal doomsday isn’t a more real possibility at this moment than anytime in the last 5 decades is concerning. I’m not saying very likely, but just not astronomically small possibility. Wake up to the fact that this is a deadly serious moment, and not due to the virus’s mortality risk.

I dunno, the latter half of the 1960s and early 70s evidenced far, far more social unrest than today. Consider that we were fully engaged in an unpopular war, a president had been assassinated, civil rights activists were on the march and being murdered, along with a popular presidential candidate; another president was compiling an "enemies list," covering up a botched election surveillance scandal, ordering a massive bombing campaign against a country with which we were not at war, and the military was falsely promising that we were winning against an intractable and determined foe, inflating metrics of success, and sowing the seeds of public distrust in all government, all while we were deep in a "Cold War" against an array of nuclear-armed communists who had publicly declared that they would "bury" us. Long-simmering racial injustice, political disenfranchisement and poverty flared up across the country and litterally set city after city on fire, burning and hollowing out their urban cores. And then there were the divisive struggles of "Women's Liberation," the "Sexual Revolution", "Gay Lib" and the perennial pestilence of "Sex, Drugs, and Rock-n-Roll" were ruining our nation's youth. And those are just the highlights.

Anyone alive and cognizant of the times at the time will well-remember those years. This isn't then. We somehow survived with our society more or less intact.

What this has to do with financing an RV purchase I have long lost track of.

[rmkrum]

Yup. Lived it, remember it well, threw away the Tee-shirt years ago. Survived the experience. Enough said...

[Boxite]

Phil Gramm is/was an Economist. Phil’s wife Wendy was chief accountant for Enron.

Alan Greenspan was an Economist.

Arthur Andersen was an Economist.

What does that tell you about trusting the wisdom of economists?

Do your own research and don’t forget your history.

You can’t eat gold or silver or aluminum. The only real wealth is real estate. If you have the right real estate you can camp on it, raise food on it, isolate from others on it, hunt/gather food on it, live on it. Land appreciates.

New TV’s and RV’s depreciate starting immediately. (And if there’s really an economy that tanks.... it’ll all be in foreclosure and cheap soon for those that have cash.).

Doh.

[Belbein]

Boxite: I'm not sure I understand your point about the aforementioned authorities. Are you saying we should trust Phil Gramm, Wendy Gramm, etc., or should not?


In any case, what I find economists are "good for" is NOT prognostication. That's a media-driven twist. What they are is students of how practical economics work. So they should be relied on like a physicist: to identify what the factors are.


As for applying the factors ... that's on you and me. (And since you're a Hill Country Texan, I know I can rely on you. I'm going to tell my wife that my economic advisor advised me--I mean that hypothetical person--to buy a new truck.)

[KK4YZ]

Originally Posted by Belbein

Boxite: I'm going to tell my wife that my economic advisor advised me--I mean that hypothetical person--to buy a new truck.)

Go for it 👍

[OTRA15]

Originally Posted by skyguyscott

. . .
. . . the latter half of the 1960s and early 70s . . .
. . .
Anyone alive and cognizant of the times at the time will well-remember those years. . . .
. . .

Although it is said . . . by some . . . that if you remember those times . . . you weren't really there!

[Prettygood]

Originally Posted by KK4YZ

I don’t disagree with you at all. I was just trying to inject a little humor into the discussion. Peace [emoji41]

Sorry! Often the nuance is missed in text that is clear in voice. Stay safe and let’s hope none of this craziness lasts

[AKmtnpilot]

Go for it. You only go around once. And you can always give it back.

[KK4YZ]

Originally Posted by Prettygood

Sorry! Often the nuance is missed in text that is clear in voice. Stay safe and let’s hope none of this craziness lasts

No problem! I should have used a smiley emoji in my original comment. A sense of humor helps a little getting through these crazy times.

Stay safe,

Jim