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Old 08-04-2020, 09:10 PM   #1
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Glut in two years?

With Airstream posting record sales for May, June, July, and probably August I'm wondering if in about two years we'll see a huge glut of Airstreams for sale.



Thoughts?
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Old 08-04-2020, 09:23 PM   #2
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Think there will be a glut. Demand and supply: most factories almost always produce more than market can absorb.
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Old 08-04-2020, 09:24 PM   #3
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There’s plenty of threads on this. So yes. Everyone buying an RV this year for 50k plus did so with no thought or planning. It will take precisely two years for them to realize their mistake, suffer financial misfortune, therefore being forced to sell their units for rock bottom prices. Then all of the smart people will buy slightly used RVs at bargain prices with the cash they have been sitting on since the 2008 financial crisis that they were saving until the market hit its low.
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Old 08-04-2020, 09:27 PM   #4
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Welcome to the Forums. Interesting first post.

As crazy as 2020 has been, I am sure there are many speculators on Wall Street who would love to know what is going to happen in 2 years. I think you would need more than a crystal ball to figure it out (some demon sperm and alien DNA might help, though).

So maybe things go back to pre-pandemic "normal," and a bunch of first time RVers go back to flying and staying in hotels and sell their unused trailers. Or... Maybe these new RVers will become so enamored with the lifestyle that there will be a glut of homes on the market because there will be so many new full-timers out there.

But, let's say the first "maybe" above is what happens, and things go back to normal. I doubt if most Airstream owners make the decision to buy one of these trailers on an absolute whim, so it is more likely that there will be a glut of cheap white-box SOBs (Some Other Brand) out there.

Anyway, if you were gauging the time to buy and trying to guess when you will get a good deal, I doubt if the above is much help. The alien DNA is pretty expensive these days as well.

good luck!
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Old 08-04-2020, 09:29 PM   #5
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I hope so. I'd like to have one of the new composite floors.
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Old 08-04-2020, 11:35 PM   #6
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Welcome to these forums Grisban.

You have to want to believe that people would have thought things through a bit more than your post implies. That said, the AS I have was built in 2015 and purchased used (from my local AS dealer in FL) by me in 2016.

Not sure why the original owners bailed, but I have always felt sorry for them because their expensive "dream" hadn't panned out. Like you, the original owners of my AS were also Oregon residents.
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Old 08-05-2020, 05:08 AM   #7
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Welcome and greetings from PA!

Yes I think there will be lots of used RV's on the market in several years. At two campsites we visited recently we were parked next to people who were on their first outing. One family were having all kinds of trouble. They didn't even know how to dump their black tank. And the other family was having trouble using their awning. I was glad to help but thought this was unusual!

And there was a segment on a Sunday morning show about RV sales going off the charts. I think it is a knee jerk reaction to the current situation and will level out in the future.
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Old 08-05-2020, 05:46 AM   #8
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Conflicted on this one, it's going to go one of two ways.

First, I hope everyone buying RV's in mass right now stay with it, love it and hit the road frequently. That will spur the development of additional parks and expansions/renovations of current parks. This is good.

Secondly, the upside of people finding that they hate it is I will be able to scoop up a 2021-2022 Classic 33 that's been used one or two times for a rock bottom price.

Either way there's no downside unless you plan on selling in two years or are planning on going long on Thor Industries.
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Old 08-05-2020, 07:03 AM   #9
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I would not recommend basing a financial decision on the consensus here. That would be too much like the amateurs who attempt “market timing” with their retirement funds.
I think today’s newbies will stay or bail based on their campground experiences. Running a campground is grueling and financially risky. If the owners (and staff at the government run facilities) encounter inconsiderate, destructive campers, the camping landscape will continue to decline and no one will want to go out. That is when the “4 sale” signs will appear.
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Old 08-05-2020, 08:22 AM   #10
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Old 08-05-2020, 09:39 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by Belegedhel View Post
Welcome to the Forums. Interesting first post.

As crazy as 2020 has been, I am sure there are many speculators on Wall Street who would love to know what is going to happen in 2 years. I think you would need more than a crystal ball to figure it out (some demon sperm and alien DNA might help, though).

So maybe things go back to pre-pandemic "normal," and a bunch of first time RVers go back to flying and staying in hotels and sell their unused trailers. Or... Maybe these new RVers will become so enamored with the lifestyle that there will be a glut of homes on the market because there will be so many new full-timers out there.

But, let's say the first "maybe" above is what happens, and things go back to normal. I doubt if most Airstream owners make the decision to buy one of these trailers on an absolute whim, so it is more likely that there will be a glut of cheap white-box SOBs (Some Other Brand) out there.

Anyway, if you were gauging the time to buy and trying to guess when you will get a good deal, I doubt if the above is much help. The alien DNA is pretty expensive these days as well.

good luck!

this entire post gets a standing ovation from me.
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Old 08-05-2020, 09:41 AM   #12
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Hi

The RV industry's capacity to produce trailers and MH's is pretty tightly constrained. They can ramp up a little, but not a lot. They aren't producing 2 or 5X what they were last year. They are all likely in the +10 to 20% range as far as output.

What *has* changed is that the inventory is selling much faster this year vs last year. Rather than sitting on dealer lots for 9 months (and selling at a steep discount) the inventory is moving quickly. One would *guess* it's not selling at much of a discount.

It doesn't take much of a swing in output to put any of these companies into "happy times" financially. Equally, it doesn't take a lot of swing to push them the other way. They have a lot of fixed costs / long supply chains.

Is this a good year to go buy a new RV? Probably not if you want a great deal.

When will this change? Four years seems to be the typical cycle in the RV industry. Does that apply now? Who knows ....

How many of these changes will "stick" and how many will reverse? There will always be some who make significant changes and some who don't. The real question is "do most of the people do this or do that?". It appears that the ocean voyage on giant ships may not be as popular in the future. If a good chunk of those folks swing over to RV-ing, that's a major boost ....

Only time will tell.

Bob
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Old 08-05-2020, 09:55 AM   #13
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It was once popular for a yuppie to buy a Harley. A guy I knew did well going through the Sunday Oregonian and buying barely used bikes in the Lake Oswego area as that fad faded. Note - comment is not a slam, really true. My *guess* (worth every cent it cost to read Perhaps sales of RVs over a ten year period will look fairly normal with a bubble rise in 2020? Some of us are going to phase out over the next few years and some percentage of the new will love it. Some of the old SOB equipment now on the road may get replaced by gently used Airstreams over the years ahead. For those selling SOB there might be competition from the two/three year old AS coming back on the market? Whatever happens I hope we have a neighbor like Hans in PA. Being new at something and getting a little help makes the best memories, and offers good friendship opportunities. Not a bad subject to ponder over a cup of coffee. Thanks for posting.
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Old 08-05-2020, 10:00 AM   #14
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Uncle Bob does a great job laying out terrain ahead. It appears to be shrouded in fog and darkness, could be smooth, could be treacherous.
I suspect an Airstream salesman is in a time of great feasting with no clue what could happen tomorrow.
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Old 08-05-2020, 10:02 AM   #15
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There was a story in the Atlanta news about a supervisory doctor who was working overtime at Saint Josephs Hospital in Atlanta. After the first few weeks of the Covid crisis, the hospital closed to visitors and had large empty parking lots. The doctor had an Airstream Classic in storage at the Atlanta Airstream Dealer. He had them deliver it to the hospital along with generators and his wife brought food and supplies so he could stay onsite on call. The other doctors were so impressed that within a month, the Atlanta dealer had sold his entire inventory with orders backlogged.

While these units are serving an important mission for the health care industry, I am sure almost all will be for sale as soon as the warranty expires. Just another example of supply and demand.
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Old 08-05-2020, 10:26 AM   #16
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Similar to Harleys in two months

With the Harley Davidson rally in Sturgis, SD this weekend thereís expected to be a glut of used Harleys for sale in two to three months as there owners will be struggling to pay for the medical care they will be requiring due to the Coronavirus they contracted at the rally. Should see some really sweet deals.
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Old 08-05-2020, 10:41 AM   #17
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Uncle Bob makes a good point that number of units produced probably is not much higher than normal. Airstream was selling as many as they could make before Covid. What 'might' have changed is the buyer profile--not just buyers who already wanted to get in to rv'ing, but a greater mix of buyers who did so as a reaction to the lack of travel options, and might decide to bail when travel returns to normal, and/or they realize rv'ing is not for them.

Time will tell but my gut tells me I can upgrade from a 23 to a 25 for a pretty good deal in a couple years. But then again, in March I though THOR stock would be the worst investment ever, and it's been a triple. Someone buying a trailer now could have bought THOR instead, bought their trailer now, and basically get a free Airstream plus cash left over even after capital gains taxes.

So it turns out I'm not always right lol.
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Old 08-05-2020, 10:53 AM   #18
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Right now, someone somewhere has overloaded drawers with pots, pans, and dishes, and they are driving along a mountainous road with twists and turns and inclines and declines. They bought a gas RV or their tow vehicle isnít designed for the load. Engines are howling, drawers are flying open, and the driver isnít avoiding potholes. The kid is crying. In a short while, they will arrive at a capacity-plus campground where everyone has a fire pit, and the smoke is blowing into their eyes, their noses, and their RV. They didnít get a foam topper, and the bed is hard. The AC makes too much noise, and the kid didnít get to watch TV and is now permanently traumatized. Night falls and the only sounds to be heard are the eight couples who have circled the wagons and are having a Covid party. Their campsite, in-between the train tracks, the highway, and the nuclear power plant is pretty quiet except for the Jake-braking truckers. Weather reports indicate clear skies for the weekend but for a few sporadic thunderstorms. Morning comes early, and while dad is splattering bacon grease on the stove, mom is washing the previous eveningís smoke out of her hair. The shampoo is almost rinsed out when cold water begins to flow from the shower head. No problem, this is camping, and roughing it is the norm. As good fortune would have it, mom is able to finish rinsing the remaining flattening treatment out of her curls with some bottled water in the sink. She sits and plugs in her hair dryer. Click, pop. The tech at the factory set his torque-screwdriver too low and the plugs are blowing fuses. As dad is desperately trying to solve the electrical mystery, they hear a spattering of rain drops. The spatter turns to a drumroll. Fortunately, for our intrepid campers, the skies clear after only a shortened biblical deluge. They step out into the mud and begin to survey the situation. They walk down to the kayak rental house where all the canoos, kayaks, and paddle boards are reserved in advance. The mosquitos aren't too bad if you are enveloped in smoke or are nowhere near trees or trails. They return to their RV and try to avoid the mud. Unwittingly, mom has stepped in dog poop leftover from the courteous last RVír. As we leave this scene and think toward the future, one camper asks: will there be a few RVís at good prices? Maybe.
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Old 08-05-2020, 10:59 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by Skip Chell View Post
With the Harley Davidson rally in Sturgis, SD this weekend thereís expected to be a glut of used Harleys for sale in two to three months as there owners will be struggling to pay for the medical care they will be requiring due to the Coronavirus they contracted at the rally. Should see some really sweet deals.
dont forget ballon festival in october
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Old 08-05-2020, 11:09 AM   #20
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OK,
I am sure I will fumble this a bit and may get me thrown of this site but here goes.
Skip, you may have intended that to be funny, but it really made me think. I have seen many threads closed for people speaking their minds if it may downplay the virus and promote living your life but it seems fine for someone to invoke fear and panic. How about a little balance. Besides this was a thread about RV sales and what may happen when some new owners figure out that keeping up and rv may be more than they thought and sell them a year or two. I know of one couple near us that bought a SOB for a two week vacation last month and it is already for sale. When I asked him why he was selling so soon he said wow, it was way more work than he thought it would be.
Folks, take reasonable precautions and yes try to avoid crowds but do go live your life, do something positive for yourself and others!
OK off my soap box.
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