Glut in two years?

[TravisH]

Hi,

As stated ...who knows?

But look..this "lock down" has been going on for almost 6 months! MANY family plans have been altered or summers cancelled. One way out is the RV and of course there's the rush to buy.

"Normal" infers...well...normal! Motels, planes etc...There's some trade shows I have to attend in February and I'm already backing out and adopting other buying options.

Sure, I imagine there will be many who over extended financially and had bad luck RV'ing and just want out but I'm sure we'll be welcoming many successful lifetime RV'ers to our ranks.

Also Airstreams don't lose too much value! I sold a used Sport with issues for $46K. Cash; in one day last year! Paid $53K...Dealer had one for $47K....

I would not expect a buyers market on a wide scale. Sure isolated local sales but I seriously doubt we'll be seeing lots of of deeply discounted AS.

[Chuck H]

My take on this is that Airstream's quality control in 2020 has probably fallen far lower that it was in 2009 when we bought our 25' FB Flying Cloud. The brake wires weren't crimped on well and easily pulled out of the slide-on contacts at the brake drums, the front window leaked for five years until I glued it shut and about 30 other QC problems surfaced - it took me five years to file down all of the sharp edges, replace the failed microwave and air conditioner, fix the front skin cracks just over both frame members myself (after a dealer installed pop-riveted replacement of the front skin below the window), etc.


I sent Airstream a four-page, detailed list of all of the problems and they sent me an Airstream coffee-table book and a p***-poor semi-apology!


Here's a QC test for Airstream owners: Lift up the plastic caps on a few of the screw-covers on the opening window hardware. They leak and many of the screws you see will be badly corroded if your trailer is a few years old and stored outside. Airstream still refuses to pack in some silicone jelly to prevent such corrosion. I told them about it in 2012.



If QC was that bad in 2009 with sales pretty slow, it must be just about non-existent this summer, when the dealers can't keep them on their lots because of demand.


So, yes, there may well be a glut of near-new Airstreams for sale in 2023, but they will be built in a hurry and "fit and finish" will be awful. Don't buy one! Get a 2015 model from a picky type like me instead.

[uncle_bob]

Hi

It's not just the factories cashing in right now. The dealers *have* to be doing quite well right now. I can't imagine there are a lot of "20% off MSRP" sales being done on new trailers at the moment. I'd bet at least half a bottle of warm beer that it's closer to MSRP + our "great deal" $4,000 service plan + 4,000 in odd ill defined charges .....

This isn't necessarily a bad thing (unless you are the buyer). Having dealers with enough money to improve their parts inventory or service area is a good thing for all of us. A dealer that's just barely staying in business is *not* the one you ever want to deal with ....

Bob

[Gibson3798]

I suspect if there’s a glut of campers on the market later on they will have words like: Cougar, Grizzly, Vortex, and Montana emblazoned on the front, they won’t be Airstreams.

[panamerican]

Here is an article I read on CNN this morning. A bit toward the bottom Bob Wheeler (Airstream Pres and CEO) is quoted as saying this:


"We have enough demand right now to carry us through for a long time,"




https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/b...-it/index.html

[Jezibels]

Originally Posted by coasttocoast

Right now, someone somewhere has overloaded drawers with pots, pans, and dishes, and they are driving along a mountainous road with twists and turns and inclines and declines. They bought a gas RV or their tow vehicle isn’t designed for the load. Engines are howling, drawers are flying open, and the driver isn’t avoiding potholes. The kid is crying. In a short while, they will arrive at a capacity-plus campground where everyone has a fire pit, and the smoke is blowing into their eyes, their noses, and their RV. They didn’t get a foam topper, and the bed is hard. The AC makes too much noise, and the kid didn’t get to watch TV and is now permanently traumatized. Night falls and the only sounds to be heard are the eight couples who have circled the wagons and are having a Covid party. Their campsite, in-between the train tracks, the highway, and the nuclear power plant is pretty quiet except for the Jake-braking truckers. Weather reports indicate clear skies for the weekend but for a few sporadic thunderstorms. Morning comes early, and while dad is splattering bacon grease on the stove, mom is washing the previous evening’s smoke out of her hair. The shampoo is almost rinsed out when cold water begins to flow from the shower head. No problem, this is camping, and roughing it is the norm. As good fortune would have it, mom is able to finish rinsing the remaining flattening treatment out of her curls with some bottled water in the sink. She sits and plugs in her hair dryer. Click, pop. The tech at the factory set his torque-screwdriver too low and the plugs are blowing fuses. As dad is desperately trying to solve the electrical mystery, they hear a spattering of rain drops. The spatter turns to a drumroll. Fortunately, for our intrepid campers, the skies clear after only a shortened biblical deluge. They step out into the mud and begin to survey the situation. They walk down to the kayak rental house where all the canoos, kayaks, and paddle boards are reserved in advance. The mosquitos aren't too bad if you are enveloped in smoke or are nowhere near trees or trails. They return to their RV and try to avoid the mud. Unwittingly, mom has stepped in dog poop leftover from the courteous last RV’r. As we leave this scene and think toward the future, one camper asks: will there be a few RV’s at good prices? Maybe.

Coasttocoast, ^^^^ this is camping and a true camper keeps coming back for more of this fun! We talk about it all the way home, at work we dream about it and anxiously await the next trip out, don't we!

[captainkirk]

Originally Posted by coasttocoast

Right now, someone somewhere has overloaded drawers with pots, pans, and dishes, and they are driving along a mountainous road with twists and turns and inclines and declines. They bought a gas RV or their tow vehicle isn’t designed for the load. Engines are howling, drawers are flying open, and the driver isn’t avoiding potholes. The kid is crying. In a short while, they will arrive at a capacity-plus campground where everyone has a fire pit, and the smoke is blowing into their eyes, their noses, and their RV. They didn’t get a foam topper, and the bed is hard. The AC makes too much noise, and the kid didn’t get to watch TV and is now permanently traumatized. Night falls and the only sounds to be heard are the eight couples who have circled the wagons and are having a Covid party. Their campsite, in-between the train tracks, the highway, and the nuclear power plant is pretty quiet except for the Jake-braking truckers. Weather reports indicate clear skies for the weekend but for a few sporadic thunderstorms. Morning comes early, and while dad is splattering bacon grease on the stove, mom is washing the previous evening’s smoke out of her hair. The shampoo is almost rinsed out when cold water begins to flow from the shower head. No problem, this is camping, and roughing it is the norm. As good fortune would have it, mom is able to finish rinsing the remaining flattening treatment out of her curls with some bottled water in the sink. She sits and plugs in her hair dryer. Click, pop. The tech at the factory set his torque-screwdriver too low and the plugs are blowing fuses. As dad is desperately trying to solve the electrical mystery, they hear a spattering of rain drops. The spatter turns to a drumroll. Fortunately, for our intrepid campers, the skies clear after only a shortened biblical deluge. They step out into the mud and begin to survey the situation. They walk down to the kayak rental house where all the canoos, kayaks, and paddle boards are reserved in advance. The mosquitos aren't too bad if you are enveloped in smoke or are nowhere near trees or trails. They return to their RV and try to avoid the mud. Unwittingly, mom has stepped in dog poop leftover from the courteous last RV’r. As we leave this scene and think toward the future, one camper asks: will there be a few RV’s at good prices? Maybe.

Many thanks this saved me some time......This guy actually camps and this is the hard reality of it all.
Now we will hear from the "life is great" new buyers saying he's just a jaded old man camping is wonderful....having just sold their barely used Hardley Ableson Custom FXDLSTLMNOP and bought a Brand Spanking new Airstream and their getting ready to hit the road for the cross country trip of a lifetime. Yellowstone here we come....there will be singing and dancing and bright skies love is in the air and the good fairies have surrounded the trailer as the trail of flower petals part in their wake.
Then you wake up!

[sequoyah101]

Boy! Did you nail it or what? Real or contrived the fear of the chicom flu has really warped consumption and I hope it is just an anomaly that will go away with things resetting to the norm sooner than later.


I expect the same sell-off in a couple of years of the fleet of boats, motorcycles and various RVs and AIRPLANES flying off the shelves this year. I expect a lot of buyer's regret that will take a couple of years to rationalize and accept before the sales start. Ditto for things like used computers and wood working tools. Used iMacs have nearly doubled in price since last Fall. It is a seller's market right now for many things.


My Son is something of a General Aviation expert and has been looking for another tail dragger. Airplanes with serious problems are being quickly sold out from under him at the asking price sight unseen by the buyers. There will be many many regrets on these and I hope they don't become hangar queens doomed to destruction by time and mice.


Where is all the money coming from? I know banks are loaning people money on the airplanes I mentioned and I guess the same for the RVs? Don't know, I have not borrowed money in nearly 30 years for anything. Is this spawned by people who have cabin fever deciding to eat drink and be merry for tomorrow we die? Our neighbors have worked very little since April and seem to be on permanent vacaiton and bought a huge new ski boat. We call it the Covidcation around here.

[sequoyah101]

I know this is blasphemy to some. OK.


Ours is a 2008 and I remodeled it extensively taking out the single bed and building an aluminum skeleton wood clad set of bunks, headboard and then much the same for the front dining area and couch.


What I found in all my disassembly and fixing is that Airstream quality, attention to detail and great design ARE NOT at all. Wally was a great salesman of a product that leaves much to be desired and for the price should have a lot of improvements to be the Queen Bee you pay for. Like you, I could offer a list of problems and improvements need that would go to pages. I guess they at least balance the running gear now? Probably better than a SOB but it is like pulling an airplane around and if you ever had an airplane you know how hard it is to prevent expensive hangar rash and damage. Airplanes are fragile and expensive.


Ever shred a tire on the Airstream? Usually results in thousands of dollars repair cost. The fender wells are made of plastic and right above them are the cabinets not to mention the aluminum.

[mkcurtiss]

Actually, the huge increase in camper sales was already taking place long before the Corona crisis was ever thought of....It seems that the whole camping craze was already in full swing, and the Corona plague was the necessary impetus to motivate the fence sitters to go for it.....No doubt there will be numerous slightly used campers available in the next 2-5 years, but that would have been the case regardless......I think the biggest factor that is going to affect the future "glut" if there is one, will be a financial crisis, that is doubtless heading our way....millenials seem to embrace the idea of debt with a very cavalier attitude, which is soon to prove counter productive as we slide into another recession, as a result of all the business closures related to Corona.....

[vintageracer]

"I" think you are being generous when you say 2 years.

Think next Summer/Fall 2021. That's when used RV prices will drop like a rock. Going to be LOT'S of used Airstreams and other brands of RV's come up FOR SALE all across the USA!

That' when all the newbies and Boomer's find out they are NOT able to make time in their now once again busy schedules of life to go "Glamping". That LACK OF TIME along with the HUGE RV PAYMENTS forever, RV storage issues with their HOA and the high cost of paying for RV storage to store that RV you just had to have is when these folks will find out very quickly their new to them camping lifestyle no longers fits their reality of life.

Just have a little patience and the used RV financial massacre will soon begin!

[darcym]

Part of the scarcity of new units is likely due to supply side distribution disruption due to the pandemic. Having businesses shut down for weeks or months affects every nut, bolt, sink, washer, gasket, window, mattress, oven ... etc that has to come from somewhere else. And there does seem have been a rising demand for RVs over the last year or so because of all the boomers retiring, as well as the rise of "van life" wannabes. For AS's though, money will always be the limiting factor for some, not everyone can afford this luxury item. There will also be those who think the Nest or Basecamp is "cute" until they try to spend a week in one and get frustrated by feeling like they're sardines. The smaller units aren't for everyone.

My observation is that the asking price of all used AS has gone up considerably in the last 6 months. But the availability hasn't seemed to wane -- some folks are probably trying to trade in old units for the newest upgrades. Composite floors, back-up camera, and ducted AC are upgrades that I'm willing to pay for, in time. But surely the price rise for used is due to an increase in demand. This may also be seasonal, will prices come down in the winter? Time will tell.

I look at buying an RV the same way I've looked at buying used motorcycles. I don't have a problem buying someone else's regret and I've gotten terrific deals on lightly used one or two year old bikes. I imagine boats can be the same. These "toys" can be purchased on a whim by folks with more money than sense. There will always be people who impulse buy and either can't handle it, didn't realize the long term costs and efforts associated with it, or simply lose interest. There will be those who crash and burn too.

The Covid19 has probably fueled a lot of those impulse buyers who can no longer fly to Europe for their vacation, and who fear the hazards of hotels and motels. I get that. They may be driving consumption for a long time, but there will be many who don't do the homework or don't have patience to acquire the necessary skills. Some may learn to love it. Great for them. But there will be a large portion of them who bail in a year or two.

I've been "shopping" for more than a year. But I've got 2 years until retirement. I've been sorely tempted in the last year to buy a nearly perfect used model at a reasonable price, but I'm not quite ready. I can wait.

But if this glut of demand continues, I worry about the availability not of units but of camping space. More RVs but no more campgrounds is a recipe for disaster.

[bartzstream2]

Originally Posted by Skip Chell

With the Harley Davidson rally in Sturgis, SD this weekend there’s expected to be a glut of used Harleys for sale in two to three months as there owners will be struggling to pay for the medical care they will be requiring due to the Coronavirus they contracted at the rally. Should see some really sweet deals.

Sounds like someone is drinking the Covid Coolaid.....

[Q-man13]

Originally Posted by bartzstream2

Sounds like someone is drinking the Covid Coolaid.....

Or they are in healthcare and don't take their health advice from politicians wish casting.

[dhroberts]

Glut? Yes, when: 1) Hunan virus vaccine is distributed; and 2) recent RV purchasers either realize that RVing isn't for them or they go back to their pre-virus air travel, Airbnb, etc.

[rmkrum]

Yup. Exactly. Our family is in healthcare. We know better than politicians.

[vintageracer]

With RVIA (Recreational Vehicle Industry Association) reporting new RV deliveries from RVIA member manufacturer's at 430K units in 2017, 484K units in 2018, 406K units in 2019 and what just may be the biggest year yet in 2020.

Deliveries the last 4 years alone will be over 1.5 MM new RV units in the hands of lot's of newbie and some veteran campers.

YES these huge deliver numbers gotta make you wonder:

WHERE WILL ALL THESE NEW RV CAMPERS GOING TO GO CAMPING?

[vintageracer]

Originally Posted by rmkrum

Yup. Exactly. Our family is in healthcare. We know better than politicians.

Hard to believe the "Healthcare Professionals" know any better than the politicians or "Bubba" at the Sturgis Rally given all CONFLICTING healthcare information and flip flopping from the vaulted Dr Fauci and other so called "Healthcare Professionals"!

[rmkrum]

Meh. You can nitpick all the details and occasional gaffes as the story unfolded, or you can analyze it carefully from the point of view of many RNs and MDs on the front line.

I’ll stick to the frontline observations our family members in healthcare are making every day, and follow the appropriate precautions:

Masks
Hand washing
Avoid crowds
Social distance
Stay healthy and eat/sleep right

When push comes to shove, you’ll see me wearing a fashionable full hood PAPR system with HEPA filters on the blower that’s bouncing on my butt. I’m not afraid to display overkill in public. Laugh all you want. I’d rather stay healthy, thank you very much.

I’m sure you’d rather not be on a gurney looking up at a nurse and a bunch of doctors trying to save your life. Take care.

[NY24]

Might be more like 2~4 years; otherwise, I agree.