Glut in two years?

[Sport 16 STL]

Purchased a used 2018 sport 16 in in 2019. We were always going to buy used but we were focused on micro Minnie Winnebago. Looked at smaller AS and compared. I was blown away by the number of 1-3 year old trailers for sale. It made me pause and say am I making the right decision? I believe there are going to be many more for sale when we are 100% past the covid. Today is not a good time to buy an RV or bike. Business is too good.

[Q-man13]

I do expect dealers to have a downturn in sales. Selling to another RVer isn't the only option to get out from under the payment these days. Renting it out on RVshare or Outdoorsy or any of the other platforms weren't options back in the 2008 crash. Nor had the tiny house craze hit. Add to that, Millennials now out number the Baby Boomers which will make for a large rental audience. Then we have no idea how many new RVers stick with it but upgrade trailers.

I also think it is going to take a couple years after a vaccine before people will feel like they can go back to their previous leisure activities.

[sk3225]

Maybe- Airstream has more than doubled it's production to meet the current demand. Thor (Airstream's parent company) is up sharply.

I recently purchased a 2020 Airstream 25 FB FC and a 2020 GMC Sierra Denali 2500 Diesel. And packed my twin 12 year old boys, 9 year old daughter, wife and dog and traveled across the US this summer. The new truck performed flawlessly, and was over-kill for pulling the Airstream, but that's OK. It was very nice.

Conversely, my new Airstream lost most of its cabinet doors, the tongue jack broke the first day, rivets popped out of the ceiling inside the camper, the microwave oven nearly fell out of the cabinet, the stove hood broke the first day, and a wheel came off the trailer on the PCH in southern OR (even though I check torque everyday!)! Colonial Airstream is fixing now (great to deal with BTW). The Airstream was very comfortable, all utilities worked, it did not leak in severe rainstorms (when nearly everyone else's camper clearly did), and we were nice and cool in Moab, UT (twin AC units), and warm in the Tetons.

I plan to keep it a while once the repairs are completed. Likely 5-8 years. Good luck with your decision.

[Shiny16]

Originally Posted by coasttocoast

Right now, someone somewhere has overloaded drawers with pots, pans, and dishes, and they are driving along a mountainous road with twists and turns and inclines and declines. They bought a gas RV or their tow vehicle isn’t designed for the load. Engines are howling, drawers are flying open, and the driver isn’t avoiding potholes. The kid is crying. In a short while, they will arrive at a capacity-plus campground where everyone has a fire pit, and the smoke is blowing into their eyes, their noses, and their RV. They didn’t get a foam topper, and the bed is hard. The AC makes too much noise, and the kid didn’t get to watch TV and is now permanently traumatized. Night falls and the only sounds to be heard are the eight couples who have circled the wagons and are having a Covid party. Their campsite, in-between the train tracks, the highway, and the nuclear power plant is pretty quiet except for the Jake-braking truckers. Weather reports indicate clear skies for the weekend but for a few sporadic thunderstorms. Morning comes early, and while dad is splattering bacon grease on the stove, mom is washing the previous evening’s smoke out of her hair. The shampoo is almost rinsed out when cold water begins to flow from the shower head. No problem, this is camping, and roughing it is the norm. As good fortune would have it, mom is able to finish rinsing the remaining flattening treatment out of her curls with some bottled water in the sink. She sits and plugs in her hair dryer. Click, pop. The tech at the factory set his torque-screwdriver too low and the plugs are blowing fuses. As dad is desperately trying to solve the electrical mystery, they hear a spattering of rain drops. The spatter turns to a drumroll. Fortunately, for our intrepid campers, the skies clear after only a shortened biblical deluge. They step out into the mud and begin to survey the situation. They walk down to the kayak rental house where all the canoos, kayaks, and paddle boards are reserved in advance. The mosquitos aren't too bad if you are enveloped in smoke or are nowhere near trees or trails. They return to their RV and try to avoid the mud. Unwittingly, mom has stepped in dog poop leftover from the courteous last RV’r. As we leave this scene and think toward the future, one camper asks: will there be a few RV’s at good prices? Maybe.

I don’t get it. You left out the part about everyone else that purchased in the last 3 months all having an equally miserable time. Oh and how all the old timers are still enjoying the experience.

[Shiny16]

Originally Posted by Sport 16 STL

Purchased a used 2018 sport 16 in in 2019. We were always going to buy used but we were focused on micro Minnie Winnebago. Looked at smaller AS and compared. I was blown away by the number of 1-3 year old trailers for sale. It made me pause and say am I making the right decision? I believe there are going to be many more for sale when we are 100% past the covid. Today is not a good time to buy an RV or bike. Business is too good.

Actually business is not very good for many bike shops. I know of one long time shop very close to shutting its doors. They have demand but no product. They had a boom in the service side but now parts are hard to find. Try finding a 26 inch tube on Amazon. Most are 2 weeks out and 2 to 4 times the price.

[Shiny16]

There are too many of these threads that just kinda wreak of I’m smarter then the newbies.

[zapper]

Originally Posted by coasttocoast

Right now, someone somewhere has overloaded drawers with pots, pans, and dishes, and they are driving along a mountainous road with twists and turns and inclines and declines. They bought a gas RV or their tow vehicle isn’t designed for the load. Engines are howling, drawers are flying open, and the driver isn’t avoiding potholes. The kid is crying. In a short while, they will arrive at a capacity-plus campground where everyone has a fire pit, and the smoke is blowing into their eyes, their noses, and their RV. They didn’t get a foam topper, and the bed is hard. The AC makes too much noise, and the kid didn’t get to watch TV and is now permanently traumatized. Night falls and the only sounds to be heard are the eight couples who have circled the wagons and are having a Covid party. Their campsite, in-between the train tracks, the highway, and the nuclear power plant is pretty quiet except for the Jake-braking truckers. Weather reports indicate clear skies for the weekend but for a few sporadic thunderstorms. Morning comes early, and while dad is splattering bacon grease on the stove, mom is washing the previous evening’s smoke out of her hair. The shampoo is almost rinsed out when cold water begins to flow from the shower head. No problem, this is camping, and roughing it is the norm. As good fortune would have it, mom is able to finish rinsing the remaining flattening treatment out of her curls with some bottled water in the sink. She sits and plugs in her hair dryer. Click, pop. The tech at the factory set his torque-screwdriver too low and the plugs are blowing fuses. As dad is desperately trying to solve the electrical mystery, they hear a spattering of rain drops. The spatter turns to a drumroll. Fortunately, for our intrepid campers, the skies clear after only a shortened biblical deluge. They step out into the mud and begin to survey the situation. They walk down to the kayak rental house where all the canoos, kayaks, and paddle boards are reserved in advance. The mosquitos aren't too bad if you are enveloped in smoke or are nowhere near trees or trails. They return to their RV and try to avoid the mud. Unwittingly, mom has stepped in dog poop leftover from the courteous last RV’r. As we leave this scene and think toward the future, one camper asks: will there be a few RV’s at good prices? Maybe.

Well CoastoCoast is a downright cheery guy once you get to know him.

[n2916s]

Originally Posted by sk3225

Maybe- Airstream has more than doubled it's production to meet the current demand. Thor (Airstream's parent company) is up sharply.



I recently purchased a 2020 Airstream 25 FB FC and a 2020 GMC Sierra Denali 2500 Diesel. And packed my twin 12 year old boys, 9 year old daughter, wife and dog and traveled across the US this summer. The new truck performed flawlessly, and was over-kill for pulling the Airstream, but that's OK. It was very nice.



Conversely, my new Airstream lost most of its cabinet doors, the tongue jack broke the first day, rivets popped out of the ceiling inside the camper, the microwave oven nearly fell out of the cabinet, the stove hood broke the first day, and a wheel came off the trailer on the PCH in southern OR (even though I check torque everyday!)! Colonial Airstream is fixing now (great to deal with BTW). The Airstream was very comfortable, all utilities worked, it did not leak in severe rainstorms (when nearly everyone else's camper clearly did), and we were nice and cool in Moab, UT (twin AC units), and warm in the Tetons.



I plan to keep it a while once the repairs are completed. Likely 5-8 years. Good luck with your decision.

The cabinet doors falling off, the microwave moving and rivets popping all sound like the trailer is getting beaten up a bit by a too rigid connection to the truck. What towing gear, if any, are you using and can you dial back the weight distribution or go to lighter bars?

[ProTech]

All the new RV'ers and campground are booked up more than ever. I look forward to when all the newbie's find out it's not as easy as going to a motel.

[Sport 16 STL]

Originally Posted by Shiny16

Actually business is not very good for many bike shops. I know of one long time shop very close to shutting its doors. They have demand but no product. They had a boom in the service side but now parts are hard to find. Try finding a 26 inch tube on Amazon. Most are 2 weeks out and 2 to 4 times the price.

I have several friends that own bike shops. One has doubled his business year to date, the others are 3-4 times last year. Yes, there are serious supply chain issues and they will not be able to sustain those numbers without more inventory. We are also probably past the peak of new customers wanting bikes. Having the right suppliers and relationships allow you to double revenue. Sorry to derail the thread.

[Duramax3oh]

Originally Posted by Shiny16

There’s plenty of threads on this. So yes. Everyone buying an RV this year for 50k plus did so with no thought or planning. It will take precisely two years for them to realize their mistake, suffer financial misfortune, therefore being forced to sell their units for rock bottom prices. Then all of the smart people will buy slightly used RVs at bargain prices with the cash they have been sitting on since the 2008 financial crisis that they were saving until the market hit its low.

I think there's quite a bit of truth to (part) of this post... come two years roughly there will be "many" of the new buyers that determine they didn't use their trailer as much as they thought they would, don't think they will use it like they intended, are tired of the maintenance, upkeep, storage costs, insurance, and likely loan payments.

With that said, those of us that did purchase this year for 50k plus and did so with FULL thought and planning realized that we wanted the trailer now and not to sit around waiting for a potential "good deal" in 2 years. Heck that might be an opportunity to upgrade to a nicer, barely used, larger trailer

[moosetags]

Originally Posted by ProTech

All the new RV'ers and campground are booked up more than ever. I look forward to when all the newbie's find out it's not as easy as going to a motel.

Some will take to the RV lifestyle, others will not. RVing does involve a bit of physical labor. I'm sure that many of the new Covid RVers will return to the more traditional ways of recreation when the crisis has subsided.

Brian

[Shiny16]

Originally Posted by Sport 16 STL

I have several friends that own bike shops. One has doubled his business year to date, the others are 3-4 times last year. Yes, there are serious supply chain issues and they will not be able to sustain those numbers without more inventory. We are also probably past the peak of new customers wanting bikes. Having the right suppliers and relationships allow you to double revenue. Sorry to derail the thread.

I guess an 85 year old 4 generation family shop just never had the right suppliers or relationships. Or they just sold out of available product quicker then your friends.

[SeeMore]

Lightly used trailers may hit the market sooner than two years. I have an acquaintance who bought a 32' fiver and truck in late May, did three trips, and has the "package" available for sale. He loved it, she did not! As he awaits a buying customer, he has already bought a houseboat as the alternative approach to their regular summer vacations abroad.

There are folks who leap then look, or misjudge their wants and the fulfillment match. Some may figure it is more expedient and financially advantageous to bail while the market is hot than wait to sell amidst the glut and suffer the carrying costs.

[sk3225]

Thank you for your remarks. I will look into. All was set up by Airstream (heavyduty hitch with anti-sway bars). The trailer towed well. The cabinet doors came off due to screws that were stripped or missing (i.e., where never installed). Several of the doors had 5= drill holes for the 3 screws (inexperienced or new cabinet maker at Airstream). I have confidence that the group at Colonial Airstream will repair and make better than new.

[uncle_bob]

Originally Posted by Duramax3oh

I think there's quite a bit of truth to (part) of this post... come two years roughly there will be "many" of the new buyers that determine they didn't use their trailer as much as they thought they would, don't think they will use it like they intended, are tired of the maintenance, upkeep, storage costs, insurance, and likely loan payments.

With that said, those of us that did purchase this year for 50k plus and did so with FULL thought and planning realized that we wanted the trailer now and not to sit around waiting for a potential "good deal" in 2 years. Heck that might be an opportunity to upgrade to a nicer, barely used, larger trailer

Hi

There is another part to this:

A lot of people get into this with something small. They try it for a few years to see what they think. At that point, some like what they have. Some want to dump the vehicle. Some want to move up to a larger rig.

I don't see any reason to believe this dynamic will go away. There are folks who start big and move smaller, but they are a pretty tiny fraction of new buyers. The trend has always been that the smaller stuff shows up used to a greater extent than the larger stuff.

We'll see if that holds in this case.

Bob

[Safetyfirst]

I think you're right. The top brands are all selling as quickly as they can be built. One theory is that people think they can avoid public restrooms, motels/hotels, restaurants and airports by driving to their destinations in their new RV. What a surprise they'll get when they find that RVing takes commitment and is not effortless. Some will love it but others will be selling in a year or two. Any damage to their RV's likely being from lack of use. I'm tempted to sell our 2019 Classic 30 now and buy a new one when there's loads of inventory.

[Safetyfirst]

Originally Posted by Shiny16

There are too many of these threads that just kinda wreak of I’m smarter then the newbies.

Not a case of smarter. More a case of experienced. After awhile surprises are fewer and people's behavior becomes more predictable. Often, you see them struggling with the same things you once struggled with. That said, some folks forget that they were beginners once too!

[Shiny16]

Originally Posted by Safetyfirst

Not a case of smarter. More a case of experienced. After awhile surprises are fewer and people's behavior becomes more predictable. Often, you see them struggling with the same things you once struggled with. That said, some folks forget that they were beginners once too!

Yes I get that. I’m not talking about the boater on the dock laughing at the new guy ramming his new SeaRay into the bulkhead instead of lending a hand. I’m referring to the posts that seem to imply that anyone who purchased an RV in the past 3 months did so with no thought at all.

[panamerican]

Originally Posted by Safetyfirst

I'm tempted to sell our 2019 Classic 30 now and buy a new one when there's loads of inventory.

Right now you will in all likelihood get top dollar for your 2019 as will any Airstream owner. More than they would have gotten last year this time for the same rig.

The problem is, as I see it, unless you are lucky to find exactly what you want on the lot, most of the dealers are awaiting stock replenishment and I've heard dates in Dec, Jan and Feb for the 2021 model year inventory to actually catch up. Sure there are some 2020s still out there, but not all will have the composite sub-floor, which is a major selling point IMHO. Those time frames I started to see about a month ago, so orders placed today, might not materialize until late winter early spring. The factory has typically been **around** a 90 day window from order to delivered product. Best I can tell, with the COVID shutdown and the ability (way back when I used to track it) to crank out about 20 trailers a week, may put them slightly longer than that 90 days. Additionally the market is so hot that unless you have one already on deposit, you could run the risk of not having a trailer for part next season. Long shot I know, but not within the realm of impossible.

I have seriously considered doing the same thing you are considering. My main motivation is the composite sub-floor and the very high dollar value these trailers are getting right now. That new feature alone could conceivably render an Airstream a lifetime product (minus any catastrophes). I have seen some early to mid 2000 trailers that were $25k all day long shooting upward of $37k right now...and the scary thing is that they are selling!!!

As for waiting for the glut, sure there too you could get lucky, but here is the catch, many of the newbie RV buyers out there will have next to no exp trailering.....which in my book translates to fair amounts of newbie mistakes, dents, scrapes, damaged plumbing (due to lack of or improper winterizing), etc...... damages a seasoned RVer won't see.