EV comes closer......

[foobar]

Originally Posted by martin300662

Not sure what this has to do with EV replacing ICE?

In the UK we are currently paying near $12 a gallon and folks are having the stop using vehicles because they can’t afford them.

Not having access to recharge an EV will not be a reason to keep ICE, it’s a reason to not have a vehicle when all new vehicles are EV of some form.

Sorry if this thread was UK specific.

I was tackling the topic of potentially necessary infrastructure upgrades for home charging in the USA.

Hypothetically, if we outlawed ICE vehicles overnight and replaced them all with EV's, many folks can't charge them at home in the USA due to old, outdated electrical service or they live in dense cities where street parking is all that is available (if you are lucky to even have that).

Appreciate the gasoline cost comment. Just spent a couple of weeks in rural Canada where gasoline was running $7.50 - $8.75 per gallon and I was burning $200 per day on gasoline for a long distance trip.

Best of luck to you over in the UK/EU with the stranglehold that Russia has on a portion of your natural gas and oil. I hope that the price of energy moderates soon.

Also, Texas has been experiencing daily temperatures above 38C almost everyday since mid-May. Yes, that's unusual, but it has meant that electrical consumption has bumped up against the limits of electrical generation on many of the days. Add to the electrical load all of the future (careless) EV drivers that will be lazy and plug their EV in when they get home from work and the grid will go "pop" as the afternoon represents the highest possible electrical load on our grid (maximum outside temperatures, people firing up electrical ovens to cook meals, wash or dry clothes, etc).

[AKNate]

Originally Posted by foobar

There are a lot of older homes in the USA with astonishingly small electrical service capacity.



My grandparents on my father's side had a 30amp service and from the point the home first received electrical service until the home was purchased and torn down to make way for a Bank a few years ago, the electrical service was only 30amps.



For comparison, mother currently has a 60 amp service to her home.



Before 1950, 30amp service was the norm and usually only provided 120v to the home (no 240v appliances).



Between 1950 and 1965, the most common electrical service was 60amp. My Mom's house was built in the mid 1950's, has a 60amp service and only supports one 240v circuit for a clothes dryer.



Sometime in the late 1960's, the circuit breaker panel as we know and love today came onto the scene, using resettable breakers instead of fuses. The service was spec'ed at 100A minimum and new, larger wires were needed between the neighborhood transformers and the home if the home was being upgraded from 30amp or 60amp service.



Don't believe me? Here is one reference. It is easy to find others:



https://www.thespruce.com/service-pa...-1900s-1152732

I think grandfathered homes with unupgraded 30 or 60 A service are probably pretty rare nowadays. I understand most insurance companies won’t insure them anymore and you hence can’t get a mortgage on one without upgrading. I’m guessing their owners aren’t the most likely people to be buying a new EV anyway.

[foobar]

Originally Posted by AKNate

I think grandfathered homes with unupgraded 30 or 60 A service are probably pretty rare nowadays. I understand most insurance companies won’t insure them anymore and you hence can’t get a mortgage on one without upgrading. I’m guessing their owners aren’t the most likely people to be buying a new EV anyway.

You might be surprised at how many of these homes are still around. My mom's entire neighborhood mostly occupied by folks in their 70's and 80's that have been in their homes for 30-50years. There are easily several hundred homes that have not been upgraded in that one area of Central Texas alone.

Most, if not all of these homes currently have homeowners insurance policies.

I suspect that when these homes get resold after the current owners pass away, the homes electrical panels would not pass current building codes ... but ... I'm not sure that they have to ...

However, the way I understand building codes work in most states, the home only has to conform to the code that was in place at the time the home was constructed, unless significant modifications were made that would trigger the application of new codes.

At least, in Texas this is true. Example:

"You're not required to update your house as codes change unless you're doing some remodeling work, and then only the new part has to meet the new codes".

And another reference says:

"If you have an older home that doesn't meet the current laws, don't panic. Usually, older buildings are grandfathered in when the codes are updated. However, if you want to modify or replace parts of the house, you might be required to do additional work to bring any outdated aspects into compliance."

Installing a level 2 charger in a home with 30, 60, or even 100amp service would trigger the need to upgrade the electrical service.

But my point is ... there are literally millions of homes in the USA with very outdated electrical service. Rapid universal EV adoption would be expensive, if not impractical. We need to transition in some sort of gradual process.

And, of course the limited range of EV's when towing ... that's another challenge. A 100KW-hr battery pack has the energy equivalent of about 3 gallons of gasoline. I doubt anyone that wants to tow an airstream would get excited by the range of an ICE vehicle with a 3-4 gallon gasoline tank

It's going to be a while before we get an order of magnitude (e.g. 10x) improvement in battery energy density that is needed before it becomes practical to replace the everyday homeowners tow vehicle with an EV based tow vehicle.

[LNBright]

If I had an older house (my house is 50 years old, relatively ’modern’ compared to many houses here), and if my existing service was functioning-albeit-dated, and I wanted an EV, instead of trying to upgrade the whole house, I believe I’d consider adding a second service to a garage/carport to support the EV….

[richard5933]

Originally Posted by martin300662

Not sure what this has to do with EV replacing ICE?

In the UK we are currently paying near $12 a gallon and folks are having the stop using vehicles because they can’t afford them.

Not having access to recharge an EV will not be a reason to keep ICE, it’s a reason to not have a vehicle when all new vehicles are EV of some form.

I think the point of mentioning that many homes still only have 60 amp (or smaller) service is to point out that not all homes have capacity to spare to charge an EV. For me, this doesn't mean that EVs won't replace ICE vehicles, it simply emphasizes that the solution to charging all the new EVs can't just be to hope that most people charge at home.

There was a good article this week pointing out how many millions of people in the US couldn't charge at home even if they wanted to. Most are in communities where on-street parking is the norm, or they live in multifamily housing communities where parking is done in communal lots.

I've thought for a long time that to make EVs work well enough to take over the bulk of the nation's fleet, there will have to be reliable & quick recharge methods for all the people who will be driving them, not just the ones fortunate enough to charge at home.

[jcl]

I understand and accept that there are homes with 30 amp panels. It is just such a contrast to our 17 year old condo with a 200 amp panel, and even with that we are on district hot water and district heat, so have no HVAC loads beyond a low power fan in each heat pump.

Our EV charging is on a separate service because the meter wasn't located conveniently.

Our EV charging system upgrade went live today, we we can now monitor charging from a web page, separate from our smart meter monitoring for house loads.

[jcl]

Originally Posted by foobar

And, of course the limited range of EV's when towing ... that's another challenge. A 100KW-hr battery pack has the energy equivalent of about 3 gallons of gasoline. I doubt anyone that wants to tow an airstream would get excited by the range of an ICE vehicle with a 3-4 gallon gasoline tank

It's going to be a while before we get an order of magnitude (e.g. 10x) improvement in battery energy density that is needed before it becomes practical to replace the everyday homeowners tow vehicle with an EV based tow vehicle.

I haven't checked the 3 gallon equivalent calculation, but have no reason to doubt it. Our 65 kWh battery pack would then be the equivalent of two gallons of gasoline. Here is why I think that doesn't matter. It comes down to energy storage being relevant in the context of consumption rate.

We don't buy energy with a focus on kWh, we focus on what it can do for us. Our 65 kWh battery pack will take us 500 km (300 miles). So, that is like getting 150 mpg. A two gallon fuel capacity would be an issue because of the 10 or 20 mpg ICE figures that we have become accustomed to.

Our 300 mile EV range has been shown to be reduced by 50% when towing a large Airstream, so 150 miles. Now we are getting 75 mpg equivalent.

We are still a long way from full days towing without recharging. But I think the tipping point will be a doubling, not 10x. If we could go 250 miles towing, charge, then another 250 miles, we would be happy. That would be a good day. Especially if we were doing it at 75 mpg equivalent. And I don't think the range is the sole issue; it has to be considered alongside charging time.

We need either:

i) batteries with twice the energy density, and also manufacturers willing to build vehicles with 1000 km range when not towing, and with the capability of towing, or
ii) faster recharging, essentially twice as fast, and sufficient infrastructure so they aren't too far apart, or
iii) a trailer that addresses these issues with its own design solution, involving on board batteries for those times one is towing. That saves carrying those heavy batteries around the rest of the (non towing) time, or
iv) a combination of the above.

I suggest that is closer than we think.

[LNBright]

Yeah, I think I can agree with that…. That if I could get, well, let’s say 300 miles while towing before needing to charge, that I could recharge and hit the road again in, say, 15 minutes or so, and there was a reasonable number of charging stations in most directions, my interest goes from academic/ peanut gallery, to more seriously considering actually purchasing one.

I still have, concerns, over various issues, that I’d like to see more progress on…. I have a concern about response to wrecks being able to deal with potential fires, I have a concern with getting service and repairs for a Tesla or a Rivian… (even once GM has products out on the road en masse, I still don’t have a high level of confidence that parts would be readily available and I could get back on the road in a day or so, that it could be weeks, a month of more, waiting on a part). I expect the interstates will have a reasonable amount of chargers before long, but routes away from the interstate system, may lead us to having to strike off areas we’d like to visit, because of a lack of having chargers, only gas stations available (part of the reason I really liked the idea of a hybrid instead of a BEV, but, it appears that manufacturers have decided to bypass hybrids and go directly to BEVs).

It’s coming, though….

[jcl]

Originally Posted by LNBright

Yeah, I think I can agree with that…. That if I could get, well, let’s say 300 miles while towing before needing to charge, that I could recharge and hit the road again in, say, 15 minutes or so, and there was a reasonable number of charging stations in most directions, my interest goes from academic/ peanut gallery, to more seriously considering actually purchasing one.

I still have, concerns, over various issues, that I’d like to see more progress on…. I have a concern about response to wrecks being able to deal with potential fires, I have a concern with getting service and repairs for a Tesla or a Rivian… (even once GM has products out on the road en masse, I still don’t have a high level of confidence that parts would be readily available and I could get back on the road in a day or so, that it could be weeks, a month of more, waiting on a part). I expect the interstates will have a reasonable amount of chargers before long, but routes away from the interstate system, may lead us to having to strike off areas we’d like to visit, because of a lack of having chargers, only gas stations available (part of the reason I really liked the idea of a hybrid instead of a BEV, but, it appears that manufacturers have decided to bypass hybrids and go directly to BEVs).

It’s coming, though….

WIth respect to vehicle fires, training for emergency response technicians is important, but the good news is that the risk of fire is far lower.

A recent study conducted by AutoInsuranceEZ using data from the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) showed that electric cars in the US caught fire at a rate of 25.1 per 100,000 sales compared to 1,530 for ICE vehicles and 3,475 for hybrids.

https://www.idtechex.com/en/research...blematic/25749

I wondered about Tesla service when we purchased ours. I worked for years in a dealership, and it was what I was accustomed to. So far the Tesla service experience, both at their local service centre and mobile, has exceeded my recent dealership experiences with other brands. More importantly, I think that traditional ICE dealers won’t be a significant part of the service network for those brands. That puts the viability of many of those traditional dealerships in question.

We have bylaws being brought in here that will require all gas stations to also offer EV charging, or face much higher business licence fees. That one surprised me.

[martin300662]

Originally Posted by foobar

Sorry if this thread was UK specific.

I was tackling the topic of potentially necessary infrastructure upgrades for home charging in the USA.

Hypothetically, if we outlawed ICE vehicles overnight and replaced them all with EV's, many folks can't charge them at home in the USA due to old, outdated electrical service or they live in dense cities where street parking is all that is available (if you are lucky to even have that).

Appreciate the gasoline cost comment. Just spent a couple of weeks in rural Canada where gasoline was running $7.50 - $8.75 per gallon and I was burning $200 per day on gasoline for a long distance trip.

Best of luck to you over in the UK/EU with the stranglehold that Russia has on a portion of your natural gas and oil. I hope that the price of energy moderates soon.

Also, Texas has been experiencing daily temperatures above 38C almost everyday since mid-May. Yes, that's unusual, but it has meant that electrical consumption has bumped up against the limits of electrical generation on many of the days. Add to the electrical load all of the future (careless) EV drivers that will be lazy and plug their EV in when they get home from work and the grid will go "pop" as the afternoon represents the highest possible electrical load on our grid (maximum outside temperatures, people firing up electrical ovens to cook meals, wash or dry clothes, etc).

This thread is certainly not UK/EU centric, it represents a global position on the following,

1) The future availability of ICE vehicles - once they become niche the price will ramp and they will not be an option for normal folk

2) There is a future where the only fuel ICE fuel that is available is synthetic and anyone that thinks a synthetic fuel can ever be manufactured at the same price as simply fractionating a resource that you pull out of the ground lives in cloud cuckoo land

ICE will always be available if you have pockets deep enough to pay for it.

IMHO the move away from ICE will not be driven by legislation, but by economics. Maybe the effect will be slower in the insulated US market, but how many of the car manufacturers now focus only on the US market? They all use modular vehicle platforms designed for the global market. Do you think the price of a vehicle is going to be the same when it is only built for the US market?

[richard5933]

Originally Posted by martin300662

This thread is certainly not UK/EU centric, it represents a global position on the following,

1) The future availability of ICE vehicles - once they become niche the price will ramp and they will not be an option for normal folk

2) There is a future where the only fuel ICE fuel that is available is synthetic and anyone that thinks a synthetic fuel can ever be manufactured at the same price as simply fractionating a resource that you pull out of the ground lives in cloud cuckoo land

ICE will always be available if you have pockets deep enough to pay for it.

IMHO the move away from ICE will not be driven by legislation, but by economics. Maybe the effect will be slower in the insulated US market, but how many of the car manufacturers now focus only on the US market? They all use modular vehicle platforms designed for the global market. Do you think the price of a vehicle is going to be the same when it is only built for the US market?

How long do you think it will be before EVs are the norm and ICE vehicle are the niche market? I'm guessing that might take another 15-20 years, or more. There are still millions (and millions) of ICE vehicle in daily use, and they won't disappear overnight even if new vehicle sales transitioned to all EVs tomorrow. It will take decades unless a program is developed to buy them all back. And that can't happen until a reliable and practical alternative exists.

Same for your second premise - oil companies are not going to stop pumping/refining petroleum products for a long time. What's your timeline on when you expect only synthetic fuel to be available? I'm seeing many decades on this as well.

Not trying to say these things won't happen, just that it will take decades. This is probably about how long it will take for the infrastructure and industry buildout to ramp up to the point it needs to be for EVs (or whatever comes after them) to fully fill the market for daily use across the board.

Me, I still see the current generator of EVs as a transitional technology and not the next keeper technology. My crystal ball prediction is that in another few years an even better option will present itself and will be the one that sticks for decades and decades.

[martin300662]

Originally Posted by richard5933

How long do you think it will be before EVs are the norm and ICE vehicle are the niche market? I'm guessing that might take another 15-20 years, or more. There are still millions (and millions) of ICE vehicle in daily use, and they won't disappear overnight even if new vehicle sales transitioned to all EVs tomorrow. It will take decades unless a program is developed to buy them all back. And that can't happen until a reliable and practical alternative exists.

Same for your second premise - oil companies are not going to stop pumping/refining petroleum products for a long time. What's your timeline on when you expect only synthetic fuel to be available? I'm seeing many decades on this as well.

Not trying to say these things won't happen, just that it will take decades. This is probably about how long it will take for the infrastructure and industry buildout to ramp up to the point it needs to be for EVs (or whatever comes after them) to fully fill the market for daily use across the board.

Me, I still see the current generator of EVs as a transitional technology and not the next keeper technology. My crystal ball prediction is that in another few years an even better option will present itself and will be the one that sticks for decades and decades.

Well both 1 and 2 will be dependent on the full impact of burning fossil fuels, getting passed to the cost of said fossil fuels.

IMHO fossil fuels not get banned, just we will pay the full cost of using them, and that will make folks move to alternatives.

[LNBright]

Originally Posted by martin300662

Well both 1 and 2 will be dependent on the full impact of burning fossil fuels, getting passed to the cost of said fossil fuels.

IMHO fossil fuels not get banned, just we will pay the full cost of using them, and that will make folks move to alternatives.

But that kinda brings in an issue from another thread:

There are many markets where public transportation is readily available, you don't *have* to own a vehicle. But then there are areas like where I live, where it's almost impossible to function normally w/o a vehicle. But many homes, apartments, etc., simply aren't capable of being able to charge an EV at home. [Tangent to that, we've seen a HUGE influx of car washes being built here, driving us all nuts... but supposedly there's a demand for them, because of the number of people that live where they couldn't wash a car at home in their own driveway.]

So, you live in an apartment, or in a trailer park: you aren't someone who's just living on food stamps, you're actually getting your butt up in the morning and going to work. But in these parts, your workplace is usually about 30 minutes away (mine's 45): you can't ride a bike, you can't walk, we don't have public transportation, you have to drive, but a trailer park/ old rental house/ older apartment building/ etc., doesn't have the infrastructure for charging EVs. These people couldn't afford a 'fossil fuel tax' anymore than they could afford to buy a Rivian.

This is an Airstream group: we can banter about optimal TVs and what's the best solar panels available and whether or not we're gonna make it to the next International rally. But MOST of the folks in this country don't have those luxuries. Even if EVs eventually get down in price to be on-par w/ a ICE vehicle, and even if electricity prices remain such that energy equivalents remain favorable, until the infrastructure is upgraded, a lot of this can't happen. Yet. Eventually, sure, it will. But not as quickly as some think.

What I expect to happen, yes, it'll happen for those that can, either via their own fiscal abilities or promoted by their localities, but large swaths of this country (and perhaps most other countries?) will take much longer to catch up to being able to readily support EVs.

[martin300662]

Originally Posted by LNBright

But that kinda brings in an issue from another thread:

There are many markets where public transportation is readily available, you don't *have* to own a vehicle. But then there are areas like where I live, where it's almost impossible to function normally w/o a vehicle. But many homes, apartments, etc., simply aren't capable of being able to charge an EV at home. [Tangent to that, we've seen a HUGE influx of car washes being built here, driving us all nuts... but supposedly there's a demand for them, because of the number of people that live where they couldn't wash a car at home in their own driveway.]

So, you live in an apartment, or in a trailer park: you aren't someone who's just living on food stamps, you're actually getting your butt up in the morning and going to work. But in these parts, your workplace is usually about 30 minutes away (mine's 45): you can't ride a bike, you can't walk, we don't have public transportation, you have to drive, but a trailer park/ old rental house/ older apartment building/ etc., doesn't have the infrastructure for charging EVs. These people couldn't afford a 'fossil fuel tax' anymore than they could afford to buy a Rivian.

This is an Airstream group: we can banter about optimal TVs and what's the best solar panels available and whether or not we're gonna make it to the next International rally. But MOST of the folks in this country don't have those luxuries. Even if EVs eventually get down in price to be on-par w/ a ICE vehicle, and even if electricity prices remain such that energy equivalents remain favorable, until the infrastructure is upgraded, a lot of this can't happen. Yet. Eventually, sure, it will. But not as quickly as some think.

What I expect to happen, yes, it'll happen for those that can, either via their own fiscal abilities or promoted by their localities, but large swaths of this country (and perhaps most other countries?) will take much longer to catch up to being able to readily support EVs.

Seems folks are missing that this is a thread in the classic motorhomes forum and is about EV conversions of those motorhomes or (the pipe dream) of a modern EV version of those motorhomes.

[jcl]

Originally Posted by martin300662

Well both 1 and 2 will be dependent on the full impact of burning fossil fuels, getting passed to the cost of said fossil fuels.

IMHO fossil fuels not get banned, just we will pay the full cost of using them, and that will make folks move to alternatives.

I agree with this. One discussion that has started here is about the emissions of the fossil fuel industry, a very significant contributor to GHG through the production of fuels. Simply requiring the fossil fuel industry to produce their products cleanly will add significantly to the final cost of those fuels. Add in the higher costs due to lower production volumes, and the shift away from fossil fuels will accelerate.

[LNBright]

Originally Posted by martin300662

Seems folks are missing that this is a thread in the classic motorhomes forum and is about EV conversions of those motorhomes or (the pipe dream) of a modern EV version of those motorhomes.

Happens to me ALL the time. I see a thread on the sidebar w/ an interesting title, and jump in. Never even thought that EV discussion wasn't really somehow tangent to TV's on this board.... but, yeah, it makes sense for non-trailers, too...

[realpank]

I’m excited about the prospect that the Transport industry and it’s adoption of EV will present for retrofitting an RV. I don’t need more that 300 miles on a charge, my 325 will accept a heavy array of battery and would plan to keep my Oman and gas tank as a recharging option in a pinch.
Do not love paying to run my 454, that is getting a little old and will be ready to travel far and wide within ten years.
Happy to see this discussion and see who and how the brave and creative from this group will proceed with electric.

[Boom Sounds]

Whether retrofit is viable will depend on three factors; battery tech developments vis a vis storage capacity/weight, rating of existing vehicle for adding weight, capital cost of implementation. I remain positive that it will be technically viable but possibly unaffordable

[martin300662]

Totally agree but I think a retro-fit to a classic is going to be drastic, ie a large percentage of the weight is in the chassis and so it will require a body swap into a new 'skate' rather than just a drive train swap, just to get rid of the 1ton weight of the chassis/suspension/steering.

I wonder how much the shell/frame weighs on its own?

Also do we need Lexan windows? I for one would happily change to the trailer style fixed windows with Lexan instead of glass if it saved another 500lb.

[Boom Sounds]

Originally Posted by martin300662

Totally agree but I think a retro-fit to a classic is going to be drastic, ie a large percentage of the weight is in the chassis and so it will require a body swap into a new 'skate' rather than just a drive train swap, just to get rid of the 1ton weight of the chassis/suspension/steering.

I wonder how much the shell/frame weighs on its own?

Also do we need Lexan windows? I for one would happily change to the trailer style fixed windows with Lexan instead of glass if it saved another 500lb.

You may well be right. I guess it just depends on the set up. My 250 has the higher rating 14500 chassis which gives me quite a bit of play. I'd have to do the calcs on what weight could be ditched and the weight of batteries (which will be key). I hold out some hope that new battery tech will come along sooner than one might think and that would be a game changer for a retro-fit.

Out in the real world, Rivian, Arrival and the like will manufacture lightweight EVs on skate chassis that would be far more practical. It will only be a matter of time before there is some disruption and a new player builds a cracking class C EV Motohome.

GM estimates the Hummer pickup will go up to 350 miles, but with a massive battery in a 9,200-pound beast carrying all kinds of off-roading hardware, it’s difficult to gauge just how efficient it really is. Not sure on the battery weight. This has a 24 module pack but the modules only weigh about 3lbs - that can't be right, can it?? https://www.mining.com/web/gms-ultiu...ic-range-race/

We'll see. Let's try and catch a game this year; it's been ages. COYI.