2007 WBCCI Membership totals

[05ModPod]

Silvertwinkie and DougJamie-

I hear you both I really do and very valid points. Having gone down that lane just a couple of years ago - the numbers really don't paint any sort of substantial picture. Because the demographics are so diversified - we tend to read into the number what we want to see. Possibly using the numbers as our only source of rationalizing the decline - and waving them at the people at the "sidelines" - if we can read the number I am sure the Officers can see the numbers.

While I would never deter thread conversation as it is mostly fun over the years - and I would never send people searching the forums to find an answer they seem to need right away. By vitue of the trend here at the forums. Numbers lead to questions, un-answered questions lead to self rationale which invariably leads to 'complaints' or not neccesarily complaints - not the best choice of words - more individual observations - being used as rational and justification as to why the numbers are declining.

It is like sperm to the egg - millions of potentional members out there - but only a few will join - and only one will make it to the top of the pile once a year - thus if the future IBC President is groomed in the system and has X views of the club from his or (one day HER) outlook - then you can bet hence election day that person is going to draw on their own strengths to lead the club on their point of view.

The club will change with the presidents yet to come - the people here that have many good ideas - that are not members yet - that have the fun Rallies (Fourm Rallies). One day those same people will want something to hang onto as all their friends start to dwindle - Have you ever noticed a culling of the 50's where many friends just seem to pass away - and those left have an eye opener. When that time comes for many here - then the forum rallies will need to become something more reliable to them - something they want to count on - and a shift in needs will happen.

We really just have to look outside the club - and look at the NorthAmerican demographics of the human....

Why is this forum so successful? - because the majority are of the computer age - and feel comfortable in trusting people we have never met before from ourt home - eventually we gain enough confidence and join in on a forum Rally - why? because the growing need to be with like people grabs us as we get older and our children grow - and the world around us is so filled with war! Values, safety are huge in the way we live - but we can not stop the yearning of adventure and travel in us all.....

[swebster]

While I'm not a member I do follow these threads and in my business life I spend a lot of time looking at and analyzing numbers and trends.

If I were looking at these numbers to try and understand what is happening I would want to understand more than total membership numbers. For example;

• What is the true attrition rate for members?
• What is the churn rate for new members?
• Are new memberships increasing or decreasing?
• In other words, where, exactly are the gains and losses?

Detailed numbers could tell you a lot about what is really going on with the club.

Are older members not staying in at a rate that is faster than new members joining or are new memberships simply not keeping up with the "natural" attrition rates?

I suspect everyone assumes it's new memberships to blame for the losses. Perhaps this is true. But what if newbies are holding or increasing but just at a slower rate than older members "retiring from Airstreaming". Perhaps this is simple a "right sizing" of the club as a large group at the end of it's career simply exists the ranks.

On the other side, if new memberships are holding steady or even increasing, but the churn rate for newbies is high (50% - 80%) then that can tell you a lot about the "content" of the club. Perhaps people are joining at a good rate, but for whatever reasons they are not finding what they need and moving on.

Just some food for thought.

[05ModPod]

Swebster - MOST EXCELLENT POST!

[cooperhawk]

Originally Posted by 65GT

The name change possibility gave many the ire to leave. SOBs could very well be the walking papers that didn't materialize last year. Feelings are stronger against the International Leadership now than they ever have been. TWO club crisis years in a row could be the straw...

You could look at another way. The name change was prevented and still the people walked away. You can't really blame this on deaths as most of the older folks aren't on the internet anyway. I know cause I try to get information from them for the web sites. They probably didn't even know about that name change battle.

The club is losing members that ARE on the web and are just plain quitting. Some thought the name change would help the club grow, some saw little future with a club that refuses to change with the times, and some simply got tired of the constant bickering. At any rate there seems to be no solution that is acceptable that will grow the club. Too bad. I hate to see it decline just as much as the others.

[05ModPod]

Patience my dear friends.....

It will not happen overnight - how long has this forum been up since 03??d


We landed on the Moon in 1969 - but it was many many years before that the people played around with the concept - but it took one Person and an Administration May 25th 1961 to set the GOAL for it to be done by the end of the decade - and it was.

This club right now is tossing all sorts of ideas, panics, and the like, around on the table - not to mention dealing with the Manufacturers changes that ultimately affect the club as well.

It is a matter of form a bonified PLAN with realistic Goals - simple ones, where all efforts will be placed to reach those goals. That has not happened yet - but I am hoping it will soon.

I strongly believe we are in the "decade" of change and soon we will see the leveling off and then the wheels will slowly start turning forward again for its next cycle.

[streamer23]

Originally Posted by swebster

For example;

• What is the true attrition rate for members?
• What is the churn rate for new members?
• Are new memberships increasing or decreasing?
• In other words, where, exactly are the gains and losses?

Good post.

Yes,what I have posted is only numbers and a snapshot in time of the club membership.What I hope it would do is give us an idea of the obvious trend and hopefully generate even more discussion and awareness of the situation.Sometimes that is all that is needed to get someone to dig a little deeper and ask the tougher questions.At least I hope this does.

I can answer one of your questions and of course have the numbers to back it up.

Are memberships increasing or decreasing?

Neither.

They seem to be staying in a tight range between 823 and 1131 new members yearly.These numbers cover a period from 1990-2006.

For example 1990 had 947 new members,1991 had 871 new members and more recently 2004 had 908 new members,2005 had 1042 new members and 2006 had 903 new members.
The years between 1991 and 2003 all have numbers around this range.

Again...just numbers.

[swebster]

Mike,
That is great additional information. So if new memberships are "holding steady" (on average) year over year then the next question is what is new member "churn" look like against the general attrition rates of the club. These two add up to the total losses each year.

But, even with these numbers I think we can safely say that a lot of the decreases over the years have been attrition rather than churn. Even if 100% of the new members left within a year or two, the club is still decreasing in overall size. The only place for this to come from is "existing members".

So, roughly speaking, if about 1000 members a year are joining, and we know that not all are leaving within the year, then a significant portion of the losses are coming from somewhere else and in total exceed those new memberships.

It would be interesting to plot out membership payments over time. Then we could see where people are generally falling out.

[streamer23]

Originally Posted by swebster

Mike,
That is great additional information. So if new memberships are "holding steady" (on average) year over year then the next question is what is new member "churn" look like against the general attrition rates of the club. These two add up to the total losses each year.

But, even with these numbers I think we can safely say that a lot of the decreases over the years have been attrition rather than churn. Even if 100% of the new members left within a year or two, the club is still decreasing in overall size. The only place for this to come from is "existing members".

So, roughly speaking, if about 1000 members a year are joining, and we know that not all are leaving within the year, then a significant portion of the losses are coming from somewhere else and in total exceed those new memberships.

It would be interesting to plot out membership payments over time. Then we could see where people are generally falling out.

I am in total agreement with your statements.My own gut feeling in following these numbers over the years is roughly 40-50% of new members do not renew after the FIRST year.

Non renewal numbers from the 1992-2006 years have also been in a consistant range of 1200-1500.
Putting this number together with the new member number and you get a loss of 500 members a year on average.

[Silvertwinkie]

Wow!

These last 7 or 8 posts have really done a great job at looking at it from even more angles that I had even considered. I also had no idea that new membership was that high, let alone year after year.

This is some great info and fantastic dialogue.

[LuminumTraila]

This is pretty interesting stuff, and you guys (swebster and streamer23) are pretty good at it! Maybe the WBCCI could get you some more data and appoint you official club statisticians!

Here's my contribution:

"They say 3 percent of the people use 5 to 6 percent of their brain
97 percent use 3 percent and the rest goes down the drain
I'll never know which one I am but I'll bet you my last dime
99 percent think with 3 percent 100 percent of the time

64 percent of all the world's statistics are made up right there on the spot
82.4 percent of people believe 'em whether they're accurate statistics or not
I don't know what you believe but I do know there's no doubt
I need another double shot of something 90 proof
I got too much to think about" - Todd Snider, "Statistician's Blues"

[azflycaster]

Doesn't the purchase of a new Airstream include a one year free membership in the WBCCI? If so, that would account for the large number of new members every year. The goal of the club should be to get these new members to retain that membership.

[streamer23]

Originally Posted by azflycaster

Doesn't the purchase of a new Airstream include a one year free membership in the WBCCI? If so, that would account for the large number of new members every year. The goal of the club should be to get these new members to retain that membership.

Richard,I believe that program was last run in 2002-2003.Someone correct me if I'm wrong.It generated 875 new members of which 397 did not renew the following year.

[wkerfoot]

Originally Posted by streamer23

Richard,I believe that program was last run in 2002-2003.Someone correct me if I'm wrong.It generated 875 new members of which 397 did not renew the following year.

Mike,

That renewal rate does not appear too bad compared to the earlier first renewal rate post. And some of those 478 new members might not have otherwise joined.

This program applied to anyone who first purchased an Airstream, new or old. We received one year free when we purchased our 1979 Safari in 2002, thanks to an alert membership chairman in ECR.

Bill

[swebster]

Let's make the assumption that 40% of new members don't renew in year two. If that's true then out of the 1000 members that join 400 elect not to renew. The means the club is still adding 600 members a year. At current membership levels this is a 9.16% per year increase in membership growth for year two.

But since the club is still decreasing by 370 members overall, when you add in the net new members this means that 970 of the "core" members (not newbies) are leaving.

So, now the question is; who are these 970? Are they in year two of membership or year twenty-two? Are they leaving the club within certain age groups? If so, is the general club weighted towards certain age groups? Once these groups are depleted will the losses stabilize? I doubt that all 960 are coming off the top (retiring, too old to caravan or setup, or taking that big caravan in the sky). But some portion of this attrition is due to a members inability to participate or lack of interest in the club any longer.

So where they?

If would could plot this all out, including the ages of members it could really open up the holes that members are falling through.

Like most trending I wonder if it ends up looking like a Bell Curve. Larger numbers of people not renewing at the edges. Newer working members leaving within the first five years and older members retiring out of the club.

I feel a data cube coming on. If only we had the raw data.

[AirHog]

Okay folks.......my question to ALL is what makes a good club? The people, right! Well then....for those who believe in their unit club....promote it, and make the difference.

There are so many threads on this forum about how WBCCI is dwindling, and how horrible it is. In all honesty...... we have a great unit here on the East Coast (Region 1) , due to several key members who believe in WBCCI and keeping the legend of Wally and streamin' alive. We have attracted members from Oregon, Alaska, Ct,RI, NJ & more. The reason being, when Airstream folks come to our rallies, they become hooked.

And trust me.......we have many RULE breakers and rebels in our unit which makes for an interesting club. All in all, we do want to keep the legend of Wally Byam alive!

Have fun streamin' & keep on smiling.....................


Gail

[swebster]

Bump...this was a fun post...did anyone have more to add?

[streamer23]

Originally Posted by swebster

Bump...this was a fun post...did anyone have more to add?

I don't know if there is too much more to add.That's prety much all 'the numbers' I have.I did enjoy the thread and did not see it as a negative WBCCI thread.Possibly an eye opener to a few more folks out there which in my opinion is a good thing going forward.

[LuminumTraila]

Originally Posted by streamer23

That's prety much all 'the numbers' I have.I did enjoy the thread and did not see it as a negative WBCCI thread.Possibly an eye opener to a few more folks out there which in my opinion is a good thing going forward.

I enjoyed this discussion, too! So many people in WBCCI are working in all sorts of ways to help make improvements and change in WBCCI, and keeping a finger on the pulse is just one of those ways.

Thanks for giving us these numbers and more to think about, streamer23!

-J

[2airishuman]

Originally Posted by azflycaster

Doesn't the purchase of a new Airstream include a one year free membership in the WBCCI? If so, that would account for the large number of new members every year. The goal of the club should be to get these new members to retain that membership.

this is a dealer by dealer issue now.

IF a new buyer asks for a membership, some dealers will pay for it and process it.

and while some dealerships provide great support for the local units in their buying area, many/most dealers see the wbcci as what the new/average a/s buyer sees...

this program and the 'one free year' for any new person buying a used unit, were never really supported or welcomed by the old guard or the h/q folks...

the dogma that long term membership happens at the local unit level still prevails....

yes the indirect goal should be to retain new members,

BUT the better goal is a club that is important enough, with features compelling enough that folks WANT to join and stay.

that is not the current wbcci...

cheers
2air'

[jcanavera]

Originally Posted by swebster

• What is the true attrition rate for members?
• What is the churn rate for new members?
• Are new memberships increasing or decreasing?
• In other words, where, exactly are the gains and losses?

Detailed numbers could tell you a lot about what is really going on with the club.

I suspect everyone assumes it's new memberships to blame for the losses. Perhaps this is true. On the other side, if new memberships are holding steady or even increasing, but the churn rate for newbies is high (50% - 80%) then that can tell you a lot about the "content" of the club. Perhaps people are joining at a good rate, but for whatever reasons they are not finding what they need and moving on.

Just some food for thought.

Well I dropped at year's end after 4 years in the club. Notible from our unit is that the churn from new members is high. I'm only aware of 1 or 2 members who joined in the past 4 years staying affiliated. I think it was reported that the churn rate on the free memberships that were given out a few years back by the International was 85%. Our folks were resistant to doing anything different. The lack of attendance at the two informal rallies we did last year told me where the the folks in our unit wanted to go. The problem is they are getting up in age and I'm afraid they will soon get into having to recycle officers....and based on the expectation levels I think things will either fold quickly or they will be forced to become more informal due to the lack of volunteers.

Jack