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Old 02-14-2009, 12:00 PM   #21
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2-4-6-8 Stimulate!

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Originally Posted by Denis4x4 View Post
It's pretty well documented that FDR's policies may have extended the depression and that the build up to WWII did more to create jobs then the WPA.
I think the great majority of opinion by economists and historians is that this happened:

1. The Hoover administration did very little except to establish the Reconstruction Finanance Corp. to provide a little bit of stimulus and the result was the Depression got worse. The Depression actually started in the agricultural sector not long after WW I and far more people were farmers in the 1920's than now—maybe 40+% compared to 1 or 2% now—so there was fundamental weakness for years before the stock market decline in October, 1929. Nothing was done for the ag sector in the '20's except some states enacted mortgage moratoriums* to prevent banks from taking farms. The first 3 1/2 years of the Depression were during Hoover's term.

2. In FDR's 1st term, a lot more was done to stimulate the economy (WPA and CCC are most well known to most people, but the Glass Steagal Act regulated banking and parts of the equities markets). The result was unemployment was cut in half. The stimulus wasn't enough, but, like now, there was opposition and compromise which prolonged the Depression.

3. In the beginning of FDR's 2nd term, he supported balancing the budget and removing stimulus and the result was a reversal of economic improvement and the need to re-stimulate. This revived and prolonged the Depression.

4. WWII provided a great deal of stimulus, but very inefficient stimulus since military spending has very limited stimulation—after all, a lot of it is to destroy things. Military spending produces less than a dollar for every dollar spent.

Thus being too cautious in providing stimulus did prolong the Depression. The present stimulus is, I believe, also too cautious.

The best stimulation will not only create jobs, but do things that will cause more production and national efficiency. Thus, for ex., transportation and communication improvements pay off many times because a modern economy needs both to thrive. China is pouring money into new highways and railroads, far more than we are. The stimulus has to go beyond "shovel ready" because it will be needed for several years to come—you don't turn this around in 6 or 12 months. Money should be going for planning for shovels in 2010 and 2011.

An interesting sidelight is that the tax credits and deductions to stimulate purchase of autos and trucks also apply to motorhomes under 8,500# (I might be off 500#, I read this earlier today). The information didn't seem to say trailers would be covered, but there's so much in the bill, I'm having trouble finding out everything. It seemed to only cover vehicles with engines. If so, it might benefit Thor and CW, but not Airstream except for the conversion vans.

The payments of $400/individual apparently only apply to people who are working. Social Security recipients will get a one time payment of $250. People on pensions, people relying on income from investments, people who have used up unemployment insurance payments, get nothing. So we get $250 (my young trophy wife doesn't get Social Security and we are both retired). I guess there's something for everyone to like and dislike in the bill. I'm sure hoping the stock market recovers and dividends stop being cut. I expect fellow retirees will have little reason to purchase a trailer until the markets improve significantly, although with $250 I can buy some toys for the trailer (or medication for me).

Gene

*As a long ago Latin student, I think it should be "moratoria", but such usage seems to have disappeared and no one would understand the word except fellow sufferers of all those declensions.
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Old 02-14-2009, 12:37 PM   #22
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2. In FDR's 1st term, a lot more was done to stimulate the economy (WPA and CCC are most well known to most people, but the Glass Steagal Act regulated banking and parts of the equities markets). The result was unemployment was cut in half. The stimulus wasn't enough, but, like now, there was opposition and compromise which prolonged the Depression.

The repeal of the Glass Steagal act during Clinton's watch probably did more to cause today's problems along with the Demoracts blocking oversight on Fanny and Freddy than any other factor.

There's $30 million to preserve mouse habitat in Pelosi's district, yet not single mention of lowering capital gains or corporate income tax rates. The mouse will not create jobs, a lowering of business tax rates will.

As more and more people remain in their jobs past retirement, there will be fewer jobs for new college graduates. The real crime here is the fact that there were 1100+ pages that were dumped on the legislators with no time to read the bill before voting.

There should be a requirement that all congresspersons and senators must have spent at least five years in the private sector and understand what it takes to make a payroll every week.

The tax credit for purchasing a new car or truck was dropped and there was a lack of info on the RV credit in the San Diego Union.
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Old 02-14-2009, 01:25 PM   #23
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Just to keep you honest on the mouse fib..... Congress Matters ::

Also, "The repeal of the Glass Steagal act during Clinton's watch" is technically true.
It was Clinton's final budget bill and highly contested, much like the stimulus bill trying to make it through congress now. It was down to the deadline without a budget and a lot of deal making going on. Phil Gram talked Sen. Luger into including the amendment to repeal Glass Steagal act in the dark of the night. He had been trying for years to repeal it.
So technically it was on Cinton's watch, but still Phil Gramm's doing.

If McCain would have won Phil Gramm would be Larry Summers and John Thain (1.2 million bathroom at Merril ) would be Geitner.


Plenty of blame to go around..... My personal opinion, that isn't worth too much, is the belief that deficit spending doesn't matter and lack of regulation did us in....
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Old 02-14-2009, 01:35 PM   #24
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I agree the repeal of the Glass Steagal Act was a mistake, but even if it had not been repealed it may not have covered the financial instruments created later. I think the Federal Reserve and SEC have not been good watchdogs since 2001 and they did not recommend legislation to control Wall St. Instead Wall St. was encouraged to create instruments that are now plaguing us. I think both parties were lax where Freddie and Fannie are concerned.

The overriding factor is that bankers created the financial instruments that were speculative. Bankers and mortgage companies issued stupid mortgages to people who didn't have clue what they were signing.

The story about money to protect marshland which coincidentally would protect a certain type of mouse is a fabrication posted on the internet. A neighbor told my wife the other day it was $50,000,000. Usually the story is $30,000,000. A Congressional staffer took a statement that a federal agency would like to protect marshland (the mouse part was a small part of the hoped for project) and decided to promote the idea that it was in the stimulus bill. That staffer has since admitted it is not and never was in the stimulus bill. Other myths about things that are claimed to be in the stimulus are circulating on the internet and show up on TV. Opponents of the bill get some TV time with this stuff.

So far as the tax credit and deductions for new vehicles, I got my information from the NY Times this morning. Whatever you can say about the Times' editorials, it still is one of very few newspapers with comprehensive and objective coverage. Some stuff has been in and out of the bill several times, so it gets pretty confusing.

Instead of requiring all reps and senators to work in the private sector, how about requiring them to be poor for five years? That is an eye opening experience. And then they should get a graduate degree where they can learn how to do research and logically assess facts and come to rational conclusions. A law degree helps so they know what legislation actually does. An advanced degree in public administration should help them understand how government works. Also some advanced study of ethics. I'm sure there are many other life experiences that would be helpful. Of course, this would mean amending the Constitution, not a particularly easy thing to do.

Many very long bills have been dumped on Congress over the years. Reps and senators have large staffs. Those are the people who actually read these things (and come up with myths like the mouse story). The Washington Post and NY Times managed to read through it, surely the staff members could. The basic bill has been around for several weeks—the amendments come frequently and once the original bill was read, all you have to do is read the amendments, not read the whole thing over and over. Waving the bill around and then dropping on the floor was theater for a TV clip, not the reality of legislative drafting. Everyone would like more time and the fact is there isn't more time. Even in normal years legislators never have enough time to look carefully at everything. I'm not sure there's any solution to that excepot abolish the government.

Gene
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Old 02-14-2009, 02:08 PM   #25
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Yup.
I had to laugh at one senator complaining he didn't have time to read the bill. Those guys don't read any of the bills. Not one. No one read the Patriot bill for example. The senators don't write any of the bills either. Lobbyists write the bills completely and hand them to the congressman.
I agree that the repeal of the Glass Steagal was just a start of the problem. There were long debates in Congress in the early 2000's on whether to create the " Phantom banking system" that investment banks wanted.
Greenspan was an advocate for deregulation ,as was Paulson. They argued that private investment banks didn't need regulation because they were super smart and would not take unnecessary risks. They argued that risk would be fairly priced....That worked out real well.
A friend was complaining about people on welfare being a problem. I told him " wait till you see what the rich people just did to you. You haven't seen anything yet. The magnitude of this unimaginable." We don't even know how big the problem is because we can not look at the books and see what's going on. The banks won't tell us because they are insolvent. Insolvent to the tune of 1.6 trillion dollars.
If you can handle it... google "Nouriel Roubini" Dr Doom,,,, but not right before you go to bed..
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Old 02-14-2009, 02:33 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denis4x4 View Post
the build up to WWII did more to create jobs then the WPA.
This is not the case. The depression was over by 1934. In fact the economy was doing so well by 1936 the government deliberately pulled back, causing the Roosevelt Recession of 1937 - 38.

The war only started in 1939. There was some buying from overseas. The big buildup in the US did not start until after Pearl Harbor in December 1941. In other words the big war buying did not start until 1942.
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Old 02-14-2009, 02:47 PM   #27
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no ethics= disaster

The problem, we've had a Democracy the last decade......Just wild video
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Old 02-14-2009, 05:25 PM   #28
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This dialog is interesting. However, I'm more concerned about an escalating class warfare that is creeping into this and several other forums I check on a daily basis.

Crawford Gene said,
"Instead of requiring all reps and senators to work in the private sector, how about requiring them to be poor for five years? That is an eye opening experience. And then they should get a graduate degree where they can learn how to do research and logically assess facts and come to rational conclusion".

With all due respect Gene, If you own a business and make sure your employees are paid first, you usually are poor! It's been my experience that most successful business owners usually have the ability to research, assess facts and reach rational conclusions in order to succeed based of real life experiences.

Perhaps we need to ban attorneys from holding office for 10 years and rely on common sense!
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Old 02-14-2009, 05:37 PM   #29
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This is not the case. The depression was over by 1934. In fact the economy was doing so well by 1936 the government deliberately pulled back, causing the Roosevelt Recession of 1937 - 38.

The war only started in 1939. There was some buying from overseas. The big buildup in the US did not start until after Pearl Harbor in December 1941. In other words the big war buying did not start until 1942.
Yes there was some buying from overseas, BUT Roosevelt was already beefing up the US production for the inevitable. I was recently working at an Alcoa plant that went on line in 1939/40 making aircraft parts, they started building the plant in 1936. By 1941 it was running near capacity by 1942 they were adding on to it and running over capacity.

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Old 02-14-2009, 06:18 PM   #30
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We need to ban irrational remarks....settle down dudes.
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Old 02-14-2009, 09:24 PM   #31
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If you're lost in the sixties, you need a genuine 60's muscle car like this '66 Olds Toronado with 385 HP. Great carbon footprint!
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Old 02-14-2009, 09:31 PM   #32
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I'm always a bit nervous when anyone says a "great majority opinion," Gene, particularly when it comes to economists. I'm rather fond of the old saw, every economist laid end-to-end still wouldn't reach a conclusion.

What actually happened during the Great Depression is still a matter of honest debate among historians (as if they know anything about economics). The divergence is far greater among economists.

To state that FDR was "too cautious" is, at best, an opinion, Gene, and should be parsed as such. At worst, it is a rote recitation of Keynesian orthodoxy... which is much kinder way of putting it than "wishful thinking." The "stimulus," as it is currently called, is little more than borrowing vast sums of money. What exactly what call of this borrowing, no one can really say except that it is going to be spent by the government. Now, when the great bailout was "necessary" (not long ago) free market economists generally did not like the idea. The "stimulus" is no more popular at least in some quarters. As Robert Higgs put it rather neatly, "This legislation entails the addition of a huge increment to the burden of debt the public must bear, directly or indirectly. It redirects resources on a grand scale from uses consumers value to uses politicians value and thereby impoverishes the general public."

Frankly, Gene, no one can say with absolute certainty what spending nearly a trillion dollars will do. The one prediction I can make with certainty is that 50 years from now, people will still be debating what happened and why. I'm inclined to agree with Russ Roberts when he said,

"Rather than spending money we don't have, I wish Obama would use his political capital to change the parts of our political system that are dysfunctional—our entitlement programs that are demographically bankrupt, our broken budget system, our Byzantine tax system, our financial system that is in disarray. These changes would be more likely to create the confidence and trust in the future that our economy needs to get healthy again rather than borrowing and spending. Borrowing and spending is how we got into this mess. Let's look in a different direction."

In the event you don't read the Roberts' piece, Gene, I'll cut-and-paste another paragraph:

"And yet there is little or no consensus for what we should do right now to get the economy going and prevent it from getting worse. I wish it were otherwise. People expect us to know the answers. And plenty of economists claim to have the answers. Yet some of the finest economists in the country, including Nobel laureates, are on opposite sides of the current debate. And each side can cherry-pick data or historical anecdotes in support of its position."

We're betting a trillion dollars (or more) on the macroeconomic roulette spin of "black." Frankly, it would be neat if you (and the Keynesians) are right, but I have the sinking feelings the ball will land on red.
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Old 02-15-2009, 03:14 AM   #33
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Wow, we put the wrong guy in the White House, you guys have all the answers to say the least.
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Old 02-15-2009, 06:11 AM   #34
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Wow, we put the wrong guy in the White House, you guys have all the answers to say the least.
The Right guy wasn't on the ticket. This is going to be an interesting decade.
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Old 02-15-2009, 06:34 AM   #35
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Thumbs up

Quote:
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If you're lost in the sixties, you need a genuine 60's muscle car like this '66 Olds Toronado with 385 HP. Great carbon footprint!
SWEET RIDE...

Those day's are behind me now...

I'm not concerned how fast I get there anymore...

As long as I'm there...

"Bertha" 1953 Ford Victoria. Un-restored, original. In the Family since new,
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Old 02-15-2009, 06:41 AM   #36
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We're hearing some off-topic economic musings that are meandering wider from the original subject of this thread. Non-denominational on the political front won't cut it -- please stay away from politics altogether. Let's treat this like grownups and handle it without edits at this point. No guarantees for the next time this gets moderators' attention...
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Old 02-16-2009, 06:22 AM   #37
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As to the woes of the RV aftermarket, versus the 1930's, "campers" of whatever sort tended to be backyard-built affairs as my grandfather noted. We had a much larger population relative to the total that was skilled in carpentry, metalwork, etc than today. And women who could cook, can food, and sew.

And, as we were a nation of renters, affording a car or truck and a camper was a bit easier. Cars wore out in about 3-years, and plenty of them were cheap. Not hard to see a project involving 3 or 4 donor vehicles. Even the persistent unemployment and, more importantly, underemployment.

Also, no safety inspections for the most part. If you could get it on the road, you were good to go. As my father-in-law noted, you just needed a well-tested recipe for patching tires. His family often spent at least a day, sometimes more, on trips from South Texas to Austin (about 200 miles).

Self-reliance, and a decent hardware store, could probably fix most anything the owners didn't.

"Plastic" rvs filled with China-made junk "accessories" are less attractive than ever, now.
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Old 02-16-2009, 09:36 AM   #38
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So... I opted out in Jan 2006

I sold my huge old money-pit of a house and moved into an Airstream in Jan 2006.

Does that make me a genius? NOPE. Just lucky on the timing, and wanting to have time to live instead of spending my life working on the old barn. Do I have friends who are now trying to accomplish what I did, but can't figure out how to do it when their $400K home is now worth $275K - leaving them upside down even though they did make a decent downpayment? Yep. Actually it's ironic but many people who are upside down COULD make the switch if they can rent their homes out even at a loss. A couple of friends just realized how much they are paying in household utilities - that a tenant would take over... It would pay them to move.

I'm finding that some people have started to realize that cable TV is not a necessity, and that deadbeat adult children can be sent to the basement or garage until they start to contribute to the household expenses, and that no one has to eat out 4 or 5 times a week.

Even our local WalMarts are not so busy as they once were and I don't get agorphobia if I shop there during normal business hours. Expect to see a LOT of the "open 24/7" ones closing from midnight to 6 am.

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Old 02-16-2009, 11:55 AM   #39
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H.L. Mencken (a Baltimore guy) once wrote, "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public." I expect "cheap," "plastic" and "made in China" will continue to be popular, perhaps moreso given the current economic climate.

The simple fact of the matter is that RV manufacturers build lots of "same old box" RVs... and they sell far more of those than Thor sells of Airstream travel trailers. My brother loves his 26' box complete with slide-out. And I'm sure he'll think I'm a fool because by the time I'm done... I'll have spent twice as much money renovating a 42-year-old Airstream as he spent buying his travel trailer new.

I expect we'll continue to see consolidation in the RV industry where players like Thor (with cash) can buy out weaker competitors. I also expect we'll see more "niche" manufacturers, particularly if Airstream accumulates more QC baggage. As with high end car or high end boats, I expect the market for high end travel trailers is relatively small... but one where a savvy manufacturer might enjoy higher margins than on "box" travel trailers. Actions like the CW loans suggest that Thor sees its future as expansion into other RV-related markets rather than a "return to glory" for Airstream. So it goes.
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Old 02-16-2009, 12:26 PM   #40
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I agree the taste for cheesy products is very, very large. Just drive along any strip development along America's highways as a good example, or watch the 20 shopping channels.

It is not the whole story and premium products and better styling are popular in certain parts of the country. For example, foreign cars sell better along the coasts (there are islands inland of course). They have generally had better engineering and more dynamic styling for decades. I wonder if Airstreams sell better in the same places? What differs, perhaps, is that some foreign manufacturers, especially Japanese, make the most reliable vehicles and Airstream has QC issues.

I think Thor sees Airstream as a brand to give the corporation caché (I hope I got that accent right). Because of the big profit margin, Airstream over time should show profit, and, also tend to carry the other lines because of the reputation factor. There could also be some sentimentality since Thor started with Airstream. They may think they don't have a QC problem because the Beatrice years were so bad, and QC in the RV world is far behind the auto/light truck world.

But, why buy into CW? It is a awkward looking conglomerate (see post #11 above) if the loan was actually to the owners, Affinity Group rather than CW as a part of the Group. This is not a good time for companies catering to RV owners, or publishing—and much of the publishing is RV oriented. I'm not sure what kind of equity is backing the loans—CW is a franchise company, isn't it? What do they really own? Franchise contracts and a small amount of inventory? All these magazines may not have much real estate behind them. Is there collateral? Without doing research, I can just ask questions. I assume Thor figures RV suppliers and magazines help support Thor's business.

Thor may have gotten some say over editorial content and what is supplied in CW stores (that could put them at odds with their dealers). Some CW franchise sell RV's—is there an intent to make some of them Airstream dealers? I would guess Thor has much more invested in their other brands and if they have a dealer play involved, it probably wouldn't be Airstreams unless there are no other Airstream dealers anywhere nearby. If those things are part of the deal, it would make more sense to me.

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