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Old 09-25-2022, 04:19 PM   #1
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Hurricane Season 2022

Sorry that my health limits the time and energy available to watch Ian and so forth.

Mollysdad and others . . . could you please give us your thoughts?

Thanks,

Peter

PS -- 2021 thread OP is here:

https://www.airforums.com/forums/f16...ml#post2474649
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Old 09-25-2022, 04:25 PM   #2
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Mike's Weather Page:

https://spaghettimodels.com/

National Hurricane Center:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5



Image link: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png
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Old 09-25-2022, 04:32 PM   #3
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NHC Ian link:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...?cone#contents

Cone:


Cone Link: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...e_and_wind.png
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Old 09-26-2022, 12:16 PM   #4
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Our hearts go out to everyone who lives in areas that will be impacted by wind and storm surge flooding, possibly combined with the highest high tide of the month, depending when Ian arrives.

We would not be in an RV on the west coast of Florida right now anywhere between Ft. Meyers and Tallahassee. We'd be moving right now. Today. Now. Inland and then north, our route avoiding the east coast as well, with a bend to the west once I got far enough north. Given we are CFL residents away from either coast, currently subject only to tropical storm warnings and the likely occasional tornado, we plan to stay put in our sticks & bricks home fully equipped with solar and PowerWalls to withstand a power outage of indefinite length, while hoping that with tropical storm conditions our house is safe enough and that the covered storage building doesn't come down on our Airstream Interstate which should otherwise be fine.

You know what they say, "hide from the wind, run from the water." We'll be hiding from the wind and are fortunate enough to not be on the coast or along a river - most of CFL's rivers are quite likely to hit flood stages during this storm, so also don't camp along any riverbanks in CFL until things settle down. Oh, and of course, never drive on any road submerged in water. If you encounter a road submerged in flood waters, turn around and stay alive.
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Old 09-26-2022, 12:38 PM   #5
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I'm under a mandatory evacuation at 2 PM.
So I'm packing the necessities for a few days in the Airstream.
I may head east and I may stay in the storage yard under cover (and 40 miles inland.)
Even a close brush west of us will be a big rain event, and the rotation pushes water into Tampa Bay.
Let's hope this becomes a big nothing.
I was just thinking how we went all season without a storm making landfall in the US. Looks like Ian will spoil that although not predicted to be a major storm by landfall.
The Grocery is out of water. I hear that people return it after the storm passes for a refund!
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Old 09-26-2022, 01:39 PM   #6
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Best wishes for a safe evacuation, here's hoping it's entirely unnecessary.

Regarding the return of bottled water after a storm, last time around Costco had up signs saying they would not be accepting returns of water or toilet paper. Haven't been there yet to see whether they did the same this time.

Another very helpful, though unofficial, place to get more info on Hurricane Ian and other tropical storms: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
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Old 09-26-2022, 03:37 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocinante View Post
Best wishes for a safe evacuation, here's hoping it's entirely unnecessary.
Thanks.
Quote:
Regarding the return of bottled water after a storm, last time around Costco had up signs saying they would not be accepting returns of water or toilet paper.
The Lowe's near me swears a lady buys a Christmas tree every year and returns it in January for a refund!

By now, every person in Florida should have a pallet of water. It happens every time there's even a chance of a storm.

Frankly, I'd rather have a pallet of liquor. In the words of W.C. Fields, "I used to drink water until I discovered the terrible things fish did in it!"
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Old 09-27-2022, 02:39 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocinante View Post
Best wishes for a safe evacuation . . .
. . .
Copy that.

Peter
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Old 09-27-2022, 02:41 AM   #9
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Another model of the track forecast:
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Old 09-27-2022, 06:21 AM   #10
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Westward Ho?

Is the eye veering a little to the west of most forecasted tracks?

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Old 09-28-2022, 05:16 AM   #11
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Ian has just been declared a Category 4 Hurricane.

https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2...ast-wednesday/
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Old 09-28-2022, 06:26 AM   #12
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Wish all of you in its track the best.
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Old 09-29-2022, 11:49 AM   #13
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A Tampa update FYI -- now a Cat 1 hurricane.

https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2...ast-wednesday/

The image in Post #10 is updated too.

Hope everyone did OK.

Peter
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Old 09-29-2022, 02:01 PM   #14
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I got the mandatory evacuation order on Monday.
Tuesday at 5 am the cone looked bad for Tampa, I planned on picking up the trailer and heading East. Vero? W. Palm?
By the time I actually left, got gas, and drove to the storage yard, the cone looked better for Tampa, worse for Sarasota.
I decided to stay and wait. I'm under cover in a strong building. I have 30 amp power so I had all the comforts of home. As the gusts increased and the rain came down at 45º, the trailer did a little rocking. I doubled up on wheel chocks so the tongue jack couldn't slide off the block. The dog was uncomfortable, seeing me a bit stressed.
At 8 Pm last night (wed) power went out. I brought the generator but the truck was exposed in the rain so I decided to wait until morning. Early to bed, temp in the low 70's.
We (Tampa) dodged a bullet. I feel sorry for folks in Port Charlotte, Ft. Meyers, and even Naples. They got slammed.
This morning with sunrise, the rain had stopped and it was breezy. Just as I went to fire up the generator, the evacuation order was lifted. Came home!
Things I wish I did differently. Have a battery radio. I was spoiled in that I use my phone to stream radio using the I ❤️ app. No help when you have 1 bar and 5 million people are searching with their phones too. (I really missed high speed internet.)
Next, have a way to charge your phone that doesn't involve ac power. You might not have it. I did, but it took some searching for cables.
I did have a NOAA weather radio and it was torture. It's so detailed, that warnings that have nothing to do with you take forever. ("Flood stage on the Manatee river expected to match the 1963 record!") Okay, it's important for those folks, but no one listens to a recording an hour long. Tell me where the storm center is and what direction it's moving.
My internet was phone data so the NHC map or weather radar sometimes wouldn't even load. I tried the phone as a hot spot and use the I-pad, but that was worse. 1 bar just takes forever, or fails.
At home, I have about a million Oak Leaves and 50 palm fronds. Thankfully no big trees down, never lost power. The city workers are clearing branches from the streets this morning. City did good! (two thumbs up) Mail being delivered too.
Looking out my window, I see nothing but blue Sky. Amazing. I was 100 miles from the eye and I saw enough to hope I never ride one out.
The worst part is never knowing if you made the right choice. Stay, go? Which direction? At some point it's too late to change your mind. I was okay.
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Old 09-29-2022, 05:28 PM   #15
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Thanks for the detailed update . . . lots of good food for thought!

Glad you are OK.

Peter
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Old 09-30-2022, 09:25 AM   #16
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Thanks for the recommendations, Mollysdad. Really glad you're ok.
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Old 09-30-2022, 01:34 PM   #17
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Thanks for the recommendations, Mollysdad. Really glad you're ok.
Thanks.
Molly was a trooper.
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Old 09-30-2022, 01:45 PM   #18
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Glad y’all are safe.
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Old 10-05-2022, 10:18 AM   #19
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I'm from the Clearwater area. Couldn't decide to stay or go, so stayed. We sure lucked out. No damage to Airstream which was in a exposed place. A few big gusts here and little rain. But she was ready for Ian. Sadly it hit SW Florida pretty hard. Maybe next time we'll head for the hills, but you never know how they'll turn until the last minute.
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Old 10-05-2022, 01:50 PM   #20
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Today, life seems normal. Sunny mid 80's. No wind.
I was exiting my local Tampa grocery and noticed the traffic lights were not vertical.
They're mounted on a post across the intersection.
They must have twisted in the North wind and never recovered.
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