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Old 07-08-2021, 01:10 AM   #61
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Well said.

The maps continue to show Elsa as a Tropical Storm [wind <45 MPH] all the way up to Newfoundland by Saturday night, after passing over us on Friday.

Peter
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Old 07-08-2021, 08:19 PM   #62
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The Tornado that hit the Kings Bay RV park (Eagles Hammock), was on the ground for 3.65 miles and has now been rated an EF2. It was a couple hundred yards wide. It had reached maximum intensity as it crossed the Naval Base from South to North. Ten people are hospitalized.

It came within a mile or so of our trailer in storage just to the West of there, and just off base.

There is some footage of other damage, including a 2020 SOB that was picked up and tossed a couple hundred feet in St Marys at News4Jax.com

Keep safe out there!
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Old 07-08-2021, 11:51 PM   #63
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"Run Elsa Run!"

Thanks for that update. Sorry for all the loss and damage, but glad your trailer is OK.

Here Elsa comes up the Jersey Shore . . . aiming right at us on Eastern Long Island NY:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/co.../weather-radar

You can zoom out/in, and re-center the action. Looks like the Elsa's center will pass to our West, putting us in the eastern [windy] quadrants IMO.

Peter
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Old 07-08-2021, 11:56 PM   #64
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Flash Flood Warnings

Plenty of flash flood warnings north of us, in Connecticut, Massachsetts and coastal Maine.



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...0WPCERO_sm.gif

From Mike's Weather Page: https://spaghettimodels.com/default.htm
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Old 07-09-2021, 12:02 AM   #65
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Satellite view

This satellite view of the action seems to indicate that the center will hit us in about 2-3 hours, like a bullseye IMO:

https://www.weathernerds.org/satelli...ff&initsst=Off

Peter
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Old 07-09-2021, 12:09 AM   #66
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Local airport -- South wind 5 MPH -- Barometer 29.97"

The local airport reports South winds of 5 MPH at 01:55 AM:

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KHTO.html

Air pressure of 29.97 inches.

No rain at all in the 3 right columns.

This may all change soon . . .
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Old 07-09-2021, 12:20 AM   #67
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NDBC Station 44017

This ocean buoy 23 NM SSW of Montauk NY reports fairly benign recent conditions as of 0200 EDT IMO:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=44017

Wind S 9.7 knots
Gust 13.6 knots
Air temp 72.1F
Air pressure 29.97"
Wave height 3.9 feet

Nice combined chart of wind speed/gusts, and air pressure:



https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot....time_label=EDT

There is also an interactive map there, so zooming out gives a good sense of this buoy's location IMO.

Peter
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Old 07-09-2021, 12:34 AM   #68
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Tide Station MTKN6

This tide station on a pier in Montauk reports simiiar data as of 01:54 EDT:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=mtkn6

Water level: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/st...tml?id=8510560

Water level of 1.14' . . . about 0.5' above the blue line's predicted level IMO.
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Old 07-09-2021, 02:47 AM   #69
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Update -- 0447 EDT

The links posted earlier, starting in Post #63 [hot link in blue], show the situation deteriorating quickly IMO.
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Old 07-09-2021, 10:01 AM   #70
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Elsa flew through by fast, and is almost over Boston already . . . broad-brush local maximums:

Wind/gusts -- 35/45 MPH [now mostly from the W/SW]
Air pressure -- 29.4" [lowest]
Wave heights at that offshore buoy -- from 3.3' to 9.2' in a few hours
Tide level in Montauk Harbor -- 2.3' above normal

Clearing up a bit at the local ocean beach: https://www.hamptons.com/Main-Beach-Cam
Surf pretty wild.

Will be interesting to see if the warm ocean temp anomalies to the NE [per Post #34 -- hot link in blue] have any effect on Elsa.
Guessing not much, given how quickly she is moving IMO.

Peter
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Old 07-09-2021, 12:40 PM   #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
. . .
Clearing up a bit at the local ocean beach: https://www.hamptons.com/Main-Beach-Cam
. . .
Lookin' good down at the ocean!

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Old 07-10-2021, 04:21 AM   #72
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Elsa -- Earliest E-named storm on record

Hmmmm . . . Elsa set a record for being early so early to the game:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurri...rm-elsa/978433

How about Mike's Weather Page for some hints about what may be developing next?

https://spaghettimodels.com/default.htm

Nothing noted in the new 5-day outlook here:


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Discussion: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

Have a good weekend.

Peter
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Old 07-10-2021, 05:23 AM   #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
Interestingly Elsa is forecast to be a Tropical Storm again by Friday morning, and right over us!
[maps in earlier posts are updating in real time]

Peter
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Old 07-10-2021, 03:27 PM   #74
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NHC Sat 2PM update

"For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days."

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml
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Old 07-11-2021, 06:20 PM   #75
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Tonight's update says the same thing, or roughly until the end of this week on Friday IMO.

Peter
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Old 07-13-2021, 12:59 AM   #76
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Ditto for the 2 AM update this morning:

"Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days."

This would carry us through the weekend IMO.

Peter
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Old 07-16-2021, 02:38 PM   #77
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FYI -- The same advice at 2 PM today.

Have a good weekend.

Peter
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Old 07-22-2021, 05:35 AM   #78
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Southeast US disturbance

FYI there is a warning of a fairly minor situation in the Southeast US:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Text discussion here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml



And a Gale Warning also: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml

Peter

FYI
FWIW
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