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Mollysdad · 07-02-2021, 09:24 AM

The 11 am track moves further east, coming ashore about Ft. Meyers and exiting at Jacksonville.

OTRA15 · 07-02-2021, 11:14 AM

By Sunday afternoon, the projected track should be a little more refined IMO. Until then . . . lots of factors as everyone has suggested, including water temps and mountain topography in Cuba.

Have a great Fourth of July!

Peter

OTRA15 · 07-02-2021, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mollysdad

. . .
. . . a few ice cubes in a ziplock bag in the freezer.
. . .

Or a penny on top of a small ice cube in a shot glass in the freezer.

No plastic required.

All tools probably in the tool bag already.

KISS

Peter

OTRA15 · 07-04-2021, 05:27 AM

The 5 AM update -- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml

"Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur tonight and Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf of Mexico some slight restrengthening is possible."

Have a great Fourth.

Peter

OTRA15 · 07-04-2021, 07:33 PM

Interesting that the projected cone now shows Elsa as fairly benign, until the end of the week, when she may become a tropical storm again ["S"] near Cape Cod.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...?cone#contents

Will the warmer ocean temp anomalies, NE of Cape Cod, then fuel Elsa's power as she heads off to the Canadian Maritime Provinces?

[Click on orange arrow to see the water temp anomalies map in Post #34]

Quote:

Originally Posted by OTRA15

Interesting that the sea temp north of Cape Hatteras is running 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit [2-4C] above normal +/-. This yellow/orange hot spot ENE of Cape Cod could fuel Elsa to become a real threat to New England, and the Canadian Maritime Provinces IMO.
. . .

Best wishes for you folks on the Gulf Coast of southern Florida, and on the Panhandle.

Peter

OTRA15 · 07-05-2021, 01:16 AM

Oops . . . that map updated overnight, and the "S" Tropical Storm designation is now consistent -- all the way from Cuba to Nova Scotia.

OTRA15 · 07-05-2021, 08:53 AM

. . . plus Elsa appears to be picking up forward speed, as Friday's "S" is now offshore of The Eastern Shore of VA/DC/MD.
[previously near Cape Cod on Friday]

Peter

Mollysdad · 07-05-2021, 10:34 AM

The spaghetti models are tightening up and staying a bit offshore.
Landfall around Cedar Key/Tallahassee?
The rotation and staying to the west means it could trigger flooding as the water is pushed into the bays. However, it's a TS, not hurricane, and the forward progress at 14 mph has it moving through. Storm surge of 2' - 4' is expected.
I'm more worried about losing power, since my area has lots of old live oaks, so having a nice generator in the truck might come in handy.

OTRA15 · 07-05-2021, 11:37 AM

Thanks for the updated map. Good points about new track, wind rotation, and surge potential.

Peter

OTRA15 · 07-06-2021, 02:50 AM

The latest NHC Storm Surge update projects possibly 3' to 5' for the west coast of Florida north of the Tampa St. Pete area:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...Surge#contents

OTRA15 · 07-06-2021, 12:50 PM

To be a hurricane when she hits Northern Florida?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...?cone#contents

OTRA15 · 07-07-2021, 10:41 AM

Interestingly Elsa is forecast to be a Tropical Storm again by Friday morning, and right over us!
[maps in earlier posts are updating in real time]

Peter

Tomzstream · 07-07-2021, 04:35 PM

Just had Elsa blow through here! We were under a tornado watch most of the afternoon and it continues until 8 tonight. The most severe bands just triggered a number of tornadoes and waterspouts around Jacksonville, one on the St Johns River and a tornado on the ground on the NE side in Arlington.

That triggered a Tornado Warning for us here in Nassau county and all hell broke loose. Simultaneous Alerts on the Weather radio, the Reverse 911 system from the County Sheriff, and and Iphone and watch alerts. We were smack dab in the middle of it. No reports yet of a touchdown here, but watching live TV of a reported touchdown North of St Mary's in Georgia, which is directly North of us. They are using a Debris Detector radar and it sure looks close to where we have our Airstream stored near the Kings Bay Naval Base. Won't know until we go up there tomorrow.

No damage to our house that I can see yet, but we had some pretty good gusts and all my trees are still standing. Over 2.5 inches of rain so far today.

It's now working its way up through Glynn County in Georgia, but we are expecting follow-on bands of storms through tomorrow. But for now, it looks like the worst is over.

OTRA15 · 07-07-2021, 04:43 PM

Thanks for those details. Yeah, I saw some pretty intense squall lines on the radar this morning, shooting out on the eastern side of Elsa toward the Atlantic coastline.

Never say never for this one IMO. The earlier Post #34, showing significant ocean water temp anomalies from Cape Cod to Nova Scotia, could still come into play here. There is a TON of extra hot water stored in the Gulf Stream up there, and it is just waiting to release its stored energy into the cooler storm, and thermal updrafts, which will be passing overhead over the weekend.

Mother Earth is alive and well . . . and will find her own balance here!

Peter

Tomzstream · 07-07-2021, 04:53 PM

Yep! That ocean and the Gulf Stream is abnormally warm for this time of year. We are getting another squall right now.

This storm is taking a tour of places I have lived... Tampa, here, Charleston AFB, Raleigh NC, South Jersey... and Harmon AFB in Stephenville Newfoundland. Wouldn't be surprised if she holds together all the way to the UK where I was born! My mom wrote in her journals about boarding the USS United States in the Fall of 53 when I was a baby... the first three days were delightful and they had a first class cabin. Then a Storm came up and the captain decided to plow right through instead of taking a detour. The stewardess, who was an experienced cruiser, went to her cabin and pulled the sheets over her head, convinced they were done for. The ship sustained so much damage, it spent the better part of the next year in dry dock. And my wife doesn't understand why I don't like to cruise! lol

I have family up in Rockport so they are now on the alert too. Could easily strengthen again. Keep alert and stay safe!

OTRA15 · 07-07-2021, 05:04 PM

Well said . . . thanks for the tour through all those seas and haunts, familiar to our family as well. Lots of time "Down East" with the old 1985 Sovereign 25' back in the 90's . . . deep roots in Portland.

Do you listen to WERU online? A great station . . . with a fine bluegrass show on Thursday nights at 8 PM:

https://spinitron.com/WERU/show/110373/Bronzewound
Player: https://weru.org/player/

Yee Ha!

Peter

Tomzstream · 07-07-2021, 06:32 PM

Damn! The tornado I saw on Radar was no doubt this one that hit the RV park on Kings Bay Naval base. It is occupied and there are multiple injuries.

Our trailer is stored just outside the base gate at Freedom Storage at the corner of Kings Bay Rd and Coletrain Rd. Going up tomorrow to see if it got hit. A lot of the base personnel store their boats and RVs at the facility I use. Many sailors also store their cars there while deployed. It's well built with steel girders and a good roof.

https://weather.com/news/news/2021-0...tages-flooding

uncle_bob · 07-07-2021, 07:05 PM

Hi

Not a good day to be in St Marys.

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/0...ase-kings-bay/

One of our favorite places to visit ......

Bob

Tomzstream · 07-07-2021, 07:19 PM

BTW, we became big fans of "Back Porch Music" while living in Raleigh. WUNC broadcast and on the internet. Great shows on Fri, Sat, and Sunday. Freddy Jenkins is very knowledgeable. https://www.wunc.org/back-porch-music

Tomzstream · 07-07-2021, 07:38 PM

Lots of folks discount these Hurricane and TS spawned tornadoes, often called tree top and roofline skippers, and when over water, waterspouts, and while they are typically EF0 or EF1, all you have to do is see what it can do to an RV or Truck to understand the power behind them. And while they aren't mile wide, they are more unpredictable. They do not form typically in thunderstorms that range up to 50K feet high like the monster convection driven tornadoes in the South and Midwest, but rather, are caused by shear in the atmosphere. The storms today barely got up to 20 thousand feet. And they are harder to detect with doppler radar as their rotation is often very temporary. Around here, they are using debris detection algorithms... that detect different sized particles in the reflection. It shows up as a blue blob on the radar. Pretty cool stuff, until you are under one!

We had one cut across Amelia Island a few years ago (I think it was associated with Matthew). Believe me, it did plenty of damage to some very nice homes. We live in a part of Fernandina Beach that is actually off island (so designated by the developers here) and we are actually closer to Yulee. We do so because our insurance rates are lower. But these nasty little buggers like to spawn just about along a line ten miles inland and that's exactly what we got today.