Quote:
Originally Posted by Garfield
Hi Silver; I won't disagree with any of your comments except to say that whatever the dire economic consequences of living beyond our means for the past three or four decades, it won't be a repeat of the Depression.
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I hope yer right. As much as I don't want to think it, I do have to consider it a possibility, even if it is a mild depression. I say that only because it seems like a lot of deregulation has happened and those regulations in some areas were set up to stop this kind of stuff going on. There use to be oil futures regulations, thanks to Enron, those were lifted and we all saw what happened to oil/gas prices...even as demand went down and supply went up, let alone the things that allowed Enron to do what they did. They just had a segment on this very thing on 60 minutes this evening. Banking, investment firms, etc...all regulated then deregulated and again, we've all seen first hand where that path led.
350 billion handed out and few banks are flowing credit.
The fact is that the lists that were just recently posted will most likely grow 2 fold by the time this is over. Fleetwood is in DIRE straights right now. Fleetwood goes away, that is going to be just another nail in the RV industry coffin. They have already from what I understand closed 2 plants. Winnebago could be right behind them. Thor, parent company of Airstream from what I recall has no debt and is somewhat diversified, but even Thor, with no debt might also wind up shuttering some brands should this continue.
I guess my point is that all the ingredients for more than just a very bad recession are there. How bad will it get is really open to debate....throw in high energy prices which have a ripple effect on other sectors, but a significant impact on the RV and auto businesses mixed in with little to no credit flowing, consumers with an average credit card debt of $12k, no way to use their homes as ATMs, and we've got real issues.
What I find odd and I know it's just probably me, is that recession signs were all around us even as far back as 12 or more months ago and few in Government wanted to say the "R" word, and by the time they did, it was already too late.
What is being done now is similar to what FDR did with the "New Deal" and the WPA program. Though it did help, it alone didn't solve the problem, WWII did....and I shudder at the thought if history repeats itself and the next administrations proposals go into effect and have the results that FDR's admin had with the New Deal and WPA....and one just has to go to CNN or read any news outlet's info to see that the Middle East is just coming unglued.
By all indications 2009 is going to be worse than 2008 and even the next administration is now saying openly they "hope" this works and that there will be sacrifices by all. The plain truth is that even the US Gov isn't sure this is going to work....and guess what, the US Gov has a debt that is now in the trillions, which if they were rated like business, they'd be junk status. Banks fail, I can't see where any $$$ would come to shore up FDIC...I mean even Social Security has been robbed for decades...the fund is dry and they are in essence taking from Peter to give to Paul, and borrowing like drunken sailors in a port of call from China.
I'll be keeping my fingers crossed that this all works out and doesn't get much worse. The manufacturing sector is in REAL trouble and that represents about 4 or 5 out of every 10 jobs out there. In this case I would be VERY happy to be wrong here about all of it and that I'm gonna wake up and realize it was all just a bad dream.