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Old 10-17-2019, 12:37 PM   #1
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Thought of Michael.

Let me say, I'm not a doom and gloom guy, but when I saw tropical activity in the lower gulf, late in the season, with the potential to head to the Florida panhandle, I thought, I hope this isn't another Michael.
So far it isn't. Looks to become a tropical storm and nothing more, but it's drawn a bead right about the same spot as Michael.
So far it's PTC16 (potential tropical cyclone)
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Old 10-18-2019, 10:29 AM   #2
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Thanks for the heads up.

Worth watching for sure: https://spaghettimodels.com/

The charts below should update in real time.

Peter




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Old 10-18-2019, 10:32 AM   #3
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PS -- May be intensifying?

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Old 10-18-2019, 12:32 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
PS -- May be intensifying?
I was confused by reading Mike's weather page this morning, and the cone chart said the maximum sustained wind was 60mph. But it was still being called PTC16, not a named storm (Nestor). At 39mph, it should be a TS.?

BTW, it's moving NE at 22mph, which is good, because it won't sit in the gulf and fester, it will zoom through!
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Old 10-18-2019, 02:02 PM   #5
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1PM update, no increase in wind speed but now referred to as TS Nestor.
It will make landfall by 7am tomorrow morning (Sat), and by 7am Sunday it will be exiting the NC coast.
Let's hope this is the last of the tropical weather this year!
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Old 10-19-2019, 07:47 AM   #6
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Nestor appears to be weakening IMO. See earlier charts which are updating in real time.

Have a good weekend.

Peter
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Old 10-19-2019, 09:10 AM   #7
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Yes. Top wind has dropped to 50, but forward progress slowed to 17 mph.
Seems like when the wind bands reach the land mass, they strip off some velocity.
Here in Tampa it's a slow drizzle, light breeze.
Nestor did a weird jog, NE - NW - NE. Looks to make landfall just east of Panama City right about now!

Add this site to your arsenal of tools. It's a combination of radars and satellite mapping. It always seems to be about 6 minutes behind real time so it's great for tracking your local weather.
https://www.wjhg.com/templates/2015_Fullscreen_Radar
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Old 10-19-2019, 09:28 AM   #8
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It's a nice rainy day where I am in central FL, ~70 miles south of I-4 on US-27.
Occasion there gusty breeze, but no strong wind. Occasionally there is a heavy shower, but mostly their is light rain.
I'm enjoying the cool day, 76F right now.
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Old 10-19-2019, 09:36 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
Nestor appears to be weakening IMO. See earlier charts which are updating in real time.

Have a good weekend.

Peter
Peter,
Thanks for sharing storm reports.
I don't know how you post those "in post" images. If you want to post some different information about what is going on, look at the radar showing rain on the east side of the present storm over Florida. There is an incredible amount of rain happening away from the storm track. It started just after dark last evening and has continued all through the night.

ps:
This storm is really good for back home in NC. We have had no measurable rain between the last week of July and the second week of October.
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Old 10-19-2019, 09:52 AM   #10
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This storm is really good for back home in NC. We have had no measurable rain between the last week of July and the second week of October.
Good. Let it go through before Alumalina!

Sun just came out in Tampa. 11 am.
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Old 10-19-2019, 11:11 AM   #11
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Peter,
Thanks for sharing storm reports.
I don't know how you post those "in post" images . . .
. . .
I explained that in a recent thread, and will do so here when I get back home later.

Peter
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Old 10-20-2019, 07:31 AM   #12
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PS -- I am still looking for that post, Alan, maybe later today. Also, in the FAQ link above there are instructions for inserting images which apply, I think. TBD for now . . . busy here.

Peter
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Old 10-20-2019, 09:18 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
PS -- I am still looking for that post, Alan, maybe later today. Also, in the FAQ link above there are instructions for inserting images which apply, I think. TBD for now . . . busy here.

Peter
Thanks Peter! There is no need to continue looking. I remember that post.
I know how to insert an image.
I know how to link/insert a linked video.

What I am curious about is that moving image you attached in post #3, that you captured from the NOAA website.
I'll figure it out on my own. I'm always curious!
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Old 10-20-2019, 12:48 PM   #14
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[From my Mac laptop with Bluetooth mouse]

Go to Mike's and find a moving image you want to paste here. Click on [maybe double-click?] that image and a new window/tab will open up. Right click on that, and choose Copy or Copy Image I forget.

In your draft post here, get the cursor where you want the moving image, and Paste, which is is another right-click for me, but Edit/Paste above should work in most browsers IMO. I guess a shortcut like Control P will also work but I never sync'ed into that editing mode.

I think you can also paste the URL of that moving image between the two commands -- [IMG] and [/IMG] -- which is covered in the FAQ I referenced earlier.

There is also an Image button in the "Go Advanced" button when you post here IMO.

I just stuck with the first route I found to get to the campground. Your path may vary. ["YPMV"]



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