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09-11-2017, 08:13 PM
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#2
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Half a Rivet Short
2017 30' Classic
2022 Interstate 24X
Carlisle
, Pennsylvania
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 15,675
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Hi
Let's hope that the European models (other than UK Met) are the correct ones. They pretty much let the US off the hook on this one. Not sure what will happen in Newfoundland. It's still pretty soon to make any guesses there. If it swings towards Virginia early /mid next week, I'll let you know what it looks like as it goes over the campsite
Bob
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09-12-2017, 07:33 AM
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#3
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Since the chart in the first post updates constantly, for the record the NVGM, which is a Navy tracking model apparently, is about 1 degree longitude off of Cape Hatteras IMO, or about 60-ish statute miles. My impression is that it was further off the coast yesterday.
TBD
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09-12-2017, 09:33 AM
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#4
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Half a Rivet Short
2017 30' Classic
2022 Interstate 24X
Carlisle
, Pennsylvania
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 15,675
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Hi
Unless my geography has taken a significant hit, I can't think of a much better place for it to just be spinning in circles right now. As long as it's going nowhere, that suggests there isn't a lot of horsepower to drag another storm into the area.
Bob
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09-13-2017, 10:00 AM
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#5
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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The 11:51 update to the map now has the NYGM line further east of Cape Hatteras, but coming right over eastern Long Island, then continuing up into New England. The various TV station forecasters have been saying that Jose will probably do quite a bit of wandering in the next few days, as various Highs and Lows travel eastward just north of Jose, in the open ocean.
Still looking like mainland US will not get anything, but, like the Hurricane of 1938, New England including Cape Cod should continue to monitor Jose IMO.
Peter
PS -- From the Additional Information at the sfwmd site:
"NVGM - NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM)"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navy_G...onmental_Model
https://www.google.com/search?q=NVGM...utf-8&oe=utf-8
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09-14-2017, 04:13 AM
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#6
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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As the days go on, the various models are starting to suggest that Jose should go well east of Cape Hatteras. [Maps in first post]
Cape Cod and the Canadian Maritime Provinces, however, could receive a glancing blow IMO.
"Surf's Up" may be heard up and down the east coast!
Wave heights forecast:
http://static.baynews9.com/images/wx...eights_atl.jpg
Peter
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09-14-2017, 02:24 PM
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#7
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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The 16:21 update has the tracks coming together, Jose moving closer to NC, and aiming for LI and New England, before turning out to sea.
We shall sea!
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09-15-2017, 02:42 AM
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#8
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Alert for Cape Hatteras to Nova Scotia
Overnight the projections for Jose's path have taken a decided turn to the west and north, with Long Island and New England now having a much better chance of taking a hit from this storm IMO. The eye may pass well to the east of Cape Hatteras, but the wind and wave action could be severe, all the way to Nova Scotia. [Maps in Post #1 update automatically]
Cape Hatteras could start feeling the action as early as Sunday evening, with the eye forecast to be directly east by Monday night.
As the winds rotating counter-clockwise approach from the south, extreme high tides in Long Island Sound are a real possibility, as are the tides in the greater NYC "bight" which flooded terribly in Sandy.
Stay safe!
Peter
PS -- Links for tracking:
http://spaghettimodels.com/
Other models' tracks: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stor...efs_latest.png
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09-15-2017, 04:37 AM
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#9
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Figment of My Imagination
2012 Interstate Coach
From All Over
, More Than Anywhere Else
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 10,868
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
Cape Hatteras could start feeling the action as early as Sunday evening, with the eye forecast to be directly east by Monday night.
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According to the US Navy's "Hurricane Havens Handbook," the Cape Hatteras area gets nailed by more hurricanes than anywhere else in the United States, having been affected by 194 tropical storm events (of which 130 of them were hurricanes) in the 127 years for which records have been published.
Those aren't all direct strikes, just storms passing close enough, within approximately 180 miles, so that number includes storms that never officially make landfall because the eye stayed offshore, but still caused high winds, heavy rains, and storm surges at Cape Hatteras.
Cape Hatteras is populated by three types of people: hurricane veterans, hurricane veterans in training, and tourists.
__________________
I thought getting old would take longer!
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09-15-2017, 05:07 AM
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#10
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Great oceanfront camping there too, with the next month or two being the best time of year.
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09-15-2017, 10:24 AM
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#11
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Half a Rivet Short
2017 30' Classic
2022 Interstate 24X
Carlisle
, Pennsylvania
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 15,675
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Hi
Been to Cape Hatteras a number of times and it's a fine place to go. We're just slightly further north from there right now. We'll see how this all works out ..... Clear blue sky in the morning with clouds building to rain in the afternoon has been the pattern so far.
Now if I could just get the F/A-18's fly a slightly different pattern ....
Bob
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09-15-2017, 10:28 AM
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#12
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Rivet Master
2020 28' Flying Cloud
2017 23' Flying Cloud
Hiawassee
, Georgia
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 1,398
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uncle_bob
Hi
Been to Cape Hatteras a number of times and it's a fine place to go. We're just slightly further north from there right now. We'll see how this all works out ..... Clear blue sky in the morning with clouds building to rain in the afternoon has been the pattern so far.
Now if I could just get the F/A-18's fly a slightly different pattern ....
Bob
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You must be near PAX River?
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09-15-2017, 12:09 PM
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#13
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Or NAS Oceana in Virginia Beach? I stayed at a large CG there in the 90's on the way back north after buying our old 25' and the jets were part of the landscape.
Bob can you recommend any campgrounds, as we are thinking of heading south later this fall.
Thanks,
Peter
PS -- Jose's possible tracks appear to have moved east during the day. The maps in earlier posts update here with each revision at their source locations, amazingly!
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09-15-2017, 12:29 PM
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#14
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Fly Navy and Beat Army!
2018 27' Tommy Bahama
St Peters
, Missouri
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uncle_bob
Now if I could just get the F/A-18's fly a slightly different pattern ....
Bob
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Amazing how perspectives can be different!
Send them my way. Having been an F-14 backseater, I would be happy to be under their flight path. My wife, maybe not so much.
Fly Navy!
Squire
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09-15-2017, 01:25 PM
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#15
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Rivet Master
2007 22' International CCD
Corona
, California
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 9,180
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Hurricane Jose
You haven't heard loud until you have been in 'Vulture's Roost' while an F-4J is turning up for s fully loaded cat shot on the Starboard bow catapult. Nothing like all 4 stages of afterburner on a pair of engines at full power. At a point, you can no longer hear it--just feel the vibration in your body...
I'm totally amazed I still have decent hearing nowadays...40+ years later!
USS Ranger, CVA-61 at the time.
Blackshoe Navy veteran.
__________________
Rich, KE4GNK/AE, Overkill Engineering Dept.
'The Silver HamShack' ('07 International 22FB CCD 75th Anniversary)
Multiple Yaesu Ham Radios inside and many antennae sprouting from roof, ProPride hitch, Prodigy P2 controller.
2012 shortbed CrewMax 4x4 Toyota Tacoma TV with more antennae on it.
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09-15-2017, 03:43 PM
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#16
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Half a Rivet Short
2017 30' Classic
2022 Interstate 24X
Carlisle
, Pennsylvania
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 15,675
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Hi
We're at Kiptopeke State Park which is indeed just a short distance from NAS Oceana. It's also pretty close to Langley so the 10 PM afterburners were necessarily Navy. I'm pretty darn sure they weren't Bubba's souped up truck.
The campground here is very nice. The staff is super attentive to keeping things running right and picked up. The sites are a bit wide open, but there are a few with some shade. There are a number of very flat sites. There are a couple in the "don't try that" category lumps and bumps wise .... don't ask how I know
Things to do wise, this is pretty laid back. If you are into wineries and craft beer, not your spot. Fishing, beaches, boating, bird watching, all fit in quite nicely here. The beer / wine and hubbub are on the other side of the bridge.
Needless to say we are keeping an eye on Jose. The hope (for us) is that it stays out to sea when this far south. I've got family and a lot of friends in New England so I'm not wishing it on them either. My hope is that if it does swing this way we will have enough warning to hook up and get out.
Bob
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09-15-2017, 05:21 PM
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#17
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Thanks Bob.
Jose seems to be working his way east a bit.
The high waves expected from the top 1/2 of Jose, with strong easterly winds, have started to arrive at NDBC Station 41048, which is 240 NM west of Bermuda:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41048
In the line item for Wave Height, if you click on the chart icon on the left, this chart will open up:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT
As you can see, the action since yesterday morning has seen a steady increase from about 7' to 15' with further increases probable overnight IMO.
A combined plot of wind speed, gusts and air pressure:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT
Buoy 41002, 225 NM south of Cape Hatteras, is not showing much wave height action yet, but tomorrow morning may show an increase from tonight's 6' level:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT
Unfortunately Buoy 41001 150 NM east of Cape Hatteras went adrift a few weeks ago, so there will be no wave height data from this area:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001
Station 44088 off Virginia Beach is close to shore, but will be a good one for you to watch, uncle bob:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44088
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT
This evening the wave heights are a steady 5-6'.
Stay safe!
Peter
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09-15-2017, 07:59 PM
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#19
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Half a Rivet Short
2017 30' Classic
2022 Interstate 24X
Carlisle
, Pennsylvania
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 15,675
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Hi
We didn't bring the kayaks on this trip. One thing about this park - it's on the Chesapeake rather than the Atlantic side of the peninsula, If we do get nutty waves, that would help a bit. Storm surge I have no illusions about. Even with boats, the park was once a ferry terminal. The boat launch still retains a lot of that structure including the breakwall. If you ever *had* to pull a boat out in nasty conditions this would be a much better place to do it than many I've used.
Local news here isn't getting very excited yet. The VA emergency management guys have started running "do you know where your shelter is?" ads.
No afterburners and no helicopters at all tonight. They must get Friday's off .....
Bob
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09-16-2017, 01:39 AM
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#20
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Jose's projected tracks moved a bit eastward overnight, and Buoy 41002 south of Cape Hatteras shows increased wave heights of 10' or so, up from the 5-6' range yesterday:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT
Buoy 44088 east of Virginia Beach has not broken up from its range, but looks like it started moving in that direction overnight. [Links in Post #17]
Guessing you will be fine at the state park's location for a spell yet.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Ki...!4d-75.9809899
That is a nice stretch of driving on The Eastern Shore, with great seafood available north of you.
Have a good weekend
Peter
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