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Old 09-11-2017, 07:46 PM   #1
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Hurricane Jose

Good time to start watching Hurricane Jose, which has been elevated to Category 2.

Here is the same Mike's Weather page with tons of links:

http://spaghettimodels.com/

The projected paths are wide and varied, but it is helpful to consider all the possibilities IMO:

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/im...plots/storm_12

which is considered Storm 12 here:

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/...ne-model-plots

The Additional Information button on the top right of this page leads to an explanation of of the various computer models being plotted.





The National Hurricane Center cone forecast is here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2...?cone#contents

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Old 09-11-2017, 08:13 PM   #2
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Hi

Let's hope that the European models (other than UK Met) are the correct ones. They pretty much let the US off the hook on this one. Not sure what will happen in Newfoundland. It's still pretty soon to make any guesses there. If it swings towards Virginia early /mid next week, I'll let you know what it looks like as it goes over the campsite

Bob
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Old 09-12-2017, 07:33 AM   #3
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Since the chart in the first post updates constantly, for the record the NVGM, which is a Navy tracking model apparently, is about 1 degree longitude off of Cape Hatteras IMO, or about 60-ish statute miles. My impression is that it was further off the coast yesterday.

TBD
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Old 09-12-2017, 09:33 AM   #4
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Hi

Unless my geography has taken a significant hit, I can't think of a much better place for it to just be spinning in circles right now. As long as it's going nowhere, that suggests there isn't a lot of horsepower to drag another storm into the area.

Bob
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Old 09-13-2017, 10:00 AM   #5
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The 11:51 update to the map now has the NYGM line further east of Cape Hatteras, but coming right over eastern Long Island, then continuing up into New England. The various TV station forecasters have been saying that Jose will probably do quite a bit of wandering in the next few days, as various Highs and Lows travel eastward just north of Jose, in the open ocean.

Still looking like mainland US will not get anything, but, like the Hurricane of 1938, New England including Cape Cod should continue to monitor Jose IMO.

Peter

PS -- From the Additional Information at the sfwmd site:

"NVGM - NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM)"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navy_G...onmental_Model
https://www.google.com/search?q=NVGM...utf-8&oe=utf-8
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Old 09-14-2017, 04:13 AM   #6
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As the days go on, the various models are starting to suggest that Jose should go well east of Cape Hatteras. [Maps in first post]

Cape Cod and the Canadian Maritime Provinces, however, could receive a glancing blow IMO.

"Surf's Up" may be heard up and down the east coast!

Wave heights forecast:

http://static.baynews9.com/images/wx...eights_atl.jpg

Peter
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Old 09-14-2017, 02:24 PM   #7
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The 16:21 update has the tracks coming together, Jose moving closer to NC, and aiming for LI and New England, before turning out to sea.

We shall sea!
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Old 09-15-2017, 02:42 AM   #8
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Alert for Cape Hatteras to Nova Scotia

Overnight the projections for Jose's path have taken a decided turn to the west and north, with Long Island and New England now having a much better chance of taking a hit from this storm IMO. The eye may pass well to the east of Cape Hatteras, but the wind and wave action could be severe, all the way to Nova Scotia. [Maps in Post #1 update automatically]

Cape Hatteras could start feeling the action as early as Sunday evening, with the eye forecast to be directly east by Monday night.

As the winds rotating counter-clockwise approach from the south, extreme high tides in Long Island Sound are a real possibility, as are the tides in the greater NYC "bight" which flooded terribly in Sandy.

Stay safe!

Peter

PS -- Links for tracking:

http://spaghettimodels.com/

Other models' tracks: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stor...efs_latest.png

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Old 09-15-2017, 04:37 AM   #9
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Cape Hatteras could start feeling the action as early as Sunday evening, with the eye forecast to be directly east by Monday night.
According to the US Navy's "Hurricane Havens Handbook," the Cape Hatteras area gets nailed by more hurricanes than anywhere else in the United States, having been affected by 194 tropical storm events (of which 130 of them were hurricanes) in the 127 years for which records have been published.

Those aren't all direct strikes, just storms passing close enough, within approximately 180 miles, so that number includes storms that never officially make landfall because the eye stayed offshore, but still caused high winds, heavy rains, and storm surges at Cape Hatteras.

Cape Hatteras is populated by three types of people: hurricane veterans, hurricane veterans in training, and tourists.
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Old 09-15-2017, 05:07 AM   #10
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Great oceanfront camping there too, with the next month or two being the best time of year.
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Old 09-15-2017, 10:24 AM   #11
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Hi

Been to Cape Hatteras a number of times and it's a fine place to go. We're just slightly further north from there right now. We'll see how this all works out ..... Clear blue sky in the morning with clouds building to rain in the afternoon has been the pattern so far.

Now if I could just get the F/A-18's fly a slightly different pattern ....

Bob
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Old 09-15-2017, 10:28 AM   #12
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Hi

Been to Cape Hatteras a number of times and it's a fine place to go. We're just slightly further north from there right now. We'll see how this all works out ..... Clear blue sky in the morning with clouds building to rain in the afternoon has been the pattern so far.

Now if I could just get the F/A-18's fly a slightly different pattern ....

Bob
You must be near PAX River?
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Old 09-15-2017, 12:09 PM   #13
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Or NAS Oceana in Virginia Beach? I stayed at a large CG there in the 90's on the way back north after buying our old 25' and the jets were part of the landscape.

Bob can you recommend any campgrounds, as we are thinking of heading south later this fall.

Thanks,

Peter

PS -- Jose's possible tracks appear to have moved east during the day. The maps in earlier posts update here with each revision at their source locations, amazingly!
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Old 09-15-2017, 12:29 PM   #14
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Now if I could just get the F/A-18's fly a slightly different pattern ....

Bob
Amazing how perspectives can be different!

Send them my way. Having been an F-14 backseater, I would be happy to be under their flight path. My wife, maybe not so much.

Fly Navy!
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