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Old 09-19-2017, 04:42 AM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DreamStreamr View Post
Peter, the National Park campgrounds are gorgeous on the Outer Banks. We stayed throughout September several years ago. Dry camping all, the campgrounds have cold showers and toilets. Weren't crowded either. Then $45 ferry ride from Ocracoke to historic Beaufort NC. We're ready to do it again next year.
Thanks, Jim, we made a similar trip back in the 90's with the old 25' and had a great time.

Peter
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Old 09-19-2017, 04:49 AM   #44
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Tides and storm surge in Long Island Sound

Here are the three most important charts to monitor over the next week, as Jose passes to the SE of eastern LI, and sends his easterly winds westward right up Long Island Sound. During SuperStorm Sandy, these tidal levels went off the charts, so to speak, and caused incredible flooding. In the Hurricane of 1938, Providence RI was inundated with a storm surge which killed many folks, as there was no forecasting system like there is today.

The green Residual line is the one to watch, as it tracks the overall difference between the forecast tidal level, and the actual level. Please note that tides are already running about a foot above normal, and the wind action overnight has been quite benign IMO. The next 24-48 hours could be startling IMO.

Both LI Sound and Narragansett Bay [Providence RI at north end], are basically "dead end streets" for wind and tidal action. Put a baking pan full of water on the counter, and lift up one corner a couple of inches. That mass of water spilling out of the far corner of the pan is "storm surge" in a nutshell.

Stay safe folks!

Peter






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Old 09-19-2017, 11:59 AM   #45
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Hi

Jose appears to be passing due east of us at this time. There's been a little rain, but not a lot. I'd call it more drizzle than downpour. We get some crazy wind gusts from time to time, but not alarming here in the trailer. Certainly not anything that's got the trees doing weird stuff. I *am* very glad I'm not in a tent right now !!!!

We just had the Coast Guard go over headed for the Atlantic side. I'd bet somebody out there isn't doing very well ... hope they wind up safe ...

Bob
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Old 09-19-2017, 12:22 PM   #46
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Thanks for the feedback Bob. I bet the ocean side there is wild! According to the chart in Post #28, the wave heights just offshore of Virginia Beach are up to 18' . . . wow . . .

As of the NHC 2 PM update, Jose's forward progress has slowed down to 7 MPH, and the projected arrival at different locations rolled back:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2...?cone#contents




Meanwhile in the Caribbean, Maria's destruction is so profound that I have been avoiding the television coverage.


Prayers . . .
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Old 09-19-2017, 02:32 PM   #47
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Hi

Still have some pretty good wind gusts going here. Not a lot of rain. The trees are beginning to show some degradation from the wind. Nothing broken off yet, but headed that way. It's not just the strength .... duration also matters.

The SOB next door just figured out the hard way that this is to much wind for his awning. Looks like a latch popped rather than major damage. Needless to say he's not in a talkative mood at the moment.

There are new campers showing up each hour !!

Bob
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Old 09-19-2017, 05:36 PM   #48
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Just noticed that your local tides got up to 2' above normal recently [Post #21], and the ocean tides in Wachapreague were 3' above normal [Post #29]. They both appear to be winding down.
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Old 09-20-2017, 07:16 AM   #49
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Just noticed that your local tides got up to 2' above normal recently [Post #21], and the ocean tides in Wachapreague were 3' above normal [Post #29]. They both appear to be winding down.
Hi

Well, oddly enough, I can confirm visually that this happened at that time. One of the dog's towed me way out to the end of the pier about then. As he messed around, I went over and took a look at a bunch of stuff sitting there. Hmmm.... I know what that is and this is and why a L1/L2 Trimble GPS on a pier .. hmmmm ... Yup, it's the buoy we've been watching. It's actually a bunch of gear there just about on the shore. Dog then decided he needed to check out the beach. He changed his mind as the waves came up over the grass ....

Crazy stuff !!

Bob
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Old 09-21-2017, 03:34 AM   #50
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Good one! Thanks.

Are you leaving before Maria comes up your way? Incredible damage in Puerto Rico, I am sorry to say.

Safe home.

Peter
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Old 09-21-2017, 03:54 PM   #51
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Bob,

This animated loop suggests that leaving the DelMarVa Peninsula by Monday may be a wise idea IMO:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...oop?#wcontents

Jose coming back down from the NE, as Maria makes her way up the coast. Might be quite a dance?

Safe travels.

Peter
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Old 09-22-2017, 07:48 AM   #52
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Hi

I think we have exhausted the set of things to do around here for now. We are heading out on Sunday. I just saw a set of models on the news here that puts Maria right over our heads come mid next week ... no need to hang around for that either


Bob
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Old 09-25-2017, 03:13 AM   #53
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Hurricane Mariah following Jose's path north

Amazingly, the same buoys that tracked Jose north are also showing Mariah's similar journey toward Cape Hatteras.

Starting with Post #20, it is possible to see the charts active again, because they update each time you load a page here. For instance, the wave heights at Buoy #41002, 225 NM south of Cape Hatteras, got up to 23' last night:





Here is a quote from that post -- just click on the arrow in the quote to go there and see subsequent charts as Mariah plows north. Hopefully she will turn eastward as forecast.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
Jose's projected tracks moved a bit eastward overnight, and Buoy 41002 south of Cape Hatteras shows increased wave heights of 10' or so, up from the 5-6' range yesterday:
. . .
Post #17 has many other links of relevant buoys and other resources.

Stay safe!

Peter
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Old 09-25-2017, 03:20 AM   #54
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Hurricane Maria

PS -- This NHC forecast cone for Maria should also update here over the next few days:

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Old 09-26-2017, 08:01 AM   #55
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Hi

Well, this all is *much* easier to watch from the easy chair at home

Hopefully the track(s) will all stay out to sea. I think we have had enough hurricane excitement for one year !!!

Bob
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