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Old 09-17-2017, 04:23 AM   #29
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PS -- Just up the peninsula from you, on the ocean side, is Station WAHV2 8631044 in Wachapreague VA, and this chart will also be good to watch today, as the effects from Jose will be more pronounced on the ocean side, as opposed to the tide station down the street from you on the Chesapeake Bay side: [Edit -- Check out the photo of the actual tidal station -- kind of a cute rustic shack on an old pier in a tidal wetlands slough IMO -- click on photo for a larger version.]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=wahv2
https://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plo...n_info=8631044





PS2 -- All the charts are being updated early this morning, and the forecast tracks seem to be moving further eastward:

http://spaghettimodels.com/

Stay safe!

Peter
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Old 09-17-2017, 09:16 AM   #30
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Hi

Lots of data to watch. So far there does not seem to be anything too alarming in the data. We have a bit more overcast today than yesterday. The AC is much happier. There also is a bit more breeze, but nothing bothersome. The flock of pink flamingo's on the next trailer over are still doing fine as well .... Thanks for all the links !!!

Bob
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Old 09-17-2017, 09:39 AM   #31
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Welcome! My guess would be that you could stay there for a week or so, unless Maria comes up the coast.

Prayers for the Virgin Islands . . . already decimated by Irma . . .



How about some photos of the pink flamingos?





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Old 09-17-2017, 10:30 AM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
Welcome! My guess would be that you could stay there for a week or so, unless Maria comes up the coast.

Prayers for the Virgin Islands . . . already decimated by Irma . . .



How about some photos of the pink flamingos?





Hi

The damage in the Caribbean and the Keys is indeed massive. I don't intend any of this talk about my situation to trivialize that. If anybody takes it that way, I apologize.

At this point the question on Jose seems to be it's impact on the US east coast. That is looking less and less dramatic as the days tick away. There is the rather weird case of yet another loop and return. I'm not quite sure what the record for that sort of thing is in the Atlantic.

------

The flamingo's packed up with the SOB a little bit ago. Check out is 1 PM so some people are packing up. We're off to shop for vital storm supplies ..... somehow the wine bottle opener has gone missing

Bob
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Old 09-17-2017, 04:47 PM   #33
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Jose is getting pretty close to Buoy 41048, 240 NM west of Bermuda. [links in Post #17]

This wind/gust and air pressure chart should shift gears when the eye passes to the north of this location, probably overnight.




The wave height is up to 22' and rising.

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Old 09-17-2017, 05:15 PM   #34
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NOAA has posted satellite imagery of various areas which sustained damage:

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/irma/index.html

If you are familiar with a certain location, you can zoom in to the green shaded areas which have new data. Note that St. John USVI, just to the west of Tortola in the British VI, is very brown, when normally it would be a deep green.

Irma's damage to the forests is going to take many many years to heal.

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Old 09-17-2017, 06:11 PM   #35
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Hi

The local news here is not at all nutty about Jose. If anything they are pretty laid back about it. There are still the alarms about rip tides. They are tempered by surfers who appear to be a bit disappointed in the wave forecasts.

You can't please everybody ....

Bob
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Old 09-18-2017, 05:01 AM   #36
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Based on the charts in recent posts, it looks like the worst is over for your area, although the local surfers should be happy with the wave heights hitting 24' overnight at the buoy west of Bermuda, and 14' east of Virginia Beach. Tides never did much, and the winds at the two tide stations seem to be abating. As you pointed out yesterday, Jose may be doing some wandering in the next few days.

Glad you were able to stay put, bet the CG is pretty empty this morning!

Cheers,

Peter

PS -- Buoy 44017 SW of Montauk on eastern Long Island is starting to show some wave action from Jose. Amazing how efficiently the ocean transfers wave energy over many hundreds of miles. [links in Post #17]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.ph...time_label=EDT
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Old 09-18-2017, 05:30 AM   #37
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PS (Continued):

Waves from Jose are starting to reach us here on Long Island NY. Amazing how efficiently the ocean can transfer wave energy over many hundreds of miles. Buoy 44017 is 23 NM SSW of Montauk at the eastern end of LI. [links in Post #18]

This chart should update over the next few days, and show increased wave heights over the current 6.5' IMO.

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Old 09-18-2017, 08:48 AM   #38
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Hi

The local news is still talking about rip tides, but that's about it. We will get a bit of wind and rain tomorrow. How much, is in the "we'll see" category. Even the max numbers don't sound very dramatic.

The campground has indeed emptied out. It looks like there are about four of us still here. All are tagged for a week. Being the great planners that we all apparently are, everybody is in a small cluster rather than all spread out. Makes it easy when you need to borrow something ....

Bob
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Old 09-18-2017, 05:38 PM   #39
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Hi

Well, it looks like we may need a Maria thread. I was hoping for a bit of a gap after Jose went past. It looks like we may or may not make it to Saturday .... yikes !!! .....

Again, I'm in a *really* good situation compared to the Caribbean. I simply can't imagine how anybody could cope with three big hurricanes in a row.

Right now we have a bit of a breeze (take down the awnings). There are surf warnings up for the Atlantic side. The surfers are *finally* happy. Turns out they love rip tides. Who knew

Bob
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Old 09-18-2017, 07:04 PM   #40
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Bob can you recommend any campgrounds, as we are thinking of heading south later this fall.
Peter, the National Park campgrounds are gorgeous on the Outer Banks. We stayed throughout September several years ago. Dry camping all, the campgrounds have cold showers and toilets. Weren't crowded either. Then $45 ferry ride from Ocracoke to historic Beaufort NC. We're ready to do it again next year.
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Old 09-18-2017, 09:20 PM   #41
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Buoy 44066 75 NM east of Long Beach NJ, is showing the signs of Jose's approach FYI:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44066

Wind gusts up to 24 knots or about 27 MPH:




And wave heights up to 12' with the rate of rise accelerating upward at a good clip!




Fasten seat belts, Long Island!

Cheers,

Peter

PS -- Prayers once again for the Caribbean including Puerto Rico, which Maria will be hitting soon perhaps as a Cat 5 hurricane.
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Old 09-19-2017, 05:26 AM   #42
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The charts in yesterday's posts are showing Jose's approach to the NE well IMO, with the overnight wind/pressure/wave action fitting the forecasts. Very handy that these charts update here in real time!

This moving loop, projecting the 5-day 50-knot wind action [58 MPH], is a good graphic to watch, as it shows Jose's core staying offshore:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...oop?#wcontents

The good news is that the worst winds will apparently remain to the SE of LI.

The bad news is that Jose will be in the perfect position, rotating counter-clockwise, to send incredible easterly winds right up Long Island Sound, toward the west, thereby producing large swells and storm surge as far west as Bridgeport CT and Kings Point LI NY, with more immediate impact on the Montauk tidal station. [see next post for these charts to watch through the weekend, as Jose passes offshore, and maybe wanders around the Atlantic.]

Peter
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