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09-16-2017, 01:57 AM
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#21
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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PS -- There is a tide station right where you are -- KPTV2 8632200:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kptv2
. . . so you can track the water levels to monitor any storm surge in its earliest stages. When the winds start increasing from the east as Jose moves north, this tidal station will be an excellent early warning for your location:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/st...tml?id=8632200 [scroll down for water levels]
Directions to station on pier near you if you want to visit:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/st...200#directions
As Superstorm Sandy approached the greater NYC area in 2012, it was amazing how early the rising tides gave a heads up for the extreme surge which inundated lower Manhattan.
In this chart of the same water level data, the green Residual line is more helpful for tracking the higher low and high tides:
https://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plo...n_info=8632200
As you can see, that green Residual line is at about 0.5' above normal. When it starts moving up uniformly, along with increased winds from the east [the second chart in that link, which shows both wind speed and direction], you will know when to leave. If your route is to the north back to PA, however, you may need some lead time to get to higher ground in Maryland.
Good luck!
Peter
PS -- This water level chart may update here in real time -- not sure:
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09-16-2017, 12:36 PM
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#23
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
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Sure enough, the wave heights at this buoy are now up from 6' to 12-13'. [link above and chart in Post #20]
. . . and the winds are firmly out of the NE in the upper left quadrant of Jose, as he passes to the east of Buoy 41002:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT
Buoy 41048 240 NM west of Bermuda should be the next in line to show some wave height and wind action [links in Post #17]:
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09-16-2017, 02:08 PM
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#24
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Half a Rivet Short
2017 30' Classic
2022 Interstate 24X
Carlisle
, Pennsylvania
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 15,674
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Hi
Still clear blue sky with a few clouds here on the Virginia shore. Absolutely terrific weather. Which has had the normal effect. The campground if filling up .... drat ....
Bob
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09-16-2017, 05:52 PM
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#26
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Wave heights at Buoy 41002, 225 NM south of Cape Hatteras, are up to 16' -- chart in Post #20.
The winds are increasing and air pressure dropping as Jose approaches from the south and east [links in Posts #17 and #20]:
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09-16-2017, 07:35 PM
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#27
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Half a Rivet Short
2017 30' Classic
2022 Interstate 24X
Carlisle
, Pennsylvania
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 15,674
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Hi
We just got our first "beach hazard" posting here about 20 minutes ago. It's the same thing they have been talking about for a couple of days south of here. It just got extended to Cape May NJ.
Bob
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09-17-2017, 02:33 AM
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#28
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Yup, the action at Buoy 44088, just offshore at Virginia Beach, is starting to pick up with wave heights increasing overnight from 6-7' to almost 10'. As the chart below updates automatically during the day, the heights will probably increase IMO.
The good news is that conditions to the south have not worsened overnight. In fact, if you scroll down and check all the charts from Post #17 onward, many of them indicate improving conditions IMO, with Jose now north of those stations.
Buoy 44088 does not have wind/pressure data, but Station CHYV2, at Fort Henry just south of you, does. This combined chart of wind and pressure should also reflect the approach of Jose, with the eye expected to pass well to the east:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chyv2
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT
. . . however its air pressure data is missing:
Bob, the water level chart in Post #21, from the tidal station just down the street from you, appears to show a hint of the green residual line starting to move up as Jose gets closer. This would be the one chart to keep watching today IMO.
Have a good day, Jose!
Peter
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09-17-2017, 03:23 AM
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#29
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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PS -- Just up the peninsula from you, on the ocean side, is Station WAHV2 8631044 in Wachapreague VA, and this chart will also be good to watch today, as the effects from Jose will be more pronounced on the ocean side, as opposed to the tide station down the street from you on the Chesapeake Bay side: [Edit -- Check out the photo of the actual tidal station -- kind of a cute rustic shack on an old pier in a tidal wetlands slough IMO -- click on photo for a larger version.]
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=wahv2
https://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plo...n_info=8631044
PS2 -- All the charts are being updated early this morning, and the forecast tracks seem to be moving further eastward:
http://spaghettimodels.com/
Stay safe!
Peter
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09-17-2017, 08:16 AM
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#30
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Half a Rivet Short
2017 30' Classic
2022 Interstate 24X
Carlisle
, Pennsylvania
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 15,674
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Hi
Lots of data to watch. So far there does not seem to be anything too alarming in the data. We have a bit more overcast today than yesterday. The AC is much happier. There also is a bit more breeze, but nothing bothersome. The flock of pink flamingo's on the next trailer over are still doing fine as well .... Thanks for all the links !!!
Bob
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09-17-2017, 08:39 AM
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#31
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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09-17-2017, 09:30 AM
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#32
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Half a Rivet Short
2017 30' Classic
2022 Interstate 24X
Carlisle
, Pennsylvania
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 15,674
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
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Hi
The damage in the Caribbean and the Keys is indeed massive. I don't intend any of this talk about my situation to trivialize that. If anybody takes it that way, I apologize.
At this point the question on Jose seems to be it's impact on the US east coast. That is looking less and less dramatic as the days tick away. There is the rather weird case of yet another loop and return. I'm not quite sure what the record for that sort of thing is in the Atlantic.
------
The flamingo's packed up with the SOB a little bit ago. Check out is 1 PM so some people are packing up. We're off to shop for vital storm supplies ..... somehow the wine bottle opener has gone missing
Bob
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09-17-2017, 03:47 PM
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#33
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Jose is getting pretty close to Buoy 41048, 240 NM west of Bermuda. [links in Post #17]
This wind/gust and air pressure chart should shift gears when the eye passes to the north of this location, probably overnight.
The wave height is up to 22' and rising.
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09-17-2017, 04:15 PM
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#34
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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NOAA has posted satellite imagery of various areas which sustained damage:
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/irma/index.html
If you are familiar with a certain location, you can zoom in to the green shaded areas which have new data. Note that St. John USVI, just to the west of Tortola in the British VI, is very brown, when normally it would be a deep green.
Irma's damage to the forests is going to take many many years to heal.
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09-17-2017, 05:11 PM
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#35
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Half a Rivet Short
2017 30' Classic
2022 Interstate 24X
Carlisle
, Pennsylvania
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 15,674
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Hi
The local news here is not at all nutty about Jose. If anything they are pretty laid back about it. There are still the alarms about rip tides. They are tempered by surfers who appear to be a bit disappointed in the wave forecasts.
You can't please everybody ....
Bob
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09-18-2017, 04:01 AM
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#36
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Based on the charts in recent posts, it looks like the worst is over for your area, although the local surfers should be happy with the wave heights hitting 24' overnight at the buoy west of Bermuda, and 14' east of Virginia Beach. Tides never did much, and the winds at the two tide stations seem to be abating. As you pointed out yesterday, Jose may be doing some wandering in the next few days.
Glad you were able to stay put, bet the CG is pretty empty this morning!
Cheers,
Peter
PS -- Buoy 44017 SW of Montauk on eastern Long Island is starting to show some wave action from Jose. Amazing how efficiently the ocean transfers wave energy over many hundreds of miles. [links in Post #17]
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.ph...time_label=EDT
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09-18-2017, 04:30 AM
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#37
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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PS (Continued):
Waves from Jose are starting to reach us here on Long Island NY. Amazing how efficiently the ocean can transfer wave energy over many hundreds of miles. Buoy 44017 is 23 NM SSW of Montauk at the eastern end of LI. [links in Post #18]
This chart should update over the next few days, and show increased wave heights over the current 6.5' IMO.
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09-18-2017, 07:48 AM
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#38
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Half a Rivet Short
2017 30' Classic
2022 Interstate 24X
Carlisle
, Pennsylvania
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 15,674
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Hi
The local news is still talking about rip tides, but that's about it. We will get a bit of wind and rain tomorrow. How much, is in the "we'll see" category. Even the max numbers don't sound very dramatic.
The campground has indeed emptied out. It looks like there are about four of us still here. All are tagged for a week. Being the great planners that we all apparently are, everybody is in a small cluster rather than all spread out. Makes it easy when you need to borrow something ....
Bob
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09-18-2017, 04:38 PM
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#39
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Half a Rivet Short
2017 30' Classic
2022 Interstate 24X
Carlisle
, Pennsylvania
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 15,674
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Hi
Well, it looks like we may need a Maria thread. I was hoping for a bit of a gap after Jose went past. It looks like we may or may not make it to Saturday .... yikes !!! .....
Again, I'm in a *really* good situation compared to the Caribbean. I simply can't imagine how anybody could cope with three big hurricanes in a row.
Right now we have a bit of a breeze (take down the awnings). There are surf warnings up for the Atlantic side. The surfers are *finally* happy. Turns out they love rip tides. Who knew
Bob
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09-18-2017, 06:04 PM
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#40
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Rivet Master
2005 25' International CCD
Fleetwood
, North Carolina
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 687
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
Bob can you recommend any campgrounds, as we are thinking of heading south later this fall.
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Peter, the National Park campgrounds are gorgeous on the Outer Banks. We stayed throughout September several years ago. Dry camping all, the campgrounds have cold showers and toilets. Weren't crowded either. Then $45 ferry ride from Ocracoke to historic Beaufort NC. We're ready to do it again next year.
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