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Old 09-15-2017, 02:25 PM   #15
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2007 22' International CCD
Corona , California
Join Date: Jul 2013
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Hurricane Jose

You haven't heard loud until you have been in 'Vulture's Roost' while an F-4J is turning up for s fully loaded cat shot on the Starboard bow catapult. Nothing like all 4 stages of afterburner on a pair of engines at full power. At a point, you can no longer hear it--just feel the vibration in your body...

I'm totally amazed I still have decent hearing nowadays...40+ years later!

USS Ranger, CVA-61 at the time.

Blackshoe Navy veteran.
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Old 09-15-2017, 04:43 PM   #16
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2017 30' Classic
Carlisle , Pennsylvania
Join Date: May 2017
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Hi

We're at Kiptopeke State Park which is indeed just a short distance from NAS Oceana. It's also pretty close to Langley so the 10 PM afterburners were necessarily Navy. I'm pretty darn sure they weren't Bubba's souped up truck.

The campground here is very nice. The staff is super attentive to keeping things running right and picked up. The sites are a bit wide open, but there are a few with some shade. There are a number of very flat sites. There are a couple in the "don't try that" category lumps and bumps wise .... don't ask how I know

Things to do wise, this is pretty laid back. If you are into wineries and craft beer, not your spot. Fishing, beaches, boating, bird watching, all fit in quite nicely here. The beer / wine and hubbub are on the other side of the bridge.

Needless to say we are keeping an eye on Jose. The hope (for us) is that it stays out to sea when this far south. I've got family and a lot of friends in New England so I'm not wishing it on them either. My hope is that if it does swing this way we will have enough warning to hook up and get out.

Bob
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Old 09-15-2017, 06:21 PM   #17
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Long Island , New York
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Thanks Bob.

Jose seems to be working his way east a bit.

The high waves expected from the top 1/2 of Jose, with strong easterly winds, have started to arrive at NDBC Station 41048, which is 240 NM west of Bermuda:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41048

In the line item for Wave Height, if you click on the chart icon on the left, this chart will open up:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT

As you can see, the action since yesterday morning has seen a steady increase from about 7' to 15' with further increases probable overnight IMO.

A combined plot of wind speed, gusts and air pressure:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT

Buoy 41002, 225 NM south of Cape Hatteras, is not showing much wave height action yet, but tomorrow morning may show an increase from tonight's 6' level:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT

Unfortunately Buoy 41001 150 NM east of Cape Hatteras went adrift a few weeks ago, so there will be no wave height data from this area:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001

Station 44088 off Virginia Beach is close to shore, but will be a good one for you to watch, uncle bob:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44088
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT

This evening the wave heights are a steady 5-6'.


Stay safe!

Peter
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Old 09-15-2017, 06:42 PM   #18
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PS -- This map lets you find other buoys in the system, by navigating up/down and L/R via the yellow arrows on the map edges:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Southeast.shtml

For instance Buoy 44008, 54 NM southeast of Nantucket, will give us an idea of how close Jose's wave effects are getting to the shoreline in the greater NYC Bight from NJ to Cape Cod (on a large-ish scale):

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44008
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT

Buoy 44017, 23 NM SSW of Montauk Point, will be an early warning lookout for us on Long Island:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44017
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT

. . . as will the MTKN6 tide station at Montauk:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=mtkn6
Graph: https://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plo...+Montauk%2C+NY


Cheers,

Peter
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Old 09-15-2017, 08:59 PM   #19
Half a Rivet Short
 
2017 30' Classic
Carlisle , Pennsylvania
Join Date: May 2017
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Hi

We didn't bring the kayaks on this trip. One thing about this park - it's on the Chesapeake rather than the Atlantic side of the peninsula, If we do get nutty waves, that would help a bit. Storm surge I have no illusions about. Even with boats, the park was once a ferry terminal. The boat launch still retains a lot of that structure including the breakwall. If you ever *had* to pull a boat out in nasty conditions this would be a much better place to do it than many I've used.

Local news here isn't getting very excited yet. The VA emergency management guys have started running "do you know where your shelter is?" ads.

No afterburners and no helicopters at all tonight. They must get Friday's off .....

Bob
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Old 09-16-2017, 02:39 AM   #20
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Jose's projected tracks moved a bit eastward overnight, and Buoy 41002 south of Cape Hatteras shows increased wave heights of 10' or so, up from the 5-6' range yesterday:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT




Buoy 44088 east of Virginia Beach has not broken up from its range, but looks like it started moving in that direction overnight. [Links in Post #17]


Guessing you will be fine at the state park's location for a spell yet.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Ki...!4d-75.9809899

That is a nice stretch of driving on The Eastern Shore, with great seafood available north of you.

Have a good weekend

Peter
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Old 09-16-2017, 02:57 AM   #21
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PS -- There is a tide station right where you are -- KPTV2 8632200:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kptv2

. . . so you can track the water levels to monitor any storm surge in its earliest stages. When the winds start increasing from the east as Jose moves north, this tidal station will be an excellent early warning for your location:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/st...tml?id=8632200 [scroll down for water levels]

Directions to station on pier near you if you want to visit:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/st...200#directions

As Superstorm Sandy approached the greater NYC area in 2012, it was amazing how early the rising tides gave a heads up for the extreme surge which inundated lower Manhattan.

In this chart of the same water level data, the green Residual line is more helpful for tracking the higher low and high tides:

https://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plo...n_info=8632200

As you can see, that green Residual line is at about 0.5' above normal. When it starts moving up uniformly, along with increased winds from the east [the second chart in that link, which shows both wind speed and direction], you will know when to leave. If your route is to the north back to PA, however, you may need some lead time to get to higher ground in Maryland.

Good luck!

Peter

PS -- This water level chart may update here in real time -- not sure:

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Old 09-16-2017, 12:45 PM   #22
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Looks like Jose may have passed near Buoy 41047, 350 NM ENE of Nassau Bahamas, around midnight last night:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT





This location is roughly 1/2 way between Nassau Bahamas and Bermuda IMO:

https://www.google.com/maps/@29.0033.../data=!3m1!1e3

. . . which looks correct in terms of Jose's path to-date.

Maximum gusts of 60 knots which is about 70 MPH. Low pressure of just over 29". Wave heights of 20' :




[More in next post.]
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Old 09-16-2017, 01:36 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
. .
Buoy 41002, 225 NM south of Cape Hatteras, is not showing much wave height action yet, but tomorrow morning may show an increase from tonight's 6' level:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT
. . .
Sure enough, the wave heights at this buoy are now up from 6' to 12-13'. [link above and chart in Post #20]

. . . and the winds are firmly out of the NE in the upper left quadrant of Jose, as he passes to the east of Buoy 41002:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT




Buoy 41048 240 NM west of Bermuda should be the next in line to show some wave height and wind action [links in Post #17]:


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Old 09-16-2017, 03:08 PM   #24
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Hi

Still clear blue sky with a few clouds here on the Virginia shore. Absolutely terrific weather. Which has had the normal effect. The campground if filling up .... drat ....

Bob
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Old 09-16-2017, 03:23 PM   #25
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Or the new campers have been checking the forecast maps, all of which seem to keep budging Jose further out to sea IMO. You can watch it here:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-animated.gif

Have a good weekend.

Peter
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Old 09-16-2017, 06:52 PM   #26
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Wave heights at Buoy 41002, 225 NM south of Cape Hatteras, are up to 16' -- chart in Post #20.

The winds are increasing and air pressure dropping as Jose approaches from the south and east [links in Posts #17 and #20]:



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Old 09-16-2017, 08:35 PM   #27
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2017 30' Classic
Carlisle , Pennsylvania
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Hi

We just got our first "beach hazard" posting here about 20 minutes ago. It's the same thing they have been talking about for a couple of days south of here. It just got extended to Cape May NJ.

Bob
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Old 09-17-2017, 03:33 AM   #28
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Yup, the action at Buoy 44088, just offshore at Virginia Beach, is starting to pick up with wave heights increasing overnight from 6-7' to almost 10'. As the chart below updates automatically during the day, the heights will probably increase IMO.

The good news is that conditions to the south have not worsened overnight. In fact, if you scroll down and check all the charts from Post #17 onward, many of them indicate improving conditions IMO, with Jose now north of those stations.





Buoy 44088 does not have wind/pressure data, but Station CHYV2, at Fort Henry just south of you, does. This combined chart of wind and pressure should also reflect the approach of Jose, with the eye expected to pass well to the east:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chyv2
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT

. . . however its air pressure data is missing:





Bob, the water level chart in Post #21, from the tidal station just down the street from you, appears to show a hint of the green residual line starting to move up as Jose gets closer. This would be the one chart to keep watching today IMO.

Have a good day, Jose!

Peter
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