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Old 09-04-2017, 06:20 AM   #1
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Hurricane Irma

It seems like a good time to start tracking Irma, as the risks for the entire East Coast appear to be growing. Here is a great collection of click-able sites all on one page:

http://spaghettimodels.com/

Overnight, the forecast track has been dropped down to go close to St. John, and continue west toward southern Florida and Cuba:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1...?cone#contents
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stor...cks_latest.png

The various models show a risk for the entire Southeast IMO:

http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guida...NS.png?8695221

We have plenty of time to prepare, including moving to higher ground, and laying in supplies like water, batteries, and so forth. Even here in NY, Irma is on our radar screen, as Sandy and other storms have come up our way with devastating consequences.

Good luck to all of the Caribbean islands, Bahamas, and southern Florida . . .

Peter

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Old 09-04-2017, 07:36 AM   #2
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Way too many spaghetti strands in that spaghetti model plot. More is not always better, adding clutter rather than clarity.

Thinning it down to the 20 historically most accurate models, the extended plot shows Irma making landfall in the US somewhere between Pensacola and Cape Hatteras as a Cat3, with Key West/Miami being the target of the average track, possibly as early as Saturday evening. Of course, as more information becomes available the spaghetti model tracks could change…


And here is a Tropical Storm Preparedness Guide for those who want it:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/hurricane...Cyclones11.pdf
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Old 09-04-2017, 08:18 AM   #3
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I realize it may seem odd, but the APP Pennsylvania Weather Alerts has a nice section under "other" that is tracking IRMA using both the European and US models. It has been changing rapidly and most recent check had it hitting southern FL and moving directly up thru the state of FL. The storm has the potential to be extremely dangerous. I have a Meteorology degree and although like my other degrees never used it, I do have some yet to be retired friends in the business both private and government and those I've contacted this AM are focusing on a FL strike, but from there all say "who knows". A suggestion for anyone living on the Atlantic or Gulf coasts watch every source you can from tomorrow on as this storm defines itself and start preparing now. Storm surge, flooding, tornadoes and wind in that order. I was living 100 yards off the beach when Hurricane Camille hit the Mississippi gulf coast in 1969, you don't want to be like I was and hang around.

UPDTAE: Just spoke to a "weather person" flying out of Keesler AFB, my old base and was told that barometric pressure recorded very early this morning was 947 Millibars, as a point of reference the lowest ever recorded for an Atlantic based storm was I think Wilma at 888 Millibars. What all this means is the IRMA is dangerous and growing. Take preparations now.

Be Safe

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Old 09-04-2017, 08:51 AM   #4
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Looks like my trip to South Carolina next week might get rained out...
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Old 09-04-2017, 09:42 AM   #5
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Hi

If you watch the way the models have been progressing, there has been a continual shift to the west over the last few days. It's still way to early to have much confidence in what will happen once the storm makes it to Cuba. That said, I would not want to be in south Florida this weekend ..... This looks like it's going to be a big storm wherever it hits.

Bob
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Old 09-04-2017, 10:07 AM   #6
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Yes, I've been watching Irma all week. I keep waiting for the turn north, and it hasn't happened.
Living in Florida http://spaghettimodels.com/ is my go to tropical weather site. If it's not there, you don't need it.

Just my luck, I'm scheduled to pick up the new 26 in South Florida this Friday. Rest assured, I'm watching like a hawk.

I well remember Hurricane Charlie (2004?) that was scheduled to score a direct hit on western Florida, chased me all over the state, and thankfully missed my house.
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Old 09-04-2017, 10:08 AM   #7
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Makes plans to bug out today, reservations and such. I will be watching closely but planned to head north no later than Thursday.
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Old 09-04-2017, 10:29 AM   #8
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A reminder, while the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center track storms by where the eye is located, feeder bands can extend more than 200 miles out from the eye. When Harvey was in the Houston area, New Orleans was getting heavy rain from feeder bands.

The best thing about the projected track so far is that the storm appears to pass just north of Cuba (though that may change, of course). Though there are exceptions, most storms that pass north of Cuba don't get very far into the Gulf, meaning that the Houston area is probably not going to see a repeat of last week due to Irma even if the predicted track shifts westward.

Also, the mountains that form the spine of Cuba tend to cause tropical storms to weaken by interrupting the cyclonic flow of wind. Which is why the storm strength track has the storm strengthening to Cat4 over the Caribbean, and weakening back to Cat3 for its projected US landfall.

An interesting resource for data on past storms is the US Navy's "Hurricane Havens Handbook." The Navy has been collecting tropical storm data for key seaports on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts since at least the 1880s. The National Weather Service wasn't even founded until the 1970s, so the Navy has about 90 years more data to work with.. The online version (https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/port_stu...3nc/0start.htm) isn't fully up-to-date for every port. For example, while some ports have data as recent as 2016, New Orleans only has pre-Katrina data, with the last update in 2004. The Handbook lists every tropical storm that passed within 100 miles of each port, up until the last update for that port, 100 miles being the approximate distance from the eye that tropical storm-force winds typically extend.

Following Hurricane Katrina, when New Orleans was just starting to rebuild, data from the Hurricane Havens Handbook was used to help determine the requirements for the new storm protection system. Anyone living near the Atlantic or Gulf coasts may find the data for their nearest seaports to be interesting reading. For instance, again using New Orleans because it's the port I'm most familiar with, since 1886 New Orleans has never been affected by more than 4 tropical storms in any given year, and no more than two of those in any given year have been hurricanes. Though post-Katrina data isn't included in the Handbook, that data is readily available, and that maximum storm frequency still holds true even today.
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Old 09-04-2017, 10:39 AM   #9
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For those of us in east central Florida, the latest forecasted paths indicate that a "shelter in place" may be desirable vs. trying to evacuate several states away.....

Storm surge is what concerns me the most in these monster storms.
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Old 09-04-2017, 11:01 AM   #10
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Camille passed over Cuba, built up in Gulf to Cat 5 by the time it hit MS. On the coast-prepare now.
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Old 09-04-2017, 12:52 PM   #11
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Handy hint for people who may have to evacuate for a tropical storm, who may experience a storm-related power outage, and anyone who travels in an RV…

Freeze a small plastic dish full of water. Place a coin on top of the ice and put it back in your freezer.

Every time you open the freezer, check the coin. As long as it's still on top of the ice, you're good. If the coin is ever INSIDE the ice, that means the ice has thawed and so has all of your frozen food, and it's time to discard everything.

To use this trick in your Airstream, make sure the dish is wider than it is tall so it won't tip over in transit.

I learned this "life hack" long before I owned an Airstream, because in the New Orleans metro area, storm-related power outages are distressingly common. All it takes is a thunderstorm, not even a tropical storm, and the electricity goes out. Now I never have to wonder whether or not the food in my freezer has spoiled, and all it costs is a penny.
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Old 09-04-2017, 01:17 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Protagonist View Post
Freeze a small plastic dish full of water. Place a coin on top of the ice and put it back in your freezer.
Here's a variation on that that I learned from another wise person.
Put a few ice cubes in a ziplock bag in the freezer. If you return and you still have ice cubes, you didn't lose power for long. If you find a glob of ice, power was off for long enough time to thaw and re-freeze when power was restored. If you have a bag of water, well, start pitching what wouldn't keep.

For home, I also fill a couple 2 liter bottles with water and keep them in the freezer. If I lose power, they act as block ice and help keep food frozen longer.

This year, I have a generator, I hope I don't need it next week.
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Old 09-04-2017, 04:10 PM   #13
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Irma has just been upgraded to a Category 4 hurricane, with winds of 130 MPH and gusts up to 160 MPH, after a hurricane hunter aircraft made a pass through the storm a few hours ago.

Stay safe!

Peter
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Old 09-04-2017, 04:14 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mollysdad View Post
. . .
Just my luck, I'm scheduled to pick up the new 26 in South Florida this Friday.
. . .
I imagine you have seen this, but the FL west coast could have tropical force winds by Friday evening, with Irma to dance into town within a day or two. After all the time waiting for your new Airstream, the following suggestion may seem crazy, but . . .

. . . have you considered delaying your acceptance of the AS until after Irma passes?

This would put the risk of physical damage on the dealer.

Just a thought, don't shoot the messenger!

Good luck,

Peter




http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...ble_toa_34.png
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