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Old 09-06-2017, 08:08 AM   #57
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We are in the western Florida Panhandle right on the coast. We are watching Irma very closely. As of this morning's reports, it would appear most likely that Irma will make a turn to the north and go up the east coast of Florida. Most of our family is in the Jacksonville area. Many of them are now planning to come over here. If the storm comes into the Gulf of Mexico and heads to the panhandle, we plan to take Lucy and head out. Depending on the storm's path, we may head east to Jacksonville, but are ready to hook up and go. Fred, the truck, is full of fuel and has a 400 mile range,

We are prepared Lucy is ready to travel with food and provisions on board. Even if we stay here, Lucy will be utilized for living accommodations.

Brian
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Old 09-06-2017, 08:27 AM   #58
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Don't wait this is not your usual hurricane !

If your in Florida, now is the time to head northwest about 800 miles.
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Old 09-06-2017, 08:31 AM   #59
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Waiting to see means you'll be one of those cars at a standstill on the highway. So ask yourself, where do you want to spend Friday. Idling on the highway or relaxing someplace north?
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Old 09-06-2017, 08:36 AM   #60
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John Donne: Poems "For whom the bell tolls"

"No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend's or of thine own were: any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bells tolls; it tolls for thee."

Not the time or place to be a bell tapper.

Bell Tapper – One who is habitually a few minutes late, especially when relieving the watch.
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Old 09-06-2017, 08:46 AM   #61
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For those in the Florida peninsula who want to wait to bug out for Irma, let me offer this blast from the past:

I evacuated for Hurricane Katrina less than 24 hours before landfall. I got caught in evacuation traffic from people fleeing New Orleans, a metro area with less than a million people. From New Orleans to Jackson, Mississippi is 180 miles. In evacuation traffic, it took me 9 hours (!) to get there in contraflow traffic*, and when I got there I had no choice but to keep moving because there was no place to stay. That's an average speed of 20mph, and getting in-town fuel economy rather than highway fuel economy, so a tank of fuel doesn't stretch as far. And that was with people able to scatter both north and west on multiple evacuation routes.

Now imagine the same thing for Irma, with even more people evacuating from the Miami metro area, and Orlando, and every other major population center. And they all have to move well north of their homes on just two major arteries, and get off the peninsula before they can scatter to the northwest. Once you have that picture firmly in mind, please rethink your decision to wait and see.
*Contra-flow: Using southbound traffic lanes for northbound evacuation traffic in order to double the number of lanes available to handle the massive number of people on the road. Contrary to the opinions of planners, does not make traffic flow faster, because there are choke-points where contra-flow ends and all traffic has to merge back into the normal northbound lanes.
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Old 09-06-2017, 09:09 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Protagonist View Post
For those in the Florida peninsula who want to wait to bug out for Irma, let me offer this blast from the past:

I evacuated for Hurricane Katrina less than 24 hours before landfall. I got caught in evacuation traffic from people fleeing New Orleans, a metro area with less than a million people. From New Orleans to Jackson, Mississippi is 180 miles. In evacuation traffic, it took me 9 hours (!) to get there in contraflow traffic*, and when I got there I had no choice but to keep moving because there was no place to stay. That's an average speed of 20mph, and getting in-town fuel economy rather than highway fuel economy, so a tank of fuel doesn't stretch as far. And that was with people able to scatter both north and west on multiple evacuation routes.

Now imagine the same thing for Irma, with even more people evacuating from the Miami metro area, and Orlando, and every other major population center. And they all have to move well north of their homes on just two major arteries, and get off the peninsula before they can scatter to the northwest. Once you have that picture firmly in mind, please rethink your decision to wait and see.
*Contra-flow: Using southbound traffic lanes for northbound evacuation traffic in order to double the number of lanes available to handle the massive number of people on the road. Contrary to the opinions of planners, does not make traffic flow faster, because there are choke-points where contra-flow ends and all traffic has to merge back into the normal northbound lanes.
Hi

Yes, this is not a nice picture. This storm is not a nice picture. Sorry about that.

Imagine the greater Miami metro area all hopping in their vehicles and heading for Atlanta come some time tomorrow or Friday. Pile that on top of the entire rest of the coast doing the same thing at the same time. There just aren't enough roads or enough gas to make that a pretty sight. With a bunch of gulf refineries offline or just getting back online gas is not a simple thing to come up with ....

Bob
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Old 09-06-2017, 09:15 AM   #63
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A word on fuel around Atlanta

I've just been on the web looking at a couple of local news sites. There are no reports there of fuel shortages at the moment, but keep in mind that the flow of fuels from the Gulf refineries is lower than normal because of Harvey.

Gas has been running about 50 cents a gallon more than normal since Harvey hit. We went up to Asheville to visit our daughter and her family this past weekend. Fuel was available up and and back, but prices were high. If we get a large influx of folks into/thru Atlanta, fuel may become a problem.

Not trying to scare anybody, just something to think about.

Jim

On Edit: Looks like Bob and I had the same thought at about the same time. Safe travels everybody.
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Old 09-06-2017, 09:56 AM   #64
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I'm in Tampa and likely staying. This morning's spaghetti models had it going up the Fl. East coast then into S.C.
Since I have my Honda generator, I figure I might need to keep the power on to the refrigerator if we lose power.

A friend just called me from I-75 north of Tampa. He said where I-75 and the Fla. Turnpike meet is a parking lot. Lots of traffic moving north, many with campers. I'm sure many from Miami and the keys are scram-a-vioux
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Old 09-06-2017, 10:30 AM   #65
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Traffic Status

Google Maps, Traffic layer shows lots of Red and Orange already.
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Old 09-06-2017, 10:42 AM   #66
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I'm in Tampa and likely staying.
If we haven't been able to change your mind so far, I guess there's no point trying anymore. You won't get storm surge where you are, but you will get rain and wind, and lots of both. Forget the spaghetti plot. This wind speed forecast from the National Hurricane Center is more pertinent to you, and only likely to show worse as the storm gets closer:


I for one will be eagerly watching AirForums as the storm unfolds for word of how well— or God forbid, how poorly— you came through the storm.
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Old 09-06-2017, 10:48 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by Mollysdad View Post
I'm in Tampa and likely staying. This morning's spaghetti models had it going up the Fl. East coast then into S.C.
Since I have my Honda generator, I figure I might need to keep the power on to the refrigerator if we lose power.

A friend just called me from I-75 north of Tampa. He said where I-75 and the Fla. Turnpike meet is a parking lot. Lots of traffic moving north, many with campers. I'm sure many from Miami and the keys are scram-a-vioux
Hi

If you are likely to depend on the generator, go fill up every gas can you have now. I doubt you can find any more gas cans in the store so I would not bother to go shopping for any.

Next step is to clean out the fridge and freezer of anything that doesn't need to be there (... hmmm .... wonder when this went in here ... hmmm....). If you have more than one freezer or fridge, try to consolidate everything vital in a single unit. Pack up whatever empty space you have with supplies first and ice / water second. The tighter packed it is, the longer it will stay cold. Much better to do all this sorting and moving while you still have power. I *do* have empirical data on that last part ....

Note: The ten cases of beer, while a "vital" supply, is not something that *has* to stay cold .... It can go in the second fridge .... just saying ....

If you are staying, now is the time to connect with the neighbors. If things get crazy, knowing who is hunkered down and who is gone will make things marginally easier.

Bob
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Old 09-06-2017, 11:08 AM   #68
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If we haven't been able to change your mind so far, I guess there's no point trying anymore.
Remember hurricane Matthew? We were supposed to get tropical force winds here. Now I live in a neighborhood with lots of trees, so I'm sheltered, but while I was reading about 50mph wind gusts, my trees were moving as if the wind was 15mph which it was.

I recall one year seeing The Weather Channel's, Jim Cantore doing a live shot from the Gandy Bridge. It was the usual water flying onto his rain gear as he leaned into the weather. "Wait, he's five minutes from me and my trees aren't moving!" So I jumped onto the car and drove down to see him for myself.
Of the four corners of the bridge, he was set up in the one corner where waves hit the seawall and splashed on him.
If he moved 20' he'd have been bone dry. Even the cameraman was dry.

I've also seen the National Hurricane Center lag behind when a storm's track moves. It gets politicized. If the NWS says to evacuate, the NHC won't contradict them. One year they predicted a hurricane to hit New Orleans. Even when every other track predicted it to move to the east into the Florida panhandle, the NHC stubbornly stayed with New orleans. It came ashore in the panhandle, and at the last minute the NHC moved to Florida.

I don't think I've watched the spaghetti models as much as Irma, I'm not stupid. I had a plan to run to friends in SC.
The storm is still east of Puerto Rico and anything can happen, but the latest track shows the storm following more of the Matthew path.

I guess my sailing days got me acclimated to having buckets of water thrown in my face and calling it fun.

Still the greatest tropical weather site ever.
http://spaghettimodels.com
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Old 09-06-2017, 11:10 AM   #69
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I have been trying to find a place to over night on my way to the North Georgia mountains all day. all RV parks are booked already. I am leaving very early Thursday morning and was hoping to find a place to rest along 75 for Thursday night. I am currently in Titusville. really didn't want to drive all the way from Titusville to Helen, GA in one day but it looks like I won't have a choice.
High Falls State Park in not too far south of Atlanta and close to I-75. Try there.
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Old 09-06-2017, 11:28 AM   #70
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Originally Posted by Protagonist View Post
This wind speed forecast from the National Hurricane Center is more pertinent to you, and only likely to show worse as the storm gets closer:
Okay, let's look at your chart. What does it show? It's the probability of tropical force winds (39mph+)
So, I'm in the dark yellow, so I have a 40% chance of tropical force winds. 60% chance that I won't.

Quote:
only likely to show worse as the storm gets closer
Why? as the storm gets closer, and the track moves east, that cone will move with it. As I said a few posts back, with the storm moving north, the winds on the NE side will be the worst, in the atlantic. Thankfully.

If I was in the Turks and Caicos or Puerto Rico, I'd have left days ago. The Bahamas are going to see terrible winds. Haiti and the Dominican Republic may be spared the worst, but construction is shoddy at best. I wouldn't want to be there.

Good news! My Viair 400RV is waiting to be picked up at WalMart! I may fight my way there, and see if there's a five gallon gas can left.
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