Hurricane Irma

[Protagonist]

For those in the Florida peninsula who want to wait to bug out for Irma, let me offer this blast from the past:

I evacuated for Hurricane Katrina less than 24 hours before landfall. I got caught in evacuation traffic from people fleeing New Orleans, a metro area with less than a million people. From New Orleans to Jackson, Mississippi is 180 miles. In evacuation traffic, it took me 9 hours (!) to get there in contraflow traffic*, and when I got there I had no choice but to keep moving because there was no place to stay. That's an average speed of 20mph, and getting in-town fuel economy rather than highway fuel economy, so a tank of fuel doesn't stretch as far. And that was with people able to scatter both north and west on multiple evacuation routes.

Now imagine the same thing for Irma, with even more people evacuating from the Miami metro area, and Orlando, and every other major population center. And they all have to move well north of their homes on just two major arteries, and get off the peninsula before they can scatter to the northwest. Once you have that picture firmly in mind, please rethink your decision to wait and see.

*Contra-flow: Using southbound traffic lanes for northbound evacuation traffic in order to double the number of lanes available to handle the massive number of people on the road. Contrary to the opinions of planners, does not make traffic flow faster, because there are choke-points where contra-flow ends and all traffic has to merge back into the normal northbound lanes.

[uncle_bob]

Originally Posted by Protagonist

For those in the Florida peninsula who want to wait to bug out for Irma, let me offer this blast from the past:

I evacuated for Hurricane Katrina less than 24 hours before landfall. I got caught in evacuation traffic from people fleeing New Orleans, a metro area with less than a million people. From New Orleans to Jackson, Mississippi is 180 miles. In evacuation traffic, it took me 9 hours (!) to get there in contraflow traffic*, and when I got there I had no choice but to keep moving because there was no place to stay. That's an average speed of 20mph, and getting in-town fuel economy rather than highway fuel economy, so a tank of fuel doesn't stretch as far. And that was with people able to scatter both north and west on multiple evacuation routes.

Now imagine the same thing for Irma, with even more people evacuating from the Miami metro area, and Orlando, and every other major population center. And they all have to move well north of their homes on just two major arteries, and get off the peninsula before they can scatter to the northwest. Once you have that picture firmly in mind, please rethink your decision to wait and see.

*Contra-flow: Using southbound traffic lanes for northbound evacuation traffic in order to double the number of lanes available to handle the massive number of people on the road. Contrary to the opinions of planners, does not make traffic flow faster, because there are choke-points where contra-flow ends and all traffic has to merge back into the normal northbound lanes.

Hi

Yes, this is not a nice picture. This storm is not a nice picture. Sorry about that.

Imagine the greater Miami metro area all hopping in their vehicles and heading for Atlanta come some time tomorrow or Friday. Pile that on top of the entire rest of the coast doing the same thing at the same time. There just aren't enough roads or enough gas to make that a pretty sight. With a bunch of gulf refineries offline or just getting back online gas is not a simple thing to come up with ....

Bob

[Jim & Susan]

I've just been on the web looking at a couple of local news sites. There are no reports there of fuel shortages at the moment, but keep in mind that the flow of fuels from the Gulf refineries is lower than normal because of Harvey.

Gas has been running about 50 cents a gallon more than normal since Harvey hit. We went up to Asheville to visit our daughter and her family this past weekend. Fuel was available up and and back, but prices were high. If we get a large influx of folks into/thru Atlanta, fuel may become a problem.

Not trying to scare anybody, just something to think about.

Jim

On Edit: Looks like Bob and I had the same thought at about the same time. Safe travels everybody.

[Mollysdad]

I'm in Tampa and likely staying. This morning's spaghetti models had it going up the Fl. East coast then into S.C.
Since I have my Honda generator, I figure I might need to keep the power on to the refrigerator if we lose power.

A friend just called me from I-75 north of Tampa. He said where I-75 and the Fla. Turnpike meet is a parking lot. Lots of traffic moving north, many with campers. I'm sure many from Miami and the keys are scram-a-vioux

[james.mileur]

Google Maps, Traffic layer shows lots of Red and Orange already.

[Protagonist]

Originally Posted by Mollysdad

I'm in Tampa and likely staying.

If we haven't been able to change your mind so far, I guess there's no point trying anymore. You won't get storm surge where you are, but you will get rain and wind, and lots of both. Forget the spaghetti plot. This wind speed forecast from the National Hurricane Center is more pertinent to you, and only likely to show worse as the storm gets closer:


I for one will be eagerly watching AirForums as the storm unfolds for word of how well— or God forbid, how poorly— you came through the storm.

[uncle_bob]

Originally Posted by Mollysdad

I'm in Tampa and likely staying. This morning's spaghetti models had it going up the Fl. East coast then into S.C.
Since I have my Honda generator, I figure I might need to keep the power on to the refrigerator if we lose power.

A friend just called me from I-75 north of Tampa. He said where I-75 and the Fla. Turnpike meet is a parking lot. Lots of traffic moving north, many with campers. I'm sure many from Miami and the keys are scram-a-vioux

Hi

If you are likely to depend on the generator, go fill up every gas can you have now. I doubt you can find any more gas cans in the store so I would not bother to go shopping for any.

Next step is to clean out the fridge and freezer of anything that doesn't need to be there (... hmmm .... wonder when this went in here ... hmmm....). If you have more than one freezer or fridge, try to consolidate everything vital in a single unit. Pack up whatever empty space you have with supplies first and ice / water second. The tighter packed it is, the longer it will stay cold. Much better to do all this sorting and moving while you still have power. I *do* have empirical data on that last part ....

Note: The ten cases of beer, while a "vital" supply, is not something that *has* to stay cold .... It can go in the second fridge .... just saying ....

If you are staying, now is the time to connect with the neighbors. If things get crazy, knowing who is hunkered down and who is gone will make things marginally easier.

Bob

[Mollysdad]

Originally Posted by Protagonist

If we haven't been able to change your mind so far, I guess there's no point trying anymore.

Remember hurricane Matthew? We were supposed to get tropical force winds here. Now I live in a neighborhood with lots of trees, so I'm sheltered, but while I was reading about 50mph wind gusts, my trees were moving as if the wind was 15mph which it was.

I recall one year seeing The Weather Channel's, Jim Cantore doing a live shot from the Gandy Bridge. It was the usual water flying onto his rain gear as he leaned into the weather. "Wait, he's five minutes from me and my trees aren't moving!" So I jumped onto the car and drove down to see him for myself.
Of the four corners of the bridge, he was set up in the one corner where waves hit the seawall and splashed on him.
If he moved 20' he'd have been bone dry. Even the cameraman was dry.

I've also seen the National Hurricane Center lag behind when a storm's track moves. It gets politicized. If the NWS says to evacuate, the NHC won't contradict them. One year they predicted a hurricane to hit New Orleans. Even when every other track predicted it to move to the east into the Florida panhandle, the NHC stubbornly stayed with New orleans. It came ashore in the panhandle, and at the last minute the NHC moved to Florida.

I don't think I've watched the spaghetti models as much as Irma, I'm not stupid. I had a plan to run to friends in SC.
The storm is still east of Puerto Rico and anything can happen, but the latest track shows the storm following more of the Matthew path.

I guess my sailing days got me acclimated to having buckets of water thrown in my face and calling it fun.

Still the greatest tropical weather site ever.
http://spaghettimodels.com

[Someday'59]

Originally Posted by kendrick.l.j

I have been trying to find a place to over night on my way to the North Georgia mountains all day. all RV parks are booked already. I am leaving very early Thursday morning and was hoping to find a place to rest along 75 for Thursday night. I am currently in Titusville. really didn't want to drive all the way from Titusville to Helen, GA in one day but it looks like I won't have a choice.

High Falls State Park in not too far south of Atlanta and close to I-75. Try there.

[Mollysdad]

Originally Posted by Protagonist

This wind speed forecast from the National Hurricane Center is more pertinent to you, and only likely to show worse as the storm gets closer:

Okay, let's look at your chart. What does it show? It's the probability of tropical force winds (39mph+)
So, I'm in the dark yellow, so I have a 40% chance of tropical force winds. 60% chance that I won't.

only likely to show worse as the storm gets closer

Why? as the storm gets closer, and the track moves east, that cone will move with it. As I said a few posts back, with the storm moving north, the winds on the NE side will be the worst, in the atlantic. Thankfully.

If I was in the Turks and Caicos or Puerto Rico, I'd have left days ago. The Bahamas are going to see terrible winds. Haiti and the Dominican Republic may be spared the worst, but construction is shoddy at best. I wouldn't want to be there.

Good news! My Viair 400RV is waiting to be picked up at WalMart! I may fight my way there, and see if there's a five gallon gas can left.

[runswithdogs]

Lauri,

Here's a few ideas for you...

Stone Mountain Park's campground
Fort Yargo State Park near Winder

The campgrounds on Lake Lanier...many are Army Corps properties:

https://lakelanier.com/activities/camping/

Don Carter State Park (on that list) is new-ish and often seems to have availability.

On the SW side of the metro area is Chatthoochee Bend State Park. Never crowded... and nice!

http://gastateparks.org/ChattahoocheeBend

Also, if you're a Harvest Host member, I believe that Chateau Elan near Braselton is a host.

Let us know if we can help further!

[uncle_bob]

Originally Posted by Mollysdad

.....
Good news! My Viair 400RV is waiting to be picked up at WalMart! I may fight my way there, and see if there's a five gallon gas can left.

Hi

I have a couple of extra 5 gallon cans sitting unused in the garage if you want to stop by here I picked them up about three months after the last big snow scare .... that's how long it took them to re-stock ....

If Walmart is out of gas cans, there's always West Marine ... hang on to your wallet ....Nice looking 29 gallon model with wheels, only $499 ... YIKES !!!!

Bob

[crispyboy]

In October 2016 we stayed one night at General Coffee State Park in southern Georgia. This park is near the bottom of Georgia. The campground host said the week prior during Hurricane Matthew the place was packed beyond full. Each site had at least two campers doubled up and tents covered any bare ground that could be found. Those of you looking for campsites better go early. I would consider skipping the interstate and hitting the two lane roads.

[james.mileur]

Originally Posted by Mollysdad

I guess my sailing days got me acclimated to having buckets of water thrown in my face and calling it fun.

Still the greatest tropical weather site ever.
http://spaghettimodels.com

Hoo yah sailing days, where if you weren't getting wet, you weren't having fun.

Keep us posted for your location this weekend and we'll keep y'all in prayers.

[Protagonist]

Originally Posted by Mollysdad

Okay, let's look at your chart. What does it show? It's the probability of tropical force winds (39mph+)
So, I'm in the dark yellow, so I have a 40% chance of tropical force winds. 60% chance that I won't.

That's just the chance of having those winds in the next 5 days. As the storm advances, the chance of having those winds, or stronger, is likely to go up because the plot will show 5 days from the date and time of the prediction and the storm will be closer to you by then.

You're missing the point of the exercise. Look at the width of the purple swath, extending from the current position of Irma to 5 days along the track. Then look at the width of the Florida peninsula. When the storm reaches your latitude, you're likely to be inside the purple swath, or very close to it, if the track touches land before it reaches your latitude.

But like I said, if you're not already convinced to leave, trying to convince you now is pointless. I give up. Do as you will, and I wish you all the luck in the world. But I will have no sympathy if your luck deserts you after so many people have advised you to leave and you ignore us all.

[Mollysdad]

Originally Posted by Protagonist

I give up. Do as you will, and I wish you all the luck in the world. But I will have no sympathy if your luck deserts you after so many people have advised you to leave and you ignore us all.

Don't take it personally.
I'll let you know if I chose wisely, or poorly.

[Protagonist]

Originally Posted by Mollysdad

Don't take it personally.
I'll let you know if I chose wisely, or poorly.

Not taking it personally, exactly. Just acknowledging the existence of someone even more stubborn than me, that's all.

I had my hurricane epiphany with Katrina, when I decided almost too late that bugging out well in advance is the better part of valor. The generation before me had their epiphany with Betsy or Camile. Others had theirs with Hugo. Or Sandy. Every stubborn cuss who lives in an area subject to hurricanes needs to have their own epiphany. I just hope that Irma isn't yours.

[Jim & Susan]

Originally Posted by Someday'59

High Falls State Park in not too far south of Atlanta and close to I-75. Try there.

Indian Springs State Park is near there as well. There's also a private campground called Atlanta South RV park just up I-75 from the two of these.

Jim

[james.mileur]

https://fl511.com/map#camera

I-95 isn't looking too bad. Even at the 75 and Turnpike isn't packed, but is red on Google Maps.

[uncle_bob]

Originally Posted by james.mileur

https://fl511.com/map#camera

I-95 isn't looking too bad. Even at the 75 and Turnpike isn't packed, but is red on Google Maps.

Hi

In addition to spaghetti models changing around, we can watch the little ! show up on that map. Get enough accidents and even without the added traffic, things will clog up. It's never a single dimensional problem ....stress manifests in a lot of different ways.

We worry about RV's and the storm. It's a good bet that pretty much everybody with a boat on the coast is more worried than any of us. Toss it on a trailer, head here or there, toss another line over to the dock ... same basic questions in a different context. At least as much stress. Some percentage of them will be on the road headed north.

Has anybody started matching up the tide charts to the track yet?

Bob