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Old 09-05-2017, 09:40 PM   #43
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Just looked at the latest info (9/5/2017, 6pm EST) on Irma. Presently a Cat5, with hurricane-force winds extending 60 miles from the center and tropical storm winds extending 175 miles from the center.

If it helps people make up their minds between bugging out and hunkering down, think of Irma as a 12-mile-wide EF3 tornado inside an EF2 tornado inside a 120-mile-wide EF1 tornado inside a 350-mile-wide EF0 tornado, that will last for days. Because that's basically what it is! You've seen pictures of the devastation an EF3 tornado leaves behind, and they're gone in an hour and are only a mile wide at most.

When Katrina was bearing down on the Gulf Coast— in the dark ages before I owned an Airstream— the satellite image showed that the storm filled the entire Gulf. In my ignorance, I was planning to hunker down. I turned on CNN (or was it Fox? I forget), and the meteorologist likened Katrina to a 200-mile-wide EF3 tornado. Not quite accurate, because based on wind speed the tornado-inside-a-tornado-inside-a-tornado description is more accurate. But the comparison is what convinced me to bug out instead, which I did with no preparation at all on the spur of the moment. And I'm glad I did. I grew up in Southwest Oklahoma, and the idea of a 200-mile-wide tornado scared the crap out of me!
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Old 09-05-2017, 10:12 PM   #44
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Are you going to Helen, GA because that's where you want to be or because you don't think it's safe farther south?
Oh, Top of Georgia Airstream Park? Heck of a good idea. Maybe I'll caravan with you, kendrick.l.j!
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Old 09-05-2017, 10:51 PM   #45
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Call me crazy, but watching the spaghetti models from noon, 5 pm and 11 pm, do I detect a slight trend to the east?
Hurricanes are not perfectly shaped storms. If it's heading north the most dangerous winds and the most rain will be on the NE side. Thats because of the counterclockwise rotation and north movement, winds on the east side are added to the motion, where as on the west side they are subtracted.
I hope it moves east enough that it stays in the Atlantic.
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Old 09-06-2017, 04:48 AM   #46
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Going to Top of Georgia Airstream Park because I am familiar with it, I do think it is far enough North to be safe (certainly safer than staying anywhere in Florida), it is still my home unit, they have hooks ups and it is cheap to stay at.
Protagonist is dead on in his description of what a massive hurricane is like. Regardless of where she makes landfall, Irma is going to devastate Fl. A 200 hundred mile wide tornado won't leave much room to hide in.
I plan on leaving Thursday morning at sunrise but I will be watching all day today and if I start to think it is time to go, then it is time to go. I will be traveling with my 82 year old Mom and my two furkids anyone is welcome to join me under one with one caveat, either lead, follow or get out of my way. PM me if you are going my way.
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Old 09-06-2017, 05:17 AM   #47
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I plan on leaving Thursday morning at sunrise but I will be watching all day today and if I start to think it is time to go, then it is time to go.
Is that to avoid traffic on Friday? I'm just a guy from NJ trying to figure this out. We are leaving for sure no later than Friday morning.
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Old 09-06-2017, 05:29 AM   #48
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ScottinNJ: Just a thought to consider. Many are evacuating due to the recent Harvey landing and subsequent devastation. Therefore, the later one goes, the more likely there will be excessively heavy traffic as well as potential for service stations and even truck stops running short of fuel. Therefore, again my thoughts, the prudent who have made the decision to leave FL might want to consider Thursday as a better option than later. One does not want to be sitting on an interstate if the storm comes your way, nor run out of fuel and be stranded on the side of the road.

Good luck and be safe.

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Old 09-06-2017, 06:04 AM   #49
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Call me crazy, but watching the spaghetti models from noon, 5 pm and 11 pm, do I detect a slight trend to the east?
Hurricanes are not perfectly shaped storms. If it's heading north the most dangerous winds and the most rain will be on the NE side. Thats because of the counterclockwise rotation and north movement, winds on the east side are added to the motion, where as on the west side they are subtracted.
I hope it moves east enough that it stays in the Atlantic.
In my personal opinion, you are way overthinking this . . .

"Go north young man, go north!" [without a trailer]

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Old 09-06-2017, 06:36 AM   #50
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Here is a FORECAST image I just picked up off one of the feeds I monitor. This is now the highly probable path of IRMA as agreed upon by the two big computer forecasts - European and US. When these two sources come together they are more often accurate than not. So, East coast of FL and further north have some planning and possible evacuations to consider, strongly. This is NOT FACT, its a computer generated "guess" based on so many factors in the atmosphere that we as humans would find it difficult to process. But, what this does mean is missing Cuba, continued very strong and dangerous. Be careful.

Bud
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Old 09-06-2017, 07:18 AM   #51
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After seeing what happened with Harvey, I would be headed north now hoping to avoid bad traffic and be able to find gas. Good luck to all and safe travels.
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Old 09-06-2017, 08:00 AM   #52
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I'm in Tampa, and we are staying put. We live in an area that would likely face mandatory evacuation in the event of a direct hit. We'll either head on to my parent's place or the trailer depending on when/where it hits if we had to. Going on the road in this situation is not ideal either.
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Old 09-06-2017, 08:33 AM   #53
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Is that to avoid traffic on Friday? I'm just a guy from NJ trying to figure this out. We are leaving for sure no later than Friday morning.
Leave Thursday, you won't get any sleep Thursday night anyway.
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Old 09-06-2017, 08:47 AM   #54
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Leave Thursday, you won't get any sleep Thursday night anyway.
Just cancelled my stay for Thursday night. We are out of here Thursday morning.
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Old 09-06-2017, 08:51 AM   #55
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Just cancelled my stay for Thursday night. We are out of here Thursday morning.
God speed, you drive slow & safe.
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Old 09-06-2017, 09:02 AM   #56
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I'm in Tampa, and we are staying put. We live in an area that would likely face mandatory evacuation in the event of a direct hit. We'll either head on to my parent's place or the trailer depending on when/where it hits if we had to. Going on the road in this situation is not ideal either.
I disagree. Being on the road early and getting far away is ideal. I don't know where your parents' place is, or your trailer either, but waiting for the predicted strike zone to firm up before going anywhere is recklessly foolish, or foolishly reckless, in my opinion. Given the size and strength of the storm, even if it goes up the east coast of Florida the west coast of Florida is in for a rough time, and vice versa. Unless the predicted path shifts east or west by at least the entire radius of the storm— call it 200 miles in round numbers— it's best to at least get off the peninsula altogether.
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