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Old 09-10-2017, 09:29 AM   #197
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Checking in from Jax-rain, light wind. Power off in our neck of the woods from 0915-1012. I hurried and made a pot of coffee! Daughter here hasn't lost power. Son in Tallahassee prepared. Showers on tap before lights go off again! Mayor just giving notice to shelter in place before bridges close later today. St. Augustine getting pounded with flooding...
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Old 09-10-2017, 12:18 PM   #198
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Hi

I must admit to a massive safety sin. I seem to have lived through it. I *have* pulled out the Coleman stove / backpack stove to make coffee when the power was out. I also can quite distinctly remember my parents "discussing" the same thing when I was maybe 4 years old. Obviously doing this is some sort of a genetic defect. Yes, these days it's a propane powered gizmo. Back then it was full of gasoline ...

Now don't do this at home children .... hmmm .... cup is empty, time to push the button for another cup ....

=====

Boy is this storm moving slow at the moment .... not good ....

Bob
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Old 09-10-2017, 01:03 PM   #199
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I-75 North to I-285 West to I-20 West. I hear east Texas is nice this time of year. Once you get to I-20, it's only about a 12 hour drive.



Jim


East Texas is beautiful this week

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Old 09-10-2017, 01:10 PM   #200
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Hi

I must admit to a massive safety sin. I seem to have lived through it. I *have* pulled out the Coleman stove / backpack stove to make coffee when the power was out. I also can quite distinctly remember my parents "discussing" the same thing when I was maybe 4 years old. Obviously doing this is some sort of a genetic defect. Yes, these days it's a propane powered gizmo. Back then it was full of gasoline ...

Now don't do this at home children .... hmmm .... cup is empty, time to push the button for another cup ....

=====

Boy is this storm moving slow at the moment .... not good ....

Bob


My parents did the same thing the morning after the April 10, 1979 tornado in Wichita Falls, Tx. I walked down the driveway of there roofless house expecting the worst and when I turned the corner there was Dad at 7 a.m. making coffee on the Coleman

Dana
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Old 09-10-2017, 02:47 PM   #201
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We are in Nassau County, just East of Yulee, south of A1A/200. We are doing well at home with less than 2 inches rain so far. The house is shuttered. No major power outage yet. We had made plans to evacuate a few days ago when the track was more to the East, and had reservations at the Spirit of the Suwanee Music Park near Live Oak where we rode out Matthew last year in the AS. But as the forecast changed, we decided to shelter in place and glad we did! Looks like the Suwanee will flood soon, and the park which is heavily wooded is likely to have Hurricane force winds.

Our trailer is tucked away just North across the St Mary's River near the Kings Bay Sub Base in Georgia. Its a nice covered facility. No worries of surge flood there either, at least in this storm. But we may make use of it yet, if we have a prolonged power outage (we were out about two days after Matthew). We will bring it to the house for Generator assisted AC and propane assisted Hot Water showers. While its normally our escape pod, glad we didn't join the hoards in searching for another place to run to, especially up I-75 where gas shortages were common.

Gas is still plentiful here at this exit of I-95 so if you can make it this far you might be OK through Georgia where shortages are common. Good Luck and God Speed to all!
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Old 09-10-2017, 08:31 PM   #202
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We drove from Chattanooga to Kentucky today and saw LOTS of Florida license plates headed up this way.

Glad to hear it's not as awful as they had anticipated. hoping it stays that way. Stay safe everyone.
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Old 09-10-2017, 09:29 PM   #203
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Hi

If it keeps over land, it will stay "less crazy" (unless you are in Orlando). If it decides to head out over water, all sorts of surprises could occur. Still running 948 mb. It's not over until it's over .....

Bob
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Old 09-11-2017, 05:56 AM   #204
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The storm surge in Naples was less than expected, with the recent high tide about 4-5' above normal.

https://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plo...n_info=8725110

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Old 09-11-2017, 06:04 AM   #205
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The St. Petersburg/Tampa Bay tide station shows the extreme low water level before Irma's eye came by, with the returning water spiking up as we speak. It will be interesting to see how high this gets in the next couple of hours:

https://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plo...n_info=8726520

Hope everyone is safe.

Peter



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Old 09-11-2017, 07:03 AM   #206
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Rain has started at top of georgia. No wind to speak of yet.
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Old 09-11-2017, 09:14 AM   #207
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We've had about .7" of rain and winds are picking up on the south side of Atlanta. Macon reported a gust of 44 mph. News is estimating strongest winds around sunset tonight, maybe 50 mph gusts. Still very mild compared to what happened in Florida.

If you can get WSB radio at TOG, they have good reporting and in 24/7 mode right now. 95.5 FM and 750 AM on radio.

Stay safe everybody.

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Old 09-11-2017, 11:26 AM   #208
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Hi

Something I've wondered about with snow storms as well as hurricanes:

What is the probability model it's based on?

For a lot of things the answer is 50/50. You estimate the "typical" outcome. As part of the babble on TV they just mentioned that they are using 90/10 for a specific forecast. Simply put, it's a 1 in 10 chance it will be as bad as their estimate.

That's nice for a "worst case" kind of thing. It also does not encourage people to trust their forecast after a few cycles. Sort of an interesting game .... Since they almost never tell you if it's 90/10 or 50/50, working out what is what - good luck.

Bob
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Old 09-11-2017, 11:32 AM   #209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uncle_bob View Post
As part of the babble on TV they just mentioned that they are using 90/10 for a specific forecast. Simply put, it's a 1 in 10 chance it will be as bad as their estimate.

That's nice for a "worst case" kind of thing. It also does not encourage people to trust their forecast after a few cycles.
Television news programs aren't there to report the news. They're there to sell advertising for the television station. Reporting the worst case predictions is a way to make people stay tuned in, which allows them to charge more for their advertising because they get more people watching. Reporting the news is just a side effect.

That's why I get my storm news from the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, and Storm Prediction Center, all of which are Government agencies with no vested interest in blowing the situation out of proportion.
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Old 09-11-2017, 11:52 AM   #210
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The water level chart in Post #205 appears to be updating in real time, with the current level being about 2' above the normal low tide at this hour [1 PM EDT] -- see the green Residual line.

It will be interesting to see if the water level will rise more as the tide comes in. The next forecast high tide is around 7 PM tonight, with a higher high due in the morning at around 7 AM. On the west coast of Florida, like the US west coast, the tides are considered diurnal, so only one high tide each day is the highest. In areas with semi-diurnal tides, there are 2 equal high tides [more or less] each day, separated by about 12 hours. [Edit -- Mixed tide is a term which may also apply to St. Pete Tampa Bay, rather than diurnal.]


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The St. Petersburg/Tampa Bay tide station shows the extreme low water level before Irma's eye came by, with the returning water spiking up as we speak. It will be interesting to see how high this gets in the next couple of hours:

https://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plo...n_info=8726520
. . .
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