Hurricane Irma

[Tomzstream]

We are in Nassau County, just East of Yulee, south of A1A/200. We are doing well at home with less than 2 inches rain so far. The house is shuttered. No major power outage yet. We had made plans to evacuate a few days ago when the track was more to the East, and had reservations at the Spirit of the Suwanee Music Park near Live Oak where we rode out Matthew last year in the AS. But as the forecast changed, we decided to shelter in place and glad we did! Looks like the Suwanee will flood soon, and the park which is heavily wooded is likely to have Hurricane force winds.

Our trailer is tucked away just North across the St Mary's River near the Kings Bay Sub Base in Georgia. Its a nice covered facility. No worries of surge flood there either, at least in this storm. But we may make use of it yet, if we have a prolonged power outage (we were out about two days after Matthew). We will bring it to the house for Generator assisted AC and propane assisted Hot Water showers. While its normally our escape pod, glad we didn't join the hoards in searching for another place to run to, especially up I-75 where gas shortages were common.

Gas is still plentiful here at this exit of I-95 so if you can make it this far you might be OK through Georgia where shortages are common. Good Luck and God Speed to all!

[explore more]

We drove from Chattanooga to Kentucky today and saw LOTS of Florida license plates headed up this way.

Glad to hear it's not as awful as they had anticipated. hoping it stays that way. Stay safe everyone.

[uncle_bob]

Hi

If it keeps over land, it will stay "less crazy" (unless you are in Orlando). If it decides to head out over water, all sorts of surprises could occur. Still running 948 mb. It's not over until it's over .....

Bob

[OTRA15]

The storm surge in Naples was less than expected, with the recent high tide about 4-5' above normal.

https://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plo...n_info=8725110

[OTRA15]

The St. Petersburg/Tampa Bay tide station shows the extreme low water level before Irma's eye came by, with the returning water spiking up as we speak. It will be interesting to see how high this gets in the next couple of hours:

https://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plo...n_info=8726520

Hope everyone is safe.

Peter

[SCOTTinNJ]

Rain has started at top of georgia. No wind to speak of yet.

[Jim & Susan]

We've had about .7" of rain and winds are picking up on the south side of Atlanta. Macon reported a gust of 44 mph. News is estimating strongest winds around sunset tonight, maybe 50 mph gusts. Still very mild compared to what happened in Florida.

If you can get WSB radio at TOG, they have good reporting and in 24/7 mode right now. 95.5 FM and 750 AM on radio.

Stay safe everybody.

Jim

[uncle_bob]

Hi

Something I've wondered about with snow storms as well as hurricanes:

What is the probability model it's based on?

For a lot of things the answer is 50/50. You estimate the "typical" outcome. As part of the babble on TV they just mentioned that they are using 90/10 for a specific forecast. Simply put, it's a 1 in 10 chance it will be as bad as their estimate.

That's nice for a "worst case" kind of thing. It also does not encourage people to trust their forecast after a few cycles. Sort of an interesting game .... Since they almost never tell you if it's 90/10 or 50/50, working out what is what - good luck.

Bob

[Protagonist]

Originally Posted by uncle_bob

As part of the babble on TV they just mentioned that they are using 90/10 for a specific forecast. Simply put, it's a 1 in 10 chance it will be as bad as their estimate.

That's nice for a "worst case" kind of thing. It also does not encourage people to trust their forecast after a few cycles.

Television news programs aren't there to report the news. They're there to sell advertising for the television station. Reporting the worst case predictions is a way to make people stay tuned in, which allows them to charge more for their advertising because they get more people watching. Reporting the news is just a side effect.

That's why I get my storm news from the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, and Storm Prediction Center, all of which are Government agencies with no vested interest in blowing the situation out of proportion.

[OTRA15]

The water level chart in Post #205 appears to be updating in real time, with the current level being about 2' above the normal low tide at this hour [1 PM EDT] -- see the green Residual line.

It will be interesting to see if the water level will rise more as the tide comes in. The next forecast high tide is around 7 PM tonight, with a higher high due in the morning at around 7 AM. On the west coast of Florida, like the US west coast, the tides are considered diurnal, so only one high tide each day is the highest. In areas with semi-diurnal tides, there are 2 equal high tides [more or less] each day, separated by about 12 hours. [Edit -- Mixed tide is a term which may also apply to St. Pete Tampa Bay, rather than diurnal.]


[click on arrow in quote to go to that post]

Originally Posted by OTRA15

The St. Petersburg/Tampa Bay tide station shows the extreme low water level before Irma's eye came by, with the returning water spiking up as we speak. It will be interesting to see how high this gets in the next couple of hours:

https://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plo...n_info=8726520
. . .

[Wingeezer]

Wondering if anyone knows whether or not there were any troubles at LYH in Merlbourne?

[OTRA15]

Photos of the destruction are starting to come in. Sunshine Key RV Resort and Marina took a hit:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...mepage%2Fstory

The images from the Virgin Islands are unsettling as well.

Peter

[A W Warn]

My 34' trailer was stored outside ~20 to 30 miles from the eyewall of Irma as it passed through central Florida. A friend who lives there year round rode out the storm nearby. He told me my trailer is still there, apparently not damaged. It did not move in the 100+mph wind. He could not see the condition of the fans and skylights, so I'll be going down to check it myself as soon as electricity is restored and fuel becomes available.

Glad I was not there!

[Jim & Susan]

How did the folks at TOG fair? We had a lot of wind and 5" of rain at our house near Atlanta. Trees down everywhere and power out to 1 million plus customers throughout Georgia.

Jim

[kendrick.l.j]

Jim and Susan, I am staying at TGO, we lost power, therefore no water either. A couple of Trailers got hit by a falling tree. No one hurt. I am giving up on Helen and heading back to AMS tomorrow, at least there is cell coverage, power, water. Friends in Titusville say I have no damage to my home, lucky. There are still a few folks at TGO but from what I have seen and heard, people are making plans to move elsewhere.

[Jim & Susan]

Originally Posted by kendrick.l.j

Jim and Susan, I am staying at TGO, we lost power, therefore no water either. A couple of Trailers got hit by a falling tree. No one hurt. I am giving up on Helen and heading back to AMS tomorrow, at least there is cell coverage, power, water. Friends in Titusville say I have no damage to my home, lucky. There are still a few folks at TGO but from what I have seen and heard, people are making plans to move elsewhere.

Glad to hear nobody was hurt. We live near AMS in McDonough, Ga. In case you need something, send me a PM. Always happy to help a fellow 'Streamer!

Traffic is still rough, BTW. Everybody's headed back down south now. Gas seems to be in good supply around town (at least in the limited places I've been to the last couple days).

Good Luck,

Jim

[Lily&Me]

I saw on the news this morning that WalMart is double matching Red Cross donations made at WalMart stores or on their website.

Maggie

[SCOTTinNJ]

TOG damage. Glad nobody was hurt. We are heading north for a bit.

[Wingeezer]

No from LYH at Melbourne? Guessing they are ok apart from some flooding on John Rhodes Blvd. near Ellis Rd, and maybe elsewhere.

[Mollysdad]

I left Tampa on Saturday morning after seeing the latest track which had the eye just to the east of us. I went to stay with friends in Greenville, S.C. Plan B was to go into the Florida panhandle, but the track was moving west. Traffic northbound on I-75 was moving surprisingly fast.

I left Greenville for home at 11 am yesterday, and arrived just after midnight this morning. Returning, I took I-95 south in Charleston to avoid Atlanta, and I-95 in S.C. was terrible. I'd drive 70 mph for two miles and then 5 mph for two miles. It added 3 hours to my drive. Half the cars had Florida plates.
Then, in Georgia, from Brunswick to the Florida border, all the exits are closed with cones a police car and a National Guard Humvee. YOU MAY NOT EXIT even for gas. In Florida the exits were open, but there's not much gas. I found a truck stop that was doing a booming business when my "Low fuel" light was on.

My home has power although it looks like some two blocks away don't. I have about 50 palm fronds and a million oak twigs in my yard, but the big trees held. My AC was going, and I checked my ziplock bag of ice cubes in the freezer. It had half frozen puddle and half ice cubes. The milk in the fridge didn't spoil. Unbelievable!

Here's what I learned. Molly the dog was fantastic. She slept in the back seat anytime the truck moved and never complained.
It's not easy to lift a 75# dog into the back seat of a truck, I think I'll get a folding dog ramp.
Packing was easy, but taking important papers was hard. I need to organize all that stuff better. Yes, I have a file, but things like dog vaccinations aren't in there (They are now.)
I threw together a few bags of snacks for the drive and hardly touched it.
Once you start moving, the stress was lifted. Waiting and watching was the worst.

My new Airstream is still (I hope) in Ft. Meyers. I was supposed to pick it up Friday, Sept 8. With a storm coming no insurers were writing policies, so I have no idea what happened to it. I'm sure the dealer is busy cleaning up too.

Good to be home.