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Old 09-08-2017, 05:17 PM   #127
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At least the latest track shows Irma degrading to a mere tropical depression by the time it reaches Nashville! The previous forecast track I looked at earlier today showed it as still at tropical storm strength by the time the storm center (it won't be an eye anymore at that point) reaches Nashville.

The track still passes close to Lynchburg, Tennessee, right on the cusp between tropical storm and tropical depression. Let's hope it doesn't affect the production of Jack Daniels!
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Old 09-08-2017, 05:31 PM   #128
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... Let's hope it doesn't affect the production of Jack Daniels!
Hi

YIKES .... where are the truck keys ... how late is the liquor store open ....

I'm not sure I'd place a "can of beer" bet on what happens after the storm gets fairly far inland. That part of it can get really mushy in terms of the models. I'd bet more than a couple cases of beer on just about all of Florida getting real wet and blown around in the next couple of days ....

Local news just had a house on fire and a sink hole devouring a downtown street. No hurricane involved. Some stuff happens even in "normal" conditions....

Bob
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Old 09-08-2017, 05:34 PM   #129
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I'm not sure I'd place a "can of beer" bet on what happens after the storm gets fairly far inland. That part of it can get really mushy in terms of the models.
True, 'dat. I was just trying to inject a bit of humor for stress relief.

In any event, even if the storm hangs together well enough to be tracked, by the time it downgrades from tropical storm to tropical depression, it's really just a bad thunderstorm. But local flooding can still happen even from a bad thunderstorm.
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Old 09-08-2017, 05:41 PM   #130
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Ok, Mollysdad, if you're in Zone A, get out now. We have room in Jacksonville if you can make it
Thanks, I really appreciate that. I'm in zone B. (which might be next) My neighbors are going to a hotel room in Tampa if they leave.
I have the car loaded, along with snacks and dog food.
I have a couple cans of ethanol free that I got for the generator at home, but if I need it, it's going in the tank. Gas stations here have gas but are busy.
I'll decide tomorrow morning, but the latest track has it coming ashore about Ft. Meyers, then going more or less up the middle of the state.
My escape plan is to go up the west coast to Tallahassee (avoiding I-75 if possible, then west on I-10 into the panhandle.)
I see Talladega has also opened the track for campers but I don't think I'll go that far north. I'll decide by noon, that gives me a day ahead of the storm.

While at the grocery, I saw another item that was gone from the shelves...kitty litter???? (sand bags?)

If I had the new Airstream, I'd have left days ago, everything would be easier, except gas. Of course, it's in Ft. Meyers!

FOX NEWS had a traffic cam from I-75 in Tampa, and although it was heavy, it was moving.
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Old 09-08-2017, 05:42 PM   #131
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Pulled into Top of Georgia. Feels like we are far enough away at this point. But will see over next few days.

Stay safe everyone!
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Old 09-08-2017, 05:49 PM   #132
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Hi

Florida governor was just on TV saying that three tankers full of gas docked in Tampa today. Even with that, it's not clear there's enough.

Bob
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Old 09-08-2017, 05:49 PM   #133
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Hi

YIKES .... where are the truck keys ... how late is the liquor store open ....

I'm not sure I'd place a "can of beer" bet on what happens after the storm gets fairly far inland. That part of it can get really mushy in terms of the models. I'd bet more than a couple cases of beer on just about all of Florida getting real wet and blown around in the next couple of days ....

Local news just had a house on fire and a sink hole devouring a downtown street. No hurricane involved. Some stuff happens even in "normal" conditions....

Bob
Oh, maaan.....another shortage.

As far as the inland part of the storm, do a web search on hurricane Opal and himmicane Alberto and "Georgia" in the 1990's. Massive damage in GEORGIA . We were here for both of those. No serious damage to us, but lots of others around us were harmed in one way or another. Took a good long while to clean all that up.

Be safe everybody.

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Old 09-08-2017, 05:57 PM   #134
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The latest cone shows the storm has slowed to 12 mph. (from 17)
Does this mean it's feeling the effects of the low pressure ridge and will start making the turn north?
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Old 09-08-2017, 06:27 PM   #135
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Hi

Florida governor was just on TV saying that three tankers full of gas docked in Tampa today. Even with that, it's not clear there's enough.

Bob
I think if I were the ships captain or the owner of the ships they would pull out tomorrow morning. These ships are pictures taken the day after Hurricane Camille hit the MS Gulf Coast. The crews were on board during the storm, trying to get out of Gulfport MS and left too late. After months of trying to pull them off with Ocean tugs, digging deep trenches they ended up taking them apart for scrap. Someone put the Name Hurricane Camille on the tug. If I remember correctly this boat was about 150 yards inland.
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Old 09-08-2017, 06:30 PM   #136
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The latest cone shows the storm has slowed to 12 mph. (from 17)
Does this mean it's feeling the effects of the low pressure ridge and will start making the turn north?

Possibly, every computer model except one shows it turning north into FL. But the BP is also moved down a bit from this morning. Both the slowing and the slight drop in the BP would tend to indicate a strengthening. Still not the super low of Camille - 900mb or of the 1935 Labor Day storm of 888, but unfortunately moving in that direction.
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Old 09-08-2017, 06:40 PM   #137
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The latest cone shows the storm has slowed to 12 mph. (from 17)
Does this mean it's feeling the effects of the low pressure ridge and will start making the turn north?
Possibly. But the storm slowing down also means that it will dump a lot more rain on the people under it before it passes by. And the people being rained on will also be pelted by high winds for a longer period.

But the people who waited to the last minute to bug out also got a slight reprieve by the slowdown. The present position 345 miles southeast of Miami means that at 12mph the storm will make landfall in the US approximately 8 hours later than it would have at 17mph. (Yes, I know the 345 miles is a straight-line distance and not the distance along the storm's path. Please ignore that slight difference.)
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Old 09-08-2017, 06:41 PM   #138
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just retired last week, and glad that I did. couldn't handle another storm still working in retail on miami beach. way too much stress. we live in west Pembroke pines. our house was built post Andrew and is built to withstand strong storms. we plan, we prepare, we put up shutters and bring in anything that might blow away. we recently moved the coach to our summer home in Tennessee, so that is safe. we will ride out the storm here, as will all my neighbors. this is what Floridians do. don't way g too much news, as they will scare the hell out of you. gas is hard to come by, as is propane. don't panic, but do be smart.
Congrats on your retirement! Like you, we are natives, and we will stay in Jax. At some point you make up your mind given all the variables and that's that. Our neighbors are staying too.

I was 10 when Dora hit Jacksonville and remember it well- no school and neighborhood cookout on a 55 gallon drum barbecue pit so we didn't lose our perishables. Have been here for all the storms since- a different proposition when you're a property owner!

Yesterday, Doug and I decided to take the Airstream inland to Williston Crossings, southwest of Gainesville- a huge RV/park model park (not sure what to call it, but it's huge and very nice). On the way over, we said, "we may be jumping from the frying pan into the fire". No sooner had that been said and the news came on about the storm taking a westerly turn. So who knows...but it feels better than having it in the driveway under a HUGE pine tree.

Ironically, as we were being escorted to our site, a large branch had just fallen off a water oak and decimated the back end of a trailer. Thankfully, the woman was okay. It was a beautiful sunny day. You just never know. Last year we escaped Matthew there and it was a good decision. This storm is a different story- we probably won't be escaping TO the trailer, but they were expecting 39 trailers today, and they looked jam up and jelly tight yesterday.

Yada, yada, yada-all our family is in Florida. We've decided to stay. They're evacuating the beaches. We're about 20 miles away. We'll get wet for sure, but we'll be ok. Local news tonight said it may just be a tropical storm when it gets to us. We'll see. Thanks for sending good vibes this way!
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Old 09-08-2017, 06:48 PM   #139
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Have been here for all the storms since- a different proposition when you're a property owner!
For Hurricane Isaac, an Airstreamer couple I know towed their Airstream to safety, and then went back home to Braithewaite, LA to ride out the storm at home. They ended up getting rescued off of their roof. So they not only lost their home and all their possessions that weren't in the Airstream, but they lost their tow vehicle, too!

I can understand the appeal of wanting to protect your home and possessions. I remember vividly the weeks I was evacuated for Hurricane Katrina and wondering if I even had a home to return to. I'm not going to fault you for your decision. But for those who haven't made up their minds one way or the other, please allow me to point out that protecting your possessions at the risk of life and limb is not necessarily a good trade-off.
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Old 09-08-2017, 07:01 PM   #140
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We've got the 19 Bambi packed and leaving our waterfront home to go inland ~10 miles to assemble several elderly family members in a single location.

I've filled the Airstream refrig with the contents of our household refrig. Problem is, I currently only have one deep cycle battery as a house battery. Anyone have a guess how long a single battery will operate the refrig while on propane?
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