Hurricane Harvey

[Lily&Me]

I have been to that area several times.

I hope everything is still standing, and everyone got out of harms way.

Maggie

[OTRA15]

The forecast for overnight rain in the greater Houston area is staggering. If you know anyone who lives there who tends to downplay weather forecasts, you might want to urge them to leave their home tonight if they live in an area prone to flooding. 18" of rain may fall in the next 18 hours in some spots.

One inch per hour for 18 hours will overwhelm almost every stream, river, storm drain and pumping station.

Good luck to all . . .

Peter



PS -- FYI Maggie, CNN just broadcast footage from Rockport, and the wind damage is pretty severe, with power still out and emergency services just starting to get organized. Support is coming in from the north, but the roads leading in to town are in rough shape.

[Protagonist]

Originally Posted by OTRA15

One inch per hour for 18 hours will overwhelm almost every stream, river, storm drain and pumping station.

If you've never seen a manhole cover flipped in the air like a tiddly-wink by a geyser of stormwater shooting up out of the hole, count yourself lucky. I've seen it happen twice since I've lived in the New Orleans metro area, back in the early days when I was too inexperienced to understand just how destructive hurricanes can be, and bold/stupid enough to actually drive around hoping to see the damage with my own eyes.

[texasvette]

Harvey is quite the mysterious storm. We are NW of Houston and it only got windy here but we are on the dirty side of the storm. We are supposed to get upwards to 30 inches of rain from the beginning of the storm until possibly Wednesday. Tornados are touching down all around us, just not right on us, thank goodness. We have a small creek behind our back yard that is being watched hourly. It is going to be a tiring few days.

[OTRA15]

Originally Posted by texasvette

Harvey is quite the mysterious storm. We are NW of Houston and it only got windy here but we are on the dirty side of the storm. We are supposed to get upwards to 30 inches of rain from the beginning of the storm until possibly Wednesday. Tornados are touching down all around us, just not right on us, thank goodness. We have a small creek behind our back yard that is being watched hourly. It is going to be a tiring few days.

Please read Post #22 and consider leaving before dark! If your creek has ever flooded your property or streets available for an emergency exit.

Your life is more important than your property and possessions.

Good luck.

Peter

PS -- See the pinwheel action and intense band of rain south and west of Houston?

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/ea...r-radar?play=1

The forecast calls for the eye center of this pinwheel to stall out for the night, and just dump buckets of rain on your area. With the southern end of the system over the Gulf, there is basically an unlimited supply of water vapor available to fuel the rain bands to the north.

A scary set up IMO worthy of deep respect.

R. E. S. P. E. C. T. , remember that tune?

PS2 -- Not sure if you are near Spring Creek, but you might want to monitor this water level all night if you stay at home:

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwisweb/g...00065&period=7

As you can see it jumped up 10' overnight.

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?site_no=08068500

[Mollysdad]

There's a few reasons to stay.
1. You're too poor to go inland.
2. You wait too long, the highways are jammed, and the gas stations are out of gas from the last people who left.
3. You need to protect your stuff from looters.

I've been evacuated in Fla., I went, but strangely, my home never had damage.

[slowmover]

Originally Posted by Protagonist

Once. A couple years ago. I remember eating at Snoopy's Pier, just off the John F. Kennedy Memorial Causeway.I stand corrected about the ground elevations. Multiple online sources cite the 7' value, but I don't know whether they only address the city proper or the entire metro area including suburbs, and those online sources don't indicate where they got that figure. That's the problem with online sources; it's hard to tell if they're authoritative.

Still, even though some neighborhoods may be immune to storm surge, it still surprises me that no mandatory evacuations were called even for low-lying areas. Unless that online information is also in error…

I was thinking it was some sort of average being cited.

CC has good historical reasons for location. Indianola and Galveston were better as to inland distances. But hurricanes have destroyed them several times.

CC is where the US Army was gathered in 1846 to invade Mexico. Wouldn't do to lose costly men, material and horses to an itinerant storm. Even a minor naval battle in the Civil War to stem blockade running.

CC is also home to US Navy & Marine flight training since WWII. US Army has world's largest helicopter repair facility there.

And three of the world's largest oil refineries.

I mention these as CC doesn't appear in American consciousness about the country they live in.

That bluff is vital.

Protagonist, you remind me of some of the associates at the UT Marine Science Center at Port Aransas. That, plus Goose Island and the fall/winter lecture series at the CC Natural History museum might pique your interest. Plenty of retired civil engineers and petroleum specialists of all flavors. Retired Navy as well. They drive good programs at these. CC Bay geology is more than fascinating.

It's not all fishing and hunting (the variety of which in each deserves exploration).

They had a hard enough time getting an Interstate built from San Antonio. Wasn't completed until early 1980s. The airport is modern. In all ways is CC superior to the RGV.

Some of the largest ever offshore oil platforms are finished across the bay at Kiewit. A neighbor had a son who was an MIT naval architect. Size is impressive, complexity is staggering.

CC is about 150-miles south of San Antonio. 220 from Houston on US59. Laredo and the RGV are each a little under 150-miles farther on.

To best understand the CC role in modern times is to bring up a pipeline map of Texas. South Texas is mainly natural gas. The concentration of pipelines from about the CC area on to the 98 petrochemical plants and refineries of the upper Texas Gulf Coast (and on to Lake Charles) defines importance.

Flooding, and soil subsidence will be the real story from hereon out.

Access to the city from the landward side is easy, and the Port (the cities political powerbase since the ship channel was cut in the 1920s) has tremendous capacity. The Texas-Mexican Railroad was established over 140-years ago.

CC may be "quiet", but with the opening of the larger canal lane thru Panama the Port has angled to get some of the scheduled container ship business out of the Houston pollution mess (guess who has 400-lb lobbyists). The problem is distance to American population centers.

So, as to recovery:

There is the city. And Nueces County (plus surrounding), then the State of Texas. Not much to gum up the works. Feds already have a big presence (including a Federal Courthouse).


PS: For those of you looking at Texas maps, 95% of Texans live east of a line extending 50-miles west of IH35. Houston and Dallas are each about seven million, and Austin - San Antonio another three million of twenty million Texans. The rivers all flow from the NW. Bend downwards towards coast. None are major, but all have to handle too much water the next ten days.
.

[Protagonist]

Originally Posted by Mollysdad

There's a few reasons to stay.
3. You need to protect your stuff from looters.

I disagree. Stuff is just stuff, and not worth risking your life to protect it during and immediately after a storm. That's what insurance is for.

If you have irreplaceable stuff of sentimental value, find room in your TV or Airstream to take it with you. The rest of your stuff can fend for itself. And even for the irreplaceable stuff, you CAN do without it if events dictate. Irreplaceable just means "can't be replaced." It doesn't mean "Can't live without it." Hugo, Katrina, Rita, Sandy, and other storms caused people to lose a lot of irreplaceable items. Life went on.

[rmkrum]

My priorities have always been family (humans) then pets, then stuff. Stuff is always optional.

[OTRA15]

texasvette, I just located the Spring Creek forecasted water levels, in case this affects you in Tomball NW of Houston.

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydro...HGX&gage=SPNT2

The water level by Monday evening is projected to be 107.2 -- the all-time record is just slightly higher at 111.6!

This represents a level TWENTY FEET HIGHER than right now. [see links at the bottom of Post #25]

It is difficult to overstate the risk in my opinion.

Stay safe . . .

Peter

PS -- Here is the water level in Tomball, which is already 6' above normal and rising very quickly. Not sure why this chart does not have a forecast included. You still have a ways to go before flood stage, but at least you have another source to consider and monitor:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydro...hgx&gage=tmbt2

Right now the level is at 144.81 for the record.

Originally Posted by texasvette

Harvey is quite the mysterious storm. We are NW of Houston and it only got windy here but we are on the dirty side of the storm. We are supposed to get upwards to 30 inches of rain from the beginning of the storm until possibly Wednesday. Tornados are touching down all around us, just not right on us, thank goodness. We have a small creek behind our back yard that is being watched hourly. It is going to be a tiring few days.

[Mollysdad]

I saw pictures of damage in Rockport, TX, tonight. It was an ariel view of a campground where all the units I saw were fifth wheels on concrete pads. All but one were on their sides, most still had slides out. The one that was upright was pushed off the concrete pad by at least 20'.
Rockport is about where the eye came ashore. Didn't see any tow vehicles, I assume they got out....good for them, what a mess.

[OTRA15]

The water level chart for the Tomball station of the Spring Creek [linked below in the quote] has been updating overnight, and they have added a forecast line. The current water level is now 147.53 [a rise of about 2.5' since last night], and the high water level is forecast to be 161.4 by tomorrow [an additional rise of almost FOURTEEN FEET on top of the water level now]. By tomorrow the creek will officially be in "Minor/Moderate" flood stage according to the colored horizontal bands at the top of the chart.

Hopefully all folks who could be affected by Spring Creek flooding have already moved to higher ground.

This is no joking matter!

Good luck to all.

Peter

Originally Posted by OTRA15

. . .
PS -- Here is the water level in Tomball, which is already 6' above normal and rising very quickly. Not sure why this chart does not have a forecast included. You still have a ways to go before flood stage, but at least you have another source to consider and monitor:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydro...hgx&gage=tmbt2

Right now the level is at 144.81 for the record.

[OTRA15]

PS -- The other Spring Creek water level station near Spring TX has also started to rise rapidly, after leveling off yesterday afternoon for a while. [link in quote below]

Here is the same data with a forecast line included, which has remained stable overnight [but still predicts massive flooding]. The only good news is that the forecast of the bad news has not gotten worse overnight!

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydro...HGX&gage=SPNT2

Originally Posted by OTRA15

. . .
PS2 -- Not sure if you are near Spring Creek, but you might want to monitor this water level all night if you stay at home:

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwisweb/g...00065&period=7

As you can see it jumped up 10' overnight.
. . .

[OTRA15]

In just 2 hours and 39 minutes [since the earlier Post #32 at 4:29 AM EDT], the water level has risen to 151.65', or a net change of FOUR FEET AND TWO INCHES, at the Tomball station on Spring Creek.

The sun is rising in Texas now . . . to a rapidly deteriorating situation NW of Houston IMO.

Also, there is a new line of thunderstorms coming in from the Gulf SW of Houston, which could also have some embedded tornadic activity IMO.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/ea...r-radar?play=1

Prayers for Texas . . . on this Sunday morning.

Originally Posted by OTRA15

The water level chart for the Tomball station of the Spring Creek . . . water level is now 147.53 [a rise of about 2.5' since last night],
. . .

[OTRA15]

The Tomball water level is rising much more quickly than the purple forecast line IMO.

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydro...hgx&gage=tmbt2

In the 51 minutes since the last post at 7:08, the water has risen 1.59' to 153.24' . . . which would project out to about TWO FEET PER HOUR . . .

Chances are quite good that the maximum flood waters predicted for tomorrow's crest at 161.4' will be revised upward IMO. The last update to the forecast line was at 2:06 AM CDT early this morning.

[RandyNH]

Originally Posted by Protagonist

I read on one of the many hurricane-tracking websites— I think it was Weather Underground, or maybe Category 6— that Corpus Christi never called for mandatory evacuations. Which pretty much meant that anyone stubborn enough or inexperienced enough decided to ride out the storm at home.

Those too stubborn to leave don't get much sympathy from me, because they value their homes and property more than they value their lives anyway. But those who lack experience with hurricanes have my condolences. I still remember when I first moved to the Gulf Coast decades ago and had never experienced the destructiveness of a hurricane firsthand before. Learning my lesson was terrifying.

Texas is interesting, only city Mayors and some level of Judge can declare mandatory evacuation (the governor can't), then they interviewed the mayor of Corpus Christi and he said he didn't think the government should be telling people what to do...

Maybe sometimes they should, just to nudge the ones that need nudging.

Best of luck to anyone in that area.

[OTRA15]

Just found this great interactive map from the West Gulf River Forecast Center:

https://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/

After zooming in, you can see Spring Creek running east/west just north of Houston's downtown. It is colored in both blue and grey because it is the county line in this region apparently. The two Spring Creek water level gauges are clearly marked in Tomball and Spring. Almost 1/2 of the locations, in the greater Houston area, are colored purple, which means "Major Flooding."

If you have any friends in Houston, this would be a great resource to tell them about IMO.

FYI

[PeterH-350LE]

Good friends of mine have a house in Rockport and 2 boats in the Rockport Cove harbor dry dock marina.
House is ok , their 5th wheel next to the house is on its side. Condition of boats unknown, since the 2 huge buildings of the marina sustained heavy damage.
They talked their son into leaving the day before, he wanted to ride the storm out.
Here is a video of the Marina operation prior to Harvey, its quite impressive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bXhT_zorJo

and after

[OTRA15]

We saw that marina footage on the news and realized that Rockport got hit hard. Glad your friends are OK.

[PeterH-350LE]

Just across from Rockport towards the Gulf, is sweet little Port Aransas. It took a direct hit as well. We have been going camping there for 40 years. Already had plans to go back this winter.
This is what the mayor said:
PORT ARANSAS, Texas -- No one should consider returning or visiting Port Aransas until further notice given the amount of destruction in the area, the mayor said.The city's police chief told Mayor Charles Bujan the Pioneer Trailer Park, located at 120 Gulfwind Drive, is a "100-percent loss" and a search and rescue operation is underway this Saturday morning. Crews only are beginning to realize the extent of damage as they are just entering city limits.
There is an extensive amount of debris and utility poles down across roadways entering the city.
"We are in the process now of pushing down 361 ... We had to send heavy maintenance equipment in before the police to clear the highway," Bujan said.

http://www.kwtx.com/content/news/Dam...441817903.html