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Old 08-26-2017, 10:39 AM   #15
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I lived in CC until a few years ago. When we moved there I extensively researched the hurricane problem. I never found an advantage in staying. My evac route was towards Laredo and then north on US83 to bypass the Hill Country to the west. I'd seen what happened with Rita and Ike. 12-hrs to get past San Antonio the 140miles from CC.

That said, CC is built on a bluff that is the highest ground from Vera Cruz to Key West. There are areas which won't ever be required to evacuate as storm surge will never reach.

Still have friends and a relative there. And, protagonist, it's possible to be too damned broke to go anywhere.

The eye came in over Rockport, an hour north by road.

Am close to 400-miles north outside Hillsboro and watching same rain as Channing (but I'm at work) pushed up from Gulf.
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Old 08-26-2017, 10:55 AM   #16
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That said, CC is built on a bluff that is the highest ground from Vera Cruz to Key West. There are areas which won't ever be required to evacuate as storm surge will never reach.
The highest elevation in Corpus Christi is just under 7 feet above sea level. Not much of a bluff. Even a Cat 1 hurricane can push a storm surge higher than that. What Corpus Christi does have in its favor is Mustang Island, which does its job as a barrier island to cause storm-driven waves (not surge, which isn't a wave) to break offshore.

Storm surge is the single most destructive component of a hurricane, but hurricanes can also spawn tornadoes, plus you've got torrential rains, wind-driven debris, power outages that can last for days with attendant interruptions in service at water treatment plants and/or contamination of drinking water supplies, downed trees and utility poles that can block emergency services from reaching you, reduced effectiveness of police, fire, and ambulance services because they're over-extended trying to deal with the storm's aftermath…

Calling for evacuations based solely on storm surge impacts is short-sighted in my opinion. But I'm not in Civil Defense, so it's not my call to make.
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Old 08-26-2017, 11:07 AM   #17
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Doesn't sound to me like you've been to Corpus. My house was 15' above and I was across street from former chief city engineer. I've been over the topo maps. We weren't at the high point.

The two bays are shallow as hell, and the islands of limited help depending on storm damage (new channels cut). . Water gets forced in, but is far slower in retreating. Nueces River flow strength a factor. Gets complicated.

CC has extensive storm water runoff or abatement where land slopes.

As I said, no advantage in staying. It's an insurance set of questions AND time out of the house afterwards. But it won't be flooded. High wind damage, yes. Other city areas will flood as they should never have been built up after Carla and Celia. But they were.

Suffice it to say I'm not happy that those I know have stayed. It is indeed the aftermath to beware.

(P.S. Do they still call it Civil Defense? I'm looking at my car radio, but I don't see the symbols above the numbers. Oh, yeah, it's digital. Hmmm)
.
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Old 08-26-2017, 11:29 AM   #18
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Doesn't sound to me like you've been to Corpus.
Once. A couple years ago. I remember eating at Snoopy's Pier, just off the John F. Kennedy Memorial Causeway.
Quote:
My house was 15' above and I was across street from former chief city engineer. I've been over the topo maps. We weren't at the high point.
I stand corrected about the ground elevations. Multiple online sources cite the 7' value, but I don't know whether they only address the city proper or the entire metro area including suburbs, and those online sources don't indicate where they got that figure. That's the problem with online sources; it's hard to tell if they're authoritative.

Still, even though some neighborhoods may be immune to storm surge, it still surprises me that no mandatory evacuations were called even for low-lying areas. Unless that online information is also in error…
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Old 08-26-2017, 12:13 PM   #19
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FYI Google has a Harvey map up already, and you can toggle on/off various info on the right. ["View all layers"]

http://google.org/crisismap/2017-harvey

This map will likely be updated with storm surge data, rainfall, etc. over the next week or two. Google had a similar map for SuperStorm Sandy, but I don't recall it being available online nearly this quickly.

They also paid for aerial recon flights to show Sandy's damage to the barrier beaches of NJ and Long Island NY, which were incredible to see. With the barrier beach in Texas being similar, future aerial or satellite imagery will be interesting to see.

Prayers for all in Harvey's path. The initial TV reporting from places like Rockport shows some bad damage, but nothing like was forecast IMO. Flooding from all the rain may be significant unfortunately.

Cheers,

Peter
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Old 08-26-2017, 02:52 PM   #20
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Most of the weather stations and airport observations went offline last night, so the data is sketchy, but this text report is a doozy, with the Port Aransas area making the top of the Wind Gust list at 132 MPH at 0942 last night:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product....n=3&glossary=1

Rockport reported 108 MPH, and the television images from Rockport show the damage, with one fatality being reported.

As you can see, the lower part of the list shows that the strongest gusts were confined to a fairly narrow band, probably east of the eye as it traveled north IMO. [The "dangerous quadrant."]

Wikipedia has a page already: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurric...ogical_history
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Old 08-26-2017, 03:04 PM   #21
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I have been to that area several times.

I hope everything is still standing, and everyone got out of harms way.

Maggie
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Old 08-26-2017, 04:46 PM   #22
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The forecast for overnight rain in the greater Houston area is staggering. If you know anyone who lives there who tends to downplay weather forecasts, you might want to urge them to leave their home tonight if they live in an area prone to flooding. 18" of rain may fall in the next 18 hours in some spots.

One inch per hour for 18 hours will overwhelm almost every stream, river, storm drain and pumping station.

Good luck to all . . .

Peter



PS -- FYI Maggie, CNN just broadcast footage from Rockport, and the wind damage is pretty severe, with power still out and emergency services just starting to get organized. Support is coming in from the north, but the roads leading in to town are in rough shape.
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Old 08-26-2017, 04:58 PM   #23
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One inch per hour for 18 hours will overwhelm almost every stream, river, storm drain and pumping station.
If you've never seen a manhole cover flipped in the air like a tiddly-wink by a geyser of stormwater shooting up out of the hole, count yourself lucky. I've seen it happen twice since I've lived in the New Orleans metro area, back in the early days when I was too inexperienced to understand just how destructive hurricanes can be, and bold/stupid enough to actually drive around hoping to see the damage with my own eyes.
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Old 08-26-2017, 05:18 PM   #24
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Harvey is quite the mysterious storm. We are NW of Houston and it only got windy here but we are on the dirty side of the storm. We are supposed to get upwards to 30 inches of rain from the beginning of the storm until possibly Wednesday. Tornados are touching down all around us, just not right on us, thank goodness. We have a small creek behind our back yard that is being watched hourly. It is going to be a tiring few days.
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Old 08-26-2017, 05:24 PM   #25
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Harvey is quite the mysterious storm. We are NW of Houston and it only got windy here but we are on the dirty side of the storm. We are supposed to get upwards to 30 inches of rain from the beginning of the storm until possibly Wednesday. Tornados are touching down all around us, just not right on us, thank goodness. We have a small creek behind our back yard that is being watched hourly. It is going to be a tiring few days.
Please read Post #22 and consider leaving before dark! If your creek has ever flooded your property or streets available for an emergency exit.

Your life is more important than your property and possessions.

Good luck.

Peter

PS -- See the pinwheel action and intense band of rain south and west of Houston?

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/ea...r-radar?play=1

The forecast calls for the eye center of this pinwheel to stall out for the night, and just dump buckets of rain on your area. With the southern end of the system over the Gulf, there is basically an unlimited supply of water vapor available to fuel the rain bands to the north.

A scary set up IMO worthy of deep respect.

R. E. S. P. E. C. T. , remember that tune?

PS2 -- Not sure if you are near Spring Creek, but you might want to monitor this water level all night if you stay at home:

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwisweb/g...00065&period=7

As you can see it jumped up 10' overnight.

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?site_no=08068500
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Old 08-26-2017, 05:29 PM   #26
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There's a few reasons to stay.
1. You're too poor to go inland.
2. You wait too long, the highways are jammed, and the gas stations are out of gas from the last people who left.
3. You need to protect your stuff from looters.

I've been evacuated in Fla., I went, but strangely, my home never had damage.
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Old 08-26-2017, 05:31 PM   #27
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Once. A couple years ago. I remember eating at Snoopy's Pier, just off the John F. Kennedy Memorial Causeway.I stand corrected about the ground elevations. Multiple online sources cite the 7' value, but I don't know whether they only address the city proper or the entire metro area including suburbs, and those online sources don't indicate where they got that figure. That's the problem with online sources; it's hard to tell if they're authoritative.

Still, even though some neighborhoods may be immune to storm surge, it still surprises me that no mandatory evacuations were called even for low-lying areas. Unless that online information is also in error…
I was thinking it was some sort of average being cited.

CC has good historical reasons for location. Indianola and Galveston were better as to inland distances. But hurricanes have destroyed them several times.

CC is where the US Army was gathered in 1846 to invade Mexico. Wouldn't do to lose costly men, material and horses to an itinerant storm. Even a minor naval battle in the Civil War to stem blockade running.

CC is also home to US Navy & Marine flight training since WWII. US Army has world's largest helicopter repair facility there.

And three of the world's largest oil refineries.

I mention these as CC doesn't appear in American consciousness about the country they live in.

That bluff is vital.

Protagonist, you remind me of some of the associates at the UT Marine Science Center at Port Aransas. That, plus Goose Island and the fall/winter lecture series at the CC Natural History museum might pique your interest. Plenty of retired civil engineers and petroleum specialists of all flavors. Retired Navy as well. They drive good programs at these. CC Bay geology is more than fascinating.

It's not all fishing and hunting (the variety of which in each deserves exploration).

They had a hard enough time getting an Interstate built from San Antonio. Wasn't completed until early 1980s. The airport is modern. In all ways is CC superior to the RGV.

Some of the largest ever offshore oil platforms are finished across the bay at Kiewit. A neighbor had a son who was an MIT naval architect. Size is impressive, complexity is staggering.

CC is about 150-miles south of San Antonio. 220 from Houston on US59. Laredo and the RGV are each a little under 150-miles farther on.

To best understand the CC role in modern times is to bring up a pipeline map of Texas. South Texas is mainly natural gas. The concentration of pipelines from about the CC area on to the 98 petrochemical plants and refineries of the upper Texas Gulf Coast (and on to Lake Charles) defines importance.

Flooding, and soil subsidence will be the real story from hereon out.

Access to the city from the landward side is easy, and the Port (the cities political powerbase since the ship channel was cut in the 1920s) has tremendous capacity. The Texas-Mexican Railroad was established over 140-years ago.

CC may be "quiet", but with the opening of the larger canal lane thru Panama the Port has angled to get some of the scheduled container ship business out of the Houston pollution mess (guess who has 400-lb lobbyists). The problem is distance to American population centers.

So, as to recovery:

There is the city. And Nueces County (plus surrounding), then the State of Texas. Not much to gum up the works. Feds already have a big presence (including a Federal Courthouse).


PS: For those of you looking at Texas maps, 95% of Texans live east of a line extending 50-miles west of IH35. Houston and Dallas are each about seven million, and Austin - San Antonio another three million of twenty million Texans. The rivers all flow from the NW. Bend downwards towards coast. None are major, but all have to handle too much water the next ten days.
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Old 08-26-2017, 06:39 PM   #28
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There's a few reasons to stay.
3. You need to protect your stuff from looters.
I disagree. Stuff is just stuff, and not worth risking your life to protect it during and immediately after a storm. That's what insurance is for.

If you have irreplaceable stuff of sentimental value, find room in your TV or Airstream to take it with you. The rest of your stuff can fend for itself. And even for the irreplaceable stuff, you CAN do without it if events dictate. Irreplaceable just means "can't be replaced." It doesn't mean "Can't live without it." Hugo, Katrina, Rita, Sandy, and other storms caused people to lose a lot of irreplaceable items. Life went on.
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