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Old 03-03-2009, 08:39 AM   #29
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I hope you are correct, and as a dealer you have forgotten more about this industry than I know. However, and again trying to keep inside information from major sources protected I offer grim news. The single problem will be volume for all over the next 5 years. This whatever it is called recession/depression will have an impact on sales demand for the next 10 years. The graphs and charts I have seen actually put GM at greater risk due its sheer size. GM must reorganize completely. Chrysler can possibly do some snaking around with another european failure , Fiat. That deal looks like a sharing of dealerships in weak markets, but no cash exchange. GM however, in no way, even with optimistic projected market share can support the debt and current operations or proposed changes now being submitted to the government. In an nutshell over capacity will be the end result. Global demand does not justify the current global number of manufactures, and the South Korean boys are killing em. I mean Hyundai is putting the nail in the coffin with the offer to take the car back if your job goes away, even your UAW job!!!!

Now add to the problem of luxury cars such as Saab,Volvo, Bmw, they survived on safety, quality, and brand cache. Its a new era, all that has been equalized by Asian quality and they will have to answer to reduced volumes as well. Most will not be in the states within the next few years and returning back to markets being flooded by the lower cost equally well built vehicles. Its enough for suppliers to start making tough decisions with old friends. This time however, the big guy will be told what the future will be, not the other way around.
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